Foot Locker Speed Rating Preview 2018

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Foot Locker 2018 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating for betting purposes (a "morning-line" or "seed-time" of sorts)
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Foot Locker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... All Available Ratings - other speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

General Comment ... I suspect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be higher than those shown in table above (that's typically the case) ... To finish in top places at Foot Locker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top national competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (often season-best performances).

Eight underclassmen from last year's Foot Locker return this year ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

Returning Foot Locker Runners & Speed Rating from 2017:

                   Place  Speed Rating
Graydon Morris   -   2     197
Jake Renfree     -   5     192
Carter Cheeseman -   6     191
Drew Bosley      -   7     191
Devin Hart       -  10     190
Kashon Harrison  -  14     188
Lucas Aramburu   -  38     171
Camren Fischer   -  40     160

Ten runners in this year's Foot Locker field competed at NXN Nationals 2018:

                   Place  Speed Rating
Cole Hocker          2     200  (best ever)
Josh Methner        15     195  (best ever)
Ares Reading        17     194  (best ever)
Jack Stanley        19     193  (best is 194)
Evan Bishop         20     193  (best ever)
Drew Bosley         23     192  (best is 193)
Carter Cheeseman    27     190  (best is 191)
Ethan Kern          28     190  (best is 190.3)
Camren Fischer      55     184  (best is 191)
Cruz Gomez          65     182  (best is 191)

The Top Speed Ratings at NXN Nationals 2018 were:

                   Place  Speed Rating
ANDERSON, Liam      1      201  (best ever)
HOCKER, Cole        2      200  (best ever)
SPROUT, Cole        3      199  (best ever)
YOUNG, Nico         4      198  (best ever)
ALLRED, Easton      5      198  (best ever)
VANCIL, Austin      6      197  (best ever)
MAIER, Alex         7      197  (season best)
STRANGIO, Matt      8      197  (best ever)
GORGAS, Corey       9      196  (best ever)
OHLSON, Connor      10     196  (best ever)

Nine of the the top ten runners at NXN 2018 set speed rating PRs.

Some Individual Runner Comments

Cole Hocker ... the morning-line favorite to win Foot Locker 2018 ... he was undefeated entering NXN Nationals and finished an excellent 2nd despite being affected by a cold virus (said in a post-NXN interview that he was about 90%, but the cold didn't bother him that much during the race) ... The closest finisher to Cole Hocker at NXN who is running Foot Locker is Josh Methner.

Devin Hart ... won the New Jersey Meet of champions in a tight race with Jack Stanley ... I believe Devin Hart has been pointing towards a big performance at Foot Locker.

Josh Methner ... set a very nice speed rating PR at NXN Nationals (195) ... has raced very well in the post-season.

Jack Stanley ... won Foot Locker Northeast impressively ... was invited to compete at NXN Nationals as an At-Large selection and race well at NXN.

Drew Bosley ... one of the top ranked runners nationally all season ... a returning runner from Foot Locker 2017 who could challenge for the top spot.

Graydon Morris ... the top returning runner from Foot Locker 2017 where he finished an outstanding 2nd (197 speed rating) ... entering Foot Locker last year, Graydon Morris had no speed ratings in the 190s (and that's the case again this year) ... But history has a way of repeating itself, so Graydon Morris could have a big performance.

Colin Baker ... popped a big 196 speed rating in winning the South Carolina State Meet, so the capability of a big performance has been demonstrated.

Ares Reading and Evan Bishop ... good PR speed rating performances at NXN ... Evan Bishop was selected to NXN as an At-Large Individual

 ... 34 of the 40 Boys entered Foot Locker 2018 have at least one speed rating of 190 or higher this season ... and that makes the race competitive and interesting ... NXN Nationals had 204 Boys entered with 41 having at least one speed rating of 190 or higher ... This makes Foot Locker and NXN the two highest quality races in US by far ... I need to see the results of Foot Locker before deciding which of the two meets is strongest overall ... NXN surprised me a bit with the number of high speed ratings attained, and I hope Foot Locker will do the same.

General Comments

Ten underclassmen return this year from last year's Foot Locker ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

Returning Foot Locker Runners & Speed Rating from 2017:

                    Place   Speed Rating
Katelynne Hart     -   2     159
Emily Covert       -   9     146
Adelyn Ackley      -  10     146
Adoette Vaughan    -  11     145
Marlee Starliper   -  13     145
Alyssa Hendrix     -  18     138
Ericka VanderLende -  25     133
Abby Loveys        -  33     126
Taryn Parks        -  36     124
Heidi Nielson      -  38     112

Eleven runners in this year's Foot Locker field competed at NXN Nationals 2018:

                    Place   Speed Rating
Taylor Ewert           3     158  (best ever)
Emily Covert           4     157  (best ever)
Alex Morris            7     152  (..best is 152.2)
Ericka VanderLende     8     151  (..best is 155)
Katelynne Hart        16     150  (..best is 153)
Allison Wilson        17     149  (..best is 151)
Heidi Nielson         26     146  (..best is 149)
Riley Stewart         37     142  (best ever)
Grace Ping            48     139  (..season best is 148)
London Culbreath      49     139  (..best is 154)
Brynn Brown           50     138  (..best is 150)

Interestingly, only three of the 11 girls who raced at NXN had speed rating PRs ... the conditions were actually decent for the Glendoveer course ... Maybe some of the girls will like San Diego conditions better.

