TullyRunners - Article
Individual Cross Country Girls - Sarah Baxter, Mary Cain & Anna Rohrer
by Bill Meylan (December 14, 2012)
Post NXN and Footlocker Nationals 2012
... This is a quick article looking at the top three cross country girls in
the nation at the close of the 2012 season ... I find it interesting because
Sarah Baxter, Mary Cain and Anna Rohrer are all
underclassmen.
They will likely enter the 2013 cross country season as the favorites
nationally and it’s fun to speculate ... not only about next year, but about
this year since Anna Rohrer never raced Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain
head-to-head.
Horseplayers like to read past performance charts and evaluate the prospects
of each horse in a race ... This exercise is looking at just three high
school girls ... So I updated the past performance records of Sarah
Baxter and Mary Cain from my pre-season preview and added Anna
Rohrer ... Here are their past performance records (as of December 14.
2012):
| Sarah Baxter 11 Simi Valley HS California (Southern Section) | ||
 courtesy DailyNews.com |
NXN Nationals 12/1/2012 1 19:17.0 159 CA States Champ-Div1 11/24/2012 1 16:39.7 162 CA Southern Sec Champ 11/17/2012 1 15:53.0 146 CA Southern Sec PreL 11/10/2012 1 16:41.0 --- Marmonte League Champ 11/1/2012 1 16:37.58 --- Ventura County Champ 10/26/2012 1 17:15.01 --- Mt SAC Team Sweep 10/20/2012 1 16:00.0 164 Woodbridge Invite 9/14/2012 1 16:12.0 147 -------------- ------- NXN Nationals 12/3/2011 1 17:38.0 154 CA States Champ-Div2 11/26/2011 1 17:07.4 156 CA Southern Sec Champ 11/19/2011 1 16:44.0 153 CA Southern Sec PreL 11/12/2011 1 16:09.0 150 Marmonte League Champ 11/3/2011 1 17:03.05 ~145 Ventura County Champ 10/28/2011 1 17:41.07 ~141 Mt SAC Team Sweep 10/22/2011 1 16:59.0 149 -------------- ------- CA States Champ-Div1 11/27/2010 1 16:56.9 158 CA Southern Sec Champ 11/20/2010 1 17:40.0 151 CA Southern Sec PreL 11/12/2010 1 17:39.0 135 Mt SAC Team Sweep 10/23/2010 1 16:41.0 155 Woodbridge Invite 9/18/2010 1 16:46.0 140 |
Track (selected races): CA State Champ 6/2/12 3200m 1 10:12.00 CA SS Sec Masters 5/25/12 3200m 1 10:08.71 CA SS Sec Div2 Final 5/19/12 1600m 1 4:51.12 CA SS Sec Div2 Final 5/19/12 3200m 1 10:21.17 CA SS Sec Div2 PreLim 5/12/12 1600m 2 4:49.33 CA SS Sec Div2 PreLim 5/12/12 3200m 1 10:27.90 Marmonte League 5/4/12 1600m 1 4:52.01 Marmonte League 5/4/12 3200m 1 10:28.27 Ventura Co Champ 4/27/12 3200m 1 10:21.61 Tri-Meet 4/18/12 1600m 1 4:59.28 Arcadia Invitational 4/7/12 3200m 1 10:08.11 Redondo Nike Fest 3/17/12 1600m 1 5:02.76 Don Green Inv 3/4/12 1600m 1 5:02.45 Don Green Inv 3/4/12 3200m 1 10:44.14 |
| Mary Cain 11 Bronxville HS-Unattached New York | ||
 |
