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November 1, 2017 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2017 Section 3 Championships

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 1, 2017 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2016

  ...  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2016

 Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on Favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   15           Fayetteville-Manlius    15
  2   Baldwinsville          62           Baldwinsville           55
  3   Liverpool              84           Liverpool               93
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse  90           West Genesee           118
  5   West Genesee          105           Cicero-North Syracuse  119
  6   Central Square        184           Rome Free Academy      179
  7   Rome Free Academy     186           Central Square         198
  8   Auburn                238           Auburn                 230
  9   Syracuse West         257           Syracuse West          272
  10  Proctor               315           Syracuse East          324
  11  Syracuse East         341           Proctor                334
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool, Baldwinsville and CNS at the SCAC League Meet by 15-58-101-117 ... Fayetteville-Manlius could score a perfect 15 point in this sectional championship race, but a bunch of runners from different teams are in contention to finish in the top five.

Individual Race ... The top guys are listed below ... I expect somebody from FM will win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Ben Otis              12   03-A    FM                     181
2   Geoff Howles          10   03-A    FM                     180
3   Sam Otis              11   03-A    FM                     171
4   Jack Duncanson        12   03-A    FM                     170
5   Peyton Geehrer        9    03-A    FM                     168
6   Sean Byrnes           12   03-A    West Genesee           167
7   Nathan Reeves         11   03-A    Liverpool              166
8   Matt Bartolotta       10   03-A    West Genesee           165
9   Matthew Tripp         11   03-A    FM                     165
10  Garrett Vannatta      11   03-A    Baldwinsville          165
11  Nathan Poirier        11   03-A    CNS                    164
12  Benjamin Timmons      12   03-A    Baldwinsville          164
13  Adam Davis            11   03-A    Baldwinsville          163
14  Joe Licameli          11   03-A    Baldwinsville          161
15  Tj Praschunus         11   03-A    Liverpool              160
16  Sam Barber            12   03-A    CNS                    157
17  Gabe Chisari          11   03-A    Central Square         157
18  David Ware            12   03-A    CNS                    156
19  Brandon Martin        11   03-A    CNS                    156
20  John Perperian        12   03-A    CNS                    155

 

 Boys Class B - New Hartford a slight favorite over Jamesville Dewitt

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   New Hartford           78           Westhill                86
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      87           New Hartford            94
  3   Chittenango           117           Jamesville-Dewitt      107
  4   East Syracuse-Minoa   134           East Syracuse-Minoa    130
  5   Homer                 144           Chittenango            131
  6   Westhill              145           Homer                  144
  7   Camden                206           Cortland               181
  8   Cortland              220           Camden                 195
  9   Mexico                226           Oswego                 254
  10  Oswego                283           Mexico                 281
  11  Fulton                297           Whitesboro             283
  12  Whitesboro            322           Fulton                 307
  13  Watertown             340           Watertown              337
  14  Central Valley        358           Central Valley         391
  15  Carthage              360           Carthage               391
  16  Indian River          401           Indian River           422
  17  Oneida                547

Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford is the defending Class B champion ... New Hartford was the top team in the merge at the recent Bernard-Adirondack Invitational and enters this race as a slight favorite over Jamesville Dewitt.

Jamesville Dewitt finish 6th at the  SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, etc) ... Chittenango won the OHSL Liberty Championship.

Individual Race ...Josh Farmer is the favorite to repeat as the Class B champion ... Grant Stokoe, Nick Berg and Andy Ryan are favorites to qualify as individuals to States (top 5 individuals not on the winning team qualify).

