Comparing
Girls NXN (NTN) 2004-2010:
by Bill Meylan (TullyRunners ... December 18, 2010)
A number of people have asked me to compare the winning teams from different years at NXN (NTN) Portland Meadows ... Which team is best requires a subjective opinion ... For example, "Which Girls team was best, Saratoga 2004 or Fayetteville-Manlius 2010??" ... The answer is a subjective opinion because these teams competed in different seasons six years apart.
Which team performed best at NXN Portland
Meadows can also be subjective ... However, I did evaluate the
NXN performances with speed ratings, and I believe my NXN speed ratings
are reasonably accurate ... So what the heck - while I'm still doing
speed ratings for high school cross country, why not make a simple
hypothetical race of various NXN teams and see what the results would be
using speed ratings
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NXN Portland Meadows just finished its 7th year ... It started with 20 girls teams in 2004 and currently includes 22 teams ... A hypothetical race of 21 teams seemed appropriate, so I decided to include the top three teams from each year (the podium teams) in a hypothetical race ... The race includes all seven runners from each team and their corresponding NXN speed ratings (finishing positions are sorted by speed rating, ties considered equal) ... The individual runners and finishing positions are listed below for reference (Ramsey Kavan (Yankton SD) is the hypothetical winner with Christie Rutledge (FM) second) ... Note - this hypothetical race considers ONLY the performance results from NXN Portland Meadows (it ignores all other race performances such as races leading up to NXN).
The results of the hypothetical race are as follows:
1 Saratoga 2004 104
2 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 116
3 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 158
4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 160
5 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 232
6 Smoky Hill CO 2004 240
7 Hilton NY 2005 253
8 Southlake Carroll TX 2005 260
9 Saugus CA 2008 262
10 Saratoga NY 2005 265
11 Saratoga NY 2009 302
12 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 309
13 Fort Collins CO 2009 312
14 Yankton SD 2004 322
14 Tatnall DE 2008 328
16 Saugus CA 2007 337
17 Saratoga NY 2007 359
18 Saugus CA 2010 364
19 Hilton NY 2006 380
20 Southlake Carroll TX 2006 386
21 Saratoga NY 2010 388
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Since the results are based solely on NXN Portland Meadows speed ratings, the question will be "How do you compare one year to another in terms of speed ratings?? ... I'm including some technical info for those who are interested...
For NXN (and most races during the season), I begin by plotting the race results on a graph so I can visually inspect the profile (the graph is race time vs. finishing position) ... Whenever possible, on the same graph, I plot the results of the same race from previous years ... If the number of runners in the different races varies significantly, then the finishing position must be scaled using a simple proportion.
Since this article is considering Girls NXN, the following graph illustrates the race profiles for years 2004, 2009 and 2010 ... Saratoga 2004 and FM 2010 are an obvious comparison (so 2004 and 2010 are included) ... 2009 (which had a much faster racing surface at NXN) is included to illustrate the difference.
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Graphical interpretation requires some experience because, at times, the proper interpretation is not intuitively obvious ... BUT comparing the same races (different years) at the same course with runners of the same general quality minimizes problems ... Often, a direct comparison (of the proper graph region) yields a relatively accurate evaluation of the time difference between races.
A quick visual inspection of the graph
above indicates that the 2004 and 2010 races were not far apart in terms
of comparative speed ... The straight red lines (fitting the data
between finishing positions 20 and 80) are a quick approximation of the
relative speeds ... 2004 was a bit faster than 2010 - the quick
inspection suggest that the 2004 girl's race was 6 to 9 seconds faster
than the 2010 race ... and that the 2009 race was 50 seconds or more
faster (I guess some dry ground does matter
).
As a side-note ... Look at finishing positions 1-20 for 2004 ... Note the steep downward curve compared to the rest of the field ... That's what an elite group of runners looks like on a graph, and that 2004 group consisted of many Footlocker Finalists ... 2010 also displays some elite runners - two runners (Rachel Johnson and Christie Rutledge) separated themselves from the next runner by 27 seconds, and it really shows graphically ... the top runners in 2009 did not separate themselves from the field by nearly as much.
The quick graphical inspection is just
the first step in determining the race adjustments for the speed ratings
... Other graphical steps include:
(1) statistically smoothing the data points and re-comparing
(2) exclude selected data points for various reasons
(3) for NXN, exclude individual runners and compare just team runners
The overall graphical steps result in a graphically-derived race adjustment (a number of seconds to add or subtract to the actual final times of the race) ... But since I have speed rating data for the individual runners (ratings from previous races), I use that data separately to derive a separate race adjustment based solely on individual performances at NXN ... In this regard, NXN has an "quirk" compared to using this method during the season - at NXN, many runners do not perform up to the level that got them and their teams to NXN ... I have an "NXN" statistical correction method that requires me to go through the top 80 finishers individually and select (or exclude) them for further statistical derivation.
