November 1, 2017 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2017 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 1, 2017 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2016
... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2016
Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on Favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 15 Fayetteville-Manlius 15 2 Baldwinsville 62 Baldwinsville 55 3 Liverpool 84 Liverpool 93 4 Cicero-North Syracuse 90 West Genesee 118 5 West Genesee 105 Cicero-North Syracuse 119 6 Central Square 184 Rome Free Academy 179 7 Rome Free Academy 186 Central Square 198 8 Auburn 238 Auburn 230 9 Syracuse West 257 Syracuse West 272 10 Proctor 315 Syracuse East 324 11 Syracuse East 341 Proctor 334 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool, Baldwinsville and CNS at the SCAC League Meet by 15-58-101-117 ... Fayetteville-Manlius could score a perfect 15 point in this sectional championship race, but a bunch of runners from different teams are in contention to finish in the top five. Individual Race ... The top guys are listed below ... I expect somebody from FM will win. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Ben Otis 12 03-A FM 181 2 Geoff Howles 10 03-A FM 180 3 Sam Otis 11 03-A FM 171 4 Jack Duncanson 12 03-A FM 170 5 Peyton Geehrer 9 03-A FM 168 6 Sean Byrnes 12 03-A West Genesee 167 7 Nathan Reeves 11 03-A Liverpool 166 8 Matt Bartolotta 10 03-A West Genesee 165 9 Matthew Tripp 11 03-A FM 165 10 Garrett Vannatta 11 03-A Baldwinsville 165 11 Nathan Poirier 11 03-A CNS 164 12 Benjamin Timmons 12 03-A Baldwinsville 164 13 Adam Davis 11 03-A Baldwinsville 163 14 Joe Licameli 11 03-A Baldwinsville 161 15 Tj Praschunus 11 03-A Liverpool 160 16 Sam Barber 12 03-A CNS 157 17 Gabe Chisari 11 03-A Central Square 157 18 David Ware 12 03-A CNS 156 19 Brandon Martin 11 03-A CNS 156 20 John Perperian 12 03-A CNS 155 |
Boys Class B - New Hartford a slight favorite over Jamesville Dewitt |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== =================== ===== 1 New Hartford 78 Westhill 86 2 Jamesville Dewitt 87 New Hartford 94 3 Chittenango 117 Jamesville-Dewitt 107 4 East Syracuse-Minoa 134 East Syracuse-Minoa 130 5 Homer 144 Chittenango 131 6 Westhill 145 Homer 144 7 Camden 206 Cortland 181 8 Cortland 220 Camden 195 9 Mexico 226 Oswego 254 10 Oswego 283 Mexico 281 11 Fulton 297 Whitesboro 283 12 Whitesboro 322 Fulton 307 13 Watertown 340 Watertown 337 14 Central Valley 358 Central Valley 391 15 Carthage 360 Carthage 391 16 Indian River 401 Indian River 422 17 Oneida 547 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford is the defending Class B champion ... New Hartford was the top team in the merge at the recent Bernard-Adirondack Invitational and enters this race as a slight favorite over Jamesville Dewitt. Jamesville Dewitt finish 6th at the SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, etc) ... Chittenango won the OHSL Liberty Championship. Individual Race ...Josh Farmer is the favorite to repeat as the Class B champion ... Grant Stokoe, Nick Berg and Andy Ryan are favorites to qualify as individuals to States (top 5 individuals not on the winning team qualify). |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Josh Farmer 11 03-B New Hartford 178 2 Grant Stokoe 12 03-B Homer 168 3 Nick Berg 10 03-B ESM 163 4 Andy Ryan 11 03-B Cortland 162 5 Teddy Mercer 11 03-B Homer 159 6 Kaleel Boykins 10 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 158 7 Tim Cook 12 03-B Camden 157 8 Garrett Jones 12 03-B New Hartford 156 9 Jason Green 10 03-B New Hartford 155 10 Andrew Swenson 12 03-B Homer 155 11 Brendan Rewakowski 11 03-B Westhill 154 12 Nolan Byrd 10 03-B ESM 153 13 Ersilio Cerminaro 11 03-B Chittenango 153 14 Karl Farber 12 03-B Chittenango 152 15 Tyler Stevens 11 03-B Cortland 150 |
