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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2024 - Projections & Preview 2024

 

Please remember: the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of (I used the pre-race entries listed on LeoneTiming, but some alternant runners may be used)  ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Projected Scores were posted on November 13, 2024 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... Actual Scores Added Nov 16

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

Actual Scores Added Nov 16

[ Girls projections ]

 

 Boys Class A  -  Ithaca & Colonie in a toss-up with other possible wnners! 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Ithaca               (04)      83        Monroe Woodbury        60
  2   Colonie              (02)      83        North Rockland         82
  3   North Rockland       (01)      89        Colonie                94
  4   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     103        Auburn                105
  5   Ward Melville        (11)     104        Ithaca                113
  6   Auburn               (03)     120        Ward Melville         115
  7   Fairport             (05)     126        Fairport              162
  8   Syosset              (08)     188        Syosset               173
  9   Clarence             (06)     199        Clarence              212

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like last year, this is a nice quality race with maybe five teams having a chance ... Ithaca and Colonie appear even-up currently with the best probabilities of winning ... It is a real toss-up ... North Rockland is very close with a decent chance.

Monroe-Woodbury and Ward Melville are not far behind ... This race could be really interesting if it was a betting race.

Any team with scorers having "off-races" or exceptionally strong performances could go down or up accordingly ... There are more than 20 team runners with projected speed ratings between 167 and 181, so significant displacement could really effect the scoring.

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race as can be seen from the speed ratings below ...   17 runners have a seasonal speed rating of 180 or higher ... I'm interested to see how this race develops.

 
 
Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating
1   Ryan Sykes            10   01-A    Horace Greeley       188.97   189      186
2   Riley Hubisz          12   04-A    Ithaca               188.70   189      183
3   Owen Conley           11   02-A    Colonie              188.23   188      186
4   Thomas Isenovski      11   02-A    Saratoga             187.00   187      186
5   Jake Albert           12   11-A    Lindenhurst          185.07   185      184
6   Ryan Tuohy            11   01-A    North Rockland       183.80   184      182
7   Shane Golio           12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      182.70   183      179
8   Owen Blaisdell        12   02-A    Saratoga             182.57   183      177
9   Jack Seagroatt        12   02-A    Shenendehowa         182.50   183      181
10  William Smitas        12   02-A    Guilderland          182.03   182      175
11  Jon Seyfert           12   11-A    Ward Melville        181.87   182      179
12  Gavin Catherwood      12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      181.77   182      180
13  Noah Hilker           12   04-A    Ithaca               180.70   181      176
14  Claudel Marc Chery    11   01-A    North Rockland       180.67   181      180
15  Ian Zehnder           12   02-A    Colonie              180.47   180      178
16  Austin Ferrin         12   03-A    Auburn               180.07   180      177
17  Darren Pasek          12   02-A    Saratoga             179.67   180      179
18  Owen Gasper           11   03-A    Auburn               179.47   179      178
19  Anthony Anatol        11   11-A    Ward Melville        179.23   179      176
20  Will Ditre            12   03-A    FM                   178.83   179      176
21  Luke Simon            12   05-A    Irondequoit          178.80   179      176
22  Ryan Maher            11   03-A    Auburn               178.57   179      177
23  Gavin DeVito          12   11-A    West Islip           177.47   177      173
24  Henry Hill            11   05-A    Fairport             177.00   177      176
25  Andrew Green          11   05-A    Fairport             176.20   176      173

 

 Boys Class B  -  Manhasset the favorite 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Manhasset            (08)      45        Manhasset              44
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      67        Pittsford Mendon       93
  3   Pearl River          (01)      99        Pearl River           105
  4   CBA-Albany           (02)     118        Cornwall              106
  5   Eastport-South Manor (11)     128        CBA-Albany            115
  6   Cornwall             (09)     128        Eastport-South Manor  132
  7   Vestal               (04)     171        Vestal                152
  8   Whitesboro           (03)     206        Whitesboro            192
  9   Hamburg              (06)     218        Hamburg               262
  10  Peru                 (07)     282        Peru                  270
  11  Massena              (10)     286        Massena               301

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills won the State Class B titles the last 3 years, but CBA-Albany won the Section 2 race this season.