NXN Nationals 12/1/2012 2 19:21.0 158 NXN NY Region 11/24/2012 1 17:42.6 158 Fred Lebow NYRR 11/18/2012 1 17:26.0 159 Manhattan Inv VarA 10/13/2012 1 14:03.9 151 St Anthonys Inv-Sm 10/6/2012 1 18:45.30 141 Warwick Wave-D1 9/22/2012 1 17:59.8 141 Villa Bears Inv 9/15/2012 1 14:42.2 139 -------------- ------- NXN Nationals 12/3/2011 6 17:56.0 148 NXN-NY Regional 11/26/2011 3 18:19.4 148 NY Federation 11/19/2011 1 17:40.0 159 NY States-Class C 11/12/2011 1 19:29.5 145 Section 1-Class C 11/4/2011 1 18:25.02 144 Sec 1 Coaches-V2 10/22/2011 1 18:02.96 151 Manhattan-Var E 10/9/2011 1 14:31.1 145 St Anthonys Inv-Sm 10/1/2011 1 18:28.47 146 Warwick Wave-1 9/24/2011 1 18:14.0 142 Villa Bears Inv 9/17/2011 1 14:16.1 144 Randolph Inv NJ 9/10/2011 1 17:50.16 144 -------------- ------- Federation Champ 11/20/2010 14 18:55.6 134 NY States-Class C 11/13/2010 1 18:42.7 135 |
Track (selected races): World Junior Champ 7/15/12 1500m 6 4:11.01 World Junior Champ 7/13/12 1500m 3 4:14.77 US Olympic Trials 6/22/12 800m 18 2:04.11 USA Junior Champ 6/17/12 1500m 1 4:14.74 USA Junior Champ 6/15/12 1500m 1 4:24.25 NY State Champ 6/9/12 1500m 1 4:19.78 Sec 1-St Qual-D2 6/1/12 1500m 1 4:16.52 Sec 1-Class C 5/23/12 1500m 1 4:21.4 Sec 1-Class C 5/23/12 800m 1 2:06.3 Loucks Games 5/11/12 800m 1 2:03.34 Somers Lion Inv 5/5/12 1500m 1 4:17.1 Penn Relays 4/26/12 1 Mile 1 4:39.28 New York Relays 4/21/12 800m 1 2:05.90 Fulton Invite 4/18/12 400m 1 0:56.3 Pirate Relays 3/31/12 3000m 1 9:32.2 NBIN Nationals 3/11/12 800m 2 2:07.26 NY State Champ 3/3/12 1500m 1 4:24.25 Millrose Games 2/11/12 1 Mile 4 4:52.19 New Balance Col 2/3/12 1000m 1 2:47.29 Yale Classic 1/21/12 3000m 3 9:47.97 Hispanic Games 1/7/12 1 Mile 2 4:48.98 |
| Anna Rohrer 10 Mishawaka HS Indiana | ||
 courtesy WSBT.com |
As a freshman in 2011, Anna Rohrer ran some early XC
races, but was then sidelined by injuries ... she had a broken bone and four
stress fractures ... was on crutches for 3 months and did not run for 150 days
... returned to run track in the spring of 2012. Footlocker Finals 12/8/2012 1 17:24.8 159 Footlocker Midwest 11/24/2012 1 16:54.0 156 Indiana States-D1 10/27/2012 1 17:13.2 154 Indiana Sem-State 10/20/2012 1 17:03.96 --- Indiana Regional 10/13/2012 1 17:24.0 --- IHSAA Sectional 9 10/9/2012 1 17:33.2 --- Northern Conference 9/29/2012 1 17:38.0 --- Culver Invitational 9/22/2012 2 17:32.1 144 New Praire Invite 9/15/2012 1 17:14.1 ~147 Nothridge Co Clash 9/8/2012 1 17:56.9 --- Viking Stampede MI 8/18/2012 1 17:46.0 --- -------------- ------- New Praire Invite 9/17/2011 12 19:17.1 --- |
Track (selected races): Indiana St Champ 6/2/12 3200m 17 11:11.04 IHSAA Warsaw Region 5/22/12 3200m 5 11:19.81 IHSAA Brebeuf Sect 5/15/12 1600m 4 5:23.89 IHSAA Brebeuf Sect 5/15/12 3200m 3 11:45.01 |
I will assume the role of the
morning-line handicapper at a race track
... this is the person that comes-up with the morning-line odds that appear
in the program and are initially posted on the tote board at the start of
betting ... Up front I will state, in general, Sarah Baxter will be the
morning-line favorite.
Sarah Baxter deserves to be favorite
for several reasons, (1) her cross country records shows nothing but
1st-places for the past three years and that includes California State
championships and two NXN National championships (with wins over Mary
Cain), (2) she has slightly the highest speed ratings, and (3) she is
really good ... What makes this interesting is that Mary Cain and
Anna Rohrer are really good as well.
