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This web-page considers the
match-up between the Class D teams at the State Level.
| Nov 12 Update ...
Results of the State Meet
This was a great competition
... I want to congratulate all runners on an extraordinary
performance. I did not realize the incredible performance level
until I calculated the speed ratings ... the top six Beaver River
girls had seasonal-best performances ... as did three runners from
Bronxville (Caroline Mullen, Michelle Rorke and Kate Ogorzaly)
... that is truly remarkable considering the muddy conditions that
slowed many good runners. See the Merged
Team Results for States ... Class D was excellent!
The table below lists the individual
finishing places and speed ratings. The table further below lists
the predicted team scores and actual scores ... I expanded the
predicted list to include teams from additional sections because
runners from some schools wanted to know how I rated them. I
predicted a three point victory for Bronxville over Beaver River ...
the actual margin was five points, but both teams had lower
scores than predicted ... the lower scores are understandable
considering the exceptional individual performances and efforts by
both teams to win!
Special congratulations to
Beaver River's first-year Coach Travis Kuhl for an outstanding job
and to the Beaver River girls being the best Class D team in Section
3 history! And congratulations to Bronxville Coach Jim Mitchell and
the Bronxville team for rising to the challenge. Groton did not have
their best race, but the Groton team is young ... their entire team
returns next year ... I think Coach Scott Weeks will be back next
year with another contending team. |
Speed
Runner School Time Rating
=================== ============== ======= ======
1 Heather Iatauro-9 Tri-Valley 20:06.3 131
2 Lauren Noble-10 Little Falls 20:12.9 129
3 Catha Mullen-10 Bronxville 20:15.1 128
4 Lauren Moser-9 Beaver River 20:15.5 128
6 Caroline Mullen-10 Bronxville 20:20.3 126
7 Julie Emery-8 Beaver River 20:22.2 126
8 Michelle Rorke-11 Bronxville 20:31.4 123
10 Adrienne Gagnier-9 Beaver River 20:37.2 121
12 Danielle Buzzell-12 Beaver River 20:58.1 114
14 Brandey Hurchla-9 Groton 21:06.6 111
15 Heather Roberts-10 Tully 21:19.1 107
16 Melissa Wisner-12 Bronxville 21:19.4 107
17 Erin Yaichuk-11 Groton 21:25.2 105
23 Lynne Vincent-11 Groton 21:37.2 101
24 Becky MacKenzie-9 Groton 21:41.9 99
26 Kate Ogorzaly-11 Bronxville 21:45.1 98
29 Katie O'Konsky-9 Groton 21:50.3 96
30 Kisa Ruiz-10 Beaver River 21:51.0 96
34 Jolene Munger-11 Beaver River 22:04.4 92
35 Annie Scogin-11 Groton 22:04.9 91
37 Jamie Crawford-12 Tully 22:09.8 90
39 Michelle Golden-10 Beaver River 22:11.1 89
41 Karie Gallow-10 Groton 22:18.5 87
49 Helen Millson-9 Bronxville 22:33.4 82
50 Elise Duggan-12 Bronxville 22:45.9 78
|
| State Girls
Class D Team Prediction (11-7-00) |
|
Click
Here for Past Performance Listings
|
Predicted Actual
Team Score Team Score
================== ===== =================== =====
Bronxville 50 Bronxville 34 (Sec 1)
Beaver River 53 Beaver River 39 (Sec 3)
Groton 59 Groton 65 (Sec 4)
Harley Allendale Col 131 Harley Allendale Col 152 (Sec 5)
Rhinebeck 167 Rhinebeck 160 (Sec 9)
Galway 168 Seton Catholic-Platts 161 (Sec 7)
Seton Catholic-Platts 173 Galway 195 (Sec 2)
Shelter Island 192 Norwood Norfolk 200 (Sec 10)
Barker 241 Shelter Island 222 (Sec 11)
Barker 230 (Sec 6)
**Section 10 not included
(I didn't have results)
|
| Analysis: This
is a great race with many possibilities. My computer is tired
... I forced it run nearly half-a-million race simulations of all
types. Bronxville was the winning team in more simulations (44%)
than either Beaver River (38%) or Groton (18%) ... however, the
outcome of this race is very dependent on the performance of
each and every runner. If all teams perform to their maximum speed
ratings, Bronxville has the edge and is likely to win ... but in
closely contested championship races, that rarely happens.