Manhasset finished 2nd at the State Class B race last year and are the favorite this season.

Individual Race ... There are 16 Class B runners with season high speed ratings between 186 and 175 ... And the top 5 runners are separated by only 4 speed ratings points making this a potentially close race ... William Tempest won the Class B race last year and is the top rated runner this season making him the favorite.

 

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating 
1   William Tempest       12   05-B    Pittsford Suth       185.87   186      186
2   Trevor Green          11   11-B    Rocky Point          182.90   183      179
3   Blake Sealy           11   08-B    Manhasset            182.40   182      180
4   Liam Davidson         12   02-B    Queensbury           182.20   182      181
5   Henry Peterson        10   06-B    City Honors          181.60   182      180
6   Andy Condon           12   01-B    John Jay CR          180.33   180      178
7   Daniel Granville      12   05-B    Greece Arcadia       179.90   180      179
8   Ethan Owen            10   02-B    Burnt Hills          178.80   179      177
9   Victor Delgado        11   01-B    Hen Hudson           178.20   178      176
10  Owen Stachlik         12   08-B    Wantagh              177.87   178      174
11  Owen Staley           12   01-B    Sleepy Hollow        176.67   177      176
12  Hartley Semmes        12   11-B    Harborfields         176.63   177      176
13  Joseph Nuzzo          12   09-B    Lourdes              176.20   176      173
14  Justin Albanese       12   11-B    EastportSManor       175.40   175      171
15  Sam Gunther           12   01-B    Nyack                175.30   175      174
16  Matteo Somma          12   08-B    Valley Stream N      175.00   175      170

 

 Boys Class C  -  East Aurora the solid favorite 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      43        East Aurora            32
  2   Bronxville           (01)      75        Bronxville             73
  3   Oneonta              (04)      86        Beekmantown           122
  4   Beekmantown          (07)     120        Oneonta               124
  5   Mount Academy        (09)     140        Mount Academy         125
  6   Canton               (10)     145        Schalmont             134
  7   Schalmont            (02)     165        Canton                170
  8   Mexico               (03)     177        Mexico                217
  9   Livonia              (05)     220        Livonia               238
  10  West Hempstead       (08)     265        West Hempstead        240
  11  Southampton          (11)     270        Southampton           257

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the defending Class C Champion and appears to be the solid favorite again.

Overall, Bronxville is projected 2nd ... they finished 2nd to East Aurora last year ... Oneonta is definite challenger for a top-two finish.

Individual Race ... Gage Feider and Evan Feider are the top 2 rated Class C runners entering the race ... Trent Thibault finished 3rd last year and is the top returning runner from that race.

 

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Gage Feider           11   06-C    Alden                184.62   185      181
2   Evan Feider           11   06-C    Alden                184.27   184      179
3   Trent Thibault        11   04-C    Lansing              179.27   179      178
4   Carter Flowers        12   02-C    Schalmont            178.07   178      173
5   Anthony Zazzaro       12   02-C    Stillwater           176.97   177      176
6   Michael Doyle         12   04-C    Chenango Valley      176.87   177      172
7   Mason Curl            11   02-C    Voorheesville        176.67   177      168
8   Aaron Meyer           11   05-C    Williamson           174.33   174      173
9   Caleb Feider          11   06-C    Alden                174.20   174      171
10  Aidan Skuban          10   04-C    Susquehanna Valley   173.63   174      167
11  Zach Greene           11   08-C    Oyster Bay           172.87   173      169
12  Donovan Baird         12   09-C    Mount Academy        172.53   173      167
13  Kieran Mcbride        12   01-C    Bronxville           171.70   172      170
14  Colin Fletcher-Foster 12   04-C    Oneonta              170.00   170      165
15  Ryan Defries          12   06-C    East Aurora          169.94   170      166
16  Shane Fraser          12   06-C    East Aurora          169.25   169      165
17  Tritan Boucher        10   03-C    Skaneateles          168.60   169      165

