NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Corning              (04)      73        Corning                60
  2   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)      82        Monroe-Woodbury        77
  3   Fairport             (05)      86        Northport              85
  4   Saratoga             (02)      92        Fairport               90
  5   Northport            (11)      97        Saratoga Springs       99
  6   Calhoun              (08)     143        Arlington             129
  7   Auburn               (03)     169        Auburn                186
  8   Arlington            (01)     169        Calhoun               190
  9   Orchard Park         (06)     180        Orchard Park          203

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is a nice quality race with five teams having a chance ... Corning has been highly ranked in NY all season and is the favorite for the win ... But four other teams are within striking distance making this race very interesting.

Any team with scorers having "off-races" or exceptionally strong performances could down or up accordingly ... There are more than 20 team runners with projected speed ratings between 163 and 173 (a scoring sweet spot for this race), so significant displacement could really effect the scoring.

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race ... As can be seen from the speed ratings below ... Nolan McGinn and Solomon Holden-Betts had an excellent race at sectionals last week on the VVS course (both had speed ratings of 193) ... Ten other runners have a seasonal speed rating of 184 or higher.

 
Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating
1   Nolan McGinn          11   03-A    FM                   193.70   194      192
2   Solomon Holden-Betts  12   03-A    Baldwinsville        193.03   193      191
3   Collin Gilstrap       12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      189.63   190      187
4   Jake Passalugo        11   05-A    Fairport             187.30   187      186
5   Ethan Green           11   01-A    Arlington            186.87   187      180
6   Collin Catherwood     12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      186.27   186      184
7   Anthony Otis          12   03-A    FM                   186.07   186      184
8   Mason Talarico        12   02-A    Saratoga             185.67   186      184
9   Ashton Bange          12   04-A    Corning              184.40   184      182
10  Matthew Doherty       12   01-A    Mamaroneck           184.17   184      173
11  Logan Schaeffler      11   08-A    Calhoun              184.09   184      183
12  Peter McMahon         12   03-A    West Genesee         183.70   184      183
13  Sam Young             12   01-A    Mamaroneck           183.10   183      177
14  Connor Thomas         12   05-A    Webster Thomas       181.00   181      179
15  Jake Gogarty          11   11-A    Bay Shore            180.43   180      179
16  Ryan Tuohy            9    01-A    North Rockland       180.13   180      175
17  Bobby Mayclim         11   01-A    Lakeland-Panas       179.60   180      177
18  Joseph Bertola        12   06-A    Orchard Park         179.21   179      178
19  Connor Hitt           11   01-A    Roy C. Ketcham       179.00   179      176
20  Noah Bender           12   01-A    Fox Lane             177.90   178      177
21  Evan Lacey            12   05-A    Webster Thomas       177.80   178      177
22  Cameron Bogdan        12   06-A    Frontier             177.78   178      176
23  Owen Willard          11   05-A    Fairport             177.47   177      175
24  Jordan Altman         12   08-A    Syosset              176.68   177      175
25  Ryan Hesler           12   02-A    Niskayuna            176.59   177      175
26  Douglas Antaky        11   11-A    Smithtown            176.09   176      175

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      68        Burnt Hills            35
  2   Vestal               (04)     100        Vestal                 87
  3   McQuaid              (05)     114        McQuaid                91
  4   Goshen               (09)     115        Harborfields           98
  5   Pearl River          (01)     120        Pearl River           119
  6   Harborfields         (11)     120        Jamesville Dewitt     166
  7   Garden City          (08)     128        Starpoint             171
  8   Starpoint            (06)     159        Goshen                180
  9   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     183        Garden City           190
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     273        Franklin Academy      276

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills has won multiple Class B titles (including 2021), and is the solid favorite to win again ... Vestal is projected to finish 2nd ... and the next four to five spots is very close looking like a toss-up amongst those teams.

Individual Race ... Collin Brown and Maximus Haynia are the top-rated Class B runners in NY State ... But the top five runners are separated by only 5 speed ratings points making this a potentially close race.