Margin of Error: the
"margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is
approximately six points ... this means that any of the three teams
can win, but Bronxville has a slight advantage.
This race is somewhat similar to the
Section 3 Class Race between Westhill, New Hartford and South
Jefferson. South Jefferson was the least likely of the three
teams to win (according to the computer simulations), but they
accomplished what was required ... Nicole Lister won the race and
their #4 and #5 runners had season-best performances. Based
upon speed ratings alone, Groton does not appear to be a possible
winner of this race ... however, they won various computer
simulations because (a) Brandey Hurchla placed 1st or 2nd amongst
team runners and (b) they were able to place five and even six
runners ahead of either Beaver River or Bronxville's 5th
runner. Bronxville and Beaver River's #5 runners have similar
performances (speed ratings in the low 90s) ... this year, there are
a fair number of runners from other sectional teams close to or
slightly above this level that can have a huge impact on the
final team scores! Groton needs outstanding performances from
all runners (more so than Beaver River and Bronxville).
How the Race Will Be Run:
I find this very interesting because both Beaver River and
Bronxville have groups of runners that go out very fast (they like
to be on or near the lead). I wish the SUNY Utica course was a
better spectator course because the potential competition may be
excellent ... I think l'll be running from point-to-point to witness
this first-hand.
Beaver River is very experienced on
the SUNY Utica course ... they know exactly how to run the course
... this is their advantage that may allow them to become State
Champions. But Bronxville has shown the ability to run on any type
of course ... they run the difficult Westchester CC course extremely
well and did win at Utica earlier in the year (the New Hartford Rain
& Mud Invitational).
I think this race will be very close
... any single runner can be the difference ... Good
Luck To All Teams. (I wish the Tully team could compete
because we really are the 4th best Class D team in the State).
Individual Race:
The top contenders to win the race are Heather Iatauro (Tri-Valley),
Catha Mullen (Bronxville), Brandey Hurchla (Groton), Lauren Noble
(Little Falls) and Sarah
Hildebrand (Harley Allendale Columbia) ... Sarah was last year's
race winner, but any of these girls are capable of winning. |
Nov 5th Update: Groton
easily won the Section 4 Class D race run at Chenango Valley on Nov
2 ... see Scott Week's Groton
Page for details. Groton came to the Section 3 Meet on Saturday
to watch their State Meet competition (the Beaver River girls and Tully
boys) and to get some experience on the Utica course.
Beaver River easily defeated Tully
in the Section 3 Class D race (score of 18 - 50). On this web-site, I
predicted a score of 26 - 39, but this actually included some of my own
"hopes" that several Tully runners could have season-best races
... the unbiased computer simulation yielded a score of 21 - 48. The
Beaver River team is just too talented for us this year. The top
Beaver River runners were Adrienne Gagnier (2nd, 19:52), Lauren Moser
(3rd, 19:55), Danielle Buzzell (4th, 20:05), Julie Emery (5th, 20:20), Michelle Golden (10th, 21:09),
Jolene Munger (13th, 21:34), and Kisa Ruiz (14th, 21:39) ... respective
speed ratings of 118, 117, 113, 108, 92, 84, and 82.
Bronxville easily captured the top
seven places in the Section 1 Class D race contested at Westchester CC on
Nov 3. Top runners were Catha Mullen (20:08.5), Caroline Mullen (20:18.7), Melissa Wisner (20:19.2), Michelle Rorke (20:36.7), Kate Ogorzaly (21:48.4), Elise Duggan (22:40.3) and Helen Millson
(22:55.1) ... they ran very fast; respective speed ratings were 124, 120,
120 (and I didn't think Melissa could run 117), 114, 91, 73, and 68.
