Foot Locker Speed Rating Preview 2019

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Foot Locker 2019 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating for betting purposes (a "morning-line" or "seed-time" of sorts)
 ... All Available Ratings - speed ratings from the season in the TullyRunners database (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

BOYS - Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings - 2019

General Comment ... I suspect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be higher than those shown in table above (that's typically the case) ... To finish in top places at Foot Locker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top national competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (often season-best performances).

Twelve underclassmen from last year's Foot Locker return this year ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

Returning Foot Locker Runners & Speed Rating from 2018:

                    Place  Speed Rating
Graydon Morris    -   3     196
Carter Solomon    -   4     196
Josh Methner      -   6     195
Evan Bishop       -   9     194
Daniel O'Brien    -  12     189
Thomas Boyden     -  13     189
Zachary Stewart   -  17     185
Matthew Farrell   -  23     182
Brendan Favazza   -  27     180
Patrick Anderson  -  29     179
Liam Murphy       -  33     177
Silas Winders     -  39     163

Ten runners in this year's Foot Locker field competed at NXN Nationals 2019:

                   Place  NXN 2019 Speed Rating
Josh Methner          2    200  (season best)
Liam Murphy           8    198  (season best, tied)
Jack Spamer          17    194  (season best)
Bob Liking           19    192  (..2nd best by 0.20)
Kevin Antczak        24    190  (..season best is 194)
Judson Greer         26    190  (..season best is 194)
Evan Bishop          33    189  (..season best is 193)
Brendan Favazza      39    188  (..season best is 192)
Jack Jennings        44    187  (..season best is 199)
Michael Hancock      48    185  (..season best is 193)

The Top Speed Ratings at NXN Nationals 2019 were:

                Place   NXN 2019 Speed Rating
NICO YOUNG         1     204.57   205
JOSH METHNER       2     199.97   200
CALEB BROWN        3     199.23   199
MATT STRANGIO      4     199.07   199
CONNOR OHLSON      5     199.00   199
EJ HOLLAND         6     198.80   199
COLE SPROUT        7     198.63   199
LIAM MURPHY        8     198.00   198
CARSON BELNAP      9     197.53   198
WIL SMITH          10    196.70   197

Some Individual Runner Comments

Josh Methner ... enters Foot Locker Nationals with the highest speed rating (200) that was performed at NXN Nationals where Josh Methner finished 2nd ... He is undefeated in all other seasonal races, including both the Foot Locker and NXN Midwest Regional races ... Finished 6th at Foot Locker last year ... This makes Josh Methner the morning-line favorite to win Foot Locker.

Liam Murphy ... finished a very good 8th at NXN Nationals and has posted two 198 speed ratings this season (NXN and New Jersey Groups) ... Consistently high speed ratings all season ... a serious contender to win Foot Locker.

Patrick Anderson ... undefeated in 2019 and winner of Foot Locker Northeast ... Posted excellent speed ratings of 196 and 195 at his last two races (Foot Locker NE and Pennsylvania States) ... Not sure how good he is, but is certainly a serious contender to win Foot Locker.

Graydon Morris ... the top returning runner from Foot Locker 2018 where he finished 3rd (196 speed rating) ... he was also the top returning runner at Foot Locker the previous year ... Graydon Morris has performed exceptionally well Balboa Park, so I'm expected another big performance.

Gavin Sherry ... only a sophomore ... many good seasonal performances ... undefeated in 2019 until finishing 2nd at Foot Locker Northeast with a very speed rating (195).

Other Runners ... Returning runners like Carter Solomon (4th last year), Evan Bishop (9th last year), Daniel O'Brien (12th last year) and Thomas Boyden (13th last year) are candidates to have outstanding races ... Jack Jennings pop a huge speed rating at New Jersey Groups (199).

 ... 39 of the 40 Boys entered Foot Locker 2019 have at least one speed rating of 190 or higher this season ... and that makes the race competitive and interesting ... NXN Nationals 2019 had 204 Boys entered with 44 having at least one speed rating of 190 or higher ... This makes Foot Locker and NXN the two highest quality races in US by far ... I need to see the results of Foot Locker before comparing the two races.

GIRLS - Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings - 2019

139

General Comments

14 underclassmen return this year from last year's Foot Locker ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

Returning Foot Locker Runners & Speed Rating from 2018:

                     Place  Speed Rating
Sydney Masciarelli -   1     164
Katelynne Hart     -   2     164
Abby VanderKooi    -   3     159
Taylor Ewert       -   4     157
Kate Wiser         -   7     153
Jenna Hutchins     -   9     150
Marlee Starliper   -  13     146
Sofie Matson       -  14     144
Alyssa Hendrix     -  17     142
Riley Stewart      -  21     139
Valerie Lastra     -  26     136
Grace Ping         -  31     127
Nicole Vanasse     -  32     126
Anna Martin        -  34     124

Eight runners in this year's Foot Locker field competed at NXN Nationals 2019:

                   Place   NXN 2019 Speed Rating
Taylor Ewert          2    163  (season best)
Marlee Starliper      5    157  (..season best is 163)
Annalyssa Crain      16    149  (season best)
Tatum David          17    149  (..season best is 153)
Kelsey Harrington    20    148  (..season best is 151)
Analee Weaver        29    143  (..3rd best by 0.27)
Riley Stewart        31    141  (..season best is 152)
Katelynne Hart       50    134  (..season best is 159)

Interestingly, only two of the 8 girls who raced at NXN had speed rating PRs ... The conditions were cold, rainy, sloppy at the Glendoveer course ... Maybe some of the girls will like San Diego conditions better.

