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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2018 - Projections & Preview 2018

 

Please remember: the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Projected Scores were posted on November 7, 2018 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 10, 2018

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 11, 2017

[ Girls projections ]

 

 Boys Class A  -  Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      42        Fayetteville-Manlius   25
  2   Smithtown            (11)      67        Corning                87
  3   Corning              (04)      99        Smithtown              91
  4   Shenendehowa         (02)     101        Shenendehowa          108
  5   Penfield             (05)     155        Arlington             133
  6   Frontier             (06)     156        Warwick Valley        149
  7   Arlington            (01)     159        Penfield              174
  8   Warwick Valley       (09)     164        Frontier              181
  9   East Meadow          (08)     206        East Meadow           199

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is a good quality team race ... Like many championship races, major factors in the outcome could be the course itself, the course conditions and the weather ... As I write this (on Wednesday), the weather on Saturday for the meet is expected to be clouds and sun, 47-50 deg temperature, and windy (14-22 mph with higher gusts) ... Friday weather prediction calls for occasional rain followed by a steady rain (heavy at times) on Friday night ... I have been told that rain (in the right amounts) can make the sandy portions of the Sunken Meadow course run a bit faster (the rain can pack down loose sandy areas to make the footing firmer), but too much rain could also make a mess ... so it remains to be seen.

Sunken Meadow is a challenging course ... the infamous "Cardiac Hill" has that name for a reason ... according to a local Long Island newspaper article (Shelter Island Reporter), "Hernia Hill" (aka Snake Hill) is also a factor ... and to quote the newspaper "Hernia is a quarter mile 80-foot climb. Cardiac is a half-mile 150-foot climb topped with a super steep incline to reach the summit. It strikes fear in some, but to have any success at the "Meadow," runners have one choice overcome Hernia, then conquer Cardiac" ... Sounds like fun.

Corning is the defending Class A champion ... Corning beat Fayetteville-Manlius by 2 points at last year's State Meet.

Fayetteville-Manlius enters the 2018 race as the favorite with Smithtown projected to be 2nd ... Smithtown has been racing very well and Sunken Meadow is the home course for Smithtown and the other Section 11 teams, so it might be an advantage for some Section 11 runners ... Fayetteville-Manlius has a clear lead over the other Class A teams based on seasonal speed ratings ... Smithtown is not that far behind, and should any of the normal Fayetteville-Manlius scorers falter, Smithtown is within reach.

Corning and Shenendehowa appear even-up at the 3rd team spot ... teams positions 5-8 are also even-up (computer simulations yield very mixed results).

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race ... Shea Weilbaker is the favorite to win ... But as can be seen from the overall seasonal speed ratings below, a bunch of guys are in contention for the next spots (remarkably close for so many runners).

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Shea Weilbaker        12   02-A    Saratoga               191
2   Sean Henretta         12   05-A    Fairport               183
3   Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 11   09-A    Warwick                182
4   Geoff Howles          11   03-A    FM                     182
5   Nicholas DeFelice     12   11-A    Smithtown              181
6   Abel Hagos            12   05-A    McQuaid                181
7   Matt Cavaliere        12   02-A    Bethlehem              181
8   Colin Waters          12   01-A    Arlington              181
9   Garrett Brennan       12   03-A    FM                     181
10  Marty Dolan           12   02-A    Niskayuna              180
11  RJ Pleasants          12   11-A    Hhh East               180
12  Armani Merlino        12   06-A    Lancaster              180
13  Peyton Geehrer        10   03-A    FM                     179
14  Sam Otis              11   03-A    FM                     179
15  Bryce Derick          12   04-A    Corning                178
16  Torrey Jacobson-Evans 11   04-A    Corning                178
17  Kevin Cawley          12   11-A    Smithtown              178
18  Daniel Shephard       11   01-A    North Rockland         178
19  Nicholas Soldevere    12   02-A    Guilderland            178 (not entered)
20  Ryan Thompson         12   05-A    Irondequoit            178
21  Alex Hislop           12   02-A    Shenendehowa           177
22  Ezra Ruggles          12   02-A    Saratoga               177
23  Nathan Lawson         12   04-A    Corning                177
24  Peter Kostarellis     12   05-A    Churchville            176
25  Ben Guerin            11   02-A    Ballston Spa           176 (not entered)
26  Nathan Reeves         12   03-A    Liverpool              175
27  Matthew Tripp         12   03-A    FM                     174