Boys Class C - Vernon-Verona-Sherrill the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 V-V-S 87 V-V-S 89 2 Port Byron 108 Hannibal 107 3 Hannibal 115 Marcellus 127 4 Marcellus 131 Skaneateles 132 5 Skaneateles 149 Port Byron 133 6 Jordan-Elbridge 154 Cazenovia 183 7 Cazenovia 170 Jordan-Elbridge 196 8 Adirondack 209 Clinton 198 9 Clinton 226 Pulaski 220 10 Pulaski 245 Adirondack 229 11 CBA 274 CBA 243 12 Holland Patent 285 Holland Patent 258 13 Phoenix 309 South Jefferson 310 14 South Jefferson 336 Phoenix 376 15 Canastota 476 Solvay 429 16 Solvay 482 Canastota 493 17 Sherburne-Earl 531 Sherburne-Earl 521 Herkimer 558 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... VVS (Vernon-Verona-Sherrill) was a Class B team last year ... This year VVS is the favorite to win the Class C race on their home course ... VVS won the TVL League Championship race and then won a division of the Bernard-Adirondack Invitational ... Port Byron won the OHSL Patriot League meet ... Hannibal raced well at the Chittenango Invitational ... Marcellus is the defending Class C champion. Individual Race ... Owen Walker and Tyler Fauvelle are the favorites for the Class C individual title ... but Joe Riccardi and Ben Dennison are not far behind. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Tyler Fauvelle 10 03-C Adirondack 171 2 Owen Walker 12 03-C VVS 170 3 Joe Riccardi 12 03-C Marcellus 166 4 Ben Dennison 11 03-C Hannibal 165 5 Luke Rathgeb 12 03-C Skaneateles 161 6 Owen Rose 12 03-C VVS 160 7 Andrew Ford 12 03-C Clinton 159 8 Patrick Hall 11 03-C Hannibal 156 9 Riley Nash 10 03-C CBA 156 10 James McPherson 12 03-C Cazenovia 156 11 Michael Schumacher 11 03-C Port Byron 155 12 Sean Dristle 10 03-C Jordan-Elbridge 155 13 Ben York 12 03-C Port Byron 154 14 Zach Medicis 10 03-C CBA 154 15 Spencer Walker 10 03-C VVS 154 16 Braden York 10 03-C Port Byron 153 17 Dylan Richards 11 03-C Holland Patent 152 18 Jon Marecek 12 03-C Cazenovia 152 19 Stone Lutz 12 03-C Adirondack 152 20 Ethan Mosure 12 03-C Marcellus 151 21 Micah Kelly 11 03-C Lowville 151 |
Boys Class D - Beaver River the favorite over Sauquoit Valley |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Beaver River 39 Beaver River 39 2 Sauquoit Valley 56 Sauquoit Valley 43 3 Tully 111 Tully 110 4 Oriskany 147 Oriskany 117 5 West Canada 202 Weedsport 194 6 Cooperstown 218 West Canada Valley 196 7 Weedsport 218 Cooperstown 205 8 New York Mills 257 New York Mills 210 9 South Lewis 279 LaFayette 284 10 LaFayette 285 Blessed Virgin Mary 285 11 Blessed Virgin Mary 354 Waterville 303 12 Utica Notre Dame 365 Hamilton 315 13 Hamilton 373 Utica Notre Dame 339 14 Waterville 382 Sandy Creek 355 15 MPH 402 Fabius-Pompey 406 16 Sandy Creek 421 Westmoreland 455 17 Old Forge 451 18 Cato-Meridian 455 19 Westmoreland 489 20 Fabius-Pompey 492 21 Herkimer 634 22 Little Falls 644 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the defending Class D champion once again ... but Beaver River enters the race as the morning-line favorite. Beaver River won the Frontier League meet with a perfect score of 15 ... they were then the top team in the merge at the Chittenango Invitational ... Sauquoit Valley won the Center States Conference meet handily ... Beaver River and Sauquoit Valley are the top two ranked Class D teams in the State (as ranked by NY MileSplit), but only one can qualify to compete at States. Individual Race ... Dylan Canarelli is the favorite to win the Class D race (he won this race last year) ... A bunch of guys have a shot at getting one of the five individual qualifying spots to States. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Dylan Canarelli 12 03-D Sauquoit Valley 174 2 Colton Kempney 8 03-D Beaver River 166 3 Daniel Bort 12 03-D Tully 166 4 Sam Sharlow 11 03-D Oriskany 164 5 Connor Demo 12 03-D Beaver River 163 6 Taylor Philpotts 12 03-D Sauquoit Valley 161 7 Josiah Evan 10 03-D Beaver River 160 8 Logan Carnicelli 12 03-D Cato-Meridian 158 9 Ryan Lansing 10 03-D Cooperstown 158 10 Erik Campeau 12 03-D Beaver River 158 11 Cory Demo 9 03-D Beaver River 155 12 Hans Matzal 11 03-D Faith Heritage 155 13 Dylan Williams 10 03-D Waterville 153 14 Austin Canaguier 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 153 15 Jack Rivett 10 03-D Old Forge 152 |