I need a couple of days to collect and
analyze results from other sections to access their impact on the State
Class D match-up ... I will post the computer simulation results when I'm
finished.
| October 30th
Update: All four teams
(Bronxville, Beaver River, Groton and Tully) competed on Saturday. Groton
easily won the Interscholastic Athletic Conference (IAC)
Championships run at Marathon (see the Groton
Page). Tully finished 7th in the OHSL Championships at
Baldwinsville (beaten by Skaneateles, FM, Westhill, West Genesee,
Liverpool and CNS) ... Jessica Portmess showed great improvement
with a 10th place overall finish (speed rating of 112).
Beaver River easily won the
Varsity II division of the Adirondack Invitational with a score of
29 (2nd - Sauquoit Valley 84, 3rd - South Lewis 133). Top five
individuals were Lauren Moser (3rd, 20:46), Adrienne Gagnier (4th,
20:47), Julie Emery (5th, 20:48), Danielle Buzzell (6th, 21:14), and
Michelle Golden (11th, 21:49) ... respective speed ratings of 114,
113, 113, 104, and 93. Michelle Golden is showing continual
improvement.
Bronxville easily won the Westchester County Meet run at Bowdoin Park
(Bronxville - 33, New Rochelle - 102, Horace Greeley - 150) ... the
meet included 40 teams (large schools such as New Rochelle with
2400+ students and small schools such as Bronxville with 240
students).
Top five individuals were Catha Mullen (2nd, 19:35), Melissa Wisner
(6th, 20:05), Caroline Mullen (8th, 20:22), Michelle Rorke (14th,
20:52), and Kate Ogorzaly (19th, 21:22) ... respective speed ratings
of 127, 117, 111, 101 and 91. Let me congratulate Melissa Wisner
for duplicating her previously best speed rating of 117 ... which
proves she was right and I was wrong!
For the first time this season, I ran
a complete computer simulation using the top seven runners
from the four teams ... the simulation was a "predictive"
simulation (Monte Carlo statistical method) using 50,000 individual
race simulations ... I converted the compiled probabilities to team
points as follows:
Bronxville - 44
Beaver River - 45
Groton - 50
Tully - 74
NOTE: the "margin of
error" is approximately 6 points ... therefore, the top
three teams fall within the margin of error. |
Oct 25th Update: Bronxville
won the Section 1 League 3-B Championship contested on Van Cortlandt
Park's 2.5 mile course (10-24-00). Bronxville's top seven runners finished
in the top seven place giving them a perfect score. According to my
database (and an e-mail from a Bronxville fan), the top five finishers all
set PRs (personal records) for this course ... this is impressive
considering they had a hard work-out the day before ... times: Catha
Mullen (15:31), Michelle Rorke (15:33), Caroline Mullen (15:36), Melissa
Wisner (15:56), and Kate Ogorzaly (17:19). The fifth runner (Kate Ogorzaly)
is new to my database, so I would like to calculate an acceptable speed
rating for her ... but it is problematic because I only have the other
Bronxville girls as reference points ... my best guess is a speed
rating between 80 and 86 with 85 most probable (the other runners had
ratings of roughly 118,117,116 and 108).
Beaver River won the Frontier
League Championship
Meet contested at South Lewis (2.8 mile hilly course; 10-24-00) with a
score of 25 ... South Jefferson was second with 45. Nicole Lister (South
Jefferson) won the race in 18:05 ... Beaver River took the next four
places with Lauren Moser (18:26), Adrienne Gagnier (18:40), Julie Emery
(18:55) and Danielle Buzzell (19:03) ... Michelle Golden (20:09) and Kias
Ruiz (20:11) finished 11th and 12th. Their respective speed ratings were
121, 117, 112, 109, 87 and 86. The match-up between Beaver River and
Bronxville is remarkably close ... and don't count Groton out!
| October 23rd Update:
Beaver River won the Small School Championship of the
Fayetteville-Manlius Invitational held at FM High School even though
their top two runners were disqualified ... nearing the finish-line
in 2nd and 3rd place (behind winner and State Champion Laurel
Burdick of FM), Adrienne Gagnier and Lauren Moser held hands briefly
to cross the finish-line together ... race officials decided to
disqualify them for this action. However, Julie Emery (4th, 20:15),
Danielle Buzzell (6th, 20:33), Michelle Golden (21st, 21:47), Jolene
Munger (29th, 22:08), and Kisa Ruiz (35th, 22:22) did well enough to
win the Small School title.