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating 
1   Collin Brown          12   05-B    McQuaid              184.70   185      180
2   Maximus Haynia        12   11-B    Westhampton          183.30   183      180
3   Kevin Beltran         11   08-B    Valley Stream N      180.30   180      180
4   Liam Cody             12   04-B    Vestal               179.60   180      174
5   Robby Levy            11   08-B    North Shore          179.04   179      175
6   Patrick Ford          12   01-B    Brewster             175.70   176      173
7   Colin Burke           12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon     175.23   175      175
8   Matt Windecker        11   02-B    Burnt Hills          174.88   175      173
9   Tim Smith             12   04-B    Vestal               173.00   173      168
10  Sam Sturge            12   08-B    North Shore          172.81   173      172
11  Trevor Hayes          11   11-B    Westhampton          172.68   173      170
12  William Tempest       10   05-B    Pittsford Suth       171.70   172      170
13  John Ortiz            12   08-B    Carey                171.46   171      167
14  Zackary Gopie         12   08-B    Floral Park          170.91   171      169
15  Donovan Baird         10   09-B    Mount Academy        170.27   170      170

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)      89        Bronxville             78
  2   Alden                (06)      89        Saranac Lake          103
  3   Saranac Lake         (07)     116        James I O'Neill       109
  4   James O'Neill        (09)     116        Alden                 114
  5   Fonda-Fultonville    (02)     131        Fonda-Fultonville     127
  6   Oyster Bay           (08)     131        Norwood-Norfolk       155
  7   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     153        Oneonta               158
  8   Oneonta              (04)     176        Oyster Bay            165
  9   Marcus Whitman       (05)     190        Mattituck             195
  10  Vernon-Verona-Sher   (03)     197        Marcus Whitman        196
  11  Mattituck            (11)     220        Vernon-Verona-Sher    221

  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like some previous years, there was some uncertainty (variations) in projecting the Class C race ... Race simulations noted swings in scores based on performance at the #4 and #5 positions in combination with displacement from other teams (and that could make betting the race interesting).

Overall, Bronxville and Alden look generally even-up ... So I used the "tried-and-true" method to decide who to place at the #1 position ... I flipped a coin ... The #3 and #4 (and #5 and #6 positions) were similar.

Individual Race ... Christopher Tardugno, Bennett Melita and James Tette are the top-ranked Class C runners.

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Christopher Tardugno  11   08-C    Oyster Bay           180.29   180      177
2   Bennett Melita        12   02-C    Fonda-Fultonvill     177.53   178      174
3   James Tette           11   05-C    Penn Yan             176.67   177      175
4   Joseph Lavelle        12   01-C    Rye Neck             172.87   173      171
5   Drew O'Reilly         11   03-C    Westhill             171.40   171      170
6   Trevor Zappulla       12   11-C    Mattituck            170.42   170      163
7   Carson Darling        10   09-C    James O'Neill        170.07   170      166
8   Nate Lewis            12   06-C    Southwestern         169.94   170      167
9   Jace Stuart           12   04-C    Owego                169.13   169      160
10  Dominic Fiacco        11   10-C    Norwood-Norfolk      169.01   169      167
11  Kornel Smith          12   01-C    Briarcliff           168.97   169      164
12  Owen Rung             11   06-C    East Aurora          168.81   169      167
13  Sam Ash               12   07-C    Saranac Lake         168.73   169      168
14  Anthony Zazzaro       10   02-C    Stillwater           168.69   169      165
15  Alex Searle           12   01-C    Pleasantville        167.80   168      167
16  Carter Flowers        10   02-C    Schalmont            167.10   167      163
17  Matheu Dettenreider   11   02-C    Fonda-Fultonvill     165.59   166      158
18  Ty Sanges             11   02-C    Fonda-Fultonvill     164.58   165      158

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Tri-Valley           (09)      53        Tri-Valley             39
  2   Arkport              (05)      71        Arkport-Canaseraga     72
  3   Port Jefferson       (11)      82        Port Jefferson         85
  4   Delhi                (04)      92        Sauquoit Valley       109
  5   Frewsburg            (06)     103        Frewsburg             114
  6   Sauquoit Valley      (03)     125        Delhi                 132
  7   Lake George          (02)     170        Lake George           162
  8   Ticonderoga          (07)     209        Ticonderoga           199
  9   Brushton-Moira       (10)     230        Haldane               249
  10  Haldane              (01)     270        Brushton-Moira        251
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tri-Valley and Arkport-Canaseraga ran 1st and 2nd at last year's Class D race... and the projections are same for this year's race.

