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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2021 - Projections & Preview 2021

 

Please remember: the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Projected Scores were posted on November 10, 2021 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... Actual Scores Added Nov 13

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

Actual Scores Added Nov 13

[ Girls projections ]

 

 Boys Class A  -  Corning the favorite with Fayetteville-Manlius 2nd 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Corning              (04)      58        Corning                30
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      79        Fayetteville-Manlius   79
  3   Shenendehowa         (02)      90        Shenendehowa           83
  4   Webster Thomas       (05)     130        Northport             133
  5   Mamaroneck           (01)     139        Webster Thomas        141
  6   Calhoun              (08)     142        Clarence              149
  7   Northport            (11)     149        Monroe-Woodbury       157
  8   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     150        Mamaroneck            179
  9   Clarence             (06)     178        Calhoun               194

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is a nice quality team race ... Corning has been highly ranked all season and performed very nicely on the State Meet course last week at the Section 4 Championships ... This makes them a solid favorite for the win.

Fayetteville-Manlius is improving and performing better than expected (based on pre-season evaluation) ... and in a nine team race, Fayetteville-Manlius could surprise.  At a peak performance, Shenendehowa is very close to 2nd.

Fourth through 8th-place looks like a toss-up.

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race ... As can be seen from the speed ratings below, a bunch of guys are in contention for the top spots ... The highest individual speed ratings of top 10 guys are in 180s ... Peter McMahon (West Genesee) and Ryan Bush (Saratoga) are the top-rated Class A runners with highest speed ratings of 189 ... other talented runners could make this an interesting race for the win.

 
 
Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating
1   Peter McMahon         11   03-A    West Genesee         189.13   189      186
2   Ryan Bush             12   02-A    Saratoga             189.03   189      186
3   Jack Gregorski        12   04-A    Corning              186.60   187      185
4   Julian Franjieh       12   02-A    Niskayuna            185.33   185      184
5   Nathan Brimhall       12   02-A    Shenendehowa         184.21   184      181
6   John Farrell          12   05-A    Fairport             181.43   181      180
7   Ashton Bange          11   04-A    Corning              181.33   181      180
8   Ryan Hagan            12   03-A    Liverpool            181.20   181      179
9   Aidan Neilson         12   11-A    Deer Park            180.43   180      178
10  Colin Funk            12   08-A    Port Washington      179.71   180      175
11  Anthony Otis          11   03-A    FM                   179.37   179      176
12  Adam Barbato          12   05-A    Victor               179.10   179      178
13  Jason Markopoulos     12   01-A    Mamaroneck           178.93   179      177
14  Andrew Rosenblatt     12   11-A    Commack              177.97   178      174
15  Amokrane Aouchiche    12   08-A    Mepham               177.60   178      177
16  Jeremy Jean-Charles   12   09-A    Cornwall             176.83   177      174
17  Anson Butler          12   05-A    Brighton             176.40   176      173
18  Nathan Davis          12   02-A    Columbia             176.11   176      174
19  Matthew Doherty       11   01-A    Mamaroneck           176.00   176      172
20  Collin Catherwood     11   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury      176.00   176      173
21  Jordan Altman         11   08-A    Syosset              175.04   175      170
22  Michael Clay          12   02-A    Shenendehowa         174.22   174      172
23  Zack Winnicki         12   06-A    Lancaster            174.18   174      171
24  Logan Schaeffler      10   08-A    Calhoun              173.69   174      169
25  Wyeth Semo            12   11-A    Northport            173.67   174      173

 

 Boys Class B  -  Burnt Hills the favorite again 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      37        Burnt Hills            35
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      67        Westhampton Beach      71
  3   Westhampton Beach    (11)      70        Pittsford Mendon       90
  4   East Aurora          (06)     101        East Aurora           102
  5   Mount Academy        (09)     152        Vestal                125
  6   Vestal               (04)     176        Mount Academy         143
  7   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     181        Pearl River           184
  8   Pearl River          (01)     194        Jamesville Dewitt     186
  9   Manhasset            (08)     202        Manhasset             245
  10  Plattsburgh          (07)     313        Franklin Academy      316
  11  Franklin Academy     (10)     322        Plattsburgh           317

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills has won multiple Class B titles (including 2019), and is the solid favorite to win again ... Looks like a toss-up between Westhampton Beach and Pittsford Mendon for 2nd-place.

