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November 7, 2019 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2019 Section 3 Championships

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 7, 2019 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 9, 2019

 ...  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 9, 2019

 Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on Favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   31           Fayetteville-Manlius    30
  2   Cicero-North Syracuse  91           Liverpool               58
  3   Liverpool              97           Baldwinsville          107
  4   Rome Free             106           Rome Free Academy      118
  5   Baldwinsville         117           Cicero-North Syracuse  132
  6   West Genesee          164           West Genesee           167
  7   Oswego                228           Auburn                 224
  8   Auburn                232           Syracuse West          228
  9   Central Square        262           Oswego                 252
  10  Syracuse West         262           Proctor                272
  11  Proctor               264           Central Square         280
  12  Nottingham            310           Nottingham             315
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius won the SCAC League Championship by 62 points scoring just 25 points ... Cicero-North Syracuse beat Liverpool by only 1 point at SCAC, and Rome Free Academy and Baldwinsville are within striking distance of the runner-up spot.

Individual Race ... The top guys are listed below ... I expect somebody from FM will win ... The top five finishers not on the winning team qualify as individuals to the State Meet (for all classes).

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Peyton Geehrer        11   03-A    FM                     186
2   Sam Otis              12   03-A    FM                     186
3   Geoff Howles          12   03-A    FM                     179
4   Nathaniel Sletten     11   03-A    Rome                   176
5   Matt Bartolotta       12   03-A    West Genesee           176
6   Jack Michaels         12   03-A    Baldwinsville          174
7   Nicolas Ferretti      12   03-A    Rome                   174
8   Jake McGowan          11   03-A    Liverpool              174
9   Carter Rodriguez      11   03-A    Liverpool              173
10  Colin Delaney         11   03-A    Baldwinsville          166
11  Jimmy Vasile          11   03-A    Auburn                 164
12  Jack Altimonda        11   03-A    FM                     164
13  James Peden           11   03-A    FM                     164
14  Rj Davis              11   03-A    CNS                    162
15  Matt Leclair          11   03-A    CNS                    161
16  Peter McMahon         9    03-A    West Genesee           161
17  Daniel Patrick        10   03-A    FM                     156
18  Joshua Koeppe         12   03-A    CNS                    156
19  Evan Romano           11   03-A    CNS                    153
20  Ryan Hagan            10   03-A    Liverpool              152

 

 Boys Class B - Jamesville Dewitt is the favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      63           Jamesville-Dewitt       53
  2   Whitesboro            109           East Syracuse-Minoa     70
  3   Central Valley        111           Central Valley         101
  4   East Syracuse-Minoa   112           Whitesboro             103
  5   Cortland              121           Cortland               125
  6   New Hartford          139           New Hartford           150
  7   Homer                 203           Oneida                 223
  8   Chittenango           229           Chittenango            230
  9   Fulton                249           Homer                  233
  10  Oneida                259           Fulton                 293
  11  Carthage              301           Carthage               318
  12  Mexico                328           Indian River           330
  13  Indian River          340           Watertown              337
  14  Watertown             358

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville Dewitt is the favorite to win this race and they are the defending Section 3 Class B champion ... Like last year, Jamesville Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, etc).

Looks like a real toss-up for the #2 spot ... Whitesboro beat Central Valley by 6 points at the TVL League Meet, however, Central Valley finished ahead of Whitesboro at the Adirondack Invitational merged results (with Cortland further back) ... East Syracuse-Minoa finished decently close to Jamesville Dewitt at the SCAC League Meet.