 

 Boys Class B  -  Burnt Hills the Odds-on favorite again
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      21        Burnt Hills            22
  2   Cornwall             (09)      89        Pearl River            96
  3   Pearl River          (01)      99        Cornwall               97
  4   Pioneer              (06)     114        Pioneer               102
  5   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)     151        Honeoye Falls-Lima    126
  6   Manhasset            (08)     171        Westhampton Beach     160
  7   Westhampton Beach    (11)     176        Manhasset             169
  8   Owego Free           (04)     188        Owego Free            171
  9   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     189        Jamesville Dewitt     174
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     224        Franklin Academy      272


Pre-Race Analysis ... Repeating from last year, Burnt Hills is one of the top ranked teams in the nation and the odds-on favorite to win the Class B race again ... I will be interested in seeing the Burnt Hills speed ratings as compared to their speed ratings from Saratoga Park (but Burnt Hills does not need to race all-out to win this race).

Individual Race ... This could be the top individual match-up of the day ... Tyler Berg (Burnt Hills) and Parker Stokes (Maine-Endwell) are both racing exceptionally well ... and a group of talented guys are not far behind the top two.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Tyler Berg            12   02-B    Burnt Hills            190
2   Parker Stokes         12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          189
3   Evan Brennan          12   02-B    Burnt Hills            186
4   Sam Lawler            11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       183
5   Aidan Gillooley       12   02-B    Burnt Hills            182
6   Ryan Guerci           12   01-B    Nanuet                 180
7   Jack Rosencrans       12   08-B    North Shore            179
8   Josh Farmer           12   03-B    New Hartford           178
9   Jason Linzer          11   08-B    Seaford                177
10  Thomas Cirrito        11   11-B    Miller Place           175
11  Andrew Perreault      12   06-B    Lewiston-Porter        175
12  Seth Bywater          12   09-B    Cornwall               173
13  Nick Berg             11   03-B    ESM                    172
14  Nick Hunziker         12   02-B    Burnt Hills            172
15  Antonio Beltran       12   02-B    Schalmont              172
16  Cameron McDaniel      12   05-B    Honeoye FL             171
17  Matt Laframboise      12   05-B    Greece Arcadia         170
18  Nicolas Paneto        12   09-B    Goshen                 170
19  Nicholas Andrews      12   05-B    Brockport              169
20  James Smith           11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       168
21  David Metacarpa       11   02-B    Burnt Hills            168
22  Jack Reynolds         12   01-B    Pearl River            168
23  Blaine Doyle          12   09-B    Cornwall               167
24  Nathan Bowers         12   04-B    Owego                  167
25  Patrick McCann        12   01-B    Pearl River            167

 

 Boys Class C  -  Saranac Lake a solid favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saranac Lake         (07)      38        Saranac Lake           31
  2   James I. O'Neill     (09)     108        Westhill               83
  3   Newfane              (06)     112        Irvington             118
  4   Irvington            (01)     113        Port Jefferson        119
  5   Westhill             (03)     120        Newfane               119
  6   Port Jefferson       (11)     157        James I. O'Neill      124
  7   LaSalle              (02)     163        LaSalle               171
  8   Addison              (05)     182        Windsor               173
  9   Windsor              (04)     183        Addison               229
  10  Oyster Bay           (08)     245        Oyster Bay            261
  11  Canton               (10)     262        Canton                309

  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Mount Academy won the Class C title last year, but they were moved up to Class B this year.

Saranac Lake has been racing very well this season and is a solid favorite to win this race ... The next four spots are very close and could go any way.