Location-Location-Location ... Where the race takes place does
matter ... Although some people might think Portland Meadows, Balboa Park,
Woodward Park CA, Bowdoin Park NY, LaVern Gibson Championship XC Course IN,
Van Cortlandt Park NY, Mt SAC, and the Footlocker Midwest course are all the
same, I tend to disagree
.
Would Sarah Baxter be an odds-on favorite in a Footlocker-type
race?? ... I doubt it because there is too much competition and Mary
Cain and Anna Rohrer both have performance records reasonably
close to Sarah Baxter ... My morning-line at various locations
would be as follows:
Morning-Line Odds Morning-Line Odds Morning-Line Odds Portland Meadows OR Balboa Park CA LaVern Gibson IN Sarah Baxter 6-5 Sarah Baxter 7-5 Sarah Baxter 7-5 Mary Cain 8-5 Anna Rohrer 8-5 Anna Rohrer 8-5 Anna Rohrer 5-2 Mary Cain 8-5 Mary Cain 8-5 Morning-Line Odds Morning-Line Odds Morning-Line Odds Bowdoin Park NY WakeMed Cary NC Detweiller Park IL Mary Cain 7-5 Sarah Baxter 7-5 Sarah Baxter 7-5 Sarah Baxter 8-5 Mary Cain 8-5 Mary Cain 7-5 Anna Rohrer 9-5 Anna Rohrer 9-5 Anna Rohrer 2-0 |
I give credit to courses where individuals
have raced and succeeded ... Sarah Baxter has succeeded at Portland Meadows
and several California courses ... Mary Cain has succeeded in NY ...
Anna
Rohrer has proven she can fall down and win Footlocker Nationals at Balboa
Park ... I make Mary Cain favorite at the NY courses because those are her
home courses and NY officials would probably schedule the race for 8:00am in
the morning knowing Sarah Baxter was losing 3 hours in her travel to the
East coast
.
I want to see the three of them race head-to-head on some sort of a typical
American high school cross country course and Portland Meadows in December
is definitely NOT that ... I don’t give a darn what the Europeans or
collegians do ...It is American high school cross country that interests me
IF high school kids are running a "championship" race.
When betting real money, you always weigh both the positives and the
negatives ... I always consider the speeds ratings because that’s what I do
... The speed ratings from Portland Meadows and Balboa Park are not exactly
equal due to the circumstances and course conditions of each race and
require separate evaluation (To be discussed in a separate article ... I’m
obviously bored at work).
Just consider ... with the exception of the atypical flat mud-hole of
Portland Meadows, Sarah Baxter has never won a national (or even
regional-type) high school cross country race outside of her native
California ... Mary Cain has never won a high school cross country race
outside of her native New York ... Anna Rohrer was on crutches for 3 months
at this time last year ... she improved throughout the cross country season
and faced national-caliber Ashley Erba on a number of occasions this season
beating her three times ... Anna Rohrer went to Wisconsin and broke the
Footlocker Midwest course record against a field of runners that was
arguably the best group of regional runners in the US (NXN or Footlocker)
... she then traveled half-way across the country only to fall down, get-up
and win Footlocker Nationals ... So I ask, "How good is Anna Rohrer??" ... I
don’t know, but she has accomplished things that Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain
have yet to do.
I find this a lot more interesting than the state of the current team-thing
as it exists at NXN Portland Meadows.
One contrast with NXN ... Assume these three girls competed head-to-head in
a national championship race ... I’m trying to imagine the official
interviewers asking the two losers after the race if they had fun
... That
aspect of NXN will be discussed in a future article ... Imagine Dwight
Stones, at the US Olympic Trials, asking the 4th and 5th finishers in an
event if they had fun
... I’m not trying to be harsh, but simply
point-out
that the actual intent of an event can be revealed by those involved in it,
and that includes the competitors.
Sarah Baxter, Mary Cain and Anna Rohrer are all champions ... The thought of
watching them compete head-to-head on a real American high school course is
a very nice thought ... But I’m doubting it will ever happen
.