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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2019

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 30, 2019

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... Projected Scores were posted on November 28, 2019 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 30, 2019

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 30, 2019

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ...

NXN-NY Info at:  https://nxrny.runnerspace.com/

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
  1  Fayetteville-Manlius     110    (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       74 
  2  Shenendehowa             145    (02-A )     Burnt Hills               106 
  3  Burnt Hills              150    (02-B )     Shenendehowa              145 
  4  Guilderland              160    (02-A )     Mount Academy             160 
  5  Pittsford Mendon         195    (05-B )     Saranac Lake              194 
  6  Saranac Lake             220    (07-C )     Liverpool                 225 
  7  Xavier                   225    (CHS  )     Saratoga Springs          228 
  8  Beaver River             230    (03-D )     Guilderland               238 
  9  Fordham Prep             245    (CHSAA)     Beaver River              247 
 10  Mount Academy            255    (09-B )     Pittsford Mendon          258 
 11  Northport                270    (11-A )     Xavier                    271 
 12  East Aurora              300    (06-B )     Shaker                    286 
 13  Shaker                   310    (02-A )     East Aurora               290 
 14  Saratoga                 323    (02-A )     Northport                 293 
 15  Liverpool                337    (03-A )     Westhampton Beach         329 
 16  Corning                  416    (04-A )     Fordham Prep              337 
 17  Westhampton              432    (11-B )     Corning                   410 
 18  Susan Wagner             441    (PSAL )     Arlington                 492 
 19  Hackley                  479    (AIS  )     Manhasset                 524 
 20  Manhasset                520    (08-B )     Bethlehem                 553 
 21  Arlington                552    (01-A )     Great Neck South          597 
 22  Washingtonville          580    (09-A )     Arkport                   598 
 23  Delhi                    614    (04-D )     Washingtonville           668 
 24  Ballston Spa             631    (02-A )     Ballston Spa              697 
 25  Bethlehem                640    (02-A )     Hackley                   716 
 26  Great Neck South         660    (08-A )     Columbia                  740 
 27  Columbia                 683    (02-A )
 28  Arkport                  705    (05-D )

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... The numbers make Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite base on their record performance at the NY State Meet at SUNY Plattsburgh.

The race for the second auto-qualifying spot looks very competitive between Shenendehowa, Burnt Hills and Guilderland ... and several other teams are not that far behind and could surprise with a big performance.

Individual Race ... The top 30 overall speed-rated boys in NY are listed in the table below ...  The majority are running in the NXR Championship race ...The top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN qualify for NXN Nationals ... Sam Lawler is the favorite, but the overall speed ratings below indicate a wide-open race for the top spots ... Looks very competitive.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Sam Lawler            12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       190    NXR Team
2   Peyton Geehrer        11   03-A    FM                     188    NXR Team
3   Sam Otis              12   03-A    FM                     187    NXR Team
4   Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 12   09-A    Warwick                185    NXR Individual
5   Colton Kempney        10   03-D    Beaver River           185    NXR Team
6   Josh Stone            12   04-B    Windsor                184    NXR Individual
7   Ryan Allison          10   02-B    Burnt Hills            184    NXR Team
8   Kal Lewis             12   11-D    Shelter Island         184    ... Foot Locker
9   Geoff Howles          12   03-A    FM                     183    NXR Team
10  Jacob Ireland         12   PSA     Riverdale Kings        182    ... Foot Locker
11  Tom Cirrito           12   11-B    Miller Place           182    ... not entered
12  Caleb Bender          11   03-C    Skaneateles            182    NXR Individual
13  Daniel Shephard       12   01-A    North Rockland         182    NXR Individual
14  Michael Danzi         12   11-A    Smithtown              181    ... not entered
15  Thomas Ragone         12   02-A    Niskayuna              181    NXR Individual
16  Sean O'Brien          12   02-A    Guilderland            181    NXR Team
17  Gitch Hayes           10   02-C    LaSalle                181    NXR Individual
18  Gavin Ehlers          10   11-B    Westhampton            180    NXR Individual
19  Michael Silveri       11   11-A    EastportSManor         180    NXR Individual
20  Niall Ryan            12   CHS     Fordham Prep           180    NXR Team
21  Pedro Bravo           12   CHS     Iona Prep              180    NXR Individual
22  Kaelen Ruder          11   05-A    Fairport               179    NXR Invidual
23  Peter Fogarty         11   07-C    Saranac Lake           179    NXR Team
24  Ryan Eagan            12   AIS     Browning School        179    ... Foot Locker
25  Evan Hilbert          12   CHS     St. Joe's-Buff         179    ... Foot Locker
26  Vinny Pagliaccio      11   06-B    West Seneca East       179    ... not entered
27  Jason Linzer          12   08-B    Seaford                178    NXN Individual
28  Nicolas Ferretti      12   03-A    Rome                   178    NXN Individual
29  Tyler Fauvelle        12   03-C    Adirondack             178    ... not entered
30  Oliver Branham-Upton  12   CHS     Xavier                 178    NXR Team