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Josh Farmer           11   03-B    New Hartford           178
2   Grant Stokoe          12   03-B    Homer                  168
3   Nick Berg             10   03-B    ESM                    163
4   Andy Ryan             11   03-B    Cortland               162
5   Teddy Mercer          11   03-B    Homer                  159
6   Kaleel Boykins        10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      158
7   Tim Cook              12   03-B    Camden                 157
8   Garrett Jones         12   03-B    New Hartford           156
9   Jason Green           10   03-B    New Hartford           155
10  Andrew Swenson        12   03-B    Homer                  155
11  Brendan Rewakowski    11   03-B    Westhill               154
12  Nolan Byrd            10   03-B    ESM                    153
13  Ersilio Cerminaro     11   03-B    Chittenango            153
14  Karl Farber           12   03-B    Chittenango            152
15  Tyler Stevens         11   03-B    Cortland               150

 

 Boys Class C - Vernon-Verona-Sherrill the favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   V-V-S                  87           V-V-S                   89
  2   Port Byron            108           Hannibal               107
  3   Hannibal              115           Marcellus              127
  4   Marcellus             131           Skaneateles            132
  5   Skaneateles           149           Port Byron             133
  6   Jordan-Elbridge       154           Cazenovia              183
  7   Cazenovia             170           Jordan-Elbridge        196
  8   Adirondack            209           Clinton                198
  9   Clinton               226           Pulaski                220
  10  Pulaski               245           Adirondack             229
  11  CBA                   274           CBA                    243
  12  Holland Patent        285           Holland Patent         258
  13  Phoenix               309           South Jefferson        310
  14  South Jefferson       336           Phoenix                376
  15  Canastota             476           Solvay                 429
  16  Solvay                482           Canastota              493
  17  Sherburne-Earl        531           Sherburne-Earl         521
                                          Herkimer               558

Pre-Race Analysis ... VVS (Vernon-Verona-Sherrill) was a Class B team last year ... This year VVS is the favorite to win the Class C race on their home course ... VVS won the TVL League Championship race and then won a division of the Bernard-Adirondack Invitational ... Port Byron won the OHSL Patriot League meet ... Hannibal raced well at the Chittenango Invitational ... Marcellus is the defending Class C champion.

Individual Race ... Owen Walker and Tyler Fauvelle are the favorites for the Class C individual title ... but Joe Riccardi and Ben Dennison are not far behind.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Tyler Fauvelle        10   03-C    Adirondack             171
2   Owen Walker           12   03-C    VVS                    170
3   Joe Riccardi          12   03-C    Marcellus              166
4   Ben Dennison          11   03-C    Hannibal               165
5   Luke Rathgeb          12   03-C    Skaneateles            161
6   Owen Rose             12   03-C    VVS                    160
7   Andrew Ford           12   03-C    Clinton                159
8   Patrick Hall          11   03-C    Hannibal               156
9   Riley Nash            10   03-C    CBA                    156
10  James McPherson       12   03-C    Cazenovia              156
11  Michael Schumacher    11   03-C    Port Byron             155
12  Sean Dristle          10   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        155
13  Ben York              12   03-C    Port Byron             154
14  Zach Medicis          10   03-C    CBA                    154
15  Spencer Walker        10   03-C    VVS                    154
16  Braden York           10   03-C    Port Byron             153
17  Dylan Richards        11   03-C    Holland Patent         152
18  Jon Marecek           12   03-C    Cazenovia              152
19  Stone Lutz            12   03-C    Adirondack             152
20  Ethan Mosure          12   03-C    Marcellus              151
21  Micah Kelly           11   03-C    Lowville               151

 

 Boys Class D -  Beaver River the favorite over Sauquoit Valley

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Beaver River           39           Beaver River            39
  2   Sauquoit Valley        56           Sauquoit Valley         43
  3   Tully                 111           Tully                  110
  4   Oriskany              147           Oriskany               117
  5   West Canada           202           Weedsport              194
  6   Cooperstown           218           West Canada Valley     196
  7   Weedsport             218           Cooperstown            205
  8   New York Mills        257           New York Mills         210
  9   South Lewis           279           LaFayette              284
  10  LaFayette             285           Blessed Virgin Mary    285
  11  Blessed Virgin Mary   354           Waterville             303
  12  Utica Notre Dame      365           Hamilton               315
  13  Hamilton              373           Utica Notre Dame       339
  14  Waterville            382           Sandy Creek            355
  15  MPH                   402           Fabius-Pompey          406
  16  Sandy Creek           421           Westmoreland           455
  17  Old Forge             451
  18  Cato-Meridian         455
  19  Westmoreland          489
  20  Fabius-Pompey         492
  21  Herkimer              634
  22  Little Falls          644