When the above steps are completed, I compare the various race adjustments and determine a final race adjustment for the race ... That's how I have evaluated all NXN races.
Boys Hypothetical Race ...
I have done it, but I have not decided if I want to post it
..... Unfortunately, it requires a detailed explanation of one year's
results in particular, and that explanation is very negative towards
many teams in how they performed ... Suffice to say, York IL 2004 wins
the hypothetical race.
Speed Rating Combination of the Top Three Teams
from Each Year 2004-2010 (total of 21 teams)
Runner School Team & Year Rating
1 Ramsey Kavan Yankton SD 2004 161.2
2 Christie Rutledge Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 157.9
3 Miranda Walker Southlake Carroll TX 2005 156.2
4 Nicole Blood Saratoga 2004 156.1
5 Brooke Upshaw Southlake Carroll TX 2005 155.3
6 Katelyn Kaltenbach Smoky Hill CO 2004 154.9
7 Keara Sammons Smoky Hill CO 2004 154.8
8 Lindsay Ferguson Saratoga NY 2005 152.0
9 Hannah Davidson Saratoga 2004 151.4
10 Lindsey Ferguson Saratoga 2004 150.9
11 Chapman, Courtney Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 149.3
12 Katie Sischo Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 148.4
13 Jillian Fanning Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 147.8
14 Davidson, Hannah Saratoga NY 2007 147.3
14 Morgan Schulz Smoky Hill CO 2004 147.3
16 Sawyer, Allison Hilton NY 2006 146.7
17 Carter, Mackenzie Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 146.0
18 Mahoney, Kaylin Saugus CA 2008 145.6
19 Hannah Davidson Saratoga NY 2005 145.3
20 Buchan, Kathryn Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 145.1
21 Upshaw, Tara Southlake Carroll TX 2006 144.3
22 Dunn, Katherine Saugus CA 2007 144.0
23 Caitlin Lane Saratoga 2004 143.5
24 Katie Sischo Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 143.0
25 Anklin, Meaghan Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 142.4
25 Molly Malone Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 142.4
27 Allison Sawyer Hilton NY 2005 142.2
27 Mahoney, Kaylin Saugus CA 2007 142.2
29 Chapman, Courtney Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 142.1
29 Luber, Hannah Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 142.1
31 Luber, Hannah Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 141.6
31 Keelin Hollowood Saratoga NY 2009 141.6
33 Courtney Chapman Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 141.3
34 Carter, Mackenzie Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 141.1
35 Heather Martin Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 140.9
36 Jillian Fanning Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 140.3
37 Elizabeth Bies Yankton SD 2004 140.2
38 Carter, Mackenzie Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 139.7
39 Rachel Viger Fort Collins CO 2009 137.7
40 McKenzie Carter Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 137.6
41 Amanda Griggs Hilton NY 2005 137.5
41 Bottorff, Juliet Tatnall DE 2008 137.5
43 Schultz, Caroline Hilton NY 2006 136.5
43 Kaylin Mahoney Saugus CA 2010 136.5
43 Stephanie Bulder Saugus CA 2010 136.5
46 Caroline Schulz Hilton NY 2005 136.3
47 Ferber, Chistina Southlake Carroll TX 2006 135.5
48 Erin Hooker Fort Collins CO 2009 135.1
49 Buenaga, Kaitlin Tatnall DE 2008 134.9
50 Malone, Molly Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 134.0
50 Marci Witczak Fort Collins CO 2009 134.0
50 King, Sydney Saratoga NY 2007 134.0
53 Madison Carr Saratoga NY 2009 133.1
54 Courtney Chapman Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 132.7
55 Hannah Luber Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 132.5
56 Pierce, Haley Tatnall DE 2008 131.6
57 Murakami, Amber Saugus CA 2008 131.2
58 Shelby Herman Hilton NY 2005 130.6
58 Karyn Delay Saratoga 2004 130.6
58 Bulder, Stephanie Saugus CA 2008 130.6
61 Malone, Molly Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 130.2
62 Goutos, Cassandra Saratoga NY 2007 130.0
62 Tara Upshaw Southlake Carroll TX 2005 130.0
64 Jauregui, Brianna Saugus CA 2008 129.8