Individual Race ...Nick Berg is a solid favorite to win the Class B race ... a bunch of runners in contention for the other qualifying spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Nick Berg             12   03-B    ESM                    174
2   Nolan Stone           12   03-B    Central Valley         157
3   David Lamore          11   03-B    Whitesboro             153
4   Nate Rindfuss         11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      150
5   Jed Swayze            11   03-B    Homer                  147
6   Nathaniel Jennings    12   03-B    Oneida                 147
7   Casey Engineri        11   03-B    ESM                    144
8   Ahviere Reese         12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      143
9   Jared Valentin        10   03-B    Cortland               143
10  Jacob Hahn            11   03-B    Fulton                 141
11  Ryan Carroll          9    03-B    Fulton                 139
12  Jack Gibson           11   03-B    Central Valley         139
13  Brendan Svitak        11   03-B    Whitesboro             137
14  Brian Hulbert         12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      136
15  Kris Van Der Veur     10   03-B    Cortland               135
16  Sam Smith             10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      135

 

 Boys Class C - CBA is the favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   CBA-Syracuse           66           CBA-Syracuse            52
  2   Westhill               92           Skaneateles            101
  3   Skaneateles           100           Westhill               104
  4   Jordan-Elbridge       139           V-V-S                  133
  5   V-V-S                 149           Jordan-Elbridge        180
  6   Hannibal              229           Hannibal               203
  7   Pulaski               233           South Lewis            244
  8   South Lewis           256           Pulaski                256
  9   Marcellus             278           Camden                 268
  10  Cazenovia             292           Cazenovia              281
  11  Cooperstown           298           Marcellus              288
  12  Clinton               307           Cooperstown            320
  13  Camden                308           Holland Patent         334
  14  South Jefferson       342           South Jefferson        374
  15  Holland Patent        362           Clinton                394
  16  Adirondack            415           Adirondack             434
  17  Solvay                416           Solvay                 448
  18  APW                   478           Canastota              508
  19  Mt. Markham           532           Mount Markham          517
  20                                      APW                    543

Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA beat Westhill and Skaneateles at the recent OHSL Liberty Championship race.

Individual Race ... Tyler Fauvelle and Caleb Bender are co-favorites to win the Class C individual title.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Caleb Bender          11   03-C    Skaneateles            178
2   Tyler Fauvelle        12   03-C    Adirondack             177
3   Michael McMahon       10   03-C    CBA                    168
4   Dillon Plantz         12   03-C    Hannibal               166
5   Jared Smith           11   03-C    Cazenovia              164
6   Riley Nash            12   03-C    CBA                    161
7   Ryan Lansing          12   03-C    Cooperstown            159
8   Sean Dristle          12   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        158
9   Jacob Fricano         12   03-C    Westhill               158
10  Collin Stafford       8    03-C    South Lewis            157
11  Matt Persampieri      11   03-C    Skaneateles            156
12  Zach Medicis          12   03-C    CBA                    156
13  Jeremy Plumley        12   03-C    Camden                 155
14  Joel Gaffney          12   03-C    CBA                    154
15  Joe Norris            11   03-C    Skaneateles            153
16  Ward Oles             12   03-C    Cooperstown            152
17  Mike Ferrara          12   03-C    Westhill               152
18  Owen Vincent          12   03-C    South Jefferson        152
19  Noah Edick            9    03-C    South Lewis            151
20  Will Thornton         12   03-C    Westhill               151

 

 Boys Class D -  Beaver River the odds-on favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Beaver River           19           Beaver River            17
  2   Sauquoit Valley        91           Sauquoit Valley         93
  3   Tully                 127           Tully                  117
  4   Waterville            145           Waterville             128
  5   Oriskany              207           Oriskany               169
  6   LaFayette             218           LaFayette              247
  7   Remsen                238           New York Mills         268
  8   New York Mills        285           Weedsport              277
  9   Weedsport             332           Port Byron             306
  10  Port Byron            333           Hamilton               321
  11  MPH                   340           MPH                    329
  12  West Canada           366           Remsen                 344
  13  Utica Notre Dame      369           Utica Notre Dame       353
  14  Hamilton              378           Westmoreland           357
  15  Westmoreland          384           Fabius-Pompey          371
  16  Onondaga              391           West Canada            378
  17  Fabius-Pompey         418           Onondaga               399
  18  Dolgeville            450           Bishop Grimes          446
  19  Bishop Grimes         461           Thousand Islands       478
  20  Bishop Ludden         493           Dolgeville             518
  21  Thousand Islands      515           Herkimer               578
  22  Faith Heritage        526
  23  Herkimer              615

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending State and Section 3 Class D champion ... and Beaver River is a solid favorite to repeat in 2019 ... Like last year, Beaver River won the Frontier League meet.

