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November 4, 2002 ... Here are the
Boys pre-race projections
& Actual Results for
the 2002 Section 3 Championships
The projected scores shown below are the results of
various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual
race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final
score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the
probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a "likely" outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
October 29, 2002 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after
the meet.
| Boys Class A
... Central Square favorite to win |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Central Square 50 Central Square 53
2 CNS 69 FM 59
3 FM 69 Liverpool 82
4 Liverpool 75 CNS 100
5 Rome 194 Oswego 178
6 Corcoran 215 Rome 203
7 Oswego 220 Baldwinsville 220
8 West Genesee 233 Corcoran 221
9 Baldwinsville 234 West Genesee 259
10 Nottingham 270 Nottingham 260
11 Whitesboro 275 Whitesboro 275
12 Watertown 311 Watertown 297
13 Auburn 337 ESM 353
14 Proctor 352 Henninger 361
15 ESM 363 Proctor 398
Auburn 402
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Central Square handily outscored their competition at the OHSL
Meet and is the favorite to win ... however, the margin is still
within reach of CNS, FM and Liverpool (they will
need some exceptional performances) ... CNS, FM and
Liverpool appear closely matched (CNS finished in front of them at
the OHSL meet, but this is a smaller field of runners). |
| Boys Class B
... Close Contest (somewhat confusing) |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Chittenango 103 Mount Markham 59
2 Mount Markham 110 Chittenango 95
3 South Jefferson 115 South Jefferson 116
4 Westhill 122 Westhill 154
5 Holland Patent 135 Cazenovia 180
6 South Lewis 136 Canastota 191
7 Cazenovia 169 Holland Patent 192
8 Canastota 231 South Lewis 193
9 Jamesville Dewitt 245 Fulton 227
10 New Hartford 265 Jamesville Dewitt 248
11 Homer 289 New Hartford 303
12 Fulton 299 Adirondack 318
13 Camden 372 Homer 344
14 Phoenix 391 Camden 377
15 Adirondack 408 Phoenix 387
16 Indian River 413 Indian River 403
17 VVS 425 Cortland 428
18 Cortland 477 VVS 471
19 Mexico 477 Mexico 509
20 Solvay 527
|
| Pre-Race Analysis
... This is the most confusing race of the day ...
Chittenango has run well recently (winning the B1B2 Cross-Over and
finishing 6th at OHSLs) ... however, all contending teams have shown
inconsistencies during the season, and that can adversely effect
simulation results. Mount Markham definitely has a chance
to win ... they just won their division of the Adirondack Invitational
beating Canton, South Jefferson and South Lewis (South
Lewis' score was hurt by a disqualification) ... South Jefferson
is capable of a big effort and has a chance to win ... Westhill
lost to Chittenango at both the OHSL and B1B2 meets, but could
pull-off an upset with some big efforts ... Simulations
suggest Chittenango or Mount Markham are most likely to
win. |
| Boys Class C
... Sauquoit Valley has the advantage over Tully |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 37 Sauquoit Valley 33
2 Tully 45 Tully 42
3 Skaneateles 114 Cato Meridian 103
4 Cato Meridian 137 Skaneateles 129
5 Marcellus 159 CBA 172
6 CBA 176 Jordan-Elbridge 179
7 Jordan-Elbridge 189 Marcellus 191
8 Bishop Ludden 215 Bishop Ludden 221
9 APW 252 Herkimer 240
10 Ilion 254 Ilion 244
11 Herkimer 265 APW 284
12 Hannibal 345 Clinton 362
|
| Pre-Race Analysis
... This is basically a "dual-meet" match-up between
Sauquoit Valley and Tully with half a dozen other runners
included ... Tully will likely run one-two (Luka and Lomong),
but the Sauquoit "pack" will not be far behind ... simulations
indicate Sauquoit will finish five runners before Tully's 4th
finishes (and that's not good for Tully). The placement of the
"other" team runners could make a difference ... for example, if Dan
Tickner (Bishop Ludden) finishes 3rd behind Luka & Lomong, that helps
Tully by two points (five Sauquoit runners displaced to only three
Tully runners displaced) ... This could be a close race, but
Sauquoit has the advantage with depth and a very talented team.
As a side-note ... if one of Sauquoit's
top four runners can not run, their team depth is good enough to be
even-up with Tully in computer simulations. |
| Boys Class D
... Close Contest |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 89 Pulaski 75
2 Pulaski 92 Beaver River 78
3 Lafayette 105 Lafayette 108
4 Cooperstown 131 Utica Notre Dame 130
5 Weedsport 150 Cooperstown 138
6 Utica Notre Dame 186 Weedsport 141
7 Little Falls 208 Little Falls 198
8 Onondaga 225 Onondaga 221
9 Sandy Creek 245 Sandy Creek 237
10 Port Byron 252 Port Byron 262
11 Old Forge 258 Richfield Springs 268
12 Richfield Springs 285 Old Forge 278
13 Hamilton 353 New York Mills 364
14 New York Mills 384 Fabius-Pompey 370
15 MPH 431 Westmorland 403
16 Oriskany 434
17 Westmoreland 463
18 West Canada Valley 487
19 Poland 497
|
| Pre-Race Analysis
... A very close contest between Beaver River,
Pulaski and Lafayette ... current form simulations give a
small advantage to Beaver River over Pulaski ...
mid-season form has Lafayette slightly in front ...
Cooperstown could win with improved performances from their 4th
and 5th runners ... In any case, a very tight race. |
The Final Boys Team
Ranking Page for the 2001 Season (Nov 5, 2001)
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