RunningLane Championship Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2021

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners.

The team scores below are a quick projection using the "Overall Speed Rating" of each individual team runner as listed in the entries ... Any change in the entries could affect the projections ... The "Overall Speed Rating" is a weighted number based on the highest seasonal rating, average rating (exclusions applied), median rating, and various combinations of the most recent ratings for each runner.

Overall Speed Ratings of each Team Runner & their Projected Team Place web-page.

Initial projections posted on December 1, 2021  ...  

 

BOYS - Team Projected "Morning-Line Scores					Boys Actual Results & Scores
1	Newbury Park (SS)	CA	26		1	Newbury Park (SS)	29
2	Cheyenne Mountain	CO	134		2	Cheyenne Mountain	121
3	Farmington	UT	215		3	Jesuit Oregon	187
4	Jesuit Oregon	OR	220		4	Union Catholic Reg	281
5	Grapevine	TX	278		5	Grapevine	284
6	Central Catholic	OR	310		6	Farmington	300
7	Union Catholic Reg	NJ	329		7	Great Oak (SS)	318
8	American Fork	UT	351		8	Niwot	334
9	Brebeuf Jesuit Prep	IN	361		9	Valor Christian	358
10	Severna Park	MD	389		10	American Fork	375
11	Southlake Carroll	TX	394		11	Mountain Vista	376
12	Great Oak (SS)	CA	401		12	Mountain View	386
13	Niwot	CO	409		13	Loyola (SS)	400
14	Valor Christian	CO	417		14	Brebeuf Jesuit Prep	401
15	Columbus North	IN	424		15	Corner Canyon	420
16	Loyola (SS)	CA	430		16	Jesuit New Orleans	431
17	Mount Tabor	NC	445		17	Riverton	438
18	The Woodlands	TX	451		18	Severna Park	449
19	Jesuit New Orleans	LA	460		19	Rock Bridge	449
20	Lincoln HS	OR	466		20	Lincoln HS	469
21	Sioux City North	IA	481		21	Southlake Carroll	485
22	Mountain View	UT	485		22	Rocky Mountain	490
23	Riverton	UT	505		23	Hamilton Southeastern	538
24	Rocky Mountain	ID	511		24	Central Catholic	548
25	Mountain Vista	CO	516		25	Millard West	549
26	Corner Canyon	UT	518		26	La Salle College	562
27	Wayzata	MN	551		27	Columbus North	569
28	Millard West	NE	558		28	Weddington	570
29	LaSalle College	PA	562		29	The Woodlands	618
30	Hamilton Southeastern	IN	562		30	Sioux City North	634
					31	Wayzata	642

Overall Speed Ratings of each Team Runner & their Projected Team Place web-page.

Pre-Race Comment 

Newbury Park has an incredibly low projected score of 26 ... The projected team places of their 5 scorers is 1, 2, 3, 4 and 16 ... I will not be surprised if their actual score is higher than 26 ... Several team runners from other teams (such as Zane Bergen of Niwot) could break up the top four elevating the Newbury Park team score ... Also, there are many good team runners in the the Gold Race, and additional displacement is possible (especially at the #5 position).

Individual Race Comments:

The table below lists the top runners' best speed rating of the season ... This is an excellent field of runners.

The outstanding trio of Newbury Park guys at the top are expected to be challenged by runners such as William Zegarski, Riley Hough, Jackson Barna, Zane Bergen and others.

I'm looking forward to the tactics of the race ... For some reason, I'm expecting the Newbury Park guys to go to the lead and set the pace with a group of guys following closely ... Last time I thought something like this was at the 2019 NXN Nationals, when I expected the same via Nico Young with a group behind him ... But nobody even tried to stay close to Nico (he was the best, but nobody even tried).

Record Alert ... I'm already getting emails asking if Meylan will downplay the Newbury Park guy(s) if they run faster than Dathan Ritzenhein's 5K high school XC record of 14:10.4 (which I speed-rated at 210.53) ... I think it is possible that the 14:10.4 mark could be broken.

The RunningLane 5K course is fast (everybody knows it) ... Its inherent speed (typical speed on a fast-average day) is similar to the Liberty Bell course in Colorado and similar to some previous Desert Twilight Invite races at night ... The RunningLane course (if similar to last year) runs roughly 15-20 seconds faster than Woodward Park ... and that puts Ritzenhein's record at risk ... The Michigan State Meet course where Ritz set the mark in 2000 is typically about 10-12 seconds slower (on fast days) than Woodward Park ... Just a heads-up.

This is an outstanding & interesting race.

