National Pre-Season XC 2022 GIRLS Teams - National 2022 Bill Meylan (July 27, 2022) |
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season. Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2022 race results are what count. I did add some Regional Projections
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National GIRLS Teams 2022 |
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2022 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 32 teams School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 Saratoga Springs NY 90 New York 2 Buchanan (CS) CA 130 California 3 Niwot CO 165 Southwest 4 Arapahoe CO 170 Southwest 5 York IL 230 Midwest 6 Cuthbertson NC 340 Southeast 7 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 340 New York 8 Wayzata MN 360 Heartland 9 Jesuit Oregon OR 365 Northwest 10 Valor Christian CO 375 Southwest 11 Lucas Lovejoy TX 405 South 12 Flower Mound TX 410 South 13 Boise Senior ID 425 Northwest 14 Minnetonka MN 435 Heartland 15 Columbus North IN 440 Midwest 16 Olathe West KS 440 Heartland 17 North Allegheny PA 465 Northeast 18 Prospect IL 470 Midwest 19 Summit OR 470 Northwest 20 Cardinal Gibbons NC 480 Southeast 21 Great Oak (SS) CA 490 California 22 Mountain Brook HS AL 490 Southeast 23 Brentwood High TN 500 Southeast 24 Oak Ridge (SJ) CA 505 California 25 Mountain Vista CO 510 Southwest 26 Granite Bay (SJ) CA 515 California 27 Newbury Park (SS) CA 520 California 28 Southlake Carroll TX 520 South 29 Cherry Creek CO 530 Southwest 30 Edina MN 535 Heartland 31 Campolindo (NC) CA 535 California 32 Springville UT 535 Southwest The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled a lot: Edina MN Heartland Cicero-North Syracuse NY New York (** added due to Hannah Boyle running) Saint Paul Highland Park MN Heartland Holliston MA Northeast Morgantown WV Southeast Colleyville Heritage TX South JSerra Catholic (SS) CA California Bethlehem NY New York Naperville Central IL Midwest Prior Lake MN Heartland Naperville North IL Midwest Weddington NC Southeast Carmel IN Midwest Assumption KY Southeast St. Pius X GA Southeast Dubuque Hempstead IA Heartland American Fork UT Southwest Bolles HS FL Southeast Dana Hills (SS) CA California Loyola Academy IL Midwest The Woodlands TX South Minster OH Midwest McLean VA Southeast Eastlake WA Northwest Highland High AZ Southwest Perrysburg OH Midwest Haddonfield Memorial HS NJ Northeast Klein TX South Tahoma Senior WA Northwest Lincoln East NE Heartland Cherokee HS NJ Northeast Corner Canyon UT Southwest Shenendehowa NY New York Mountain Ridge UT Southwest Glastonbury CT Northeast North Hunterdon HS NJ Northeast West Springfield VA Southeast Bentonville AR South Rocky Mountain ID Northwest State College Area PA Northeast Desert Vista AZ Southwest (** dropped, Lauren Ping not running) |
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Comments on the TOP 32 Teams: |
#1 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga has competed at NXN Nationals in 14 of the 16 years that NXN has operated ... In 2019, Saratoga won NXN Nationals by 82 points and 4 of the 7 runners from NXN 2019 are still on the team ... Last fall, Saratoga won the NY State Class A race, the NY Federations Champ race and the NXR-New York race ... The Saratoga girls team did not run any post-season XC races last year ... But their speed ratings indicated Saratoga was possibly the top team in the nation ... Saratoga is expected to be at least 7 runners deep at a high level. ... Additional NY data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
147 - Emily Bush - 11 #2 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan finished 5th at NXN in 2019 ... Last year, Buchanan was the top team in California State Meet Merge ... and Buchanan race very well at the RunningLane Champion to finish 2nd to Niwot ... The top six runners from RunningLane return which makes Buchanan one of the best teams nationally entering the XC season ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 145 - Sydney Sundgren - 12 #3 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last year, Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship and won the RunningLane Championship ... Niwot did not have an opportunity to race Saratoga head-to-head in a National race last year, but their speed ratings suggest it could have been a competitive battle. Niwot lost three seniors to graduation including top runner Eva Klingbeil, but they are a deep and talented team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Mia Prok - 11 #4 - Arapahoe CO ... Arapahoe won at the Colorado State 5A Championship last year (beating Cherry Creek) and Arapahoe finished a very good 3rd at RunningLane Championships ... they return their top 6 runners from those races which makes them a strong national contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 145 - Emily Lamontagne - 12 #5 - York IL ... York won the Illinois State 3A title and the NXR Midwest Regional last year ... and York finished a very good 4th at the RunningLane Championshps ... York returns 5 of their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 134 - Katherine Klimek - 11 #6 - Cuthbertson NC ... Cuthbertson won the North Carolina State 4A Championship last fall, and then finished 14th at the RunningLane Championships ... Cuthbertson returns their top 6 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Alyssa Preisano - 12 #7 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been the NXN champion in 11 of the last 14 NXN National races ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd to Saratoga at both the NY State Class A race and NY Federation Championship race ... The top duo of Hannah Kaercher and Izzie Sullivan may be the top team duo in the US ... FM has the ability to reload, so they get credit for that and their success