November 7, 2019 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2019 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 7, 2019 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 9, 2019
... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 9, 2019
Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on Favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 31 Fayetteville-Manlius 30 2 Cicero-North Syracuse 91 Liverpool 58 3 Liverpool 97 Baldwinsville 107 4 Rome Free 106 Rome Free Academy 118 5 Baldwinsville 117 Cicero-North Syracuse 132 6 West Genesee 164 West Genesee 167 7 Oswego 228 Auburn 224 8 Auburn 232 Syracuse West 228 9 Central Square 262 Oswego 252 10 Syracuse West 262 Proctor 272 11 Proctor 264 Central Square 280 12 Nottingham 310 Nottingham 315 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius won the SCAC League Championship by 62 points scoring just 25 points ... Cicero-North Syracuse beat Liverpool by only 1 point at SCAC, and Rome Free Academy and Baldwinsville are within striking distance of the runner-up spot. Individual Race ... The top guys are listed below ... I expect somebody from FM will win ... The top five finishers not on the winning team qualify as individuals to the State Meet (for all classes). |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Peyton Geehrer 11 03-A FM 186 2 Sam Otis 12 03-A FM 186 3 Geoff Howles 12 03-A FM 179 4 Nathaniel Sletten 11 03-A Rome 176 5 Matt Bartolotta 12 03-A West Genesee 176 6 Jack Michaels 12 03-A Baldwinsville 174 7 Nicolas Ferretti 12 03-A Rome 174 8 Jake McGowan 11 03-A Liverpool 174 9 Carter Rodriguez 11 03-A Liverpool 173 10 Colin Delaney 11 03-A Baldwinsville 166 11 Jimmy Vasile 11 03-A Auburn 164 12 Jack Altimonda 11 03-A FM 164 13 James Peden 11 03-A FM 164 14 Rj Davis 11 03-A CNS 162 15 Matt Leclair 11 03-A CNS 161 16 Peter McMahon 9 03-A West Genesee 161 17 Daniel Patrick 10 03-A FM 156 18 Joshua Koeppe 12 03-A CNS 156 19 Evan Romano 11 03-A CNS 153 20 Ryan Hagan 10 03-A Liverpool 152 |
Boys Class B - Jamesville Dewitt is the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== =================== ===== 1 Jamesville Dewitt 63 Jamesville-Dewitt 53 2 Whitesboro 109 East Syracuse-Minoa 70 3 Central Valley 111 Central Valley 101 4 East Syracuse-Minoa 112 Whitesboro 103 5 Cortland 121 Cortland 125 6 New Hartford 139 New Hartford 150 7 Homer 203 Oneida 223 8 Chittenango 229 Chittenango 230 9 Fulton 249 Homer 233 10 Oneida 259 Fulton 293 11 Carthage 301 Carthage 318 12 Mexico 328 Indian River 330 13 Indian River 340 Watertown 337 14 Watertown 358 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville Dewitt is the favorite to win this race and they are the defending Section 3 Class B champion ... Like last year, Jamesville Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, etc). Looks like a real toss-up for the #2 spot ... Whitesboro beat Central Valley by 6 points at the TVL League Meet, however, Central Valley finished ahead of Whitesboro at the Adirondack Invitational merged results (with Cortland further back) ... East Syracuse-Minoa finished decently close to Jamesville Dewitt at the SCAC League Meet. Individual Race ...Nick Berg is a solid favorite to win the Class B race ... a bunch of runners in contention for the other qualifying spots. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Nick Berg 12 03-B ESM 174 2 Nolan Stone 12 03-B Central Valley 157 3 David Lamore 11 03-B Whitesboro 153 4 Nate Rindfuss 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 150 5 Jed Swayze 11 03-B Homer 147 6 Nathaniel Jennings 12 03-B Oneida 147 7 Casey Engineri 11 03-B ESM 144 8 Ahviere Reese 12 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 143 9 Jared Valentin 10 03-B Cortland 143 10 Jacob Hahn 11 03-B Fulton 141 11 Ryan Carroll 9 03-B Fulton 139 12 Jack Gibson 11 03-B Central Valley 139 13 Brendan Svitak 11 03-B Whitesboro 137 14 Brian Hulbert 12 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 136 15 Kris Van Der Veur 10 03-B Cortland 135 16 Sam Smith 10 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 135 |
