NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fairport             (05)      73        Saratoga Springs       58
  2   Auburn               (03)      77        Monroe-Woodbury        58
  3   Ithaca               (04)      83        Auburn                 81
  4   Saratoga Springs     (02)      94        Fairport               85
  5   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)      99        Arlington             134
  6   Clarence             (06)     134        Ithaca                139
  7   Arlington            (01)     135        Clarence              153
  8   Commack              (11)     171        Commack               183
  9   Port Washington      (08)     242        Port Washington       248


		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is a nice quality race with five teams having a chance ... Fairport has been highly ranked in NY all season and is the favorite for the win ... But four other teams are within striking distance making this race very interesting.

Any team with scorers having "off-races" or exceptionally strong performances could go down or up accordingly ... There are more than 20 team runners with projected speed ratings between 163 and 173 (a scoring sweet spot for this race), so significant displacement could really effect the scoring.

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race ... As can be seen from the speed ratings below ... Nolan McGinn had an excellent race at sectionals last week on the VVS course, and is the favorite  ... Eleven other runners have a seasonal speed rating of 182 or higher ... Logan Schaeffler and Douglas Antaky have been racing very well, and I'm interested to see how this race develops.

 
Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating
1   Nolan McGinn          12   03-A    FM                   193.73   194      192
2   Logan Schaeffler      12   08-A    Calhoun              189.40   189      185
3   Douglas Antaky        12   11-A    Smithtown            186.82   187      186
4   Ethan Green           12   01-A    Arlington            185.60   186      185
5   Jason Kerber          12   08-A    Oceanside            185.33   185      184
6   Jake Passalugo        12   05-A    Fairport             183.33   183      183
7   Jake Gogarty          12   11-A    Bay Shore            183.33   183      179
8   Nicholas Thomas       12   02-A    Niskayuna            182.40   182      180
9   Riley Hubisz          11   04-A    Ithaca               182.40   182      176
10  Bobby Mayclim         12   01-A    Lakeland-Panas       181.97   182      177
11  Thomas Isenovski      10   02-A    Saratoga             181.57   182      180
12  Douglas Cornfield     12   04-A    Corning              181.50   182      178
13  Jake Albert           11   11-A    Lindenhurst          181.45   181      180
14  Noah Hilker           11   04-A    Ithaca               180.67   181      178
15  Christopher Howard    12   03-A    Auburn               180.53   181      174
16  William Smitas        11   02-A    Guilderland          180.30   180      177
17  Claudel Chery         10   01-A    North Rockland       180.20   180      178
18  Ryan Maher            10   03-A    Auburn               180.17   180      180
19  Connor Hitt           12   01-A    Roy C. Ketcham       180.07   180      179
20  Brian Liebowitz       12   11-A    Ward Melville        179.74   180      179
21  Ryan Tuohy            10   01-A    North Rockland       179.70   180      177
22  Ryan Sykes            9    01-A    Horace Greeley       179.40   179      174
23  Oliver Jibb           12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      179.37   179      175
24  Brandon Cruz          12   11-A    Northport            179.14   179      176
25  Aakash Iyer           12   02-A    Guilderland          178.27   178      177

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      65        Burnt Hills            53
  2   Pittsford Sutherland (05)      68        Manhasset              65
  3   Pearl River          (01)      73        Pittsford Sutherland   75
  4   Manhasset            (08)      81        Pearl River            75
  5   Harborfields         (11)     125        Harborfields          117
  6   Cornwall             (09)     142        Cornwall              131
  7   Starpoint            (06)     187        Vestal                204
  8   Vestal               (04)     203        Starpoint             214
  9   Whitesboro           (03)     247        Whitesboro            230
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     300        Franklin Academy      310

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills has won multiple Class B titles (including 2022 & 2021) ... Burnt Hills raced very well on this V-V-S course last year winning handily ... Pittsford  Sutherland is even-up with Burnt Hills based on performance at the sectionals races ... Pearl River and Manhasset are very close making this race look like a toss-up amongst those teams.