Individual Race ... Adam Furman finished 2nd at last year's Class D race, and is the solid favorite entering this race (he has a 191 speed rating earlier this season). 

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Adam Furman           12   09-D    Tri-Valley           190.83   191      186
2   Connor Domoy          11   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama     183.97   184      180
3   Jude Rischpater       11   05-D    Bloomfield-Naples    178.87   179      176
4   Drew Reigelsperger    12   05-D    Bloomfield-Naples    176.00   176      174
5   Roan Kelly            11   06-D    Randolph             175.39   175      173
6   Kole Owens            12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley      170.63   171      167
7   Van Furman            10   09-D    Tri-Valley           170.30   170      168
8   Vincent VanMaaren     12   04-D    Delhi                169.33   169      168
9   Luke Tighe            12   03-D    Pulaski              169.23   169      167
10  Alton Francisco       12   04-D    Delhi                168.90   169      166
11  Ethan Verbosky        9    06-D    Maple Grove          168.49   168      163
12  Conner Zehr           11   03-D    Beaver River         166.90   167      165
13  Mason Allee-Castro    12   06-D    Barker               165.11   165      161
14  Pierce Young          12   05-D    Arkport              164.70   165      160
15  Logan Clark           10   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama     162.00   162      159
16  Braydon Brewster      12   05-D    Arkport              160.67   161      157

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga Springs     (02)      22        Saratoga Springs       23
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      57        Fayetteville-Manlius   79
  3   Northport            (11)     119        Northport             104
  4   Orchard Park         (06)     129        Corning               130
  5   Corning              (04)     135        Orchard Park          132
  6   Fairport             (05)     151        Fairport              148
  7   East Meadow          (08)     154        North Rockland        161
  8   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     169        Monroe-Woodbury       175
  9   North Rockland       (01)     185        East Meadow           215

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius are once again the top teams in Class A ... Based on recent performances, Saratoga is probably the top team in the nation.

Like the boys, there are only nine teams in the Class A race so that tightens the scores up somewhat ... Northport, Orchard Park and Corning are not separated by much.

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a great race in terms of quality ... 20 runners have achieved a speed rating of 130 or higher, and 7 runners have achieved a speed rating of 140 or higher.

Izzie Sullivan (FM) is the top-rated Class A runner, but she missed her league championship meet and then finished 2nd (with a 137 speed rating) to Kate Puman (CNS) at the Section 3 Meet, so I'm not sure she is 100% right now ... Kate Puman has achieved a 150 speed rating this season, but close behind her are Lillie Bogdan (Frontier), Emily Bush (Saratoga) and Zariel Macchia (William Floyd) .. All runners capable of seriously challenging for the win.