Individual Race ... A bunch of runners are in contention to win this race ... I think any of the top six from the list below could win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Matt Rizzo            12   01-C    Bronxville             179
2   Josh Stone            11   04-C    Windsor                177
3   Gabe Planty           11   04-C    Watkins Glen           177
4   Sean Gardiner         12   01-C    Croton-Harmon          176
5   Tyler Fauvelle        11   03-C    Adirondack             174
6   Alex Rizzo            12   01-C    Bronxville             173
7   Evan Ensslin          12   02-C    Voorheesville          169
8   Tony Njoga            12   09-C    James O'Neill          168
9   Nathan McNally        12   10-C    Ogdensburg             168
10  Riley Nash            11   03-C    CBA                    166
11  Satch Sumner-Waldman  12   09-C    Onteora                166
12  James Catania         10   07-C    Saranac Lake           166
13  Dan Washburn          12   03-C    Westhill               165
14  Anderson Gray         12   07-C    Saranac Lake           164
15  Aidan Lynch           11   01-C    Pleasantville          163
16  Henry Goca            12   02-C    Rensselaer-Doane       163
17  Peter Fogarty         10   07-C    Saranac Lake           163
18  Kyle Urban            8    06-C    Alden                  162
19  Caleb Bender          10   03-C    Skaneateles            161
20  Ben Leicht            12   01-C    North Salem            161
21  Bobby Adams           12   06-C    Alden                  161
22  Brett Russell         11   06-C    Springville            161
23  Ryan Lansing          11   03-C    Cooperstown            161 (not entered)
24  Austin Burkard        9    06-C    Newfane                160

 

 Boys Class D  -  Beaver River the favorite to repaet
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River         (03)      45        Beaver River           32
  2   Maple Grove          (06)      69        Maple Grove            87
  3   Oakfield-Elba        (05)      94        Delhi                 103
  4   Delhi                (04)      99        Oakfield-Elba         116
  5   Lake Placid          (07)     116        Shelter Island        117
  6   Shelter Island       (11)     150        Lake Placid           117
  7   Maple Hill           (02)     160        Norwood-Norfolk       167
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     165        Maple Hill            174
  9   Haldane              (01)     229        Haldane               203
  10  John A. Coleman      (09)     300        John A. Coleman       316
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the solid favorite to win the Class D race ... Beaver River handily won the Class D race last year with Maple Grove finishing 2nd.

Oakfield-Elba and Delhi are a toss-up to finish 3rd.

Individual Race ... Kal Lewis (Shelter Island) won the Class D last year and is running on the Section 11 home course, so I would make him a slight favorite to win ... But Colton Kempney has been racing very well and is an obvious serious challenger for the win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Colton Kempney        9    03-D    Beaver River           176
2   Kal Lewis             11   11-D    Shelter Island         174
3   Brandon Olden         12   02-D    North Warren           169
4   Peter Auer            11   06-D    Maple Grove            167
5   Gavin Bathgate        12   05-D    East Rochester         165
6   Cory Demo             10   03-D    Beaver River           165
7   Josiah Evan           11   03-D    Beaver River           164
8   Ronan Mcdonald        11   06-D    Randolph               164
9   Andrew Drescher       11   02-D    Duanesburg             163
10  Hans Matzal           12   03-D    Faith Heritage         162
11  Diego Aguirre         10   04-D    Delhi                  161
12  Zack Hall             10   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama       161
13  Kyle Mott             12   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama       161
14  Dylan Williams        11   03-D    Waterville             159
15  Jake Glicksman        11   07-D    Seton Catholic         158
16  Aiden Begeal          12   04-D    Trumansburg            158
17  Aidan Cutting         12   04-D    Unatego                157
18  Jack Rivet            11   03-D    Old Forge              157
19  Jacob Appleton        12   05-D    Lima Christian         157 (not entered)
20  Lucas Baker           12   04-D    Marathon               156
21  Derek McIntire        10   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama       154
22  Austin Carrick        11   05-D    Notre Dame-Batavia     154
23  Ty Saleman            11   04-D    Delhi                  153

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  Fayetteville-Manlius & Saratoga Toss-Up ??
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga             (02)      58        Saratoga               46
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      59        Fayetteville-Manlius   47
  3   North Rockland       (01)      80        North Rockland         86
  4   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     105        Monroe-Woodbury        94
  5   Corning              (04)     120        Corning               142
  6   Rush-Henrietta       (05)     150        Rush-Henrietta        153
  7   Sachem East          (11)     155        Sachem East           164
  8   West Seneca West     (06)     215        West Seneca West      224
  9   Syosset              (08)     228        Syosset               231