Individual Race ... There are 16 Class B runners with season high speed ratings between 182 and 173 ... And the top 7 runners are separated by only 4 speed ratings points making this a potentially close race.

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating 
1   William Tempest       11   05-B    Pittsford Suth       181.87   182      181
2   Jess Joe Augustine    12   11-B    Mount Sinai          180.17   180      179
3   Trevor Green          10   11-B    Rocky Point          179.66   180      175
4   Matt Windecker        12   02-B    Burnt Hills          179.40   179      177
5   Shane Ethakkan        11   01-B    Nanuet               179.37   179      176
6   Nathaniel Fisher      12   05-B    Brockport            178.87   179      178
7   Robby Levy            12   08-B    North Shore          178.38   178      177
8   Hartley Semmes        11   11-B    Harborfields         176.93   177      176
9   Cayden Robleno        12   02-B    Burnt Hills          176.70   177      172
10  Liam Davidson         11   02-B    Queensbury           176.47   176      175
11  Ben Smith             12   02-B    Burnt Hills          175.83   176      169
12  Myles Munro           11   08-B    Seaford              175.77   176      171
13  Trevor Hayes          12   11-B    Westhampton          175.65   176      173
14  Ryan McAlea           11   08-B    Garden City          175.30   175      173
15  Daniel Granville      11   05-B    Greece Arcadia       173.57   174      170
16  Ian Frazer            10   08-B    Wantagh              173.40   173      171

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      53        East Aurora            49
  2   Bronxville           (01)     112        Bronxville             86
  3   Mount Academy        (09)     123        Mount Academy          98
  4   Port Jefferson       (11)     132        Port Jefferson        106
  5   Mexico               (03)     132        Mexico                152
  6   Canton               (10)     151        Oyster Bay            162
  7   Oneonta              (04)     151        Fonda-Fultonville     197
  8   Oyster Bay           (08)     172        Oneonta               197
  9   Fonda-Fultonville    (02)     198        Canton                203
  10  Marcus Whitman       (05)     199        Marcus Whitman        206
  11  Beekmantown          (07)     200        Beekmantown           220

  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora appears to be the solid favorite based on seasonal speed ratings and performance last week at the sectional races.

Overall, Bronxville is projected 2nd, but numerous variations and inconsistencies amongst teams #2 through #7 make these predictions uncertain.

Individual Race ... The top 9 runners are separated by only 6 speed rating points and the top 3 by only 1 speed rating point ... This is another close individual race.

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Christopher Tardugno  12   08-C    Oyster Bay           181.19   181      179
2   Owen Rung             12   06-C    East Aurora          180.37   180      179
3   Donovan Baird         11   09-C    Mount Academy        179.60   180      174
4   Henry Peterson        9    06-C    City Honors          176.60   177      174
5   Trent Thibault        10   04-C    Lansing              175.60   176      173
6   Gage Feider           10   06-C    Alden                175.60   176      173
7   James Tette           12   05-C    Penn Yan             175.33   175      173
8   Dominic Fiacco        12   10-C    Norwood-Norfolk      175.30   175      170
9   Shane Fraser          11   06-C    East Aurora          174.83   175      173
10  Ethan Becker          12   03-C    Mexico               174.20   174      170
11  Drew O'Reilly         12   03-C    Westhill             173.33   173      173
12  Jake Harold           11   01-C    Albertus Magnus      172.83   173      171
13  Jake Kollmer          11   07-C    Saranac Lake         170.97   171      169
14  Joseph McMahon        12   03-C    CBA                  170.77   171      167
15  Evan Feider           10   06-C    Alden                170.61   171      167
16  Alex Santos-Acosta    12   08-C    West Hempstead       169.97   170      169

