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National Pre-Season XC 2022 GIRLS Teams - National 2022 Bill Meylan (July 27, 2022) |
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season. Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2022 race results are what count. I did add some Regional Projections
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| National GIRLS Teams 2022 |
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2022 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 32 teams
School State Score NXN Region
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1 Saratoga Springs NY 90 New York
2 Buchanan (CS) CA 130 California
3 Niwot CO 165 Southwest
4 Arapahoe CO 170 Southwest
5 York IL 230 Midwest
6 Cuthbertson NC 340 Southeast
7 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 340 New York
8 Wayzata MN 360 Heartland
9 Jesuit Oregon OR 365 Northwest
10 Valor Christian CO 375 Southwest
11 Lucas Lovejoy TX 405 South
12 Flower Mound TX 410 South
13 Boise Senior ID 425 Northwest
14 Minnetonka MN 435 Heartland
15 Columbus North IN 440 Midwest
16 Olathe West KS 440 Heartland
17 North Allegheny PA 465 Northeast
18 Prospect IL 470 Midwest
19 Summit OR 470 Northwest
20 Cardinal Gibbons NC 480 Southeast
21 Great Oak (SS) CA 490 California
22 Mountain Brook HS AL 490 Southeast
23 Brentwood High TN 500 Southeast
24 Oak Ridge (SJ) CA 505 California
25 Mountain Vista CO 510 Southwest
26 Granite Bay (SJ) CA 515 California
27 Newbury Park (SS) CA 520 California
28 Southlake Carroll TX 520 South
29 Cherry Creek CO 530 Southwest
30 Edina MN 535 Heartland
31 Campolindo (NC) CA 535 California
32 Springville UT 535 Southwest
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Edina MN Heartland
Cicero-North Syracuse NY New York (** added due to Hannah Boyle running)
Saint Paul Highland Park MN Heartland
Holliston MA Northeast
Morgantown WV Southeast
Colleyville Heritage TX South
JSerra Catholic (SS) CA California
Bethlehem NY New York
Naperville Central IL Midwest
Prior Lake MN Heartland
Naperville North IL Midwest
Weddington NC Southeast
Carmel IN Midwest
Assumption KY Southeast
St. Pius X GA Southeast
Dubuque Hempstead IA Heartland
American Fork UT Southwest
Bolles HS FL Southeast
Dana Hills (SS) CA California
Loyola Academy IL Midwest
The Woodlands TX South
Minster OH Midwest
McLean VA Southeast
Eastlake WA Northwest
Highland High AZ Southwest
Perrysburg OH Midwest
Haddonfield Memorial HS NJ Northeast
Klein TX South
Tahoma Senior WA Northwest
Lincoln East NE Heartland
Cherokee HS NJ Northeast
Corner Canyon UT Southwest
Shenendehowa NY New York
Mountain Ridge UT Southwest
Glastonbury CT Northeast
North Hunterdon HS NJ Northeast
West Springfield VA Southeast
Bentonville AR South
Rocky Mountain ID Northwest
State College Area PA Northeast
Desert Vista AZ Southwest (** dropped, Lauren Ping not running)
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| Comments on the TOP 32 Teams: |
| #1 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga has competed at NXN Nationals in 14 of the 16 years that NXN has operated ... In 2019, Saratoga won NXN Nationals by 82 points and 4 of the 7 runners from NXN 2019 are still on the team ... Last fall, Saratoga won the NY State Class A race, the NY Federations Champ race and the NXR-New York race ... The Saratoga girls team did not run any post-season XC races last year ... But their speed ratings indicated Saratoga was possibly the top team in the nation ... Saratoga is expected to be at least 7 runners deep at a high level. ... Additional NY data are available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
147 - Emily Bush - 11 #2 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan finished 5th at NXN in 2019 ... Last year, Buchanan was the top team in California State Meet Merge ... and Buchanan race very well at the RunningLane Champion to finish 2nd to Niwot ... The top six runners from RunningLane return which makes Buchanan one of the best teams nationally entering the XC season ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 145 - Sydney Sundgren - 12 #3 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last year, Niwot won the Colorado State 4A Championship and won the RunningLane Championship ... Niwot did not have an opportunity to race Saratoga head-to-head in a National race last year, but their speed ratings suggest it could have been a competitive battle. Niwot lost three seniors to graduation including top runner Eva Klingbeil, but they are a deep and talented team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Mia Prok - 11 #4 - Arapahoe CO ... Arapahoe won at the Colorado State 5A Championship last year (beating Cherry Creek) and Arapahoe finished a very good 3rd at RunningLane Championships ... they return their top 6 runners from those races which makes them a strong national contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 145 - Emily Lamontagne - 12 #5 - York IL ... York won the Illinois State 3A title and the NXR Midwest Regional last year ... and York finished a very good 4th at the RunningLane Championshps ... York returns 5 of their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 134 - Katherine Klimek - 11 #6 - Cuthbertson NC ... Cuthbertson won the North Carolina State 4A Championship last fall, and then finished 14th at the RunningLane Championships ... Cuthbertson returns their top 6 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Alyssa Preisano - 12 #7 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius has been the NXN champion in 11 of the last 14 NXN National races ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd to Saratoga at both the NY State Class A race and NY Federation Championship race ... The top duo of Hannah Kaercher and Izzie Sullivan may be the top team duo in the US ... FM has the ability to reload, so they get credit for that and their success at NXN ... Additional data on FM is available at the NY Pre-Season Team Rankings ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 150 - Izzie Sullivan - 10 #8 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2018, 7th 2017 won NXN Nationals in 2013 ... Last year, Wayzata lost top runner (Abbey Nechanicky) to an injury early in the season ... but Wayzata still finished 2nd at Minnesota States 3A (to Edina) and 5th at NXR Heartland ... They return their entire team from those races and add Abbey Nechanicky ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 148 - Abbey Nechanicky - 12 #9 - Jesuit Oregon OR ... Jesuit Oregon finished 11th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Last year, Jesuit Oregon finished 2nd (to Summit) at the Oregon State 6A race (by only 3 points) ... They then won the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase before finishing 6th at RunningLane Championships ... Jesuit Oregon lost their top runner to graduation (Chloe Foerster), but returns the rest of their team ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Emma Bennett - 10 #10 - Valor Christian CO ... Valor Christian finished 8th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Valor Christian finished 3rd at the Colorado State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd at NXR Southwest and 16th at RunningLane Championships ... They return their entire team from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 146 - Brooke Wilson - 12 #11 - Lucas Lovejoy TX ... Lucas Lovejoy was the Texas State 5A Champions last fall, and then finished 19th at RunningLane Championships ... Lucas Lovejoy returns 5 of their top 6 finishers from States including their top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 134 - Amy Morefield - 12 #12 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound was the Texas State 6A Champion last fall, and then finished 7th at RunningLane Championships (without scoring runner Nicole Humphries) ... Flower Mound returns 4 of their top 6 finishers from States, but lose top runner (Natalie Cook) to graduation ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 138 - Samantha Humphries - 11 #13 - Boise Senior ID ... Boise Senior won the Idaho State 5A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd (to Jesuit Oregon) at the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase without one of their top runners (Sammie Smith) ... They return 4 of 7 from States including their top 2 (I assumed some improvement at the #4 and #5 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 140 - Sammy Smith - 11 #14 - Minnetonka MN ... Minnetonka finished 7th at NXR Heartland ... 6 of 7 runners return ... Minnetonka was fairly highly ranked entering the 2021 season, but top runner (Maya Mor) was injured and unable to compete last year ... I believe she will be able to compete this coming season (based on track results), and that improves my initial outlook for Minnetonka ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 137 - Maya Mor - 12 #15 - Columbus North OH ... Columbus North won the Indiana State Championship last year, and then finished 3rd at NXR Midwest (won by York IL) and 12th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 4 of their top 6, including their top 3 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 138 - Julia Kiesler - 12 #16 - Olathe West KS ... Olathe West won the Kansas State 6A Championship last year, and then finished 4th at NXR Heartland ... They return their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
128 - Bree Newport - 11 #17 - North Allegeny PA ... North Allegeny was the Pennsylvania AAA Championship last year ... the team did not compete post-season ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
132 - Wren Kucler - 10 #18 - Prospect IL ... Prospect IL finished 2nd (to York) at the Illinois State 3A Championship last year, and then finished 2nd at NXR Midwest (won by York IL) ... They return 6 of 7 from the State Meet and all 6 from NXR Midwest ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Lily Ginsberg - 11 #19 - Summit OR ... Summit OR finished 2nd at NXN in 2019 after winning impressively in 2018 ... Summit won the Oregon State 6A Championship last year (beating Jesuit by 3 points) ... they then finished 3rd at the Pacific Northwest Regional Showcase (behind Jesuit and Boise Senior) ... They return 4 runners from the State Meet Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