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... If I was forced to "bet the rent money", this race would be a handicapping nightmare ... Fayetteville-Manlius has won NXN Nationals 11 of the last 12 years, but FM is not as strong team-wise this season ... FM barely beat nationally ranked Liverpool at sectionals (by 1 point) on a cold muddy course at Chittenango ... neither team (FM or Liverpool) raced their best at sectionals ... So I'm rating Fayetteville-Manlius based on their prior seasonal speed ratings.

Saratoga presents a handicapping conundrum (confusing, difficult problem) ... Saratoga raced remarkable well at sectionals ... their speed ratings were 158, 136, 123, 122, 114, 107, 104 ... These speed ratings make them a national contender and a solid favorite to win this race ..... The problem is this - with the exception of top runner Kelsey Chmiel, those ratings are much higher overall than previous seasonal ratings ... The Saratoga league meet (Suburban Council) was cancelled the week before sectionals due to weather, and it would have been nice to have two sets of recent speed ratings for comparison ..... Also in recent years, Saratoga has achieved noticeably higher speed ratings at their home course of Saratoga Park compared to other venues ... So relating their sectional speed ratings to Sunken Meadow requires guessing.

Another unknown in this race involves North Rockland ... Top national runner Katelyn Tuohy did not race at Section 1 sectionals due to an injury (knee tendonitis), but she is entered to race at States (according to the first entry list posted by Leone Timing) ... If she races or does not race obviously effects the team score of North Rockland ... The projected scores posted above assumes she races ... If she does not race, the North Rockland score would be about even with Monroe-Woodbury.

This web-site is based on speed ratings, so that's the major factor here in projecting team placement ... and Saratoga has slightly better speed ratings based on sectionals compared to FM ... Therefore, I initially decided to place Saratoga as the projected winner ... I got to thinking about Fayetteville-Manlius and their ability to win when it counts, so I was going to place FM the projected winner ... I finally decided to apply the scientific approach, so I flipped a coin ten times and Saratoga won 7 flips (Saratoga is projected to win above).

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a great race in terms of quality ... Katelyn Tuohy (North Rockland) and Kelsey Chmiel (Saratoga) are currently the top two runners in the nation, and Claire Walters (FM) is also highly ranked nationally ... 25 runners have an overall speed rating of 125 or higher ... As noted above, Katelyn Tuohy is entered, but I wonder if she will race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Katelyn Tuohy         11   01-A    North Rockland         175
2   Kelsey Chmiel         12   02-A    Saratoga               160
3   Claire Walters        11   03-A    FM                     149
4   Jenna Schulz          11   03-A    Liverpool              142
5   Mary Hennelly         11   01-A    Suffern                138
6   Sarah Trainor         11   09-A    FD Roosevelt           136
7   Ella Kurto            9    02-A    Saratoga               134
8   Faith Demars          11   02-A    Ballston Spa           134
9   Madison Neuner        12   03-A    Liverpool              133
10  Roshni Singh          11   11-A    Bay Shore              132
11  Madison Klein         12   04-A    Horseheads             130
12  Lindsey Butler        12   04-A    Corning                128
13  Fiona McLoughlin      11   11-A    Commack                128
14  Sydney Nowicki        10   06-A    Lockport               127
15  Sarah Flynn           12   01-A    Ursuline               127
16  Haleigh Morales       11   01-A    North Rockland         127
17  Grace Kaercher        10   03-A    FM                     127
18  Gianna Capoccia       10   03-A    Rome                   126
19  Kaleigh Higgins       8    02-A    Shaker                 126
20  Jordyn McDonnell      12   11-A    Sachem North           125
21  Sydney Carlson        10   03-A    Liverpool              125 (not entered)
22  Leoni Griffin         7    02-A    Shaker                 125 
23  Justus Holden-Betts   12   03-A    Baldwinsville          125
24  Teresa Deda           10   01-A    New Rochelle           125 (not entered)
25  Liyat Kebbede         9    02-A    Niskayuna              125
26  Phoebe White          11   03-A    FM                     124