Boys Class C - CBA is the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 CBA-Syracuse 66 CBA-Syracuse 52 2 Westhill 92 Skaneateles 101 3 Skaneateles 100 Westhill 104 4 Jordan-Elbridge 139 V-V-S 133 5 V-V-S 149 Jordan-Elbridge 180 6 Hannibal 229 Hannibal 203 7 Pulaski 233 South Lewis 244 8 South Lewis 256 Pulaski 256 9 Marcellus 278 Camden 268 10 Cazenovia 292 Cazenovia 281 11 Cooperstown 298 Marcellus 288 12 Clinton 307 Cooperstown 320 13 Camden 308 Holland Patent 334 14 South Jefferson 342 South Jefferson 374 15 Holland Patent 362 Clinton 394 16 Adirondack 415 Adirondack 434 17 Solvay 416 Solvay 448 18 APW 478 Canastota 508 19 Mt. Markham 532 Mount Markham 517 20 APW 543 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA beat Westhill and Skaneateles at the recent OHSL Liberty Championship race. Individual Race ... Tyler Fauvelle and Caleb Bender are co-favorites to win the Class C individual title. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Caleb Bender 11 03-C Skaneateles 178 2 Tyler Fauvelle 12 03-C Adirondack 177 3 Michael McMahon 10 03-C CBA 168 4 Dillon Plantz 12 03-C Hannibal 166 5 Jared Smith 11 03-C Cazenovia 164 6 Riley Nash 12 03-C CBA 161 7 Ryan Lansing 12 03-C Cooperstown 159 8 Sean Dristle 12 03-C Jordan-Elbridge 158 9 Jacob Fricano 12 03-C Westhill 158 10 Collin Stafford 8 03-C South Lewis 157 11 Matt Persampieri 11 03-C Skaneateles 156 12 Zach Medicis 12 03-C CBA 156 13 Jeremy Plumley 12 03-C Camden 155 14 Joel Gaffney 12 03-C CBA 154 15 Joe Norris 11 03-C Skaneateles 153 16 Ward Oles 12 03-C Cooperstown 152 17 Mike Ferrara 12 03-C Westhill 152 18 Owen Vincent 12 03-C South Jefferson 152 19 Noah Edick 9 03-C South Lewis 151 20 Will Thornton 12 03-C Westhill 151 |
Boys Class D - Beaver River the odds-on favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Beaver River 19 Beaver River 17 2 Sauquoit Valley 91 Sauquoit Valley 93 3 Tully 127 Tully 117 4 Waterville 145 Waterville 128 5 Oriskany 207 Oriskany 169 6 LaFayette 218 LaFayette 247 7 Remsen 238 New York Mills 268 8 New York Mills 285 Weedsport 277 9 Weedsport 332 Port Byron 306 10 Port Byron 333 Hamilton 321 11 MPH 340 MPH 329 12 West Canada 366 Remsen 344 13 Utica Notre Dame 369 Utica Notre Dame 353 14 Hamilton 378 Westmoreland 357 15 Westmoreland 384 Fabius-Pompey 371 16 Onondaga 391 West Canada 378 17 Fabius-Pompey 418 Onondaga 399 18 Dolgeville 450 Bishop Grimes 446 19 Bishop Grimes 461 Thousand Islands 478 20 Bishop Ludden 493 Dolgeville 518 21 Thousand Islands 515 Herkimer 578 22 Faith Heritage 526 23 Herkimer 615 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending State and Section 3 Class D champion ... and Beaver River is a solid favorite to repeat in 2019 ... Like last year, Beaver River won the Frontier League meet. Sauquoit Valley is the CSC Conference champion ... and improving Tully won the OHSL Patriot League Championship. Individual Race ... Colton Kempney is the favorite to win the individual title ... Beaver River has 4 of the 5 top-rated runners. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Colton Kempney 10 03-D Beaver River 179 2 Cory Demo 11 03-D Beaver River 174 3 Josiah Evan 12 03-D Beaver River 169 4 Dylan Williams 12 03-D Waterville 162 5 Hunter Moore 11 03-D Beaver River 154 6 Michael Roberts 12 03-D Remsen 154 7 Braden York 12 03-D Port Byron 151 8 Brayden Campeau 10 03-D Beaver River 150 9 Nathan Goldthrite 11 03-D Beaver River 150 10 Ian Rauber 9 03-D Tully 149 11 Sean Kellam 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 148 12 Dylan Price 11 03-D Onondaga 147 13 Geo Silvestri 12 03-D Oriskany 145 14 Michael Makuszak 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 145 15 Cameron Jackson 10 03-D Dolgeville 144 16 Ryan Mize 9 03-D Tully 144 17 Conrad Freed 11 03-D Beaver River 144 18 Clayton Davis 12 03-D West Canada 144 19 Benjamin Logalbo 10 03-D Sauquoit Valley 143 20 Logan Houck 10 03-D Sauquoit Valley 142 21 Aidan Brown 11 03-D Tully 142 22 Skye Helefant 12 03-D Hamilton 141 23 Jack Rivet 12 03-D Remsen 140 |
