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Pre-Season XC 2013

GIRLS Teams - National 2013

Bill Meylan (July 23, 2013)

Girls - Potential National Contenders

My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.

Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).

To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.

Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.


 National GIRLS Teams

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2013

      School                 State   Score      Region
      --------------------   -----   -----      ------
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY       200      New York
  2   Assumption              KY       220      Southeast
  3   Carmel                  IN       235      Midwest
  4   Great Oak               CA       240      California
  5   Simi Valley             CA       250      California
  6   Holy Names              NY       255      New York
  7   Wayzata                 MN       270      Heartland
  8   Pennsbury               PA       300      Northeast
  9   Naperville North        IL       330      Midwest
  10  Coeur D'Alene           ID       335      Northwest
  11  Fort Collins            CO       355      Southwest
  12  Glenbard West           IL       375      Midwest
  13  Saline                  MI       390      Midwest
  14  Pleasant Valley         IA       395      Heartland
  15  St. Francis (sac)       CA       400      California
  16  Lake Braddock           VA       410      Southeast
  17  Unionville              PA       415      Northeast
  18  Burnt Hills             NY       420      New York
  19  Xavier College Prep     AZ       425      Southwest
  20  Saratoga                NY       430      New York
  21  Monarch                 CO       435      Southwest
  22  Southlake Carroll       TX       440      South
  23  Saugus                  CA       450      California
  24  Linn-Mar                IA       455      Heartland
  25  Arrowhead               WI       460      Heartland
  26  Providence              NC       465      Southeast
  27  Barrington              RI       470      Northeast
  28  Pine Creek              CO       480      Southwest
  29  Geneva                  IL       485      Midwest
  30  American Fork           UT       490      Southwest

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order 
      could be shuffled a lot:

      Davis                   UT         Southwest (added Aug 29)
      Camas                   WA         Northwest
      Tatnall                 DE         Southeast
      Serrano                 CA         California
      Cardinal Gibbons        NC         Southeast
      Grosse Pointe South     MI         Midwest
      Seaholm                 MI         Midwest
      Dowling Catholic        IA         Heartland
      Capistrano Valley       CA         California
      Coe-Brown               NH         Northeast
      Yucaipa                 CA         California
      Sehome                  WA         Northwest (added Aug 2)
      Buchanan                CA         California
      Mira Costa              CA         California
      Lewisville Marcus       TX         South
      Bonita                  CA         California
      Davis Sr.               CA         California
      Bismarck                ND         Heartland
      Voorhees                NJ         Northeast
      Mountain Brook          AL         Southeast
      O'Fallon                IL         Midwest
      Bowling Green           KY         Southeast
      Morgantown              WV         Southeast
      Sandburg                IL         Midwest
      Palatine                IL         Midwest
      St. Mary's Academy      OR         Northwest
      Traverse City           MI         Midwest
      Central Bucks West      PA         Northeast
      Dowling Catholic        IA         Heartland
      Jesuit                  OR         Northwest
      Green Hope              NC         Southeast
      Bishop Feehan           MA         Northeast
      Liverpool               NY         New York
      Mountain Crest          UT         Southwest
      Classical Academy       CO         Southwest
      Suffern                 NY         New York
      Edina                   MN         Heartland
      Neenah                  WI         Heartland
      The Woodlands           TX         South
      Humble Kingwood         TX         South
      Centerville             OH         Midwest
      San Clemente            CA         California
      St. Thomas Aquinas      FL         Southeast
         *** I may have missed a team or two going through
              my databases as quickly as I did

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Speed ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season).


Hopefully, the girl's list above identifies many of the top teams entering the 2013 XC season in a reasonable order ... As a point of reference for last year, my 2012 pre-season projections with corresponding results from NXN 2012 are shown in a table below... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2012, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list) ... 10 of the top 12 teams at NXN teams were ranked in my pre-season top 22 teams ... I missed a NY team (East Aurora).

General Comments for the Coming Season:

Fayetteville-Manlius ... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on the top four FM runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the pre-season favorite to win NXN once again because they won it the past 7 years and they return a solid core of runners ... But in all honesty, FM might be vulnerable in 2013 ... One of their top returning runners (Mary Barger) is transferring to another school in NY ... FM does not appear to be as deep as in recent years ... and they are facing some very talented teams .... If the rankings were based solely on numbers from returning runners, Assumption KY would ranked on top.

Saratoga ... Saratoga gets my "benefit-of-the-doubt" for a top #20 ranking because of their success within NY and at NXN ... Saratoga loses their top two runners to graduation and lose their next runner via transfer to Holy Names ... Even though Saratoga appears much weaker in 2013, they've shown an ability in the past to "re-load" quickly ... As a remainder of success at NXN over the years, here are the Saratoga girl's finishes at Portland Meadows:

. NXN 2012 - 5th
. NXN 2011 - 2nd
. NXN 2010 - 2nd
. NXN 2009 - 2nd
. NXN 2008 - 4th
. NXN 2007 - 3rd
. NXN 2006 - not invited (likely top 5)
. NXN 2005 - 2nd
. NXN 2004 - 1st

 ..... I have a bias for teams with proven ability in the past ... 15 teams in this year's pre-season top 32 competed at NXN Nationals last year.