Sauquoit Valley is the CSC Conference champion ... and improving Tully won the OHSL Patriot League Championship.

Individual Race ... Colton Kempney is the favorite to win the individual title ... Beaver River has 4 of the 5 top-rated runners.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Colton Kempney        10   03-D    Beaver River           179
2   Cory Demo             11   03-D    Beaver River           174
3   Josiah Evan           12   03-D    Beaver River           169
4   Dylan Williams        12   03-D    Waterville             162
5   Hunter Moore          11   03-D    Beaver River           154
6   Michael Roberts       12   03-D    Remsen                 154
7   Braden York           12   03-D    Port Byron             151
8   Brayden Campeau       10   03-D    Beaver River           150
9   Nathan Goldthrite     11   03-D    Beaver River           150
10  Ian Rauber            9    03-D    Tully                  149
11  Sean Kellam           11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        148
12  Dylan Price           11   03-D    Onondaga               147
13  Geo Silvestri         12   03-D    Oriskany               145
14  Michael Makuszak      11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        145
15  Cameron Jackson       10   03-D    Dolgeville             144
16  Ryan Mize             9    03-D    Tully                  144
17  Conrad Freed          11   03-D    Beaver River           144
18  Clayton Davis         12   03-D    West Canada            144
19  Benjamin Logalbo      10   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        143
20  Logan Houck           10   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        142
21  Aidan Brown           11   03-D    Tully                  142
22  Skye Helefant         12   03-D    Hamilton               141
23  Jack Rivet            12   03-D    Remsen                 140

 

 Girls Class A -  Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   26           Fayetteville-Manlius   21
  2   Cicero-North Syracuse  65           Liverpool              55
  3   Liverpool              69           Cicero-North Syracuse  75
  4   Rome Free             114           Rome Free Academy     111
  5   Baldwinsville         178           Baldwinsville         163
  6   Central Square        179           Oswego                189
  7   Oswego                180           Central Square        190
  8   West Genesee          181           West Genesee          213
  9   Auburn                254           Auburn                250
  10  Proctor               297           Proctor               293
  11  Nottingham            363           Nottingham            341
  12  Syracuse West         369           Syracuse West         345
  13  Henninger             377           Henninger             363
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius won the SCAC League Championship by 30 points with Cicero-North Syracuse and Liverpool 2nd and 3rd respectively (separated by only 3 points).

Rome Free Academy appears be a solid choice for 4th ... But 5th through 8th place appears to be a toss-up between the four teams listed above.

Individual Race ... Claire Walters has been running very well and is the individual favorite to win again ... Jenna Schulz is the #2-rated Class A runner with Hannah Kaercher and Phoebe White close behind ...  Kate Putman is a good choice to qualify as an individual along with Emily Toth-Ratazzi ... Grace Kaercher is one of four FM girls in top-rated six runners shown below.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Claire Walters        12   03-A    FM                     152
2   Jenna Schulz          12   03-A    Liverpool              144
3   Hannah Kaercher       9    03-A    FM                     138
4   Phoebe White          12   03-A    FM                     135
5   Kate Putman           9    03-A    CNS                    130
6   Grace Kaercher        11   03-A    FM                     129
7   Emily Toth-Ratazzi    10   03-A    Rome                   129
8   Molly Fitzgibbons     12   03-A    Oswego                 117
9   Sydney Carlson        11   03-A    Liverpool              116
10  Miranda Gilbert       12   03-A    Oswego                 111
11  Marissa Navarra       9    03-A    CNS                    110
12  Ani Sydorowych        8    03-A    FM                     104
13  Gabby Putman          7    03-A    CNS                    103
14  Allison Newton        11   03-A    CNS                    103
15  Amelia Amack          10   03-A    FM                     101
16  Jillian Howe          11   03-A    Central Square         100
17  Debbie Lucchetti      10   03-A    FM                     100
18  Gabby McCarthy        11   03-A    Liverpool              100
19  Marlo Townsend        9    03-A    Rome                   99
20  Kayleana Vandeusen    8    03-A    Rome                   99