Girls Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ==================== ==== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 26 Fayetteville-Manlius 21 2 Cicero-North Syracuse 65 Liverpool 55 3 Liverpool 69 Cicero-North Syracuse 75 4 Rome Free 114 Rome Free Academy 111 5 Baldwinsville 178 Baldwinsville 163 6 Central Square 179 Oswego 189 7 Oswego 180 Central Square 190 8 West Genesee 181 West Genesee 213 9 Auburn 254 Auburn 250 10 Proctor 297 Proctor 293 11 Nottingham 363 Nottingham 341 12 Syracuse West 369 Syracuse West 345 13 Henninger 377 Henninger 363 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius won the SCAC League Championship by 30 points with Cicero-North Syracuse and Liverpool 2nd and 3rd respectively (separated by only 3 points). Rome Free Academy appears be a solid choice for 4th ... But 5th through 8th place appears to be a toss-up between the four teams listed above. Individual Race ... Claire Walters has been running very well and is the individual favorite to win again ... Jenna Schulz is the #2-rated Class A runner with Hannah Kaercher and Phoebe White close behind ... Kate Putman is a good choice to qualify as an individual along with Emily Toth-Ratazzi ... Grace Kaercher is one of four FM girls in top-rated six runners shown below. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Claire Walters 12 03-A FM 152 2 Jenna Schulz 12 03-A Liverpool 144 3 Hannah Kaercher 9 03-A FM 138 4 Phoebe White 12 03-A FM 135 5 Kate Putman 9 03-A CNS 130 6 Grace Kaercher 11 03-A FM 129 7 Emily Toth-Ratazzi 10 03-A Rome 129 8 Molly Fitzgibbons 12 03-A Oswego 117 9 Sydney Carlson 11 03-A Liverpool 116 10 Miranda Gilbert 12 03-A Oswego 111 11 Marissa Navarra 9 03-A CNS 110 12 Ani Sydorowych 8 03-A FM 104 13 Gabby Putman 7 03-A CNS 103 14 Allison Newton 11 03-A CNS 103 15 Amelia Amack 10 03-A FM 101 16 Jillian Howe 11 03-A Central Square 100 17 Debbie Lucchetti 10 03-A FM 100 18 Gabby McCarthy 11 03-A Liverpool 100 19 Marlo Townsend 9 03-A Rome 99 20 Kayleana Vandeusen 8 03-A Rome 99 |
Girls Class B - New Hartford is the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 New Hartford 63 New Hartford 47 2 CBA-Syracuse 79 Oneida 75 3 Oneida 86 CBA-Syracuse 99 4 Chittenango 96 Chittenango 102 5 Jamesville Dewitt 126 Jamesville-Dewitt 133 6 East Syracuse-Minoa 140 East Syracuse-Minoa 143 7 Whitesboro 180 Whitesboro 177 8 Homer 238 Fulton 227 9 Fulton 250 Homer 241 10 Carthage 255 Central Valley 268 11 Watertown 267 Watertown 273 12 Central Valley 297 Carthage 280 13 Indian River 389 Indian River 366 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford finished 3rd at the TVL League Championship and then raced decently at the Adirondack Invitational ... CBA won the OHSL Liberty League Championship by 2 points over Chittenango. Individual Race ... Olivia Morganti is the favorite to win the individual title ... Maddy Mack is a solid choice to finish 2nd. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Olivia Morganti 12 03-B CBA 129 2 Maddy Mack 10 03-B Oneida 120 3 Juliana Elberson 9 03-B Oneida 110 4 Kaylee Lacreta 11 03-B New Hartford 108 5 Emma Anderson 10 03-B Homer 100 6 Rachael Ladd 9 03-B ESM 99 7 Lea Kyle 12 03-B CBA 94 8 Isabella Cannizzo 10 03-B CBA 87 9 Brianna Wheelock 12 03-B New Hartford 85 10 Chelsea Lamphere 12 03-B Chittenango 84 11 Abby Mainville 10 03-B Fulton 79 12 Madeline Foss 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 77 13 Leah Hilton 9 03-B New Hartford 75 14 Megan O'Malley 9 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 74 15 Mary Roach 11 03-B ESM 71 |