The Top Speed Ratings at NXN National 2019 were:

                    Place  Speed Rating
KATELYN TUOHY         1    162.87   163
TAYLOR EWERT          2    162.63   163
SYDNEY THORVALDSON    3    162.53   163
CLAIRE WALTERS        4    159.53   160
MARLEE STARLIPER      5    157.03   157
CARLIE DOROSTKAR      6    156.87   157
BROOKE RAUBER         7    156.13   156
CHARLOTTE BEDNAR      8    155.50   156
KATE PETERS           9    154.43   154
FIONA MAX            10    152.27   152

Selected Individual Runners

Sydney Masciarelli ... Sydney Masciarelli is the defending Foot Locker Champion ... Last year, she entered the race with the highest speed rating of all runners (161), but not this year ... she was beaten at Foot Locker Northeast by Marlee Starliper ... There is still an "unknown factor" surrounding Sydney Masciarelli because she attends a prep school in Connecticut (Marianapolis Prep) that does not compete against public high schools ... With the exception of her Foot Locker Northeast speed rating (158), my other seasonal speed ratings for Sydney Masciarelli are approximations based on limited data (even though those ratings seem reasonable).

The question last year was "How good is Sydney Masciarelli?" ... The question this year changes to "How good will Sydney Masciarelli be at Foot Locker Nationals 2019?"

Often, when a defending champion is racing well, the defending champion will be the morning-line favorite of a race ... Because Sydney Masciarelli did race well at Foot Locker Northeast, I believe she should be considered one of the morning-line co-favorites.

Marlee Starliper ... Marlee Starliper was undefeated in 2019 before finishing 5th at NXN Nationals (157 speed rating) ... Marlee's 163 speed rating at Foot Locker Northeast is the highest speed rating of all girls entering Foot Locker Nationals (a fraction of a point higher than Taylor Ewert's 163 rating at NXN) ... Marlee has not had her best races at Balboa Park in the past, but I think 2019 could be different ... Marlee Starliper is one of the co-favorites.

Taylor Ewert ... Taylor Ewert finished a very close 2nd to Katelyn Tuohy at NXN Nationals (163 speed rating) ... and that alone makes her a co-favorite to win Foot Locker Nationals ... Taylor Ewert has been racing well all season (8 races with speed ratings of 150 or higher).

Zofia Dudek ... Zofia Dudek won NXN Midwest beating both Katelyn Hart and Taylor Ewert (a 160 speed rating) ... She then qualified at muddy Foot Locker Midwest before traveling to Lisbon, Portugal where she finished 5th at the European U20 Cross Country Championships for Poland's junior team (same day as NXN Nationals) ... Zofia Dudek is a co-favorite to win Foot Locker Nationals ... I wonder how tired she might be after all that racing and traveling.

Abby Vanderkooi ... Ran remarkably well to finish 3rd at Foot Locker last year as a freshman ... Abby Vanderkooi won Foot Locker Midwest (160 speed rating) beating both Taylor Ewert and Zofia Dudek ... In an interview, Abby said she had an iron-issue (low iron levels) that was being corrected, and her performance at Foot Locker Midwest says "Look-Out" ... She is a co-favorite to win Foot Locker Nationals.

Katelynne Hart ... Katelynne Hart finished 2nd at Foot Locker Nationals the past two years ... Last year, she ran an outstanding front-running race, but was edged at the finish by Sydney Masciarelli ... Once again, did not have a good race at NXN Nationals, but that occurred the past two years followed by excellent performances at Balboa Park ... Finished a very good 2nd to Zofia Dudek at NXN Midwest (159 speed rating) ... An obvious contender for a top spot.

Jenna Hutchins ... Ava Dobson ... Carly McNatt ... Three excellent runners who might impact this race ... Jenna Hutchins and Ava Dobson finished 1st and 2nd respectively at Foot Locker South (both 155 speed ratings) ... Carly McNatt could be this year's freshman surprise (and freshman Tatum David is also really good, and the Midwest girls can be really strong at Foot Locker).

Kate Wiser ... great performance in finishing 7th last year at Foot Locker ... expect another top performance this year.

Kerrie Baloga ... another outstanding freshman ... very consistent ... My NY-bias is rooting for her.

This is a Top-Quality Race just like NXN Nationals

 ... 16 of the 40 Girls entered Foot Locker 2019 have at least one speed rating of 150 or higher this season ... NXN Nationals had 203 Girls entered with 24 having at least one speed rating of 150 or higher ... This makes Foot Locker and NXN the two highest quality races in US by far ... I need to see the results of Foot Locker before deciding which of the two meets is strongest overall ... NXN did have Katelyn Tuohy and others not at Foot Locker ... But Foot Locker has top runners that turned down NXN At-Large invitations or qualifying spots (Sydney Masciarelli, Abby Vanderkooi, Zofia Dudek, Jenna Hutchins, Ava Dobson and Karrie Baloga).

This could be a a really good competitive race!