.Post Date ... August 22, 2018 (Bill Meylan)
New Runner to Watch - Abby Vanderkooi (Michigan)
On the MileSplit Live Show (August 21, 2018), it was noted that a freshman girl from Michigan (Abby Vanderkooi) won an early season XC 5K invitational in fast time (17:05.1 on Aug 20th) ... I had not seen that performance before, but it certainly got my attention ... and the following morning, I got some e-mail requests to speed rate the race.
I typically dismiss absolute XC times unless I know the course and its historical speed ... I want to know how fast runners run relative to each other which is the concept of speed rating.
However, 17:05.1 is an excellent time for a 5K on the track (or XC course) for a high school girl ... assuming the distance is a full 5K.
The XC race in question is the Orchard View Cardinal
Invitational (Aug 20, 2018) at Orchard View HS in Muskegon, Michigan ...
I have no previous data for the race or race course ... and that
complicates making an accurate speed rating ... In addition, I have relatively
limited to no data on many individual Michigan runners ... the Michigan High
School Athletic Association makes it difficult for Michigan teams to compete
post-season, and that does lower my interest in speed rating many Michigan races.
Another complication in speed rating this race -> It is an
early season race ... and early season races can be problematic for speed rating
because some teams use these races simply for training (not trying to run fast)
and many runners are not "fit" this early in the season ... this complicates
profile matching with different races ... so subjective "guessing" comes into
play
.
Since I knew nothing about Abby Vanderkooi, my initial step was to look for her existing race performances ... and these are very limited via a quick search ... I did find these two 5K road races:
|
Abby Vanderkooi (photo courtesy Grand Haven Tribune) |
Chris Cook Memorial Run 5K (July 21,
2018), Fremont, MI ...Abby Vanderkooi - 17:26.0 (Top female overall), top boy was 17:20 Frostbite 5K (Feb 3, 2018), Fremont, MI ...Abby Vanderkooi - 17:20.0 (Top female overall, and 2nd overall) Abby Vanderkooi currently attends the Muskegon Western Michigan Christian School in Muskegon, Michigan ... It is a Division 4 School in Michigan.
|
These appear to be impressive road race performances by a 13-year old girl ... So what was her speed rating at the XC invitational??
My estimated speed ratings for the race are listed below ... My "Best Guess" is that Abby Vanderkooi's speed rating was 152 ... It may be a bit too high or it may somewhat low ... It is uncertain, but clearly it is a high speed rating ... She won by 2:43, but more importantly for my relative comparisons, she would have finished 3rd in the boy's race (based on time).
How I made the Guess ... The results below include the speed ratings from my database for each runner from last year ... I have only partial ratings results from last year for most Michigan runners, but these are helpful to guess "ball-park" speed ratings ... I also factored in guesses for early season races and attempted to profile this race with similar early season races from New York ... Big margin of error, but OK for an initial guess.
Later races against runners of known quality will determine a better evaluation for Abby Vanderkooi ... But right now I believe she is very good and at an elite level.