Individual Race ... Gitch Hayes (LaSalle) is the top-rated runner In NY State (all classes & federations) which makes him the favorite for the win ... Fives other guys have achieved speed ratings of 181 or higher, and a group of other runners are close ... So this looks like a really good race for a mythical "podium position".

 

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating 
1   Gitch Hayes           12   02-B    LaSalle              192.95   193      188
2   Gavin Ehlers          12   11-B    Westhampton          185.90   186      184
3   Jayson Chichelli      12   05-B    McQuaid              182.63   183      180
4   Maximus Haynia        11   11-B    Westhampton          181.57   182      180
5   Evan Waterton         12   09-B    Monticello           181.53   182      175
6   Ike Blough            12   09-B    Mount Academy        180.93   181      179
7   Jack Hicks            12   02-B    Queensbury           178.52   179      177
8   Peter Fulgieri        12   02-B    Burnt Hills          178.40   178      176
9   Tyler Greene          12   02-B    Scotia-Glenville     178.01   178      177
10  Matthew Rounds        11   02-B    Burnt Hills          177.03   177      173
11  John Fontanez         12   01-B    Nanuet               175.70   176      171
12  Trevor Hayes          10   11-B    Westhampton          175.53   176      175
13  Brody Jones           12   06-B    Pioneer              174.54   175      171
14  Nico Valentine        12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon     174.43   174      171
15  Michael McMahon       12   03-B    CBA                  173.67   174      172
16  Nick Grock            12   02-B    Burnt Hills          172.46   172      170
17  Ryan Allison          12   02-B    Burnt Hills          171.46   171      170
18  Collin Brown          11   05-B    McQuaid              171.37   171      171
19  Matt Ferreri          11   01-B    Lourdes              171.13   171      166
20  Patrick Ford          11   01-B    Brewster             170.57   171      170

 

 Boys Class C  -  Irvington the favorite, but some uncertainty overall 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Irvington            (01)      67        Irvington              50
  2   Southwestern         (06)      87        Southwestern           80
  3   Vernon-Verona-Sherril(03)     102        Fonda-Fultonville      86
  4   Fonda-Fultonville    (02)     105        Vernon-Verona-Sherril 118
  5   James O'Neill        (09)     158        James O'Neill         147
  6   Saranac Lake         (07)     162        Lansing               154
  7   Lansing              (04)     175        Saranac Lake          168
  8   Wheatley             (08)     185        Wheatley              193
  9   Center Moriches      (11)     192        Norwood-Norfolk       216
  10  Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     210        Center Moriches       222
  11  LeRoy                (05)     242        LeRoy                 264

Pre-Race Analysis ... Some uncertainty in projecting this team race ... The numbers make Irvington the favorite, but Southwestern may be closer than the scores above suggest ... and on their best, VVS (Vernon-Verona-Sherrill) and Fonda-Fultonville could grab the title.

Individual Race ... Kyle Urban (Alden) is the top-rated Class C runner ... however, Jacob Brink (Allegany-Limestone) beat him at the Section 6 Championships ... Nick Lyndaker (Canton) is also a serious contender ... and other runners are not that far behind.

 

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Kyle Urban            12   06-C    Alden                181.08   181      178
2   Nick Lyndaker         12   10-C    Canton               175.40   175      167
3   Jacob Brink           12   06-C    Allegany-Limestone   173.92   174      173
4   Daniel Casey          12   06-C    Allegany-Limestone   172.51   173      167
5   James Tette           10   05-C    Penn Yan             171.13   171      168
6   Alex Searle           11   01-C    Pleasantville        170.87   171      169
7   Drew Reigelsperger    12   05-C    Bloomfield-Naples    169.00   169      166
8   Bennett Melita        11   02-C    Fonda-Fultonvill     167.68   168      166
9   Sam Ash               11   07-C    Saranac Lake         167.63   168      166
10  Nate Lewis            11   06-C    Southwestern         167.45   167      161
11  Jonny Sherwood        12   04-C    Newark Valley        167.33   167      161
12  Liam Lyons            12   01-C    Irvington            164.77   165      163
13  Marc Lucasey          12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry          164.33   164      158
14  Lucas Turano          12   01-C    Irvington            164.20   164      159
15  Noah Brightman        12   01-C    Pawling              163.80   164      160
16  Giovanni Culotta      12   01-C    Briarcliff           163.30   163      163
17  Caeden Cox            12   03-C    Marcellus            162.40   162      157

