[TullyRunners Home Page]

  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2018

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 24, 2018

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... Projected Scores were posted on November 21, 2018 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 24, 2018 

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 24, 2018

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ...

NXN-NY Info at:  https://nxrny.runnerspace.com/

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite 
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     45     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius        28
 2   Burnt Hills              92     (02-B )     Burnt Hills                 78
 3   Smithtown               155     (11-A )     Liverpool                  126
 4   Corning                 165     (04-A )     Corning                    157
 5   Liverpool               173     (03-A )     Smithtown                  176
 6   Shenendehowa            214     (02-A )     Saratoga                   201
 7   Saratoga                215     (02-A )     Northport                  252
 8   Guilderland             229     (02-A )     Shenedehowa                301
 9   Northport               335     (11-A )     Beaver River               323
 10  Archbishop Molloy       379     (CHSAA)     Guilderland                366
 11  Arlington               380     (01-A )     Mount Academy              379
 12  Frontier                394     (06-A )     Arlington                  388
 13  Washingtonville         412     (09-A )     Baldwinsville              436
 14  Beaver River            440     (03-D )     Washingtonville            456
 15  Pioneer                 443     (06-B )     Brooklyn Tech              456
 16  Shaker                  462     (02-A )     Manhasset                  467
 17  Ballston Spa            463     (02-A )     Frontier                   467
 18  Mount Academy           464     (09-B )     Ballston Spa               496
 19  Baldwinsville           470     (03-A )     Trinity                    497
 20  Brooklyn Tech           495     (PSAL )     Susan Wagner               504
 21  Susan Wagner            504     (PSAL )     Westhampton Beach          529
 22  Commack                 568     (11-A )     Pioneer/Holland            536
 23  Bethlehem               588     (02-A )     Commack                    548
 24  Manhasset               624     (08-B )     Shaker                     563
 25  Westhampton Beach       632     (11-B )     Bethlehem                  624
 26  Packer Collegiate       648     (AIS  )     Columbia                   704
 27  Westhill                667     (03-C )     Westhill                   715
 28  Columbia                684     (02-A )     Packer Colliegate          720
 29  Pleasantville           720     (01-C )     Pleasantville              739
 --                                              Archbishop Molloy          797

Pre-Race Analysis ... The numbers make Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite base on their record performance at the NY State Meet at Sunken Meadow.

Burnt Hills was 2nd in the NY State Meet Merge and is projected to get the second auto-qualifying spot for NXN ... The Top Five in the State Meet Merge were:
Fayetteville-Manlius - 34
Burnt Hills - 77
Smithtown - 157
Corning - 175
Shenendehowa - 192

The race for the 3rd and 4th-place spot looks competitive with Liverpool being an added factor.

Individual Race ... The top 38 overall speed-rated boys in NY are entered at NXN ... The top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN qualify for NXN Nationals ... The overall speed ratings below indicate a wide-open race ... Looks very competitive.