Orchard View Cardinal Invitational Michigan ... Aug 20, 2018 - Orchard View HS - Muskegon, MI ... http://mi.milesplit.com/meets/327368/results/599599/formatted *************************************************************** Note - The Ratings Last Year are the seasonal speed ratings in my database from last (none are for this race last year) *************************************************************** ESTIMATED Ratings Girls Varsity Speed Rating Last Year ------------ ========= 1 Abby Vanderkooi 9 Muskegon Western Michigan Chr 17:05.10 152.30 152 --- ******* 2 Elizabeth Penrice 12 Spring Lake 19:48.00 98.00 98 87 75 80 3 Isabella Lindsay 11 North Muskegon 20:30.66 83.78 84 115 4 Kendall Jones 11 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 20:48.08 77.97 78 --- 5 Gillian Fiene 11 Holland Christian 20:59.52 74.16 74 --- 6 Michelle Kuipers 11 Holland Christian 20:59.69 74.10 74 105 99 7 Megan Demeester 12 Holland Christian 20:59.94 74.02 74 87 94 8 Allie Baker 9 Spring Lake 21:03.40 72.87 73 --- 9 Chloe Lohman 10 Spring Lake 21:05.00 72.33 72 85 10 Anna Fedewa 11 Spring Lake 21:26.25 65.25 65 --- 11 Sarah Vanderkooi 12 Muskegon Western Michigan Chr 21:28.53 64.49 64 --- 12 Maggie Cooper 11 Spring Lake 21:29.80 64.07 64 94 72 75 13 Jaynie Seylhower 10 Spring Lake 21:32.52 63.16 63 --- 14 Lizzy Bruxvoort 12 Holland Christian 21:39.24 60.92 61 95 57 15 Alayna Babcock 10 East Kentwood 21:41.51 60.16 60 77 16 Emily Unger 12 Montague 21:42.84 59.72 60 98 17 Solana Witham 12 Whitehall 21:49.60 57.47 57 93 49 18 Josie Aardema 12 Muskegon Western Michigan Chr 21:50.17 57.28 57 100 19 Samantha Huizen 10 Sparta 22:01.02 53.66 54 --- 20 Raegan Lockhart 12 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 22:01.57 53.48 53 --- 21 Skye Thompson 10 Holland Christian 22:06.51 51.83 52 72 52 22 Jillian Dokter 12 Holland Christian 22:09.09 50.97 51 --- 23 Faith Clark 11 Fruitport 22:11.11 50.30 50 75 67 24 Emma Kern 9 Holland Christian 22:16.87 48.38 48 --- 25 Ryann Jibson 9 Whitehall 22:17.24 48.25 48 --- 26 Noelle Fink 11 Manistee 22:20.76 47.08 47 90 61 27 Kate Gilchrist 12 Spring Lake 22:22.84 46.39 46 94 79 55 28 Alaina Dokter 9 Holland Christian 22:23.46 46.18 46 --- 29 Eva Tilton 11 Spring Lake 22:27.70 44.77 45 88 72 30 Maddie Bennett 10 Sparta 22:34.44 42.52 43 --- 31 Maggie Holmes 11 Spring Lake 22:46.89 38.37 38 61 32 Isabelle Uganski 11 Whitehall 23:01.37 33.54 34 --- 33 Claire Van Duinen 9 Holland Christian 23:08.06 31.31 31 --- 34 Alydia Jura 10 Whitehall 23:09.58 30.81 31 64 ESTIMATED Ratings Boys Varsity Speed Rating Last Year ------------ ========= 1 Sam Baustert 12 Whitehall 16:27.44 164.85 165 146 2 Andrew Hylen 12 Spring Lake 16:48.91 157.70 158 174 162 172 3 Tommee Smith 12 Sparta 17:07.95 151.35 151 153 4 Ben Hylen 12 Spring Lake 17:10.17 150.61 151 164 150 165 5 Cole Jensen 12 Montague 17:10.35 150.55 151 --- 6 Jack Zuidema 12 Muskegon Western Michigan Chr 17:12.76 149.75 150 --- 7 Brendan Deneen 12 Fruitport 17:12.99 149.67 150 161 152 8 Evan Hodson 12 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 17:16.80 148.40 148 161 9 Eli Rotman 12 Muskegon Western Michigan Chr 17:22.55 146.48 146 --- 10 Zach Ostoin 12 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 17:32.60 143.13 143 --- 11 Matthew Semon 12 East Kentwood 17:37.46 141.51 142 152 142 147 12 Jon Wildey 11 Fruitport 17:45.18 138.94 139 135 13 Nick Walters 10 Jenison 17:46.58 138.47 138 --- 14 Callen Carrier 10 Spring Lake 17:50.30 137.23 137 111 15 Jacob Deboer 11 Holland Christian 17:50.60 137.13 137 132 16 Alex Mitchell 11 Holland Christian 17:50.76 137.08 137 --- 17 Hayden Cook 10 Sparta 17:53.77 136.08 136 --- 18 Brett Schlaff 10 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 17:57.07 134.98 135 --- 19 Ethan Oudbier 12 Sparta 17:58.40 134.53 135 --- 20 Ian Hill 9 Spring Lake 17:58.94 134.35 134 --- 21 Adam Wolffis 11 Montague 18:05.56 132.15 132 --- 22 Chase Mendham 12 Coopersville 18:11.12 130.29 130 --- 23 Klay Grant 9 Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 18:18.58 127.81 128 --- 24 Brendan Volkers 11 Sparta 18:22.64 126.45 126 --- 25 Matthew Vanderwall 12 Spring Lake 18:25.42 125.53 126 150 141 137 26 Parker Reynolds 12 North Muskegon 18:30.90 123.70 124 --- 27 Max Zuber 12 Jenison 18:33.99 122.67 123 134 28 Addison Bluhm 10 Whitehall 18:34.79 122.40 122 148 136 |