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pine Plains          (09)      45        Pine Plains            38
  2   South Lewis          (03)      74        South Lewis            58
  3   Maple Grove          (06)      91        Oakfield-Alabama       90
  4   Oakfield-Alabama     (05)      93        Maple Grove            95
  5   Ticonderoga          (07)     139        Trumansburg           122
  6   Trumansburg          (04)     139        Ticonderoga           150
  7   Lake George          (02)     162        Southold              185
  8   Southold             (11)     170        North Salem           197
  9   North Salem          (01)     210        Lake George           199
  10  Brushton-Moira       (10)     287        Brushton-Moira        250

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pine Plains (sometimes known as Stissing Mountain) has been racing nicely all season ... and is the favorite based on seasonal ratings and performance last week at sectionals ... South Lewis is familiar with the V-V-S course and projected to be 2nd..

Individual Race ... Van Furman finished 2nd at last year's Class D race and is the top-rated Class D runner ... Connor Domoy finished a close 3rd at last year's Class D race and is one of 3 runners having a seasonal high speed rating of 180 or more ... Anthony Zarraro has raced very well this season and is a definite contender.

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Van Furman            11   09-D    Tri-Valley           182.90   183      181
2   Connor Domoy          12   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama     181.97   182      180
3   Anthony Zazzaro       11   02-D    Stillwater           179.77   180      176
4   Collin Stafford       12   03-D    South Lewis          179.40   179      178
5   Logan Baker           12   03-D    Waterville           177.93   178      172
6   Oliver Simmons        10   05-D    Harley-Allendale     177.73   178      174
7   Conner Zehr           12   03-D    Beaver River         177.03   177      176
8   John Garrison         12   04-D    Spencer-Van Etten    176.60   177      176
9   Maxwell Decker        11   09-D    Pine Plains          175.33   175      173
10  Ethan Verbosky        10   06-D    Maple Grove          175.31   175      174
11  Jude Rischpater       12   05-D    Bloomfield-Naples    172.33   172      169
12  Ibrahim Ford          10   05-D    Arkport              171.70   172      167
13  Simon Aguilar         10   05-D    Geneseo              170.19   170      165
14  Jared Heggenstaller   12   09-D    Pine Plains          169.37   169      164
15  Ivan Paucay           11   01-D    Alexander Hamilton   168.53   169      169

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga Springs     (02)      29        Saratoga Spring        24
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      69        Northport              80
  3   Northport            (11)      92        Fayetteville-Manlius  101
  4   Churchville-Chili    (05)     123        Monroe-Woodbury       117
  5   Corning              (04)     129        Churchville-Chili     123
  6   Orchard Park         (06)     146        Arlington             142
  7   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     175        Orchard Park          158
  8   Syosset              (08)     187        Corning               170
  9   Arlington            (01)     209        Syosset               209

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Saratoga Springs and Fayetteville-Manlius are once again the top teams in Class A at the State Meet ... Saratoga popped a big performance at last week's sectionals making them a solid favorite.

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a very good race in terms of quality ... 15 runners have achieved a speed rating of 130 or higher, and 4 runners have achieved a speed rating of 146 or higher.

Zariel Macchia is the top-rated Class A runner and the defending State Meet champion ... Lillie Bogdan has been battling some allergy and respiratory issue this fall, but capable of popping a big performance ... Emily Bush is consistently good at a high level.