at NXN ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 150 - Izzie Sullivan - 10 #8 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2018, 7th 2017 won NXN Nationals in 2013 ... Last year, Wayzata lost top runner (Abbey Nechanicky) to an injury early in the season ... but Wayzata still finished 2nd at Minnesota States 3A (to Edina) and 5th at NXR Heartland ... They return their entire team from those races and add Abbey Nechanicky ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 148 - Abbey Nechanicky - 12 #9 - Jesuit Oregon OR ... Jesuit Oregon finished 11th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last year, Jesuit Oregon finished 2nd (to Summit) at the Oregon State 6A race (by only 3 points) ... They then won the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase before finishing 6th at RunningLane Championships ... Jesuit Oregon lost their top runner to graduation (Chloe Foerster), but returns the rest of their team ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Emma Bennett - 10 #10 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 8th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Valor Christian finished 3rd at the Colorado State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd at NXR Southwest and 16th at RunningLane Championships ... They return their entire team from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 146 - Brooke Wilson - 12 #11 - Lucas Lovejoy TX ... Lucas Lovejoy was the Texas State 5A Champions last fall, and then finished 19th at RunningLane Championships ... Lucas Lovejoy returns 5 of their top 6 finishers from States including their top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 134 - Amy Morefield - 12 #12 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound was the Texas State 6A Champion last fall, and then finished 7th at RunningLane Championships (without scoring runner Nicole Humphries) ... Flower Mound returns 4 of their top 6 finishers from States, but lose top runner (Natalie Cook) to graduation ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 138 - Samantha Humphries - 11 #13 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior won the Idaho State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd (to Jesuit Oregon) at the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase without one of their top runners (Sammie Smith) ... They return 4 of 7 from States including their top 2 (I assumed some improvement at the #4 and #5 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Sammy Smith - 11 #14 - Minnetonka MN ... Minnetonka finished 7th at NXR Heartland ... 6 of 7 runners return ... Minnetonka was fairly highly ranked entering the 2021 season, but top runner (Maya Mor) was injured and unable to compete last year ... I believe she will be able to compete this coming season (based on track results), and that improves my initial outlook for Minnetonka ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 137 - Maya Mor - 12 #15 - Columbus North OH ... Columbus North won the Indiana State Championship last year, and then finished 3rd at NXR Midwest (won by York IL) and 12th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 4 of their top 6, including their top 3 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 138 - Julia Kiesler - 12 #16 - Olathe West KS ... Olathe West won the Kansas State 6A Championship last year, and then finished 4th at NXR Heartland ... They return their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
128 - Bree Newport - 11 #17 - North Allegeny PA ... North Allegeny was the Pennsylvania AAA Championship last year ... the team did not compete post-season ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
132 - Wren Kucler - 10 #18 - Prospect IL ... Prospect IL finished 2nd (to York) at the Illinois State 3A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd at NXR Midwest (won by York IL) ... They return 6 of 7 from the State Meet and all 6 from NXR Midwest ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Lily Ginsberg - 11 #19 - Summit OR ... Summit OR finished 2nd at NXN in 2019 after winning impressively in 2018 ... Summit won the Oregon State 6A Championship last year (beating Jesuit by 3 points) ... they then finished 3rd at the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase (behind Jesuit and Boise Senior) ... They return 4 runners from the State Meet Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
133 - Ella Thorsett - 12 #20 - Cardinal Gibbons NC ... Cardinal Gibbons NC finished 3rd (to Cuthbertson & Weddington) at the North Carolina State 4A Championship last year, and then won the NXR Southeast Regional ... They return all 5 scorers from the State Meet and top 4 from NXR Southeast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
140 - Hannah Rae Shaffer - 10 #21 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 9th at NXN in 2019, 8th in 2018, 8th in 2017, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 (But Coach Doug Soles is now in Herriman UT) ... Great Oak finished 10th in the California State Meet Merge last year (behind winner Buchanan) ... Great Oak finished 25th at RunningLane Championships ... They returns 6 of 7 from both meets including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 133 - Kelli Gaffney - 12 #22 - Mountain Brook AL ... Mountain Brook AL won the Alabama State 7A Championship last year, but the team did not compete in post-season (although top runner, Reagan Riley, did finish 21st at RunningLane Champs) ... They return 6 of their top 7 from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