This is clearly one of the best individual races of the day ... and how the race unfolds (in terms of pace and strategy) could determine the winner.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Izzie Sullivan        10   03-A    FM                   151.13   151       148
2   Kate Putman           12   03-A    CNS                  149.60   150       146
3   Lillie Bogdan         10   06-A    Frontier             147.56   148       147
4   Emily Bush            11   02-A    Saratoga             147.10   147       146
5   Zariel Macchia        10   11-A    William Floyd        143.23   143       139
6   Sheridan Wheeler      12   02-A    Saratoga             142.33   142       139
7   Gabby Putman          10   03-A    CNS                  140.70   141       134
8   Alycia Hart           11   02-A    Saratoga             137.29   137       130
9   Kyleen Brady          9    03-A    Auburn               136.53   137       132
10  Sarah Lawson          11   04-A    Corning              134.70   135       133
11  Anya Belisle          11   02-A    Saratoga             134.37   134       134
12  Miranda Gatto         12   06-A    Niagara-Wheat        134.28   134       130
13  McKinley Wheeler      12   02-A    Saratoga             134.03   134       133
14  Hannah Kaercher       12   03-A    FM                   133.87   134       129
15  Kaleigh Higgins       12   02-A    Shaker               133.73   134       128
16  Tsadia Bercuvitz      8    04-A    Ithaca               132.70   133       131
17  Ana (Vicky) Mordvinova12   04-A    Elmira District      132.13   132       130
18  Noel Barlette         11   06-A    Orchard Park         131.87   132       131
19  Rylee Davis           12   02-A    Bethlehem            131.17   131       127
20  Charlotte O'Meara     10   02-A    Bethlehem            129.60   130       123

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Cornwall             (09)      54        Sayville               49
  2   South Side           (08)      78        Cornwall               78
  3   Sayville             (11)      81        Somers                 83
  4   Scotia-Glenville     (02)      95        Scotia-Glenville      102
  5   Pittsford Sutherland (05)     101        South Side            112
  6   Somers               (01)     117        Pittsford Sutherland  123
  7   Starpoint            (06)     165        Starpoint             177
  8   New Hartford         (03)     182        New Hartford          190
  9   Vestal               (04)     279        Vestal                274
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     313        Franklin Academy      316

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Cornwall finished 4th in the State Class A race last year, and they dropped to Class B this season ... Cornwall has the top runner in NY State (Karrie Baloga), and starting the team score with a "one" is a nice advantage.

The two teams from Long Island  (South Side and Sayville) appear nearly even-up to take the #2 team position, with Scotia Glenville and Pittsford Sutherland not far behind.

Individual Race ... Karrie Baloga is the odds-on favorite.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Karrie Baloga         12   09-B    Cornwall             166.77   167       164
2   Sophia McInnes        10   11-B    Bayport-BluePt       137.60   138       135 - not entered
3   Ava Pennachio         10   01-B    Eastchester          124.63   125       117
4   Maddie Powers         12   02-B    Queensbury           124.07   124       123
5   Rachel Miller         10   02-B    Mohonasen            123.13   123       121
6   Aislinn Frazer        10   08-B    Friends Acad         122.97   123       119
7   Mia Paolino           11   02-B    Burnt Hills          122.54   123       121
8   Madyson Moroney       11   01-B    Pearl River          122.47   122       119
9   Shannon Zugelder      9    06-B    Starpoint            122.45   122       119
10  Kiera Macintosh       8    02-B    Scotia-Glenville     122.40   122       117
11  Logan Barsalow        12   02-B    Averill Park         120.92   121       118
12  Kerry Murphy          11   09-B    Cornwall             117.68   118       115
13  Claire Bohan          11   08-B    South Side           117.03   117       112
14  Cameron Coletti       12   08-B    South Side           116.74   117       114
15  Sophia Semo           10   09-B    Cornwall             116.70   117       110
16  Mullane Baumiller     11   11-B    Sayville             116.28   116       115
17  Sofia Fenton          11   01-B    Tappan Zee           115.54   116       107

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      51        East Aurora            53
  2   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     105        Pleasantville          93
  3   Pleasantville        (01)     114        James I O'Neill        97
  4   James O'Neill        (09)     115        Norwood Norfolk       114
  5   Cazenovia            (03)     125        Cazenovia             147
  6   Saranac              (07)     166        Saranac               170
  7   Owego                (04)     180        Owego                 172
  8   Schuylerville        (02)     180        Schuylerville         177
  9   Mattituck            (11)     221        Mattituck             202
  10  Dansville            (05)     245        Dansville             241
  11  Cold Spring Harbor   (08)     245        Cold Spring Harbor    255
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora won the State Class B title last year and drops to Class C this season ... they are the solid favorite ... The one concern in their team score above is the performance of last year's top runner (Emilia O'Leary) who's recent speed ratings suggest she is not 100% (and that could raise the team score) ... But even without her, East Aurora would be the favorite.