133 - Ella Thorsett - 12 #20 - Cardinal Gibbons NC ... Cardinal Gibbons NC finished 3rd (to Cuthbertson & Weddington) at the North Carolina State 4A Championship last year, and then won the NXR Southeast Regional ... They return all 5 scorers from the State Meet and top 4 from NXR Southeast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
140 - Hannah Rae Shaffer - 10 #21 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 9th at NXN in 2019, 8th in 2018, 8th in 2017, 3rd in 2016, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 (But Coach Doug Soles is now in Herriman UT) ... Great Oak finished 10th in the California State Meet Merge last year (behind winner Buchanan) ... Great Oak finished 25th at RunningLane Championships ... They returns 6 of 7 from both meets including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 133 - Kelli Gaffney - 12 #22 - Mountain Brook AL ... Mountain Brook AL won the Alabama State 7A Championship last year, but the team did not compete in post-season (although top runner, Reagan Riley, did finish 21st at RunningLane Champs) ... They return 6 of their top 7 from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
142 - Reagan Riley - 12 #23 - Brentwood High TN ... Brentwood High TN won the Tennessee State 3A Championship last year, and then finished 28th at RunningLane Championships ... They return all 5 scorers from both meets ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 124 - Lydia Cromwell - 10 #24 - Oak Ridge (SJ) CA ... Oak Ridge (SJ) CA finished 4th in California State Meet Merge last year, and then finished 8th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 5 of 7 from both meets, but lose 2 of their top 4 scorers to graduation ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 130 - Quinn Walker - 12 #25 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 4th at the Colorado State 5A Championship (behind Arapahoe, Cherry Creek and Valor Christian), and then finished 7th at NXR-Southwest and 24th at RunningLane Championships ... They return 6 of the top 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Peyton Adams - 10 #26 - Granite Bay (SJ) CA ... Granite Bay (SJ) CA finished 8th in California State Meet Merge last year ... The team did not compete post-season ... They return all scorers from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Carly Foster - 12 #27 - Newbury Park (SS) CA
... Newbury Park (SS) CA finished 2nd in California State Meet
Merge last year (behind Buchanan) ... Newbury Park
finished 9th at RunningLane Championships ... They loses 3 of their top
7 to graduation (including top runner Samantha McDonnell) ... I'm just
guessing, but I will not be surprised if Newbury Park
improves this ranking
131 - Ailish Hawkins - 12 #28 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished 4th at the Texas State 6A Championships last fall, and then won the NXR South Regional and finished 20th at RunningLane Championships ... Southlake Carroll loses only one runner to graduation from those races ... Some inconsistent seasonal speed ratings make projection a "guess", and Southlake Carroll could better this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
122 - Ava Bushaw - 12 #29 - Cherry Creek CO ... Cherry Creek finished 2nd (to Arapahoe) at the Colorado State 5A Championships ... and Cherry Creek then finished 5th at the RunningLane Championships ... 4 runners graduated from those races, including top runner Riley Stewart ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 127 - Addison Price - 12 #30 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 14th at NXN Nationals in 2019, 17th in 2018, 11th in 2017 and 12th in 2016 ... Edina MN won the Minnesota State 3A Championship last year ... They then won NXR Heartland ... 5 of 7 runners return, but 2 of the top 3 graduated ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
122 - Ella Hinkie - 11 #31 - Campolindo (NC) CA ... Campolindo (NC) CA finished 7th in California State Meet Merge last year ... The team did not compete post-season ... The top 6 runners return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 132 - Ellie Buckley - 12 #32 - Springville UT ... Springville UT won the Utah State 5A Championship last year ... They then finished 4th at NXR Southwest ... The top 6 runners from both races return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings: 123 - Emily Sumsion - 11 |
| Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2022 |
Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered. Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2021 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded). I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams that might need to be followed.