 
Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
                                                           
                                                           Best 
 Name                  Grade  School                   Speed Rating    
 --------------------  -----  -------------------      ------------   
 Colin Sahlman           12   Newbury Park (SS)        202.17   202
 Leo Young               11   Newbury Park (SS)        201.67   202
 Lex Young               11   Newbury Park (SS)        200.90   201
 William Zegarski        12   Little Miami             197.70   198
 Riley Hough             12   Hartland                 197.63   198
 Jackson Barna           12   Ridge HS                 196.67   197
 Zane Bergen             12   Niwot                    196.10   196
 Aaron Sahlman           11   Newbury Park (SS)        195.90   196
 Isaac Teeples           12   Kamiakin                 194.73   195
 Aidan Cox               11   Coe Brown Academy        194.47   194
 Jamar Distel            12   Riverside                193.87   194 (reported injured)
 Shane Brosnan           12   Union Catholic Reg. HS   193.70   194
 Rendon Kuykendall       11   Hope Christian           192.70   193
 Gary Martin             12   Archbishop Wood          192.67   193
 Reese Kilbarger-Stumpf  12   Columbus North           192.47   192
 Aidan Ross              11   Uxbridge                 192.30   192
 Alex Mader              12   Lick Wilmerding (NC)     192.23   192
 Andrew Hauser           10   Rock Bridge              192.23   192
 Tayson Echohawk         11   Orem                     192.10   192
 Erik Le Roux            12   Cheyenne Mountain        191.67   192
 James Crabtree          12   Sherwood                 191.50   192
 Kole Mathison           11   Carmel                   191.43   191
 Krishna Thirunavukkaras 12   Brebeuf Jesuit Prep Sch  191.23   191
 Sam Rich                12   Catawba Ridge HS         191.10   191 (reported injured)
 Michael Toppi           12   Viera HS                 191.05   191
 Emmanuel Sgouros        12   St. John's Houston       190.59   191
 Kaden Levings           11   Cheyenne Mountain        190.50   191
 Matthew Edwards         10   The Classical Academy    190.50   191
 Wesley Shipsey          11   Central Catholic         190.30   190
 Cole Raymond            12   LaPorte                  190.17   190
 Luke Ondracek           12   Walsh Jesuit             190.10   190
 Danny Simmons           10   Salmon                   189.97   190
 Keegan Smith            9    Knoxville Catholic       189.74   190
 Jacob Nenow             11   Jesuit                   189.73   190
 Walker St. John         12   Grapevine                188.80   189
 Graham Mussmon          12   Loudoun Valley           188.80   189
 Nathan Solomon          12   Shiloh                   188.70   189
 Knox Exton              12   Cheyenne Mountain        188.60   189

Overall Speed Ratings of each Team Runner & their Projected Team Place web-page.

Pre-Race Comment

I think any of the top 6 projected teams above could win this race.

Niwot is the favorite based on speed ratings ... The Niwot entries list Scarlett Parks (a 7th-grader) as runner, and I have no data on her at all ... Niwot does have another runner on their roster (Sierra Parks, a 126 overall rating), so I used her instead ... One of Niwot's advantages over most teams is their team depth.

I would have considered Flower Mound a possible winner, but one of their top runners (Nicole Humphries) is not listed to run ... With her they would have been projected at either #3 or #4.

Buchanan beat Newbury Park by 51-72 at the California State D1 Race ... One of Buchanan's top runner (Grace Hutchinson) went down in the race (finished last), but Buchanan still won ... I don't know this runner's status for RunningLane, but I assumed she will run well.

Individual Race Comment:

The list below shows the runners in the the Gold Race with the Top Speed Ratings of the season thus far ... 8 runners have speed ratings of 150 or higher ... Natalie Cook & Riley Stewart won the Eastbay South & Midwest Regional races last Saturday respectively ... Dalia Frias won the California State D1 race.

This is a high quality race ... It will be interesting to see the tactics of the top runners ... Natalie Cook is the favorite based on speed ratings, but I think she may be challenged.

 
Top Runners for the win :  
                                                             
                                                              Best 
 Name                 Grade  School                        Speed Rating
 -------------------  -----  ----------------------        ------------
 Natalie Cook           12   Flower Mound                  160.70   161
 Riley Stewart          12   Cherry Creek                  155.87   156
 Dalia Frias            12   Mira Costa (SS)               155.50   156
 Samantha Mcdonnell     12   Newbury Park (SS)             151.80   152
 Lily Cridge            11   Bishop Chatard                151.47   151
 Lilly Shapiro          12   Colts Neck HS                 150.33   150
 Jenna Mulhern          12   West Chester Henderson        150.00   150
 Chloe Foerster         12   Jesuit                        149.50   150
 Sydney Sundgren        11   Buchanan (CS)                 148.90   149
 Anjali Hocker Singh    10   Olathe North                  147.17   147
 Ava Parekh             12   Chicago Latin                 146.80   147
 Bethany Michalak       10   Air Academy                   146.73   147
 Brooke Wilson          11   Valor Christian               146.03   146
 Cameron McConnell      12   Canyon Randall                145.87   146
 Ava Gordon             12   Loudoun Valley                145.41   145
 Mia Prok               10   Niwot                         144.33   144
 Caroline Lehman        12   Cambridge (Christian) School  144.10   144
 Allie Love             10   Colleyville Heritage          143.87   144
 Eva Klingbeil          12   Niwot                         142.37   142
 Hannah Rae Shaffer     9    Cardinal Gibbons              142.15   142
 Emily Lamontagne       11   Arapahoe                      141.93   142
 Gretchen Farley        11   Park Tudor                    141.73   142
 Samantha Blair         12   Eagle Valley                  141.70   142
 Madison Shults         11   Niwot                         141.17   141
 Caroline Bauer         12   Jamestown                     140.83   141
 Ava Mitchell           11   Arapahoe                      140.73   141
 Grace Hartman          12   Oakwood                       140.47   140
 Keeghan Edwards        9    Valor Christian               140.23   140
 Mary Grace Hegberg     12   St. Viator                    140.03   140