 
 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Shea Weilbaker        12   02-A    Saratoga               191    NXN Team
2   Tyler Berg            12   02-B    Burnt Hills            191    NXN Team
3   Parker Stokes         12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          189    NXN Individual
4   Geoff Howles          11   03-A    FM                     186    NXN Team
5   Ryan Guerci           12   01-B    Nanuet                 185    NXN Individual
6   Evan Brennan          12   02-B    Burnt Hills            185    NXN Team
7   Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 11   09-A    Warwick                184    NXN Individual
8   Sean Henretta         12   05-A    Fairport               184    NXN Individual
9   Aidan Gillooley       12   02-B    Burnt Hills            184    NXN Team
10  Colin Waters          12   01-A    Arlington              184    NXN Team
11  Sam Lawler            11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       183    NXN Individual
12  Garrett Brennan       12   03-A    FM                     182    NXN Team
13  Peyton Geehrer        10   03-A    FM                     181    NXN Team
14  Armani Merlino        12   06-A    Lancaster              181    NXN Individual
15  Sam Otis              11   03-A    FM                     181    NXN Team
16  Matthew Tripp         12   03-A    FM                     181    NXN Team
17  Jack Rosencrans       12   08-B    North Shore            181    NXN Individual
18  Bryce Derick          12   04-A    Corning                181    NXN Team
19  Abel Hagos            12   05-A    McQuaid                181    NXN Individual
20  Tobias Wolfson        11   AIS     Riverdale Country      180    NXN Individual
21  Nicholas DeFelice     12   11-A    Smithtown              180    NXN Team
22  Matt Rizzo            12   01-C    Bronxville             180    NXN Individual
23  Marty Dolan           12   02-A    Niskayuna              180    NXN Individual
24  Matthew Payamps       12   CHS     St. Anthonys           180    NXN Individual
25  Matt Cavaliere        12   02-A    Bethlehem              180    NXN Team
26  Josh Farmer           12   03-B    New Hartford           179    NXN Individual
27  Tom Appenheimer       12   CHS     Cardinal O'Hara        179    NXN Individual
28  Ryan Thompson         12   05-A    Irondequoit            179    NXN Individual
29  Sean Gardiner         12   01-C    Croton-Harmon          179    NXN Individual
30  RJ Pleasants          12   11-A    Hhh East               179    NXN Individual
31  Gabe Planty           11   04-C    Watkins Glen           179    NXN Individual
32  Torrey Jacobson-Evans 11   04-A    Corning                179    NXN Team
33  Daniel Shephard       11   01-A    North Rockland         178    NXN Individual
34  Nicholas Soldevere    12   02-A    Guilderland            178    NXN Team
35  Geordie Young         12   AIS     Trinity School         178    NXN Individual
36  Kal Lewis             11   11-D    Shelter Island         177    NXN Individual
37  Nathan Reeves         12   03-A    Liverpool              177    NXN Team
38  Ezra Ruggles          12   02-A    Saratoga               177    NXN Team
39  Thomas Cirrito        11   11-B    Miller Place           177      Not In NXN Entries
40  Sean Ryan             12   11-A    Northport              177    NXN Team
41  Nathan Lawson         12   04-A    Corning                177    NXN Team
42  Gabriel Cannavo       12   AIS     Poly Prep              177      Not In NXN Entries
43  Kevin Cawley          12   11-A    Smithtown              177    NXN Team
44  Brendan Dearie        12   CHS     St. Anthonys           177    NXN Individual
45  Evan Sherman          12   PSA     Brooklyn Tech          176    NXN Team

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Too Close to Call 
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Saratoga                 90     (02-A )     Saratoga                    63
 2   Liverpool                91     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius        65
 3   Fayetteville-Manlius     92     (03-A )     Liverpool                   91
 4   North Rockland          155     (01-A )     North Rockland             177
 5   Greenwich               175     (02-C )     Shenendehowa               212
 6   Shenendehowa            196     (02-A )     John Jay Cross River       227
 7   Niskayuna               201     (02-A )     Greenwich                  243
 8   Monroe-Woodbury         210     (09-A )     Niskayuna                  248
 9   John Jay CR             255     (01-B )     Ursuline                   260
 10  Bethlehem               310     (02-A )     Camden                     261
 11  East Aurora             320     (06-B )     Corning                    299
 12  Ursuline                324     (01-A )     Sachem East                307
 13  Tappan Zee              346     (01-B )     Tappan Zee                 312
 14  Sachem East             355     (11-A )     Monroe-Woodbury            313
 15  Corning                 356     (04-A )     Commack                    348
 16  Camden                  380     (03-B )     Bethlehem                  350
 17  Commack                 381     (11-A )     Baldwinsville              384
 18  Baldwinsville           420     (03-A )     Manhasset                  455
 19  Manhasset               430     (08-B )     Pleasantville              575
 20  Pleasantville           670     (01-C )
Pre-Race Analysis ... This is toss-up between Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga Springs and Liverpool ... All three teams win significant percentages of computer simulated races ... The two major factors determining team scores are (1) performance at the #4 and #5 scoring positions and (2) displacement of runners on the top three teams by runners from other teams ... This race contains some other very good teams that are capable of scoring decently, and runners from those teams will impact the scores of the top three teams above.