 

 Girls Class B  -  Cornwall favored to win
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Cornwall             (09)      66        Cornwall               62
  2   John Jay Cross River (01)      89        John Jay Cross River   68
  3   East Aurora          (06)      90        CBA-Syracuse           78
  4   CBA-Syracuse         (03)      91        Burnt Hills            97
  5   Burnt Hills          (02)      92        Pittsford Mendon      112
  6   Pittsford Mendon     (05)     123        East Aurora           130
  7   South Side           (08)     153        South Side            165
  8   Kings Park           (11)     208        Kings Park            193
  9   Maine-Endwell        (04)     237        Maine-Endwell         231
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     305        Franklin Academy      313

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... John Jay Cross River is the defending Class B champion, but Cornwall is the morning-line favorite in this race.

Positions 2 through 5 were a toss-up in computer simulations ... East Aurora was 2nd at States last year ... CBA-Syracuse was the Class C State Champion last year, but since they were a private school who won a State title, they were moved up in class this season.

Individual Race ... Olivia Morganti is the top-rated Class B runner entering this race ...she was in one of the later races at sectionals last week and was forced to run through sections of the Chittenango course that were ankle-deep in mud (described as similar to Portland Meadows NXN at its worst) ... Sarah Connelly is very talented and running on the Section 11 home course at Sunken Meadow ... Mary Borkoski, Elizabeth Lucason and Karrie Baloga are definite contenders.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Olivia Morganti       11   03-B    CBA                    141
2   Sarah Connelly        11   11-B    Mount Sinai            139
3   Mary Borkoski         12   01-B    Pearl River            134
4   Elizabeth Lucason     9    03-B    Camden                 133
5   Karrie Baloga         8    09-B    Cornwall               132
6   Alexandra Thomas      12   01-B    Tappan Zee             128
7   Megan McLaughlin      9    06-B    East Aurora            126
8   Deja Scripa-Jones     10   03-B    CBA                    122
9   Kayla Schramm         9    09-B    Goshen                 121
10  Rory Graham           12   02-B    Burnt Hills            121
11  Kaitlyn Chandrika     10   11-B    Mount Sinai            118
12  Kirsi Rajagopal       12   01-B    Harrison               117 (not entered)
13  Sarah Grodin          12   09-B    Monticello             116
14  Una Boylan            9    01-B    Pearl River            115
15  Kate Sherman          10   02-B    Mohonasen              115
16  Tori Fears            12   01-B    Tappan Zee             115
17  Karis Ertel           11   06-B    East Aurora            114
18  Kelsey Crawford       10   01-B    John Jay CR            114
19  Olivia Duca           10   08-B    South Side             114
20  Carly Woelfel         11   08-B    South Side             113
21  Emily Berg            9    02-B    Burnt Hills            113
22  Meredith Hickman      12   09-B    Cornwall               113
23  Kaylee Lacreta        10   03-B    New Hartford           112 (not entered)
24  Chloe Hanson          12   09-B    Saugerties             112

 

 Girls Class C  - Greenwich Odds-on favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      33        Greenwich              38
  2   Bronxville           (01)     130        Bronxville            105
  3   Saranac              (07)     133        Clinton               117
  4   Newfane              (06)     137        Newfane               140
  5   Lansing              (04)     140        Mattituck             150
  6   Clinton              (03)     145        Lansing               151
  7   Waterloo             (05)     154        Waterloo              170
  8   Canton               (10)     155        Saranac               180
  9   Mattituck            (11)     183        Canton                186
  10  James I. O'Neill     (09)     208        James I. O'Neill      193
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)     262        Oyster Bay            238
 
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA-Syracuse won this race last year, but were moved up to Class B this season ... Greenwich finished 2nd in Class D last year, and moved up to Class C this season due to enrollment numbers.

Greenwich has been racing very well this season and is the odds-on favorite to win.

Team positions 2 through 8 are quite close ... simulations are all over the place within that range ... Bronxville typically finishes well at States ... It's a guessing games to pick the positions for the most part.

