Section 3 Girls Team Ranking Page for 2002 (by TullyRunners.com)
Girls & Boys Performance Database
November 4, 2002 ... Here are the Girls pre-race projections & Actual Results for the 2002 Section 3 Championships
The projected scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a "likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 29, 2002 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet.
| Girls Class A ... Liverpool a narrow favorite over CNS |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Liverpool 51 Liverpool 54
2 CNS 60 CNS 66
3 Auburn 109 Auburn 101
4 Whitesboro 135 West Genesee 113
5 West Genesee 142 Whitesboro 121
6 Baldwinsville 148 FM 133
7 FM 170 Baldwinsville 137
8 Oswego 202 Oswego 174
9 Central Square 291 Central Square 281
10 Rome 311 Corcoran 294
11 Nottingham 321 ESM 305
12 Corcoran 325 Rome 325
13 ESM 345 Nottingham 369
14 Proctor 360
15 Watertown 393
|
| Pre-Race Analysis ... Cicero-North Syracuse was the pre-season favorite with their entire sectional championship team returning from last year plus some new talented runners ... unfortunately, injuries have seriously hurt CNS ... Despite the injuries, CNS is still a very good team with a reasonable chance to win (how well the injured runners can perform (if they run) is questionable) ... Liverpool has improved throughout the season and appears to be peaking at the right time ... Liverpool outscored CNS at last week's OHSL Meet (91 to 129), but there were 32 teams in that race, and the smaller field will help CNS ... The simulation score above is based primarily on current form, so Liverpool is the favorite. |
| Girls Class B ... Westhill remains on top |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 40 Westhill 43
2 Phoenix 57 Phoenix 61
3 South Jefferson 94 South Jefferson 118
4 New Hartford 168 Oneida 154
5 Chittenango 199 Jamesville Dewitt 176
6 Solvay 203 Solvay 200
7 Jamesville Dewitt 204 New Hartford 212
8 Oneida 211 Adirondack 214
9 Adirondack 229 VVS 217
10 VVS 239 Homer 223
11 Homer 247 Chittenango 244
12 Fulton 293 Fulton 259
13 Camden 307 Camden 318
14 Carthage 384 Carthage 390
|
| Pre-Race Analysis ... The margin between Westhill and Phoenix has been shrinking throughout the year, but Westhill's depth is a big advantage ... Westhill is the defending champion (and 3rd at last year's State Meet) with the same core of runners ... Westhill outscored Phoenix at the OHSL Meet (97 to 174), but the smaller field will make the score closer. |
| Girls Class C ... Too Close to Call ... but an injury intervenes ... |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Canastota 44 (48) Skaneateles 47
2 Skaneateles 69 (48) Canastota 61
3 Sauquoit Valley 111 (119) Tully 95
4 Tully 125 (129) Sauquoit Valley 116
5 Cato Meridian 153 (156) Cato Meridian 150
6 APW 164 (167) Holland Patent 154
7 Holland Patent 186 (188) APW 179
8 Jordan-Elbridge 227 Marcellus 207
9 Marcellus 230 Jordan-Elbridge 215
10 Cazenovia 232 Cazenovia 217
11 Herkimer 249 CBA 274
12 CBA 315
13 Hannibal 377
(Old predicted score in parentheses)
|
| Pre-Race Analysis
Update
... Coach Reed has informed me that Julie Lynch (Skaneateles' top
runner) was injured at the end of the OHSL race ... crossing the
finish line, she heard a pop and fell ... she fractured her
pelvis above the hip and is out for a long time (that is very sad
news) ... Erik Eibert (Skaneateles' #2 boy runner) is also
finished for the season (appendicitis (burst) plus a broken bone). I have added an updated Predicted Score above ... Canastota is the favorite, but Skaneateles is still within striking distance (an exceptional team effort could make it close). Old Pre-Race Analysis
... I spent more time analyzing this race than any other
(boys or girls) ... Everything (and I mean everything) indicates that
Skaneateles and Canastota are even-up ... "current
form" simulations and "predictive" simulations call this a statistical
tie ... amazingly, a 100,000 race simulation had Skaneateles winning
exactly 50,000 races and Canastota winning exactly 50,000 races (I
have never seen that before) ... clearly, an outstanding performance
by any individual runner can make the difference between winning and
losing .... Oh, did I mention Tully will be using two new Kenyan
runners (but I forgot to include them in the simulations)
|
.
| Girls Class D ... Beaver River prepares for States |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 19 Beaver River 16
2 Lafayette 86 Lafayette 71
3 Weedsport 112 Weedsport 101
4 Old Forge 127 Utica Notre Dame 105
5 Pulaski 132 Old Forge 117
6 Utica Notre Dame 138 Pulaski 154
7 Cooperstown 177 Richfield Springs 162
8 Richfield Springs 242
9 Sandy Creek 278 all others INCOMPLETE
10 Oriskany 290
11 Remsen 295
12 West Canada Valley 328
13 Port Byron 390
|
| Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River should win easily (and that's all I need to write). |
The Final Girls Team Ranking Page for the 2001 Season (Nov 5, 2001)