Holy Names (or more correctly, Academy of the Holy Names in Albany, NY) ... Holy Names is ranked highly because they got a top transfer from Saratoga (Olivia Morrow) and they return a talented group of runners ... More info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections and Top NY Girls Profiles.

Assumption KY returns their top 6 runners, and they finished 10th in the Portland Meadows slop last year.

Carmel IN returns 6 of their 7 NXN runners including their top three ... Carmel finished an excellent 3rd at NXN last year, and they've finished in the top 7 the past three years.

Great Oak CA returns 4 of their top five runners from last year, and Great Oak has a very deep team ... Their high ranking is justified by demonstrated XC performance in CA and trips outside CA during the season ... But Portland Meadows in December is not their "best" course.

Simi Valley CA has Sarah Baxter who will be the top-rated individual "high school" harrier in the nation  ... starting a team score with a "1" is really helpful. ... If rumors of new talent prove true, Fayetteville-Manlius could be in trouble (if NXN was held at Mt Sac).

Southlake Carroll TX ... I did some guessing here due to graduations (they lost 3 of their top 4 to graduation) ... Southlake Carroll always seems to reload, so I placed them in the top 22, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do better (which I said last year).

Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is in the same section and same class in NY as Holy Names which means only one of them can qualify for the NY State Meet ... It is entirely possible that Burnt Hills will not qualify as one of the 11 Class B teams to compete in the NY State Meet; but Burnt Hills will qualify or be selected to compete at NXN Nationals, and Burnt Hills will finish in the top ten at NXN Nationals ... Burnt Hills competed at NXN in 2007 and 2008 and finished 5th and 8th respectively.



  Last Year's (2012) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals

                                                 NXN                    Finish Order at              Last Year's
      School                 State   Score      Region                     NXN 2012                Pre-Season Projection
      --------------------   -----   -----      ------            ----------------------------     ---------------------
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY       90       New York          1    Fayetteville-Manlius NY  -  #1  pre-season
  2   Saratoga                NY      265       New York          2    Southlake Carroll    TX  -  #19 pre-season
  3   Tatnall                 DE      270       Southeast         3    Carmel               IN  -  #8  pre-season
  4   Fort Collins            CO      275       Southwest         4    East Aurora          NY  -  unranked
  5   New Trier               IL      280       Midwest           5    Saratoga             NY  -  #2  pre-season
  6   Grosse Pointe South     MI      290       Midwest           6    Tatnall              ED  -  #3  pre-season
  7   Holy Names              NY      310       New York          7    Wayzata              MN  -  unranked
  8   Carmel                  IN      330       Midwest           8    Fort Collins         CO  -  #4  pre-season
  9   Simi Valley             CA      335       California        9    Pennsbury            PA  -  #20 pre-season
  10  Monarch                 CO      340       Southwest         10   Assumption           KY  -  #14 pre-season
  11  Xavier College Prep     AZ      350       Southwest         11   New Trier            IL  -  #5  pre-season
  12  Saugus                  CA      360       California        12   Davis                UT  -  #22 pre-season
  13  La Costa Canyon         CA      365       California        13   Camas                WA  -  #30+ group pre-season
  14  Assumption              KY      390       Southeast         14   Coeur D'Alene        ID  -  #30+ group pre-season
  15  Estero                  FL      410       Southeast         15   Naperville North     IL  -  unranked
  16  Saline                  MI      430       Midwest           16   Great Oak            CA  -  #29 pre-season
  17  Bozeman                 MT      440       Northwest         17   Saugus               CA  -  #12 pre-season
  18  Glacier Peak            WA      445       Northwest         18   Pine Creek           CO  -  unranked
  19  Southlake Carroll       TX      450       South             19   Eagan                MN  -  unranked
  20  Pennsbury               PA      460       Northeast         20   St. Francis          CA  -  #30+ group pre-season
  21  Wheaton Warrenville S   IL      470       Midwest           21   The Woodlands        TX  -  unranked
  22  Davis                   UT      475       Southwest         22   Voorhees             NJ  -  #30+ group pre-season
  23  Vista Del Lago          CA      476       California
  24  Bronxville              NY      480       New York
  25  Dowling Catholic        IA      481       Heartland
  26  Neenah                  WI      482       Heartland
  27  Aptos                   CA      490       California
  28  San Clemente            CA      491       California
  29  Great Oak               CA      495       California
  30  Burnt Hills             NY      500       New York