At the Marathon Invitational, Groton
(94) finished 3rd to Elmira Southside (75) and Ithaca (77) in the
Girls Seeded Race. Groton would have won, but Lynne Vincent
(Groton's #2 runner) was forced to drop out of the race due to a hip
injury after being the co-leader of the race with team-mate Brandey
Hurchla. Brandey was an impressive winner running the fastest girl's time
of the day (20:01... 8 seconds faster than Tri-Valley's Heather Iatauro
who won the unseeded race) (speed rating of 129). Other Groton finishers included Erin Yaichuk
(12th, 21:08), Becky MacKenzie (13th, 21:13), Annie Scogin (24th, 21:48),
and Kari Gallow (44th, 22:48).
Bronxville won the V1 Race in the
Section 1 Coaches Invitational held at Westchester CC ... they
easily beat runner-up North Rockland by 28 to 98. Individual
results: Catha Mullen (1st, 20:07.1), Melissa Wisner (3rd, 20:43.6), Caroline Mullen (4th, 21:05.5),
Michelle Rorke (6th, 21:36.3), and Helen Millson (18th, 22:44.8). Melissa Wisner ran
an outstanding race (speed rating of 117) ... this rating (her best
ever according to my database) makes her competitive with the better
Beaver River runners.
A three-team computer simulation
(Beaver River, Bronxville and Groton) is virtually even-up with
Bronxville having a one point advantage over Beaver River and three
point advantage over Groton ... since the "margin of
error" is 4 points, it is statistically tied.
|
October 16th Update: Groton
traveled nearly 150 miles to challenge Beaver River in the Beaver River
Invitational ... this time, Groton would have their complete team. Groton
Coach Scott Weeks has results and a write-up posted on the Groton
Page. Beaver River won again by a score of 39-52 ... however, Groton's
#2 runner (Lynne Vincent) fell near the mile mark and was unable to finish
the race. A typical "Lynne Vincent" finish would probably drop
the Groton score by roughly 10 points ... therefore, Beaver River would
only win by only 3 points. Amongst the two team's finishers, Groton's
Brandey Hurchla was 15 seconds better than Beaver River's Adrienne Gagnier
and Julie Emery.
Bronxville won the Girls Varsity A Race in
the Manhattan Invitational contested at Van Cortlandt Park in the Bronx
(basically a home course for Bronxville). Excellent performances by Catha
Mullen (1st, 15:34.8), Michelle Rorke (5th, 15:53.2) and Caroline Mullen
(6th, 15:55.6) led Bronxville to the team title.
Results of a four-way team simulation
(Bronxville, Beaver River, Groton and Tully) haven't changed much since
the Oct. 9th Update below (except Groton is a couple of points closer).
However, the potential State match-up between Bronxville, Beaver River and
Groton is really interesting at this point ... nearly every finishing
position can be contested amongst these teams. I believe Catha Mullen
(Bronxville) is slightly ahead in being the overall winner; but improving
Brandey Hurchla (Groton) is not far behind. Bronxville's next runners
(Caroline Mullen and Michelle Rorke) are virtually even-up with Beaver
River's top three (Adrienne Gagnier, Julie Emery and Lauren Mosher).
Groton's advantage is team depth ... I believe they can finish five (and
probably six) runners before Bronxville or Beaver River's 5th runner
finishes. This is the race I will focus on after sectionals with
"all-kinds" of computer simulations (predictive, static,
ranking, etc), and probably make a fool of myself.
Oct 9th Update: Beaver
River, Groton and Tully competed at the Baldwinsville Invitational.
Beaver River beat Groton 39-57 in the C/D race ... Beaver River continues
to improve with their top four runners within 28 seconds of each other;
and their #5 runner in this race (Michelle Golden) showing a big
improvement. Groton ran very well even though one of their top runners
(Becky Mackenzie) could not run ... Brandey Hurchla had her best effort of
the year as she beat all the Beaver River runners. Tully competed in
the "B" race, but was narrowly defeated by South Jefferson
(57-59) ... the performance was not Tully's best.