The Top Speed Ratings at NXN National 2018 were:

                    Place  Speed Rating
TUOHY, Katelyn       1      167  (best is 177)
CHMIEL, Kelsey       2      162  (best is 163)
EWERT, Taylor        3      158  (best ever)
COVERT, Emily        4      157  (best ever)
WALTERS, Claire      5      156  (tied best ever)
RAUBER, Brooke       6      154  (best ever)
MORRIS, Alexis       7      152  (best is 152.2)
VANDERLENDE, Ericka  8      151  (best is 155)
GEDDES, Mattie       9      151  (best ever)
ARCHER, Abi          10     151  (best ever)

Selected Individual Runners

Sydney Masciarelli ... Sydney Masciarelli is the unknown factor in this race ... she enters the race with the highest speed rating of all runners (161) which makes her the favorite ... she won Foot Locker Northeast by pulling away from Marlee Starliper and Grace Connolly in the final 800 meters ... The "unknown factor" occurs because Sydney Masciarelli attends a prep school in Connecticut (Marianapolis Prep) that does not compete against public high schools ... also, this is her first season of cross country ... She plays basketball in the winter and she is relatively tall for a cross country runner (5'10") ... Everything she has done to date indicates she is exceptionally talented in XC and track.

I've had several inquiries asking me "How good is Sydney Masciarelli?" ... My answer, "She is obviously very good, but I do not know the extent" ... Actually, I don't think she or her coaches know the extent until she gets tested in competition.

Might have been interesting had Katelyn Tuohy been running Foot Locker ... Through most of the XC season Katelyn Tuohy was at another level compared to high school runners, but her knee injury situation slowed her down a bit ... Katelyn was not 100% at NXN and at a level that could make her vulnerable to an exceptional talent ... Based on what I've seen, Sydney Masciarelli "might" be at a mid-160 speed rating level, but that's a supposition.

Based on Foot Locker Northeast, her running style seems to be to stay with the competition and make a move with 1K or 800 meters to go ... Marlee Starliper pushed the pace at Foot Locker Northeast (don't know what she'll do at Nationals) ... And with the absence of Claudia Lane, I don't see anybody setting a really fast early pace.

Concerning the race strategy overall ... I'm expecting a pack of girls to be at the front for much of the race with somebody making a move past the mid-point ... The pack could include Sydney Masciarelli, Marlee Starliper, Taylor Ewert, Emily Covert, Grace Connolly, Ericka Vanderlende, Katelynne Hart, Abby Vanderkooi, London Culbreath and others ... Could be a very interesting race.

Marlee Starliper ... Marlee Starliper has been improving throughout the season and enters Foot Locker Nationals with an opportunity to win ... her best performance came at Foot Locker Northeast.

Taylor Ewert ... Taylor Ewert has proven that top-level race-walkers can excel at cross country ... The 2010 Foot Locker Champion was Aisling Cuffe of New York (the last girl to break 17:00 at the Balboa Park course), and Aisling Cuffe was an indoor race-walker of her freshmen year in high school before turning to running ... Taylor Ewert was 3rd at NXN and is a real contender to win Foot Locker.

Emily Covert ... Emily Covert has been super consistent at a high level all season ... won Foot Locker Midwest over some top runners on a muddy course and performed well at NXN ... a real contender for a top spot.

Grace Connolly ... Grace Connolly has speed ratings of 151 to 158 this season and that make her a strong contender in this race.

Katelynne Hart ... Katelynne Hart entered last year's Foot Locker Nationals with a speed rating PR of 153 (same as this year's season best) and then popped a big 159 speed rating to finish 2nd (had a good battle for 2nd with Olivia Theis which probably helped) ... Suggests to me that she likes the Foot Locker course at Balboa Park and is definitely a factor in this race.

Abby Vanderkooi ... the freshman has raced exceptionally well in Michigan this season and finished 4th on the muddy Foot Locker Midwest course ... could be a surprise at the Balboa course.

London Culbreath ... London Culbreath is an exceptional talent, but has not fared well at NXN Nationals in recent years ... A switch to Foot Locker and San Diego could be the recipe for a top performance.

Kristin Fahy ... qualified for NXN from the California State Meet, but decided to run Foot Locker instead ... won Foot Locker West ... Kristin Fahy competes in the San Diego Section of California and is very familiar with Balboa Park ... capable of a contending performance.

 ... 15 of the 40 Girls entered Foot Locker 2018 have at least one speed rating of 150 or higher this season ... NXN Nationals had 203 Girls entered with 14 having at least one speed rating of 150 or higher ... This makes Foot Locker and NXN the two highest quality races in US by far ... I need to see the results of Foot Locker before deciding which of the two meets is strongest overall ... NXN did have Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel ... But Foot Locker has top runners that turned down NXN At-Large invitations (Sydney Masciarelli, Marlee Starliper, Grace Connolly and Abby Vanderkooi).

This could be a a really good competitive race!