Lots of variations possible in this race ... The #2 to #5 teams above are not really separated by that much, and some good or "off" performances could scrambled the finish order a lot.

Individual Race ... Angelina Napoleon (Allegany-Limestone) is the odds-on favorite ... Erin Boler has raced very nicely this season.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Angelina Napoleon     12   06-C    Allegany-Lime        148.31   148       146
2   Erin Boler            12   02-C    Albany Academy       131.64   132       129
3   Emilia O'Leary        10   06-C    East Aurora          130.46   130       126
4   Emma Lewis            8    06-C    Southwestern         124.60   125       118
5   Kirsten Melnik        10   06-C    Springville          124.17   124       120
6   Kylie Bowman          11   06-C    Newfane              123.06   123       120
7   Cora Hinsdill         9    03-C    Adirondack           121.90   122       116
8   Katelyn Wilkes        12   05-C    Midlakes             121.43   121       114
9   Ethne Degan           11   04-C    Afton-Harp-Bain      119.67   120       112
10  Brynn Hogan           12   04-C    Susquehanna Valley   119.13   119       118
11  Kailyn Houghton       9    06-C    East Aurora          116.14   116       115
12  Sharon Colbert        12   10-C    Norwood-Norfolk      115.10   115       108
13  Sofia Mulada          10   08-C    Cold Spring Har      112.32   112       111
14  Danielle List         9    01-C    Albertus Magnus      111.50   112       110

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Voorheesville        (02)      54        Voorheesville          53
  2   Addison              (05)      72        Addison                79
  3   South Lewis          (03)     100        South Lewis            97
  4   Clymer-Sherman       (06)     100        Clymer-Sherman        110
  5   Delhi                (04)     116        Delhi                 118
  6   Lake Placid          (07)     155        Pierson               129
  7   Pierson              (11)     155        Mount Academy         158
  8   Mount Academy        (09)     162        Lake Placid           162
  9   Brushton Moira       (10)     245        Brushton Moira        248
  10  Tuckahoe             (01)     280        Tuckahoe              271

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Voorheesville finished 4th in the State Class C race last year and drop to Class D this season.

Addison is not that far behind Voorheesville, and is within striking distance based on race simulations ... There is enough speed rating variation amongst runners ... and displacement by runners from other teams could be a deciding factor in determining the winner ... But Voorheesville is the favorite.

Individual Race ... Faith Skowvron (Addison) had a "break-out" performance at sectionals (winning by 42 seconds) and her highest ever speed rating ... Mariem Sayahi (Voorheesville) and Brynn Bernard (South Lewis) are very close and serious contenders for the win ... Brynn Bernard won last year's State Class D race, so she could be considered the slight favorite.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Faith Skowvron        12   05-D    Addison              122.53   123       117
2   Mariem Sayahi         12   02-D    Voorheesville        121.43   121       119
3   Brynn Bernard         11   03-D    South Lewis          121.33   121       119
4   Anna Furman           8    09-D    Tri-Valley           117.20   117       114
5   Sophia Squires        11   02-D    Hoosic Valley        112.10   112       111
6   Andrea Sassatelli     8    02-D    Hoosic Valley        111.52   112       111
7   Ellie Lees            11   04-D    Delhi                111.00   111       107
8   Tea Malone-Bonacci    12   05-D    Harley-Allendale     108.83   109       107
9   Emma Szarek           8    03-D    Westmoreland         107.87   108       107
10  Kylie Paylor          12   05-D    Clyde-Savannah       107.30   107       103
11  Gretel Hilson-Schneide11   04-D    Delhi                106.33   106       103
12  Katie Edinger         12   03-D    Tully                104.77   105       101
13  Lilly Rother          11   07-D    Lake Placid          104.67   105       103
14  Lindsey Wight         10   02-D    Voorheesville        102.87   103       98