 

 Boys Class D  -  Three teams in the hunt 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Port Jefferson       (11)      73        Port Jefferson         53
  2   Remsen               (03)      79        Remsen                 78
  3   Maple Grove          (06)      84        Maple Grove            98
  4   Marcus Whitman       (05)     100        Haldane               122
  5   Delhi-S Kortright    (04)     140        Marcus Whitman        132
  6   Haldane              (01)     140        Galway                134
  7   Galway               (02)     140        Delhi-South Kortright 172
  8   Tri-Valley           (09)     189        Tri-Valley            173
  9   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     211        Norwood-Norfolk       209
  10  Ticonderoga          (07)     216        Ticonderoga           238

Pre-Race Analysis ... Three teams are close in the projected team scores ... Port Jefferson, Remsen and Maple Grove ... Port Jefferson is the slight favorite, but any could win (and Marcus Whitman is not that far back).

Individual Race ... Van Furman won last year's Class D race handily and is the top-rated Class D runner (and overall runner in NY State currently).

 

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Van Furman            12   09-D    Tri-Valley           189.03   189      187
2   Ibrahim Ford          11   05-D    Arkport              177.77   178      175
3   Ethan Verbosky        11   06-D    Maple Grove          175.89   176      175
4   Danny Casatelli       11   03-D    Waterville           175.77   176      173
5   Daniel McPherson      11   09-D    Pine Plains          175.57   176      167
6   Maxwell Decker        12   09-D    Pine Plains          175.43   175      171
7   Desmond Hill          9    05-D    Marcus Whitman       173.60   174      169
8   Simon Aguilar         11   05-D    Geneseo              173.03   173      169
9   Andrew Edsall         10   04-D    Marathon             170.10   170      169
10  Owen Powers           11   01-D    Haldane              168.17   168      164
11  Colin Veit            12   11-D    Port Jefferson       167.73   168      165
12  Cody Kent             12   06-D    Frewsburg            166.54   167      164

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  Bethlehem the odds-on favorite 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bethlehem            (02)      25        Bethlehem              20
  2   Northport            (11)      89        Northport              75
  3   Irondequoit          (05)      89        Liverpool              97
  4   Liverpool            (03)      89        Scarsdale             122
  5   Scarsdale            (01)     139        Irondequoit           128
  6   Syosset              (08)     143        Syosset               138
  7   Orchard Park         (06)     172        Monroe Woodbury       146
  8   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     184        Orchard Park          214
  9   Corning              (04)     203        Corning               217

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bethlehem has been racing exceptionally well this season and is the odds-on favorite to win the Class A title ... Bethlehem is highly ranked nationally (currently ranked #1 by MileSplit & DyeStat).

I spent the most time on this race trying to pick the runner-up ... a wide variety of race simulations found little to separate Northport, Irondequoit and Liverpool ... I used a random drew to place them above.

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a very good race in terms of quality ... 23 runners have achieved a speed rating of 130 or higher, and 4 runners have achieved a speed rating of 144 or higher.

Tsadia Bercuvitz is currently the top-rated Class A runner (and is in the overall top 15 females nationally) ... she finished 3rd in last year's race as a freshman ... Zariel Macchia finished 2nd in last year's Class A race (153 speed rating)