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Too Close to Call
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
  1  Saratoga Springs          55    (02-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       47
  2  Fayetteville-Manlius      57    (03-A )     Saratoga Springs           49
  3  Shenendehowa             150    (02-A )     North Rockland            112
  4  North Rockland           155    (01-A )     Liverpool                 164
  5  East Aurora              155    (06-B )     East Aurora               176
  6  Greenwich                205    (02-C )     Niskayuna                 196
  7  Bethlehem                210    (02-A )     Shenendehowa              222
  8  Arlington                220    (01-A )     Bethlehem                 224
  9  Niskayuna                220    (02-A )     Corning                   237
 10  Liverpool                245    (03-A )     Arlington                 238
 11  Corning                  260    (04-A )     Camden                    269
 12  Mohonasen                307    (02-B )     Greenwich                 309
 13  Camden                   339    (03-C )     Mohonasen                 314
 14  Ballston Spa             361    (02-A )     Sachem East               331
 15  Syosset                  376    (08-A )     Burnt Hills               341
 16  Sachem East              413    (11-A )     Ballston Spa              396
 17  Washingtonville          449    (09-A )     Elmira Notre Dame         404
 18  Sachem North             464    (11-A )     Sachem North              505
 19  Elmira Notre Dame        485    (04-D )     Washingtonville           600
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... This is toss-up between Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga Springs.

The race for the #3 team spot looks like a toss-up between Shenendehowa, North Rockland and East Aurora.

Individual Race ... Most of the top overall speed-rated girls in NY are entered in the NXR Championship race ... Katelyn Tuohy is the solid favorite entering this New York regional ... Claire Walters (FM) will likely get a bid to NXN (either with the FM team or as an individual) ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is again a favorite to grab an individual qualifying spot ... Karrie Baloga has a good chance of qualifying for Foot Locker Nationals at Van Cortlandt Park ... Jenna Schulz and Sarah Connelly qualified for NXN last year (and finished 22nd and 30th, respectively, at NXN Nationals) ... Could be competitive for the remaining individual spots (obviously depends on who gets qualifying team spots).

The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams (assuming the #3 finishing team has a very good performance).

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Katelyn Tuohy         12   01-A    North Rockland         168    NXR Team
2   Claire Walters        12   03-A    FM                     158    NXR Team
3   Brooke Rauber         11   03-D    Tully                  156    NXR Individual
4   Karrie Baloga         9    09-A    Cornwall               152    ... Foot Locker
5   Jenna Schulz          12   03-A    Liverpool              149    NXR Team
6   Ella Kurto            10   02-A    Saratoga               145    NXR Team
7   Phoebe White          12   03-A    FM                     143    NXR Team
8   Sarah Connelly        12   11-B    Mount Sinai            141    NXR Individual
9   Hannah Kaercher       9    03-A    FM                     140    NXR Team
10  Tori Mariano          12   02-A    Shaker                 137    ... not entered
11  Sheridan Wheeler      9    02-A    Saratoga               136    NXR Team
12  Elizabeth Lucason     10   03-C    Camden                 136    NXR Team
13  Ava Jolley            11   01-C    North Salem            135    NXR Individual
14  McKinley Wheeler      9    02-A    Saratoga               135    NXR Team
15  Brynn Bernard         8    03-C    South Lewis            135    NXR Individual
16  Jada Dennis           12   02-A    Shenendehowa           134    NXR Team
17  Leonni Griffin        8    02-A    Shaker                 134    NXR Individual
18  Haleigh Morales       12   01-A    North Rockland         134    NXR Team
19  Katie Turk            11   01-A    Carmel                 133    ... Foot Locker
20  Megan McLaughlin      10   06-B    East Aurora            133    NXR Team
21  Lexi Bernard          10   03-C    South Lewis            133    NXR Individual
22  Sydney Nowicki        11   06-A    Lockport               133    NXR Individual
23  Hannah Ielfield       11   03-C    South Lewis            133    NXR Individual
24  Olivia Morganti       12   03-B    CBA                    133    ... Foot Locker
25  Rylee Davis           9    02-A    Bethlehem              133    NXR Team
26  Mady Moroney          8    01-B    Pearl River            133    ... not entered
27  Faith Demars          12   02-A    Ballston Spa           132    NXR Individual
28  Grace Kaercher        11   03-A    FM                     132    NXR Team
29  Mary Hennelly         12   01-A    Suffern                130    ... Entered in Both
30  Brynne Wright         12   02-C    Greenwich              130    NXR Team