 

 Girls Class B  -  New Hartford is the favorite
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   New Hartford           63           New Hartford           47
  2   CBA-Syracuse           79           Oneida                 75
  3   Oneida                 86           CBA-Syracuse           99
  4   Chittenango            96           Chittenango           102
  5   Jamesville Dewitt     126           Jamesville-Dewitt     133
  6   East Syracuse-Minoa   140           East Syracuse-Minoa   143
  7   Whitesboro            180           Whitesboro            177
  8   Homer                 238           Fulton                227
  9   Fulton                250           Homer                 241
  10  Carthage              255           Central Valley        268
  11  Watertown             267           Watertown             273
  12  Central Valley        297           Carthage              280
  13  Indian River          389           Indian River          366
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford finished 3rd at the TVL League Championship and then raced decently at the Adirondack Invitational ... CBA won the OHSL Liberty League Championship by 2 points over Chittenango.

Individual Race ... Olivia Morganti is the favorite to win the individual title ... Maddy Mack is a solid choice to finish 2nd.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Olivia Morganti       12   03-B    CBA                    129
2   Maddy Mack            10   03-B    Oneida                 120
3   Juliana Elberson      9    03-B    Oneida                 110
4   Kaylee Lacreta        11   03-B    New Hartford           108
5   Emma Anderson         10   03-B    Homer                  100
6   Rachael Ladd          9    03-B    ESM                    99
7   Lea Kyle              12   03-B    CBA                    94
8   Isabella Cannizzo     10   03-B    CBA                    87
9   Brianna Wheelock      12   03-B    New Hartford           85
10  Chelsea Lamphere      12   03-B    Chittenango            84
11  Abby Mainville        10   03-B    Fulton                 79
12  Madeline Foss         11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      77
13  Leah Hilton           9    03-B    New Hartford           75
14  Megan O'Malley        9    03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      74
15  Mary Roach            11   03-B    ESM                    71

 

 Girls Class C -  Camden a slight favorite over Clinton & South Lewis

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Camden                 70           Camden                 54
  2   Clinton                85           South Lewis            69
  3   South Lewis            88           Clinton                83
  4   South Jefferson       130           South Jefferson       122
  5   Westhill              180           Westhill              161
  6   Skaneateles           181           Skaneateles           203
  7   Cazenovia             220           Cazenovia             211
  8   V-V-S                 233           Marcellus             231
  9   Jordan-Elbridge       235           Jordan-Elbridge       234
  10  Marcellus             269           V-V-S                 279
  11  Adirondack            312           Adirondack            305
  12  Cato-Meridian         315           Cooperstown           351
  13  Cooperstown           357           Mount Markham         363
  14  Pulaski               399           Phoenix               366
  15  Phoenix               406           Holland Patent        372
  16  Holland Patent        412           Pulaski               386
  17  Mt. Markham           443           Port Byron            399
  18  Port Byron            460           Canastota             477
  19  Canastota             479
							

Pre-Race Analysis ... Camden lost in a tie-breaker to Class A Rome Free Academy at the TVL League Championship, but beat New Hartford (who is the favorite in the Class B race).

