| Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2019 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 30, 2019
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... Projected Scores were posted on November 28, 2019 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 30, 2019 |
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 30, 2019
| NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... |
NXN-NY Info at: https://nxrny.runnerspace.com/
| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 110 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 74
2 Shenendehowa 145 (02-A ) Burnt Hills 106
3 Burnt Hills 150 (02-B ) Shenendehowa 145
4 Guilderland 160 (02-A ) Mount Academy 160
5 Pittsford Mendon 195 (05-B ) Saranac Lake 194
6 Saranac Lake 220 (07-C ) Liverpool 225
7 Xavier 225 (CHS ) Saratoga Springs 228
8 Beaver River 230 (03-D ) Guilderland 238
9 Fordham Prep 245 (CHSAA) Beaver River 247
10 Mount Academy 255 (09-B ) Pittsford Mendon 258
11 Northport 270 (11-A ) Xavier 271
12 East Aurora 300 (06-B ) Shaker 286
13 Shaker 310 (02-A ) East Aurora 290
14 Saratoga 323 (02-A ) Northport 293
15 Liverpool 337 (03-A ) Westhampton Beach 329
16 Corning 416 (04-A ) Fordham Prep 337
17 Westhampton 432 (11-B ) Corning 410
18 Susan Wagner 441 (PSAL ) Arlington 492
19 Hackley 479 (AIS ) Manhasset 524
20 Manhasset 520 (08-B ) Bethlehem 553
21 Arlington 552 (01-A ) Great Neck South 597
22 Washingtonville 580 (09-A ) Arkport 598
23 Delhi 614 (04-D ) Washingtonville 668
24 Ballston Spa 631 (02-A ) Ballston Spa 697
25 Bethlehem 640 (02-A ) Hackley 716
26 Great Neck South 660 (08-A ) Columbia 740
27 Columbia 683 (02-A )
28 Arkport 705 (05-D )
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Pre-Race Analysis ... The numbers make Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite base on their record performance at the NY State Meet at SUNY Plattsburgh. The race for the second auto-qualifying spot looks very competitive between Shenendehowa, Burnt Hills and Guilderland ... and several other teams are not that far behind and could surprise with a big performance. Individual Race ... The top 30 overall speed-rated boys in NY are listed in the table below ... The majority are running in the NXR Championship race ...The top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN qualify for NXN Nationals ... Sam Lawler is the favorite, but the overall speed ratings below indicate a wide-open race for the top spots ... Looks very competitive. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Sam Lawler 12 05-B Pittsford Mendon 190 NXR Team 2 Peyton Geehrer 11 03-A FM 188 NXR Team 3 Sam Otis 12 03-A FM 187 NXR Team 4 Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 12 09-A Warwick 185 NXR Individual 5 Colton Kempney 10 03-D Beaver River 185 NXR Team 6 Josh Stone 12 04-B Windsor 184 NXR Individual 7 Ryan Allison 10 02-B Burnt Hills 184 NXR Team 8 Kal Lewis 12 11-D Shelter Island 184 ... Foot Locker 9 Geoff Howles 12 03-A FM 183 NXR Team 10 Jacob Ireland 12 PSA Riverdale Kings 182 ... Foot Locker 11 Tom Cirrito 12 11-B Miller Place 182 ... not entered 12 Caleb Bender 11 03-C Skaneateles 182 NXR Individual 13 Daniel Shephard 12 01-A North Rockland 182 NXR Individual 14 Michael Danzi 12 11-A Smithtown 181 ... not entered 15 Thomas Ragone 12 02-A Niskayuna 181 NXR Individual 16 Sean O'Brien 12 02-A Guilderland 181 NXR Team 17 Gitch Hayes 10 02-C LaSalle 181 NXR Individual 18 Gavin Ehlers 10 11-B Westhampton 180 NXR Individual 19 Michael Silveri 11 11-A EastportSManor 180 NXR Individual 20 Niall Ryan 12 CHS Fordham Prep 180 NXR Team 21 Pedro Bravo 12 CHS Iona Prep 180 NXR Individual 22 Kaelen Ruder 11 05-A Fairport 179 NXR Invidual 23 Peter Fogarty 11 07-C Saranac Lake 179 NXR Team 24 Ryan Eagan 12 AIS Browning School 179 ... Foot Locker 25 Evan Hilbert 12 CHS St. Joe's-Buff 179 ... Foot Locker 26 Vinny Pagliaccio 11 06-B West Seneca East 179 ... not entered 27 Jason Linzer 12 08-B Seaford 178 NXN Individual 28 Nicolas Ferretti 12 03-A Rome 178 NXN Individual 29 Tyler Fauvelle 12 03-C Adirondack 178 ... not entered 30 Oliver Branham-Upton 12 CHS Xavier 178 NXR Team |
| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Too Close to Call |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Saratoga Springs 55 (02-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 47
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 57 (03-A ) Saratoga Springs 49
3 Shenendehowa 150 (02-A ) North Rockland 112
4 North Rockland 155 (01-A ) Liverpool 164
5 East Aurora 155 (06-B ) East Aurora 176
6 Greenwich 205 (02-C ) Niskayuna 196
7 Bethlehem 210 (02-A ) Shenendehowa 222
8 Arlington 220 (01-A ) Bethlehem 224
9 Niskayuna 220 (02-A ) Corning 237
10 Liverpool 245 (03-A ) Arlington 238
11 Corning 260 (04-A ) Camden 269
12 Mohonasen 307 (02-B ) Greenwich 309
13 Camden 339 (03-C ) Mohonasen 314
14 Ballston Spa 361 (02-A ) Sachem East 331
15 Syosset 376 (08-A ) Burnt Hills 341
16 Sachem East 413 (11-A ) Ballston Spa 396
17 Washingtonville 449 (09-A ) Elmira Notre Dame 404
18 Sachem North 464 (11-A ) Sachem North 505
19 Elmira Notre Dame 485 (04-D ) Washingtonville 600
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is toss-up between
Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga Springs. The race for the #3 team spot looks like a toss-up between Shenendehowa, North Rockland and East Aurora. Individual Race ... Most of the top overall speed-rated girls in NY are entered in the NXR Championship race ... Katelyn Tuohy is the solid favorite entering this New York regional ... Claire Walters (FM) will likely get a bid to NXN (either with the FM team or as an individual) ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is again a favorite to grab an individual qualifying spot ... Karrie Baloga has a good chance of qualifying for Foot Locker Nationals at Van Cortlandt Park ... Jenna Schulz and Sarah Connelly qualified for NXN last year (and finished 22nd and 30th, respectively, at NXN Nationals) ... Could be competitive for the remaining individual spots (obviously depends on who gets qualifying team spots). The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams (assuming the #3 finishing team has a very good performance). |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Katelyn Tuohy 12 01-A North Rockland 168 NXR Team 2 Claire Walters 12 03-A FM 158 NXR Team 3 Brooke Rauber 11 03-D Tully 156 NXR Individual 4 Karrie Baloga 9 09-A Cornwall 152 ... Foot Locker 5 Jenna Schulz 12 03-A Liverpool 149 NXR Team 6 Ella Kurto 10 02-A Saratoga 145 NXR Team 7 Phoebe White 12 03-A FM 143 NXR Team 8 Sarah Connelly 12 11-B Mount Sinai 141 NXR Individual 9 Hannah Kaercher 9 03-A FM 140 NXR Team 10 Tori Mariano 12 02-A Shaker 137 ... not entered 11 Sheridan Wheeler 9 02-A Saratoga 136 NXR Team 12 Elizabeth Lucason 10 03-C Camden 136 NXR Team 13 Ava Jolley 11 01-C North Salem 135 NXR Individual 14 McKinley Wheeler 9 02-A Saratoga 135 NXR Team 15 Brynn Bernard 8 03-C South Lewis 135 NXR Individual 16 Jada Dennis 12 02-A Shenendehowa 134 NXR Team 17 Leonni Griffin 8 02-A Shaker 134 NXR Individual 18 Haleigh Morales 12 01-A North Rockland 134 NXR Team 19 Katie Turk 11 01-A Carmel 133 ... Foot Locker 20 Megan McLaughlin 10 06-B East Aurora 133 NXR Team 21 Lexi Bernard 10 03-C South Lewis 133 NXR Individual 22 Sydney Nowicki 11 06-A Lockport 133 NXR Individual 23 Hannah Ielfield 11 03-C South Lewis 133 NXR Individual 24 Olivia Morganti 12 03-B CBA 133 ... Foot Locker 25 Rylee Davis 9 02-A Bethlehem 133 NXR Team 26 Mady Moroney 8 01-B Pearl River 133 ... not entered 27 Faith Demars 12 02-A Ballston Spa 132 NXR Individual 28 Grace Kaercher 11 03-A FM 132 NXR Team 29 Mary Hennelly 12 01-A Suffern 130 ... Entered in Both 30 Brynne Wright 12 02-C Greenwich 130 NXR Team |