Beaver River was impressive ... after the
race, I figured Beaver River was finally ahead of Bronxville. That
is, until I saw Bronxville's results ... they competed in the St. Anthony
Invitational at the Sunken Meadows course. Although they weren't in the
same division as Pearl River, their top four runners would have placed in
front of Pearl River's #2 runner (by time comparison). However, Bronxville
and Beaver River are very close ... here's the results of a four-way team
meet (computer simulation):
(1) Bronxville 43
(2) Beaver River 45
(3) Groton 52
(4) Tully 70
|
Oct 3rd Update: Tully
easily won the C/D division at the Tully Invitational. Bronxville easily
won a 2.5 mile race at Van Cortlandt Park. Beaver River and Groton
competed against each other at the McQuaid Invitational ... Beaver River
beat Groton 107-147 [the race was won by the powerful Honeoye Falls-Lima
team (62) with Skaneateles 2nd (65)]. Several coaches at McQuaid told me
that Beaver River was very impressive.
Beaver River's top three runners are all
new to the varsity this year ... freshmen Adrienne Gagnier and Lauren
Moser and 8th-grader Julie Emery (sister of Aaron Emery who won the Boys
Federation Meet last year).
The relative placings shown below in the
Sept 25th update have not changed ... but Bronxville and Beaver River are
in a two-way statistical dead-heat.
Sept 25th Update:
Tully, Beaver River and Bronxville competed at the big New Hartford
Invitational at SUNY Utica (site of the State Championship Meet). However,
they competed in separate divisions, and not directly against each other.
Groton competed in the Auburn Invitational against Skaneateles, and were
only beaten by a narrow score of 24 to 33. There are two major differences
from the last update ... Beaver River has added 8th-grader Julie Emery and
Groton has added new-comer Erin Yaichuk; both are major impact runners. I
have statistically merged the New Hartford and Auburn races into a 4-way
team meet ... here are the results:
(1) Bronxville 45
(2) Beaver River 47
(3) Groton 50
(4) Tully 73
The margin error actually places the top three teams
in a statistical dead-heat!
|
Sept 18th Update: the top Class D
teams have all race at least once during the 2000 season and some early
season evaluation is possible. Tully and Beaver River went head-to-head at
the Central Square Invitational with
Beaver River winning 63 to 84 ... Beaver River freshman Adrienne Gagnier
and Lauren Moser were very impressive; their presence greatly strengthens
the BR team as predicted in the pre-season analysis. Bronxville easily won
a 2.5 mile invitational at Van Cortlandt Park ... newcomer Michelle Rorke
crossed the finish-line with the Mullen sisters in an excellent time of
15:49 (Melissa Wisner was a close 4th (16:11) ... Bronxville may be
stronger than last year. Groton did not compete
on the weekend, but raced very impressively at the Susquehanna
Invite on Sept 9th ... they are definitely stronger than last year.
Mount Morris won the York Invitational on the 9th ... I have added them to
my database. Here is a listing of the top five
runners from the top four team with their current speed rating (Note: I am
not real confident with the Bronxville ratings):
Beaver River Tully
--------------------- ---------------------
Adrienne Gagnier 117 Heather Roberts 120
Lauren Moser 103 Jessica Portmess 95
Danielle Buzzell 103 Jamie Crawford 84
Kisa Ruiz 82 Michelle Lopez 70
Michelle Golden 68 Jessica McAnaney 65
Bronxville Groton
--------------------- ---------------------
Catha Mullen 112 Brandey Hurchla 113
Caroline Mullen 112 Lynne Vincent 112
Michelle Rorke 112 Becky MacKenzie 80
Melissa Wisner 105 Annie Scogin 93
Helen Millson 70 Katie O'Konsky 80
4-Way Team Score: 1 - Bronxville 41.5
2 - Groton 51.5
3 - Beaver River 54
4 - Tully 63
|
CLICK
HERE for Pre-Season Analysis
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