Clinton won the CSC Conference Championship by 19 points ... South Lewis won the Frontier League Championship, and South Lewis is likely to place 3 runners in the top 4 finishing positions ... Displacement could be a huge factor in determining the winner of this race ... Camden was Class B last year (only lost by 5 points at sectionals), and Camden is the slight favorite.

Individual Race ... The most competitive race of the day for the win ... Elizabeth Lucason, Hannah Ielfield, Byrnn Bernard and Lexie Bernard are very closely rated.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Hannah Ielfield       11   03-C    South Lewis            133
2   Brynn Bernard         8    03-C    South Lewis            133
3   Lexi Bernard          10   03-C    South Lewis            133
4   Elizabeth Lucason     10   03-C    Camden                 132
5   Alexa Doe             10   03-C    South Jefferson        120
6   Delaney Brewer        12   03-C    VVS                    117
7   Madison Luke          10   03-C    Clinton                110
8   Morgan Lucason        12   03-C    Camden                 102
9   Karsyn Burnash        10   03-C    South Jefferson        100
10  Taylor Harvey         11   03-C    Clinton                98
11  Olivia Furman         12   03-C    VVS                    97
12  Vassianna Klock       10   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        94
13  Haley Hinds           12   03-C    Camden                 94
14  Sarah Tallerico       10   03-C    Skaneateles            86
15  Liz Kessler           12   03-C    Westhill               85

 

 Girls Class D -  Tully is the  favorite
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  42           Tully                  44
  2   Remsen                 60           Beaver River           59
  3   Beaver River           74           Remsen                 61
  4   Oriskany               92           Oriskany              101
  5   West Canada           163           West Canada           166
  6   Weedsport             167           Bishop Grimes         193
  7   Sauquoit Valley       217           Weedsport             195
  8   Utica Notre Dame      222           Utica Notre Dame      201
  9   Bishop Grimes         241           Herkimer              237
  10  LaFayette             243           Onondaga              238
  11  Herkimer              264           Sandy Creek           253
  12  Onondaga              292           Thousand Islands      314
  13  Sandy Creek           318           Faith Heritage        325
  14  Thousand Islands      402
  15  Faith Heritage        407
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the defending Class D champion in both Section 3 and NY State ... Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship with team score of 23.

Remsen (actually Remsen & Old Forge are combined this season) finished 2nd to Clinton (projected to be 2nd in Class C) at the CSC Championship and is not really that far behind Tully ... and Beaver River is fairly close behind Remsen ... This is the last race of the day.

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and the odds-on favorite to win the individual title again ... Caitlyn Acompora, Katie Edinger, Emily Rudolph, Jade Dening and Paris Welker seem closely matched for the next five spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Brooke Rauber         11   03-D    Tully                  154
2   Caitlyn Acompora      10   03-D    Hamilton               105
3   Katie Edinger         9    03-D    Tully                  105
4   Emily Rudolph         12   03-D    Remsen                 102
5   Jade Dening           11   03-D    Remsen                 97
6   Paris Welker          10   03-D    Oriskany               95
7   Lilly Fowler-Conner   11   03-D    Tully                  92
8   Lydia Snow            11   03-D    Waterville             87
9   Gianna Welker         10   03-D    Oriskany               86
10  Anna-Mae Nellis       12   03-D    Dolgeville             85
11  Lauren Brandt         9    03-D    Beaver River           84
12  Jordyn Carlo          10   03-D    Oriskany               84
13  Brooke Wilson         12   03-D    Waterville             79
14  Alexis Lapp           10   03-D    Hamilton               75
15  Makayla Garrison      11   03-D    Beaver River           74
16  Lauren Yonko          11   03-D    Tully                  74
17  Alexis Lasher         10   03-D    Oriskany               73
18  Sarah Carroll         10   03-D    Weedsport              70
19  Sarah Thompson        12   03-D    Bishop Ludden          69
20  Julia Dening          9    03-D    Remsen                 67