Girls Class C - Camden a slight favorite over Clinton & South Lewis |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Camden 70 Camden 54 2 Clinton 85 South Lewis 69 3 South Lewis 88 Clinton 83 4 South Jefferson 130 South Jefferson 122 5 Westhill 180 Westhill 161 6 Skaneateles 181 Skaneateles 203 7 Cazenovia 220 Cazenovia 211 8 V-V-S 233 Marcellus 231 9 Jordan-Elbridge 235 Jordan-Elbridge 234 10 Marcellus 269 V-V-S 279 11 Adirondack 312 Adirondack 305 12 Cato-Meridian 315 Cooperstown 351 13 Cooperstown 357 Mount Markham 363 14 Pulaski 399 Phoenix 366 15 Phoenix 406 Holland Patent 372 16 Holland Patent 412 Pulaski 386 17 Mt. Markham 443 Port Byron 399 18 Port Byron 460 Canastota 477 19 Canastota 479 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Camden lost in a tie-breaker to Class A Rome Free Academy at the TVL League Championship, but beat New Hartford (who is the favorite in the Class B race). Clinton won the CSC Conference Championship by 19 points ... South Lewis won the Frontier League Championship, and South Lewis is likely to place 3 runners in the top 4 finishing positions ... Displacement could be a huge factor in determining the winner of this race ... Camden was Class B last year (only lost by 5 points at sectionals), and Camden is the slight favorite. Individual Race ... The most competitive race of the day for the win ... Elizabeth Lucason, Hannah Ielfield, Byrnn Bernard and Lexie Bernard are very closely rated. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Hannah Ielfield 11 03-C South Lewis 133 2 Brynn Bernard 8 03-C South Lewis 133 3 Lexi Bernard 10 03-C South Lewis 133 4 Elizabeth Lucason 10 03-C Camden 132 5 Alexa Doe 10 03-C South Jefferson 120 6 Delaney Brewer 12 03-C VVS 117 7 Madison Luke 10 03-C Clinton 110 8 Morgan Lucason 12 03-C Camden 102 9 Karsyn Burnash 10 03-C South Jefferson 100 10 Taylor Harvey 11 03-C Clinton 98 11 Olivia Furman 12 03-C VVS 97 12 Vassianna Klock 10 03-C Jordan-Elbridge 94 13 Haley Hinds 12 03-C Camden 94 14 Sarah Tallerico 10 03-C Skaneateles 86 15 Liz Kessler 12 03-C Westhill 85 |
Girls Class D - Tully is the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Tully 42 Tully 44 2 Remsen 60 Beaver River 59 3 Beaver River 74 Remsen 61 4 Oriskany 92 Oriskany 101 5 West Canada 163 West Canada 166 6 Weedsport 167 Bishop Grimes 193 7 Sauquoit Valley 217 Weedsport 195 8 Utica Notre Dame 222 Utica Notre Dame 201 9 Bishop Grimes 241 Herkimer 237 10 LaFayette 243 Onondaga 238 11 Herkimer 264 Sandy Creek 253 12 Onondaga 292 Thousand Islands 314 13 Sandy Creek 318 Faith Heritage 325 14 Thousand Islands 402 15 Faith Heritage 407 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the defending Class D champion in both Section 3 and NY State ... Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship with team score of 23. Remsen (actually Remsen & Old Forge are combined this season) finished 2nd to Clinton (projected to be 2nd in Class C) at the CSC Championship and is not really that far behind Tully ... and Beaver River is fairly close behind Remsen ... This is the last race of the day. Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and the odds-on favorite to win the individual title again ... Caitlyn Acompora, Katie Edinger, Emily Rudolph, Jade Dening and Paris Welker seem closely matched for the next five spots. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Brooke Rauber 11 03-D Tully 154 2 Caitlyn Acompora 10 03-D Hamilton 105 3 Katie Edinger 9 03-D Tully 105 4 Emily Rudolph 12 03-D Remsen 102 5 Jade Dening 11 03-D Remsen 97 6 Paris Welker 10 03-D Oriskany 95 7 Lilly Fowler-Conner 11 03-D Tully 92 8 Lydia Snow 11 03-D Waterville 87 9 Gianna Welker 10 03-D Oriskany 86 10 Anna-Mae Nellis 12 03-D Dolgeville 85 11 Lauren Brandt 9 03-D Beaver River 84 12 Jordyn Carlo 10 03-D Oriskany 84 13 Brooke Wilson 12 03-D Waterville 79 14 Alexis Lapp 10 03-D Hamilton 75 15 Makayla Garrison 11 03-D Beaver River 74 16 Lauren Yonko 11 03-D Tully 74 17 Alexis Lasher 10 03-D Oriskany 73 18 Sarah Carroll 10 03-D Weedsport 70 19 Sarah Thompson 12 03-D Bishop Ludden 69 20 Julia Dening 9 03-D Remsen 67 |