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Pre-Race Comments
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All previous 19 years of NXN (Team Nationals) have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual overall speed ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Comments:
- The Morning-Line at most Horse
Tracks considers three factors:
- ... Past performance history of each
horse
- ... An Opinion of what people are
likely to bet
- ... Handicapping Opinion of the person making the
morning-line.
Nine of the Boys Teams competing at NXN 2025
competed at NXN 2024.
The Three Top Teams the the
Projection above (Niwot, Christian
Brothers Academy and Herriman) were the top favorites last
year and they finished 1st, 3rd and 5th ... Like last year, other teams are definitely in the
hunt for a podium spot this year.
Niwot is the
defending NXN Champion and this year's favorite ... Niwot has
raced vey well this season.
Christian Brothers Academy
has also raced exceptionally well this season ... The speed ratings indicate that Christian Brothers
Academy could definitely win with an excellent performance.
Herriman
finished 3rd at NXN last year and is a contender along with Jesuit
(SS), Jesuit Portland and others.
Teams projected
as #4 through #10 above are not
separated by much and could swap finishing places ... It really is a
guess
... and the same goes for the other close team scores below them.
Computer Race Simulations
(a
brief explanation) ... I take each runner's seasonal speed ratings (see
ratings below) and use them to run a statistical "monte carlo"
analysis (a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an
uncertain event) ... I typically run 100,000 race simulations randomly
selecting one speed rating for each runner in each simulated race ... I
do runs using just the ratings I have or I wrap a
statistical distribution around the sequential ratings of each runner
and randomly select one point on that distribution (preferred) ... The
results of each simulated race is compiled.
I think it's a toss-up with a bunch of teams
that have a chance to make the podium ... There is definitely talent to challenge the
top teams for podium spots
with a great
team performance.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams
(this includes injuries, sickness, bad luck, etc.) ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Brief Stat ... 70% of all the boys
team runners have an "overall" speed rating of 170 or higher and 54%
have an "overall" speed rating of 175 or higher ... This means lots of
team scoring displacement will be occurring ... Every runner really
does count.
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2025 by current best speed rating ...
Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN) ... 11 of the 51 runner with 190+ speed ratings
are "Team" runners.
51 Runners have a seasonal speed rating of
190 or higher, and 13 have a speed rating of 195 or higher ...
This is a great
race.
This race has many runners capable of
exceptional performances and challenging for the top positions ...
Many runners are in contention for a top 10 position.
Not certain what the course conditions and
weather will be at race time ... Sometimes it is hard to guess who will be helped
or hurt by the conditions ... and the tactics of the race is
another fun handicapping factor with so many guys in contention.
Jackson Spencer should be considered
the morning-line favorite entering the race ... He is undefeated and
has the highest individual speed rating and he beat the next 2 highest
speed-rated runners at NXR Southwest.
But many other runners are close behind and this will be the first time many
runners will race each other head-to-head all season ... Sean Fries,
Sean Gray, Caden Leonard and others could make this
an interesting race ... This
would be a wonderful pari-mutuel betting race !
Many serious challengers in
this race ... Take your pick from the Speed Rating Past
Performance List below ... Who would I bet? - That would be
determined by the pari-mutuel betting odds, and I would bet somebody
with betting odds higher than his probability of winning.
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