65 Randall, Anne Saugus CA 2008 129.7
66 Amanda Borroughs Saratoga NY 2009 129.3
67 Kirsten Follett Fort Collins CO 2009 129.2
68 Taylor Driscoll Saratoga NY 2010 128.4
69 Sydney King Saratoga NY 2009 128.0
69 Christina Ferber Southlake Carroll TX 2005 128.0
71 Amanda Kuchta Yankton SD 2004 127.7
72 Kipling Hill Saratoga NY 2005 126.9
73 Randall, Anne Saugus CA 2007 126.8
74 Heather Martin Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 126.5
75 Danielle Hernando Saugus CA 2010 126.3
76 Fehr, Kallie Tatnall DE 2008 126.1
77 Amanda Borroughs Saratoga NY 2010 126.0
78 Cassandra Goutos Saratoga NY 2005 125.9
78 Madison Carr Saratoga NY 2010 125.9
80 Sydney King Saratoga NY 2010 125.8
81 Hauser, Jessica Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 125.2
81 Ashley Jones Hilton NY 2005 125.2
83 Brianne Bellon Saratoga NY 2009 125.1
84 Buchan, Kathryn Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 124.9
85 Keelin Hollowood Saratoga NY 2010 123.5
86 Frankian, Karis Saugus CA 2008 123.1
87 Estela Smith Saratoga NY 2010 122.6
88 Ashley Campbell Saratoga NY 2005 121.8
89 Cassandra Goutos Saratoga NY 2009 121.3
90 Merissa Kado Saugus CA 2010 120.3
90 Denny, Emily Southlake Carroll TX 2006 120.3
92 Ritchie, Sarah Hilton NY 2006 119.9
93 Buchan, Kristen Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 119.8
93 Richards, Jocelyn Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 119.8
95 Hooley, Hilary Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 119.5
96 Chapman, Courtney Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 119.2
96 Molt, Keri Saugus CA 2008 119.2
98 Tiffany Leader Yankton SD 2004 118.8
99 Erin Stratton Smoky Hill CO 2004 118.6
100 Brown, Kirsten Southlake Carroll TX 2006 118.5
101 Brianna Freestone Saratoga NY 2009 118.4
102 Malone, Molly Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 118.3
102 Buchan, Katheryn Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 118.3
102 Cameron Vatanian Saratoga NY 2005 118.3
105 Herman, Shelby Hilton NY 2006 117.8
106 Parsons, Molly Tatnall DE 2008 117.3
107 Jauregui, Brianna Saugus CA 2007 116.4
108 Denise Chilson Fort Collins CO 2009 116.2
108 Moore, Nina Saugus CA 2007 116.2
110 Ashley Campbell Saratoga 2004 116.2
111 Bellon, Brianne Saratoga NY 2007 115.8
112 Chapman, Alexandra Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 115.6
113 Karis Frankian Saugus CA 2010 115.2
114 Renee Mayer Smoky Hill CO 2004 114.7
115 Kristin Sternhagen Yankton SD 2004 114.3
116 Jade Steinberg Yankton SD 2004 112.7
117 Alexandra Hampton Saugus CA 2010 112.6
118 Emily McGurrin Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 112.0
118 Molly Pezzulo Saratoga NY 2010 112.0
120 Madalyne Staab Fort Collins CO 2009 111.9
121 Kristen Brown Southlake Carroll TX 2005 111.8
122 Borroughs, Amanda Saratoga NY 2007 111.1
123 Alysha Mc Elroy Saratoga 2004 110.2
124 Jones, Ashley Hilton NY 2006 109.8
125 Katie Brislin Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 109.4
126 Calvarese, Allison Tatnall DE 2008 108.8
127 Caputo, Catie Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2006 107.9
128 Stephens, Taylor Southlake Carroll TX 2006 107.4
129 Lindsey Dezman Smoky Hill CO 2004 106.9
130 Jenay Jauregu Saugus CA 2010 106.0
131 Taleah McClintock Fort Collins CO 2009 105.7
132 Julie Selves Yankton SD 2004 105.0
133 Blackwell, Lauren Tatnall DE 2008 104.8
134 Treichel, Kathryn Saratoga NY 2007 104.3
135 Bonja, Michelle Saugus CA 2007 103.9
136 Morgan Kuykendall Southlake Carroll TX 2005 103.3
137 Murakami, Amber Saugus CA 2007 103.2
138 Conway, Megan Saratoga NY 2007 102.6
139 Michelle Wenino Smoky Hill CO 2004 101.8
140 Emily Denny Southlake Carroll TX 2005 99.4
141 Brianne Bellon Saratoga NY 2005 94.3
142 Crocetti, Lindsay Hilton NY 2006 92.2
143 Calleen Childs Hilton NY 2005 73.4
144 Brown, Hannah Southlake Carroll TX 2006 70.8
145 Gilbert, Caitlin Southlake Carroll TX 2006 63.2
146 Abrams, Chelsea Hilton NY 2006 54.0
147 Erin Pratt Hilton NY 2005 9.0
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