Individual Race ... Eva Borton (Clinton) enters the race as the top-rated Class C runner ... Greenwich has four girls in the top nine in the list below.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Eva Borton            12   03-C    Clinton                132
2   Brynne Wright         11   02-C    Greenwich              127
3   Nina Sgambelluri      9    02-C    Greenwich              125
4   Rachael Woodruff      11   07-C    Saranac                124
5   Delaney Brewer        11   03-C    VVS                    117
6   Ava Jolley            10   01-C    North Salem            117
7   Emma Cronin           11   02-C    Greenwich              114
8   Kimberly Goerss       12   06-C    Newfane                113
9   Teagan Wright         8    02-C    Greenwich              111
10  Tess Fitzmaurice      10   02-C    Greenville             111
11  Roxana Reisch         11   05-C    Harley-Allendale       110
12  Catie Eisenhut        11   04-C    Lansing                110
13  Marissa Silba         12   04-C    Newark Valley          109
14  Ava Vaccarella        8    11-C    Mattituck              108
15  Joddie Decker         10   05-C    Penn Yan               108
16  Lily Potthast         11   07-C    Ausable Valley         107
17  Emily Brown           11   06-C    Fredonia               107
18  Emily Miller          11   04-C    Dryden                 105
19  Arianna Whittaker     11   10-C    Canton                 104
20  Emmaline Jackson      10   04-C    Lansing                104
21  Natalie Weiner        12   01-C    Bronxville             104

 

 Girls Class D  -  Maple Grove and Tully Even-Up
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      50        Tully                  45
  2   Tully                (03)      51        Maple Grove            50
  3   Delhi                (04)      75        Delhi                  76
  4   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)      99        Norwood-Norfolk        90
  5   Duanesburg           (02)     101        Duanesburg            103
  6   Lake Placid          (07)     136        Lake Placid           139
  7   Red Creek            (05)     158        Red Creek             193
  8   Eldred               (09)     241        Eldred                226
  9   Shelter Island       (11)     259        Shelter Island        241


		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Maple Grove finished a close 3rd at States last year (Greenwich, who was 2nd, moved to Class C this season).

Tully edged defending Class D champion South Lewis by 1 point at sectionals ... Maple Grove and Tully are virtually even-up in computer simulations ... This is one of those races where every place does matter ... displacement by runners from other teams could be the deciding factor.

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the odds-on favorite entering the Class D race (she won the last two years) ... Lexi Bernard (South Lewis) has been improving (had an estimated speed rating of 129 at sectionals)

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Brooke Rauber         10   03-D    Tully                  149
2   Hannah Ielfield       10   03-D    South Lewis            127
3   Madison Relyea        10   02-D    Mayfield               125
4   Lexi Bernard          9    03-D    South Lewis            122
5   Ava Crist             10   06-D    Maple Grove            118
6   Elaine Atanasova      12   02-D    Duanesburg             118
7   Kylee Odell           11   06-D    Clymer-Sherman         118
8   Christina Peppy       10   06-D    Maple Grove            116
9   Jade Dening           10   03-D    Remsen                 113
10  Alyssa Walker         11   04-D    Elmira Notre Dame      111
11  Madelyn Dinneen       9    10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        108
12  Brynn Bernard         7    03-D    South Lewis            106
13  Emily Rudolph         11   03-D    Old Forge              106
14  Kelsey Young          11   04-D    Deposit-Hancock        106
15  Sienna Dorr           9    04-D    Delhi                  105
16  Alexa Wolcott         9    05-D    Pavilion/York          103
17  Lily Czub             8    02-D    Hoosic Valley          103
18  Taylor Moore          12   03-D    Beaver River           103 (not entered)
19  Rylee Campeau         12   03-D    Beaver River           102 (not entered)
20  Brynne Myers          12   03-D    Remsen                 100 (not entered)
21  Carolyn Burnell       12   02-D    Hoosic Valley          100 (not entered)
22  Angelina Pusateri     8    02-D    Maple Hill             100
23  Abby Brunenvas        9    06-D    Maple Grove            99
24  Michelle Puzulis      10   02-D    Berne-Knox-West        99
25  Jen Skeeter           12   02-D    Duanesburg             97