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California
Buchanan (CS) CA 25 California
Great Oak (SS) CA 100 California
Granite Bay (SJ) CA 110 California
Campolindo (NC) CA 115 California
Oak Ridge (SJ) CA 115 California
Newbury Park (SS) CA 120 California
JSerra Catholic (SS) CA 130 California
Dana Hills (SS) CA 140 California
Heartland
Wayzata MN 55 Heartland
Minnetonka MN 65 Heartland
Olathe West KS 70 Heartland
Edina MN 100 Heartland
Saint Paul Highland Park MN 110 Heartland
Prior Lake MN 115 Heartland
Dubuque Hempstead IA 120 Heartland
Lincoln East NE 140 Heartland
Midwest
York IL 35 Midwest
Columbus North IN 85 Midwest
Prospect IL 95 Midwest
Naperville Central IL 120 Midwest
Naperville North IL 135 Midwest
Loyola Academy IL 130 Midwest
Minster OH 130 Midwest
Carmel IN 140 Midwest
Perrysburg OH 140 Midwest
New York (see NY Girls Projection Page)
Saratoga NY 45 New York
Fayettevillle-Manlius NY 90 New York
Cicero-North Syracuse NY 135 New York
Bethlehem NY 175 New York
Shenendehowa NY 225 New York
Shaker NY 255 New York
Northport NY 370 New York
Orchard Park NY 375 New York
East Aurora NY 385 New York
*** (NY scores based on a 33 team simulation)
Northeast
North Allegheny PA 55 Northeast
Holliston MA 70 Northeast
Haddonfield Memorial HS NJ 85 Northeast
Cherokee HS NJ 95 Northeast
Glastonbury CT 105 Northeast
North Hunterdon HS NJ 110 Northeast
State College Area PA 120 Northeast
Northwest
Jesuit Oregon OR 45 Northwest
Boise Senior ID 65 Northwest
Summit OR 65 Northwest
Eastlake WA 95 Northwest
Tahoma Senior WA 100 Northwest
Rocky Mountain ID 120 Northwest
South
Lucas Lovejoy TX 65 South
Flower Mound TX 65 South
Southlake Carroll TX 75 South
Colleyville Heritage TX 95 South
The Woodlands TX 105 South
Klein TX 110 South
Bentonville AR 130 South
Southeast
Cuthbertson NC 75 Southeast
Brentwood TN 120 Southeast
Cardinal Gibbons NC 120 Southeast
Mountain Brook HS AL 125 Southeast
Morgantown WV 150 Southeast
Assumption KY 155 Southeast
St. Pius X GA 155 Southeast
Weddington NC 155 Southeast
Bolles HS FL 165 Southeast
McLean VA 170 Southeast
West Springfield VA 195 Southeast
Southwest
Arapahoe CO 50 Southwest
Niwot CO 50 Southwest
Valor Christian CO 110 Southwest
Mountain Vista CO 145 Southwest
Springville UT 150 Southwest
Cherry Creek CO 150 Southwest
Desert Vista AZ 160 Southwest
American Fork UT 185 Southwest
Highland High AZ 190 Southwest
Corner Canyon UT 210 Southwest
Mountain Ridge UT 220 Southwest
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