Saratoga is placed 1st above because they won the State Meet by one point over FM ... Liverpool has a slight scoring advantage over the other two teams based on performance at the #5 position, so they get projected 2nd ... and Fayetteville-Manlius is Fayetteville-Manlius, they win a lot (I will not be surprised if FM gets the job done again).

Individual Race ... The top 14 overall speed-rated girls in NY are entered at NXN ... Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel are the favorites entering this New York regional ... Claire Walters (FM) will likely get a bid to NXN (either with the FM team or as an individual) ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is a favorite to grab an individual qualifying spot ... Could be very competitive for the remaining individual spots (obviously depends on who gets qualifying team spots).

The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams.

 
 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Katelyn Tuohy         11   01-A    North Rockland         174    NXN Team
2   Kelsey Chmiel         12   02-A    Saratoga               162    NXN Team
3   Claire Walters        11   03-A    FM                     153    NXN Team
4   Brooke Rauber         10   03-D    Tully                  151    NXN Individual
5   Jenna Schulz          11   03-A    Liverpool              142    NXN Team
6   Sarah Connelly        11   11-B    Mount Sinai            142    NXN Individual
7   Olivia Morganti       11   03-B    CBA                    142    NXN Individual
8   Eva Borton            12   03-C    Clinton                138    NXN Individual
9   Sarah Trainor         11   09-A    FD Roosevelt           137    NXN Individual
10  Mary Hennelly         11   01-A    Suffern                137    NXN Individual
11  Ella Kurto            9    02-A    Saratoga               137    NXN Team
12  Mary Borkoski         12   01-B    Pearl River            134    NXN Individual
13  Faith Demars          11   02-A    Ballston Spa           133    NXN Individual
14  Elizabeth Lucason     9    03-B    Camden                 132    NXN Team
15  Roshni Singh          11   11-A    Bay Shore              132      Not In NXN Entries
16  Karrie Baloga         8    09-B    Cornwall               132      Not In NXN Entries
17  Madison Neuner        12   03-A    Liverpool              131    NXN Team
18  Madison Klein         12   04-A    Horseheads             130    NXN Individual
19  Haleigh Morales       11   01-A    North Rockland         128    NXN Team
20  Lexi Bernard          9    03-D    South Lewis            128    NXN Individual
21  Alexandra Thomas      12   01-B    Tappan Zee             128    NXN Team
22  Maggie Maier          11   CHS     Sacred Heart           128      Not In NXN Entries
23  Phoebe White          11   03-A    FM                     128    NXN Team
24  Brynne Wright         11   02-C    Greenwich              127    NXN Team
25  Sydney Nowicki        10   06-A    Lockport               127    NXN Individual
26  Lindsey Butler        12   04-A    Corning                126      Not In NXN Entries
27  Sierra Dinneen        11   CHS     Notre Dame             126      Not In NXN Entries
28  Gianna Capoccia       10   03-A    Rome                   125      Not In NXN Entries
29  Jordyn McDonnell      12   11-A    Sachem North           125      Not In NXN Entries
30  Grace Kaercher        10   03-A    FM                     125    NXN Team
31  Fiona McLoughlin      11   11-A    Commack                125    NXN Team
32  Sydney Carlson        10   03-A    Liverpool              125    NXN Team
33  Megan McLaughlin      9    06-B    East Aurora            125    NXN Team
34  Sarah Flynn           12   01-A    Ursuline               125    NXN Team
35  Kaleigh Higgins       8    02-A    Shaker                 125    NXN Individual
36  Teresa Deda           10   01-A    New Rochelle           125      Not In NXN Entries
37  Hannah Ielfield       10   03-D    South Lewis            125    NXN Individual
38  Madison Relyea        10   02-D    Mayfield               124    NXN Individual
39  Leoni Griffin         7    02-A    Shaker                 124      Not In NXN Entries