Girls Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ==================== ==== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 19 Fayetteville-Manlius 17 2 Liverpool 53 Liverpool 49 3 West Genesee 94 Baldwinsville 89 4 Baldwinsville 105 West Genesee 114 5 Cicero-North Syracuse 128 Cicero-North Syracuse 139 6 Rome Free Academy 151 Rome Free Academy 145 7 Central Square 207 Central Square 198 8 Auburn 239 Auburn 251 9 Syracuse West 288 Proctor 275 10 Proctor 296 Syracuse East 299 11 Syracuse East 319 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top-rated team in the nation once again, and the odds-on favorite to win this race handily. Liverpool is in the hunt for a possible NXN bid at the end of the season (they beat West Genesee by 57-101 at the SCAC League meet). Individual Race ... Once again, looks like a "pick-em" amongst the Fayetteville-Manlius girls with Claire Walters, Phoebe Wright and Sophie Ryan leading the way ... Liverpool's Jenna Schulz and Madison Neuner having been racing well all season. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Claire Walters 10 03-A FM 144 2 Phoebe White 10 03-A FM 144 3 Sophie Ryan 12 03-A FM 142 4 Jenna Schulz 10 03-A Liverpool 138 5 Madison Neuner 11 03-A Liverpool 135 6 Rebecca Walters 12 03-A FM 133 7 Palmer Madsen 12 03-A FM 130 8 Justus Holden-Betts 11 03-A Baldwinsville 129 9 Gianna Capoccia 9 03-A Rome 128 10 Grace Kaercher 9 03-A FM 124 11 Natalie Kurz 12 03-A Liverpool 120 12 Emily Young 12 03-A West Genesee 119 13 Carly Benson 12 03-A West Genesee 118 14 Marian Draper 12 03-A Rome 116 15 Mia Pestle 12 03-A CNS 112 16 Sydney Carlson 9 03-A Liverpool 108 |
Girls Class B - Jamesville-Dewitt the favorite over Westhill |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Jamesville Dewitt 54 Jamesville-Dewitt 55 2 Westhill 70 Westhill 57 3 Camden 112 Camden 104 4 New Hartford 126 New Hartford 134 5 Chittenango 179 Chittenango 168 6 Carthage 210 Oswego 194 7 Whitesboro 217 Whitesboro 197 8 Oswego 222 Carthage 217 9 Cortland 246 Central Valley 226 10 East Syracuse-Minoa 250 Fulton 236 11 Central Valley 274 East Syracuse-Minoa 247 12 Fulton 276 Watertown 270 13 Watertown 316 Indian River 378 14 Homer 344 Oneida 405 15 Oneida 420 16 Indian River 441 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill is the defending Class B champion ... Westhill and Jamesville-Dewitt have been the top Class B teams in recent seasons. This year, Jamesville-Dewitt is the favorite over Westhill ... Jamesville-Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC Championship, but they were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, Liverpool, etc) ... Westhill finished 2nd (to CBA, the Class C favorite) at OHSL Liberty Championship meet. Individual Race ... Elizabeth Lucason is the top-rated Class B runner, but she has not raced since McQuaid at the end of September; I do not know her status entering this race (if she does not race, it will effect the Camden team finish predicted above) ... Sophia Vinciguerra and Madeline Foss are the next top-rated Class B runners. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Elizabeth Lucason 8 03-B Camden 123 2 Sophia Vinciguerra 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 117 3 Madeline Foss 9 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 117 4 Molly Fitzgibbons 10 03-B Oswego 112 5 Morgan Lucason 10 03-B Camden 105 6 Haylei Coolican 11 03-B Westhill 99 7 Haley Hinds 10 03-B Camden 94 8 Abby Palin 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 93 9 Miranda Gilbert 10 03-B Oswego 84 10 Brianna Wheelock 10 03-B New Hartford 83 11 Piper Warren 12 03-B Watertown 83 12 Maura McAnaney 12 03-B Westhill 82 13 Alaina Kenny 12 03-B Westhill 81 14 Lauren Phetteplace 12 03-B Cortland 80 15 McKenzie Dombroski 11 03-B Chittenango 80 |