 

 Boys Class D  -  Tri-Valley & Arkport very close with Beaver River lurking 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Tri-Valley           (09)      64        Tri-Valley             41
  2   Arkport-Canaseraga   (05)      69        Arkport-Canaseraga     63
  3   Beaver River         (03)      82        Beaver River           75
  4   Port Jefferson       (11)     114        Maple Grove           128
  5   Maple Grove          (06)     116        Trumansburg           130
  6   Mayfield             (02)     123        Mayfield              136
  7   Trumansburg          (04)     150        Port Jefferson        141
  8   Lake Placid          (07)     158        Lake Placid           163
  9   Haldane              (01)     238        Haldane               226
  10  Tupper Lake          (10)     312        Tupper Lake           308

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tri-Valley is a very slight favorite over Arkport-Canaseraga ... and Beaver River (Class D Champion by 50 points in 2019) is close enough to be a contender for the title.

Individual Race ... Appears to be a good competitive match-up for the win ... Colton Kempney (Beaver River) has been improving and may be a very slight favorite (he finished 2nd at States in 2019 with a 188 speed rating) ... Adam Furman (Tri-Valley) can be considered a co-favorite, and is a definite contender for the win ... Collin Stafford (South Lewis) is within striking distance.

 

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Colton Kempney        12   03-D    Beaver River         180.97   181      179
2   Adam Furman           11   09-D    Tri-Valley           180.74   181      178
3   Collin Stafford       10   03-D    South Lewis          175.83   176      174
4   Pierce Young          11   05-D    Arkport              174.53   175      170
5   Connor Domoy          10   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama     166.67   167      165
6   Lukas Baer            12   06-D    Maple Grove          161.37   161      161
7   Andrew Scanio         11   07-D    Lake Placid          160.37   160      157
8   Luke Tighe            11   03-D    Pulaski              158.90   159      156
9   Conner Zehr           10   03-D    Beaver River         158.77   159      156
10  Sam DeJordy           10   07-D    Seton Catholic       158.58   159      157
11  Roan Kelly            10   06-D    Randolph             155.50   156      152
12  Craig Costa           10   09-D    Tri-Valley           154.43   154      153
13  Van Furman            9    09-D    Tri-Valley           154.11   154      151
14  Cameron Abdella       11   02-D    Mayfield             154.09   154      151

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  Saratoga Springs the favorite over Fayetteville-Manlius 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga Springs     (02)      30        Saratoga Springs       26
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      43        Fayetteville-Manlius   46
  3   Cornwall             (09)     125        Northport             117
  4   Churchville-Chili    (05)     131        Cornwall              130
  5   Corning              (04)     139        Corning               139
  6   Northport            (11)     140        Churchville-Chili     150
  7   Clarence             (06)     161        Clarence              159
  8   Suffern              (01)     207        Suffern               205
  9   Syosset              (08)     213        Syosset               221

Pre-Race Analysis ... Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius are once again the top teams in Class A (and in NY State overall) ... Based on recent performances, Saratoga is probably the top team in the nation ... Fayetteville-Manlius is significantly better than I expected at the beginning of season ... Saratoga's depth appears to be too strong for FM to overcome, but that's why an actual race is needed to determine the winner.

There are only nine teams in the race and that helps FM by tightening the scoring (less displacement of the FM runners at the 3, 4 and 5 positions) ... Saratoga's strength is team depth (the #6 an #7 runners at sectionals had speed ratings of 133 and 122, but that was at Saratoga's home course) ... How they will race at the relatively slow Chenango Valley State Park course remains to be seen (I expect they will run very nicely) ... A big performance by Fayetteville-Manlius and a slight off-day by Saratoga makes this race close.

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a great race in terms of quality ... 21 runners have achieved a speed rating of 130 or higher, and 8 runners have achieved a speed rating of 140 or higher.