142 - Reagan Riley - 12 #23 - Brentwood High TN ... Brentwood High TN won the Tennessee State 3A Championship last year, and then finished 28th at RunningLane Championships ... They return all 5 scorers from both meets ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 124 - Lydia Cromwell - 10 #24 - Oak Ridge (SJ) CA ... Oak Ridge (SJ) CA finished 4th in California State Meet Merge last year, and then finished 8th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 5 of 7 from both meets, but lose 2 of their top 4 scorers to graduation ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 130 - Quinn Walker - 12 #25 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 4th at the Colorado State 5A Championship (behind Arapahoe, Cherry Creek and Valor Christian), and then finished 7th at NXR-Southwest and 24th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 6 of the top 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Peyton Adams - 10 #26 - Granite Bay (SJ) CA ... Granite Bay (SJ) CA finished 8th in California State Meet Merge last year ... The team did not compete post-season ... They return all scorers from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Carly Foster - 12 #27 - Newbury Park (SS) CA ... Newbury Park (SS) CA finished 2nd in California State Meet Merge last year (behind Buchanan) ... Newbury Park finished 9th at RunningLane Championships ... They loses 3 of their top 7 to graduation (including top runner Samantha McDonnell) ... I'm just guessing, but I will not be surprised if Newbury Park improves this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
131 - Ailish Hawkins - 12 #28 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished 4th at the Texas State 6A Championships last fall, and then won the NXR South Regional and finished 20th at RunningLane Championships ... Southlake Carroll loses only one runner to graduation from those races ... Some inconsistent seasonal speed ratings make projection a "guess", and Southlake Carroll could better this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
122 - Ava Bushaw - 12 #29 - Cherry Creek CO ... Cherry Creek finished 2nd (to Arapahoe) at the Colorado State 5A Championships ... and Cherry Creek then finished 5th at the RunningLane Championships ... 4 runners graduated from those races, including top runner Riley Stewart ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Addison Price - 12 #30 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 14th at NXN Nationals in 2019, 17th in 2018, 11th in 2017 and 12th in 2016 ... Edina MN won the Minnesota State 3A Championship last year ... They then won NXR Heartland ... 5 of 7 runners return, but 2 of the top 3 graduated ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
122 - Ella Hinkie - 11 #31 - Campolindo (NC) CA ... Campolindo (NC) CA finished 7th in California State Meet Merge last year ... The team did not compete post-season ... The top 6 runners return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Ellie Buckley - 12 #32 - Springville UT ... Springville UT won the Utah State 5A Championship last year ... They then finished 4th at NXR Southwest ... The top 6 runners from both races return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 123 - Emily Sumsion - 11 |
Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2022 |
Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered. Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2021 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded). I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams that might need to be followed.
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California Buchanan (CS) CA 25 California Great Oak (SS) CA 100 California Granite Bay (SJ) CA 110 California Campolindo (NC) CA 115 California Oak Ridge (SJ) CA 115 California Newbury Park (SS) CA 120 California JSerra Catholic (SS) CA 130 California Dana Hills (SS) CA 140 California Heartland Wayzata MN 55 Heartland Minnetonka MN 65 Heartland Olathe West KS 70 Heartland Edina MN 100 Heartland Saint Paul Highland Park MN 110 Heartland Prior Lake MN 115 Heartland Dubuque Hempstead IA 120 Heartland Lincoln East NE 140 Heartland Midwest York IL 35 Midwest Columbus North IN 85 Midwest Prospect IL 95 Midwest Naperville Central IL 120 Midwest Naperville North IL 135 Midwest Loyola Academy IL 130 Midwest Minster OH 130 Midwest Carmel IN 140 Midwest Perrysburg OH 140 Midwest New York (see NY Girls Projection Page) Saratoga NY 45 New York Fayettevillle-Manlius NY 90 New York Cicero-North Syracuse NY 135 New York Bethlehem NY 175 New York Shenendehowa NY 225 New York Shaker NY 255 New York Northport NY 370 New York Orchard Park NY 375 New York East Aurora NY 385 New York *** (NY scores based on a 33 team simulation) Northeast North Allegheny PA 55 Northeast Holliston MA 70 Northeast Haddonfield Memorial HS NJ 85 Northeast Cherokee HS NJ 95 Northeast Glastonbury CT 105 Northeast North Hunterdon HS NJ 110 Northeast State College Area PA 120 Northeast Northwest Jesuit Oregon OR 45 Northwest Boise Senior ID 65 Northwest Summit OR 65 Northwest Eastlake WA 95 Northwest Tahoma Senior WA 100 Northwest Rocky Mountain ID 120 Northwest South Lucas Lovejoy TX 65 South Flower Mound TX 65 South Southlake Carroll TX 75 South Colleyville Heritage TX 95 South The Woodlands TX 105 South Klein TX 110 South Bentonville AR 130 South Southeast Cuthbertson NC 75 Southeast Brentwood TN 120 Southeast Cardinal Gibbons NC 120 Southeast Mountain Brook HS AL 125 Southeast Morgantown WV 150 Southeast Assumption KY 155 Southeast St. Pius X GA 155 Southeast Weddington NC 155 Southeast Bolles HS FL 165 Southeast McLean VA 170 Southeast West Springfield VA 195 Southeast Southwest Arapahoe CO 50 Southwest Niwot CO 50 Southwest Valor Christian CO 110 Southwest Mountain Vista CO 145 Southwest Springville UT 150 Southwest Cherry Creek CO 150 Southwest Desert Vista AZ 160 Southwest American Fork UT 185 Southwest Highland High AZ 190 Southwest Corner Canyon UT 210 Southwest Mountain Ridge UT 220 Southwest |