This is an excellent individual race.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Zariel Macchia        11   11-A    William Floyd        151.67   152       145
2   Lillie Bogdan         11   06-A    Frontier             146.55   147       145
3   Emily Bush            12   02-A    Saratoga             146.10   146       146
4   Alycia Hart           12   02-A    Saratoga             145.87   146       143
5   Tsadia Bercuvitz      9    04-A    Ithaca               138.93   139       132
6   Izzie Sullivan        11   03-A    FM                   138.70   139       134
7   Sarah Lawson          12   04-A    Corning              138.40   138       137
8   Addison Vellekoop     10   02-A    Guilderland          137.63   138       134
9   Kyleen Brady          10   03-A    Auburn               134.60   135       132
10  Leyla Bhusri          10   02-A    Shenendehowa         133.20   133       131
11  Anya Belisle          12   02-A    Saratoga             133.07   133       132
12  Charlotte O'Meara     11   02-A    Bethlehem            130.80   131       126
13  Anna Chrapowitzky     9    02-A    Bethlehem            130.07   130       123
14  Ari Reback            12   05-A    Fairport             130.00   130       124
15  Katherine Bannigan    11   02-A    Bethlehem            129.60   130       127
16  Haylie Smith          11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta       128.90   129       126
17  Emily Wickard         12   11-A    Northport            128.77   129       118
18  Ella Masem            11   11-A    Bellport             127.97   128       124
19  Mia Wickard           9    11-A    Northport            127.43   127       121
20  Abigail Kowalczyk     11   01-A    Roy C. Ketcham       127.17   127       121
21  Hannah Devine         11   05-A    Brighton             127.17   127       124
22  Logan Kuhn            10   02-A    Bethlehem            126.57   127       125

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Sayville             (11)      64        Sayville               41
  2   Burnt Hills          (02)      67        Cornwall               53
  3   Cornwall             (09)      68        Burnt Hills            63
  4   Tappan Zee           (01)      85        Tappan Zee             95
  5   Pittsford Sutherland (05)     103        Pittsford Sutherland  114
  6   South Side           (08)     135        South Side            130
  7   Amherst              (06)     183        Union Endicott        207
  8   Union Endicott       (04)     211        Amherst               220
  9   Chittenango          (03)     225        Chittenango           239
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     300        Franklin Academy      306

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sayville is the defending Class B champion and the favorite based on performance at last week's sectional races ... Burnt Hills has had some seasonal performances that are good enough to win this race and Cornwall is very close ... Looks like a potential toss-up ... Sayville peaked nicely at last year's race on this course, so maybe that makes them the favorite.

Individual Race ... Sophia McInnes is the favorite to win the individual title ... Six girls have a speed rating of 129 or higher (3 from Section 11, and 5 of the top-rated 8 Class B runners are from Section 11).

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Sophia McInnes        11   11-B    Bayport-BluePt       145.24   145       144
2   Cali Gabrielson       8    11-B    Mount Sinai          134.47   134       133
3   Sloan Wasserman       10   01-B    John Jay CR          131.43   131       129
4   Shannon Zugelder      10   06-B    Starpoint            130.62   131       123
5   Mia Paolino           12   02-B    Burnt Hills          130.43   130       128
6   Lily Strebel          11   11-B    Westhampton          129.10   129       127
7   Paige Sheiffele       12   11-B    Mount Sinai          125.83   126       124
8   Isabella Gerena       12   11-B    Sayville             124.71   125       121
9   Joanna Kenney         10   08-B    North Shore          124.02   124       120
10  Bridget Dunn          10   01-B    Tappan Zee           123.93   124       121
11  Jaelyn Chrysler       10   04-B    Owego                121.70   122       119
12  Madyson Moroney       12   01-B    Pearl River          121.20   121       119
13  Kerry Murphy          12   09-B    Cornwall             121.12   121       110
14  Ava Pennachio         11   01-B    Eastchester          120.72   121       119
15  Kiera Macintosh       9    02-B    Scotia-Glenville     119.57   120       118

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      21        East Aurora            22
  2   Adirondack           (03)      91        Adirondack             77
  3   Bronxville           (01)     104        Bronxville             79
  4   Saranac              (07)     120        Saranac               151
  5   Norwood Norfolk      (10)     134        James I. O'Neill      152
  6   James I O'Neill      (09)     162        Norwood Norfolk       171
  7   Afton-Harpursville-BG(04)     197        Afton-Harpursville-BG 187
  8   Wayland-Cohocton     (05)     197        Voorheesville         195
  9   Voorheesville        (02)     198        Mattituck             205
  10  Mattituck            (11)     212        Wayland-Cohocton      214
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)     255        Oyster Bay            260

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the defending Class C champion (and they won the Class B title in 2021) ... East Aurora is the odds-on favorite.

