Foot Locker Nationals Speed Rating Preview 2023

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing at Foot Locker Nationals 2023 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating for betting purposes (a "morning-line" or "seed-time" of sorts)
 ... Available Ratings - All speed ratings from the season in the TullyRunners database (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

BOYS - Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings - 2023

General Comment ... Often the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be a bit higher than those shown in table above ... To finish in top places at this National race typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top national competition on a course in good condition under good weather conditions can yield top performances (often season-best performances).

Overall, I think a bunch of guys could win this race or finish top three ... I think the 4 favorites in the morning-line are Ryan Pajak, Drew Griffith, Cameron Todd and Patrick Koon ... Others are close and could win.

Last week's Nike Team Nationals at Glendoveer Golf Course in Portland, Oregon yielded some high speed ratings for some runners competing in this Foot Locker National race ... For example, Cameron Todd finished 2nd at NXN (15:18.2 ... 197 speed rating) ... But if the race goes out fast with this quality of competition, some runners may post even better speed ratings ... Four Boys entered in Foot Locker Nationals raced at NXN last week.

Balboa Park is different than the NXN Glendoveer course:

• Glendoveer was wet & muddy last week ... Based on inherent speed at Balboa Park Nationals in recent years, the Balboa Park course may be similar in speed when compared to the muddy Glendoveer of 2023 depending on conditions (and Glendoveer 2023 was even slower for the girls who ran after the boys).
• Speed ratings are determined by time differences between runners of known ability
• Balboa Park has a "Separation section" (the big uphill & downhill run twice ... especially the 2nd time)
• Glendoveer has nothing comparable to the "Separation section" at Balboa which frequently separates the top runners by significant margins
• Separation at the top end increases the time differences between runners which affects the speed ratings ... and yields higher values at the top

Some Quick Notes about NXN Nationals 2023:

• 91 runners were less than one minute behind winner JoJo Jourdon (15:16.5 ... 198 speed rating)
• 17 runners were less than 15 seconds behind winner JoJo Jourdon
• Very little separation amongst the boy runners on a muddy course (which is a bit abnormal) ... In contrast, the NXN girl's race did have some separation at the top end resulting in 2 high speed ratings of 164 and 162.

 ... 25 of the 40 Boys entered at Foot Locker Nationals 2023 having at least one speed rating of 190 or higher this season ... and that makes the race competitive and interesting .

GIRLS - Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings - 2023

General Comments

Nine Girls in this year's Field field competed at NXN Nationals Last Week & Two at RunningLane 2023 Last Week:

Runners at NXN Nationals:
(Speed Rating - Place)
154 - 5 - Rachel Forsyth
149 - 14- Maddie Gardiner
150 - 13- Allie Zealand
149 - 15- Elizabeth Leachman
148 - 17- Libby Dowty
147 - 19- Addison Knoblauch
142 - 27- Reese Dalton
137 - 37- Payton Meineke
135 - 50- Samantha Humphries

Runners at RunningLane:
143 - 5 - Addison Dorenkamp
143 - 6 - Nicki Southerland
 

Elizabeth Leachman and Rachel Forsyth were the two favorites entering NXN last week, however, they set too fast an early pace for the muddy conditions at NXN which compromised their chances ... Despite their finishing places at NXN, Elizabeth Leachman and Rachel Forsyth are the morning-line favorites for Foot Locker.

Ellie Shea is the top returning runner from last year's Foot Locker (had a 165 speed rating at that race) ... But she has had one XC race this season (Foot Locker Northeast, 2nd, 150 speed rating) and one indoor track race (a 3000 meter 9:26.13 at the BU track last week) which are not quite up to her performance levels from last year ... So it's hard to predict her finish at this year's Foot Locker.

Six other girls have have posted speed ratings of 153 or higher this season and are real contenders for a top 3 finish ... Abby Faith Cheeseman is the #2 returner from last year and is lightly raced this season (which could be good) ... Allie Zealand was 8th at Foot Locker last year, and didn't race until the post-season due to her home-school status (she could be very good after a "race fitness session" in last week's NXN mud since she is lightly raced).

Zariel Macchia finished 6th at last year's Foot Locker and is very consistent at a high level, and is from New York ... Ruth White, Claire Stegall and Mary Bonner Dalton are very talented ... and Chiara Dailey (14th at Foot Locker last year as a freshman) is very familiar with the Balboa course.

This is a Top-Quality Race!

 ... 14 of the 40 Girls entered in Foot Locker Nationals 2023 having at least one speed rating of 150 or higher this season ...