This is an excellent individual race.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Tsadia Bercuvitz      10   04-A    Ithaca               152.97   153       149
2   Izzie Sullivan        12   03-A    FM                   145.53   146       141
3   Zariel Macchia        12   11-A    William Floyd        145.43   145       142
4   Lillie Bogdan         12   06-A    Frontier             143.83   144       142
5   Melia Kupchanko       11   06-A    Williamsville N      141.89   142       138
6   Fiona King            8    11-A    Northport            141.43   141       140
7   Leyla Bhusri          11   02-A    Shenendehowa         140.27   140       140
8   Sophia Chromczak      8    02-A    Bethlehem            137.85   138       134
9   Kyleen Brady          11   03-A    Auburn               137.80   138       136
10  Charlotte O'Meara     12   02-A    Bethlehem            137.07   137       134
11  Addison Vellekoop     11   02-A    Guilderland          136.57   137       134
12  Adriana Pettinelli    9    01-A    Scarsdale            135.57   136       134
13  Logan Kuhn            11   02-A    Bethlehem            135.23   135       134
14  Taylor Page           12   03-A    Liverpool            134.37   134       131
15  Hannah Devine         12   05-A    Brighton             133.57   134       130
16  Anna Chrapowitzky     10   02-A    Bethlehem            133.30   133       132
17  Katherine Bannigan    12   02-A    Bethlehem            132.23   132       130
18  Ella Masem            12   11-A    Bellport             132.04   132       122
19  Lexie Cole            10   11-A    Comsewogue           132.03   132       127
20  Gaby Castro           11   01-A    North Rockland       131.37   131       121
21  Abigail Kowalczyk     12   01-A    Roy C. Ketcham       131.07   131       128
22  Erin Moleski          8    02-A    Saratoga             130.87   131       126
23  Haylie Smith          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta       130.10   130       128

 

 Girls Class B  -  Pittsford Sutherland the morning-line favorite. 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pittsford Sutherland (05)      49        Tappan Zee             65
  2   Cornwall             (09)      66        Cornwall               72
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)      76        Pittsford Sutherland   74
  4   Tappan Zee           (01)      89        Burnt Hills            87
  5   Sayville             (11)     118        Sayville               90
  6   South Side           (08)     152        South Side            173
  7   Starpoint            (06)     180        Starpoint             194
  8   Vernon-Verona-Sher   (03)     197        Peru                  225
  9   Owego                (04)     229        Vernon-Verona-Sher    226
  10  Peru                 (07)     244        Owego                 241
  11  Franklin Academy     (10)     336        Franklin Academy      337

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pittsford Sutherland is the favorite based on current speed ratings, with Cornwall, Burnt Hills and Tappan Zee not that far behind.

Individual Race ... Sophia McInnes is the defending Class B champion and the top-rated Class B runner ... Nine girls have a speed rating of 129 or higher.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Sophia McInnes        12   11-B    Bayport-BluePt       146.03   146       141
2   Sophia Semo           12   09-B    Cornwall             136.77   137       135
3   Sloan Wasserman       11   01-B    John Jay CR          134.83   135       134
4   Cali Gabrielson       9    11-B    Mount Sinai          134.27   134       132
5   Aislinn Frazer        12   08-B    Friends Acad         131.73   132       129
6   Joanna Kenney         11   08-B    North Shore          131.35   131       120
7   Ava Pennachio         12   01-B    Eastchester          129.30   129       126
8   Sayla Fives           10   11-B    Harborfields         128.80   129       126
9   Caitlyn Murphy        11   09-B    Wallkill             128.57   129       125
10  Kiera Macintosh       10   02-B    Scotia-Glenville     123.37   123       120
11  Mallory Howe          10   05-B    Pittsford Suth       120.60   121       119
12  Bridget Dunn          11   01-B    Tappan Zee           120.57   121       117
13  Rachel Miller         12   02-B    Mohonasen            120.00   120       117
14  Merrick Bathgate      9    05-B    Pittsford Suth       119.83   120       116
15  Lily Strebel          12   11-B    Westhampton          119.80   120       118

 

 Girls Class C  - East Aurora the odds-on favorite 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      32        East Aurora            62
  2   South Jefferson      (03)      76        Bronxville             64
  3   Bronxville           (01)      99        South Jefferson        91
  4   Voorheesville        (02)     100        Voorheesville         111
  5   Cold Spring Harbor   (08)     138        Norwood-Norfolk       156
  6   Saranac              (07)     166        Saranac               173
  7   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     166        Rondout Valley        179
  8   Wayland Cohocton     (05)     185        Cold Spring Harbor    197
  9   Rondout Valley       (09)     205        Wayland-Cohocton      199
  10  Afton-Harp-Bain      (04)     266        Center Moriches       244
  11  Center Moriches      (11)     267        Afton-Harp-Bain       260

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the defending Class C champion again ... they won last year's Class B race by 55 points ... East Aurora is the odds-on favorite.