Individual Race ... Emilia O'Leary is the favorite ... A group of girls are in contention for a top-three finish ... Currently, 4 of the top 7 rated Class C runners are from East Aurora.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Emilia O'Leary        11   06-C    East Aurora          136.33   136       136
2   Emma Lewis            9    06-C    Southwestern         132.53   133       123
3   Ainara Schube Barriola11   01-C    Rye Neck             127.90   128       114
4   Catherine Schoeneman  11   06-C    East Aurora          127.05   127       125
5   Kirsten Melnik        11   06-C    Springville          125.73   126       110
6   Kailyn Houghton       10   06-C    East Aurora          125.60   126       122
7   Reiley Pierce         9    06-C    East Aurora          123.19   123       119
8   Elexa Duggan          8    06-C    Allegany-Lime        121.71   122       119
9   Cora Hinsdill         10   03-C    Adirondack           119.37   119       116
10  Maddy Welc            8    07-C    Peru                 117.23   117       116
11  Danielle List         10   01-C    Albertus Magnus      115.57   116       109
12  Caitlin Thomas        11   01-C    Hastings             115.20   115       114
13  Ethne Degan           12   04-C    Afton-Harp-Bain      114.50   115       112

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   South Lewis          (03)      67        South Lewis            53
  2   Delhi-South Kortright(04)      68        Delhi-South Kortright  57
  3   Clymer-Sherman-Panama(06)      89        Mount Academy          69
  4   Arkport-Canaseraga   (05)      89        Arkport-Canaseraga     90
  5   Mount Academy        (09)      97        Pierson               101
  6   Pierson              (11)     131        Clymer-Sherman-Panama 144
  7   Maple Hill           (02)     191        Maple Hill            177
  8   Lake Placid          (07)     206        Lake Placid           224
  9   Brushton-Moira       (10)     245        Tuckahoe              233
  10  Tuckahoe             (01)     252        Brushton-Moira        258


		

Pre-Race Analysis ...  This is an interesting race because a number of runners and teams have various inconsistencies that could significantly affect the team scoring.

South Lewis is the favorite based on performance at last week's sectional races ... South Lewis had their sectional race on the V-V-S course, and has proven they can handle the course nicely ... South Lewis finished 3rd at last year's Class D race while Delhi finished 5th.

Delhi has had some decent seasonal performances indicating they can win this race ... Clymer-Sherman-Panama and Arkport are not that far behind.

Individual Race ... This is an interesting match-up between the top 3 runners ... Brynn Bernard won last year's State Class D race (and in 2021 as well), so she should be considered one of the favorites (she runs very well on the V-V-S course) ... Anna Furman finished 2nd at last year's Class D race, and has shown some nice improvement this XC season ... Andrea Sassatelli finished 4th at last year's Class D race, and has also shown some nice improvement this XC season.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Anna Furman           9    09-D    Tri-Valley           131.73   132       125
2   Andrea Sassatelli     9    02-D    Hoosic Valley        127.10   127       126
3   Brynn Bernard         12   03-D    South Lewis          125.27   125       122
4   Olivia Harmony        10   06-D    West Valley          120.88   121       116
5   Hannah Governor       10   05-D    Williamson           120.33   120       116
6   Avery Blanchard       12   07-D    Ticonderoga          119.40   119       116
7   Catherine Staley      11   05-D    Geneseo              117.87   118       111
8   Anna Congelli         10   03-D    Tully                115.90   116       113
9   Leah Mays             8    06-D    Silver Creek         112.25   112       109
10  Ellie Lees            12   04-D    Delhi                112.00   112       103
11  Sophia Squires        12   02-D    Hoosic Valley        110.03   110       106