Three of the top four runners raced head-to-head at the Section 3 Championships with Izzie Sullivan (FM) winning over Emily Toth-Ratazzi (RFA) and Hannah Kaercher (FM) ... Karrie Baloga (Cornwall) was the first NY girl this season to achieve a speed rating of 150+ (she 11th at Foot Locker 2019 with a speed rating of 151, and 3rd at Foot Locker Northeast with a 152 speed rating).

This is clearly one of the best races of the day ... and how the race unfolds (in terms of pace and strategy) could determine the winner ... And remember, if the FM girls finish 1-2, that is only 3 teams points.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Hannah Kaercher       11   03-A    FM                   152.73   153       150
2   Izzie Sullivan        9    03-A    FM                   151.00   151       149
3   Karrie Baloga         11   09-A    Cornwall             150.67   151       147
4   Emily Toth-Ratazzi    12   03-A    Rome                 149.17   149       146
5   Emily Bush            10   02-A    Saratoga             144.41   144       143
6   Mackenzie Hart        12   02-A    Saratoga             142.78   143       140
7   Kate Putman           11   03-A    CNS                  142.09   142       138
8   Ella Kurto            12   02-A    Saratoga             139.96   140       138
9   Alycia Hart           10   02-A    Saratoga             139.30   139       135
10  Zariel Macchia        9    11-A    William Floyd        139.22   139       134
11  Daphne Banino         12   01-A    Ursuline             139.07   139       135
12  Sheridan Wheeler      11   02-A    Saratoga             136.68   137       134
13  Sydney Leitner        12   01-A    Yorktown             134.70   135       132
14  Noel Barlette         10   06-A    Orchard Park         134.56   135       128
15  Lillie Bogdan         9    06-A    Frontier             133.09   133       132
16  Anya Belisle          10   02-A    Saratoga             132.59   133       130
17  Allison Reid          12   11-A    Northport            132.20   132       119
18  Candace Tytler        12   05-A    Irondequoit          131.90   132       130
19  Sarah Lawson          10   04-A    Corning              131.63   132       131
20  Ana Markovina         12   08-A    Jericho              130.00   130       128
21  Kyleen Brady          8    03-A    Auburn               129.73   130       128

 

 Girls Class B  -  Pearl River the favorite with East Aurora challenging 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pearl River          (01)      64        East Aurora            55
  2   East Aurora          (06)      70        Honeoye Falls-Lima     67
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)      88        Pearl River            85
  4   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      91        Burnt Hills           108
  5   South Side           (08)     113        South Side            127
  6   Goshen               (09)     139        Goshen                163
  7   Sayville             (11)     174        Sayville              164
  8   Union Endicott       (04)     207        New Hartford          191
  9   New Hartford         (03)     217        Union Endicott        226
  10  Plattsburgh          (07)     295        Plattsburgh           285
  11  Franklin Academy     (10)     333        Franklin Academy      339

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pearl River is a multi-time State Title winner and is a slight favorite over East Aurora.

Individual Race ... Emilia O'Leary (East Aurora) is the top-rated Class B runner and is the favorite ... Elizabeth Lucason (Camden) has won State titles in the past and is a threat ... Sierra Gray (Miller Place) has shown enough speed to be a contender as well.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Emilia O'Leary        9    06-B    East Aurora          140.99   141       136
2   Sierra Gray           12   11-B    Miller Place         134.42   134       117
3   Elizabeth Lucason     12   03-B    Camden               132.60   133       131
4   Una Boylan            12   01-B    Pearl River          126.60   127       126
5   Kayla Schramm         12   09-B    Goshen               125.97   126       121
6   Rachel Miller         9    02-B    Mohonasen            125.83   126       122
7   Shannon Zugelder      8    06-B    Starpoint            124.67   125       121
8   Juliette Salazar      11   01-B    Peekskill            122.27   122       113 (not racing)
9   Danielle Cirrito      12   11-B    Miller Place         120.87   121       119
10  Trinity Wells         12   05-B    Newark               120.53   121       113
11  Mia Paolino           10   02-B    Burnt Hills          119.97   120       118
12  McKinley Fielding     12   03-B    Carthage             119.93   120       119

 