Individual Race ... Emilia O'Leary won last year's Class C race and is the favorite to win again ... A talented group of girls are in contention for a top-three finish.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Emilia O'Leary        12   06-C    East Aurora          142.96   143       141
2   Caitlin Thomas        12   01-C    Hastings             136.20   136       133
3   Emma Lewis            10   06-C    Southwestern         131.46   131       125
4   Kirsten Melnik        12   06-C    Springville          129.64   130       127
5   Hannah Governor       11   05-C    Williamson           129.40   129       125
6   Avery Grant           9    02-C    Voorheesville        126.00   126       121
7   Savannah Schmidt      9    02-C    Voorheesville        121.27   121       113
8   Kailyn Houghton       11   06-C    East Aurora          118.87   119       115
9   Ellie Roberts         8    03-C    South Jefferson      118.33   118       112
10  Evelyn Hoak           12   06-C    East Aurora          117.55   118       114

 

 Girls Class D  -  Lake Placid a slight favorite in a close race 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Lake Placid          (07)      73        Mount Academy          52
  2   Mount Academy        (09)      79        Lake Placid            60
  3   Beaver River         (03)      83        Beaver River          105
  4   Clymer-Sherman-Pan   (06)      90        Clymer-Sherman-Pan    124
  5   Delhi-S Kortright    (04)     109        Delhi-S Kortright     128
  6   Arkport/Canaseraga   (05)     135        Arkport/Canaseraga    129
  7   Port Jefferson       (11)     150        Port Jefferson        162
  8   Maple Hill           (02)     179        Maple Hill            176
  9   Tuckahoe             (01)     219        Tuckahoe              202
  10  Brushton-Moira       (10)     284        Brushton-Moira        283

Pre-Race Analysis ...  Like last year, this is an interesting race because a number of runners and teams have various inconsistencies that could significantly affect the team scoring.

As reported by NY MileSplit, the sectional championship speed ratings give a team scoring advantage to Beaver River (63) over Lake Placid (69), Clymer-Sherman-Panama (84) and Mount Academy (85) ..... Various scoring scenarios I looked at (highest individual speed ratings, overall speed ratings, monte carlo analysis selected speed ratings for simulations) varied quite a bit with all four teams winning a varying percentages of races.

I wanted to place Beaver River #1 because they are a Section 3 team (and South Lewis won last year), but that would make me look biased since this year's race is not on a Section 3 course ... So I decided to go with the basic highest/overall seasonal ratings of each runner to guess the team scores.

Individual Race ... Anna Furman has been racing very nicely this season (and she finished 2nd in last year's race), and that makes her the favorite ... Anna Congelli (Tully) had a bit of a break-through race at sectionals.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  

1   Anna Furman           10   09-D    Tri-Valley           134.27   134       133
2   Anna Congelli         11   03-D    Tully                128.00   128       122
3   Violet Bliss          11   09-D    Pine Plains          118.47   118       116
4   Grace Carguello       10   03-D    Pulaski              116.90   117       113
5   McKenna Johnson       10   03-D    Fabius-Pompey        115.43   115       113
6   Myah Keenan           9    03-D    Fabius-Pompey        114.57   115       111
7   Olivia Harmony        11   06-D    West Valley          111.34   111       110
8   Elexa Duggan          9    06-D    Allegany-Lime        110.80   111       108
9   Leah Bray             9    03-D    Herkimer             108.23   108       103
10  Alex Dickson          9    03-D    Tully                107.17   107       98
11  Madeline Waring       8    02-D    Chatham              105.87   106       99
12  Maya Churchman        7    05-D    Arkport/Canaseraga   102.73   103       102