Girls Class C - CBA favored again |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 CBA 35 CBA 49 2 V-V-S 73 V-V-S 78 3 Clinton 91 Clinton 81 4 Cazenovia 116 Cazenovia 120 5 South Jefferson 140 South Jefferson 163 6 Port Byron 183 Port Byron 187 7 Hannibal 195 Hannibal 189 8 Marcellus 202 Skaneateles 198 9 Skaneateles 205 Jordan-Elbridge 225 10 Jordan-Elbridge 221 Marcellus 228 11 Adirondack 241 Adirondack 246 12 Pulaski 302 Phoenix 303 13 Phoenix 321 Pulaski 304 14 Holland Patent 402 Holland Patent 386 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA is the defending Class C champion and the favorite to win again ... CBA won the OHSL Liberty title with a team score 18 points. VVS is on their home course ... VVS won the TVL League Meet (by 1 point over Rome Free Academy) ... Clinton won the Center States Conference (CSC) meet. Individual Race ... Eva Borton and Olivia Morganti are the top-rated Class C runners. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Eva Borton 11 03-C Clinton 128 2 Olivia Morganti 10 03-C CBA 124 3 Deja Jones 9 03-C CBA 110 4 Taylor Harvey 9 03-C Clinton 109 5 Delaney Brewer 10 03-C VVS 108 6 Clara Rowles 11 03-C Cazenovia 101 7 Claire Bargabos 12 03-C CBA 99 8 Lea Kyle 10 03-C CBA 98 9 Bri Pucci 11 03-C CBA 97 10 Cory Knox 11 03-C CBA 97 11 Hannah Yorkey 12 03-C Port Byron 94 12 Meggie Hart 12 03-C Cazenovia 92 13 Karsyn Burnash 8 03-C South Jefferson 91 14 Theresa Dristle 12 03-C Jordan-Elbridge 91 15 Mary Breckenridge 12 03-C VVS 87 |
Girls Class D - South Lewis favored, but Beaver River is close |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 South Lewis 54 South Lewis 49 2 Beaver River 61 Beaver River 60 3 Tully 98 Tully 106 4 Sauquoit Valley 193 Sauquoit Valley 166 5 Old Forge 200 New York Mills 167 6 New York Mills 228 Remsen 220 7 Cato-Meridian 251 Onondaga 237 8 Remsen 271 Old Forge 249 9 West Canada 274 Mount Markham 251 10 Utica Notre Dame 278 Utica Notre Dame 252 11 Weedsport 296 LaFayette 273 12 Cooperstown 302 Cooperstown 276 13 Onondaga 304 Weedsport 310 14 LaFayette 305 West Canada Valley 319 15 Mt. Markham 310 Sandy Creek 345 16 Little Falls 367 Bishop Grimes 370 17 Sandy Creek 407 18 Bishop Grimes 471 19 Westmoreland 510 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis is the defending Class D champion ... Like last year, South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Frontier League Championship by a narrow margin (27-31) ... South Lewis is the favorite, but this race is close ... Tully has been improving recently and appears to be a solid choice for the 3rd-position. Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title ... Abbey Copperwheat (New York Mills) has run well all season, and is expected to grab a State qualifying position ... South Lewis is the team favorite, but if upset by Beaver River, South Lewis is expected to get 3 individual State qualifying spots. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Brooke Rauber 9 03-D Tully 144 2 Abbey Copperwheat 11 03-D New York Mills 123 3 Hannah Ielfield 9 03-D South Lewis 123 4 Lexi Bernard 8 03-D South Lewis 115 5 Hali Ielfield 12 03-D South Lewis 114 6 Rylee Campeau 11 03-D Beaver River 102 7 Rachel Berry 11 03-D Tully 102 8 Samantha Fanion 12 03-D Cooperstown 99 9 Jade Dening 9 03-D Remsen 98 10 Taylor Moore 11 03-D Beaver River 97 11 Madison Randall 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 96 12 Sarah Sharpe 11 03-D New York Mills 91 13 Laura Levi 12 03-D Old Forge 91 14 Makayla Garrison 9 03-D Beaver River 87 15 Shauna Rice 11 03-D Beaver River 86 16 Sierra Kempney 12 03-D Beaver River 83 17 Alison Carr 11 03-D Tully 82 18 Madilyn Connor 9 03-D West Canada 81 19 Sarah Thompson 10 03-D Bishop Ludden 76 |