 Girls Class C  - Bronxville returns as a Class C favorite 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)      81        Bronxville             57
  2   South Jefferson      (03)      99        Norwood-Norfolk        90
  3   Voorheesville        (02)     106        Newfane               106
  4   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     113        Voorheesville         111
  5   Newfane              (06)     119        South Jefferson       116
  6   Wheatley             (08)     119        Wheatley              164
  7   James O'Neill        (09)     153        James O'Neill         171
  8   Saranac              (07)     162        Saranac               175
  9   Chenango Forks       (04)     226        Chenango Forks        196
  10  Waterloo             (05)     243        Waterloo              266
  11  Center Moriches      (11)     263        Center Moriches       269

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is a multi-time NY State Champion, has been improving, and is the favorite to win ... But the five teams behind them in the projected scores above are not really that far behind ... Big performances from runners on these teams (especially from the #4 and #5 runners) could make this race interesting.

Individual Race ... Alexa Doe (South Jefferson) has been the top Class C runner all year and is the favorite ... Angelina Napoleon (Allegany-Limestone) has shown improvement in recent races and is a serious challenger.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Alexa Doe             12   03-C    South Jefferson      137.73   138       136
2   Angelina Napoleon     11   06-C    Allegany-Limestone   134.33   134       132
3   Julia Schriefer       12   08-C    Wheatley             129.49   129       125
4   Pipher Reid           12   04-C    Chenango Forks       127.00   127       124
5   Kirsten Melnik        9    06-C    Springville          125.77   126       122
6   Hannah Goetz          12   06-C    Springville          124.45   124       123
7   Madelyn Dinneen       12   10-C    Norwood-Norfolk      123.68   124       123
8   Mariem Sayahi         11   02-C    Voorheesville        123.57   124       119
9   Maddy Williams        9    01-C    Bronxville           123.01   123       118
10  Ava Black             11   01-C    Bronxville           122.83   123       119
11  Karsyn Burnash        12   03-C    South Jefferson      121.50   122       116
12  Kylie Bowman          10   06-C    Newfane              121.49   121       117
13  Erin Boler            11   02-C    Albany Academy       120.80   121       114

 

 Girls Class D  -  South Lewis the favorite, but could get challenged 
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   South Lewis          (03)      58        South Lewis            44
  2   Lake Placid          (07)      74        Addison                72
  3   Berlin               (02)      80        Delhi                  79
  4   Maple Grove          (06)      83        Lake Placid            91
  5   Delhi                (04)      89        Maple Grove            93
  6   Addison              (05)      93        Berlin                 98
  7   Pierson              (11)     217        Pierson               202
  8   Millbrook            (09)     233        Millbrook             212
  9   Haldane              (01)     258

Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis is the favorite because they have 2 of the top 3 runners in Class D (and 3 in the top 10) ... if the #4 and #5 runners run well, South Lewis should win ... However, the difference between the top 6 teams above is not really that much, and scoring runners having an "off" day could result in switched-places.

Like some races, displacement by runners from other teams could be the deciding factor in team placement.

Individual Race ... Lexi Bernard (South Lewis) is the favorite ... Lake Placid 8th-grader Samantha Damico has been improving and could surprise ... At her best, Brynn Bernard could definitely win.

 

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Lexi Bernard          12   03-D    South Lewis          126.67   127       124
2   Samantha Damico       8    07-D    Lake Placid          121.57   122       120
3   Brynn Bernard         10   03-D    South Lewis          120.47   120       118
4   Tea Malone-Bonacci    11   05-D    Harley-Allendale     114.44   114       113
5   Paris Welker          12   03-D    Oriskany             108.47   108       103
6   Madalenn Fee          12   05-D    Red Jacket           107.80   108       103
7   Gianna Welker         12   03-D    Oriskany             107.17   107       95
8   Katie Edinger         11   03-D    Tully                107.10   107       103
9   Faith Skowvron        11   05-D    Addison              105.87   106       101
10  Mallory Kraeger       10   03-D    South Lewis          105.57   106       104
11  Kylie Paylor          11   05-D    Clyde-Savannah       104.73   105       103
12  Alexa Wolcott         12   05-D    Pavilion/York        103.44   103       103
13  Sophia Squires        10   02-D    Hoosic Valley        101.52   102       99
14  Allura Meizinger      10   02-D    Berlin               100.27   100       98