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the defending Class D champion once again ... but Beaver River enters the race as the morning-line favorite.

Beaver River won the Frontier League meet with a perfect score of 15 ... they were then the top team in the merge at the Chittenango Invitational ... Sauquoit Valley won the Center States Conference meet handily ... Beaver River and Sauquoit Valley are the top two ranked Class D teams in the State (as ranked by NY MileSplit), but only one can qualify to compete at States.

Individual Race ... Dylan Canarelli is the favorite to win the Class D race (he won this race last year) ... A bunch of guys have a shot at getting one of the five individual qualifying spots to States.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Dylan Canarelli       12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        174
2   Colton Kempney        8    03-D    Beaver River           166
3   Daniel Bort           12   03-D    Tully                  166
4   Sam Sharlow           11   03-D    Oriskany               164
5   Connor Demo           12   03-D    Beaver River           163
6   Taylor Philpotts      12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        161
7   Josiah Evan           10   03-D    Beaver River           160
8   Logan Carnicelli      12   03-D    Cato-Meridian          158
9   Ryan Lansing          10   03-D    Cooperstown            158
10  Erik Campeau          12   03-D    Beaver River           158
11  Cory Demo             9    03-D    Beaver River           155
12  Hans Matzal           11   03-D    Faith Heritage         155
13  Dylan Williams        10   03-D    Waterville             153
14  Austin Canaguier      11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        153
15  Jack Rivett           10   03-D    Old Forge              152

 

 Girls Class A -  Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   19           Fayetteville-Manlius   17
  2   Liverpool              53           Liverpool              49
  3   West Genesee           94           Baldwinsville          89
  4   Baldwinsville         105           West Genesee          114
  5   Cicero-North Syracuse 128           Cicero-North Syracuse 139
  6   Rome Free Academy     151           Rome Free Academy     145
  7   Central Square        207           Central Square        198
  8   Auburn                239           Auburn                251
  9   Syracuse West         288           Proctor               275
  10  Proctor               296           Syracuse East         299
  11  Syracuse East         319
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top-rated team in the nation once again, and the odds-on favorite to win this race handily.

Liverpool is in the hunt for a possible NXN bid at the end of the season (they beat West Genesee by 57-101 at the SCAC League meet).

Individual Race ... Once again, looks like a "pick-em" amongst the Fayetteville-Manlius girls with Claire Walters, Phoebe Wright and Sophie Ryan leading the way ... Liverpool's Jenna Schulz and Madison Neuner having been racing well all season.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Claire Walters        10   03-A    FM                     144
2   Phoebe White          10   03-A    FM                     144
3   Sophie Ryan           12   03-A    FM                     142
4   Jenna Schulz          10   03-A    Liverpool              138
5   Madison Neuner        11   03-A    Liverpool              135
6   Rebecca Walters       12   03-A    FM                     133
7   Palmer Madsen         12   03-A    FM                     130
8   Justus Holden-Betts   11   03-A    Baldwinsville          129
9   Gianna Capoccia       9    03-A    Rome                   128
10  Grace Kaercher        9    03-A    FM                     124
11  Natalie Kurz          12   03-A    Liverpool              120
12  Emily Young           12   03-A    West Genesee           119
13  Carly Benson          12   03-A    West Genesee           118
14  Marian Draper         12   03-A    Rome                   116
15  Mia Pestle            12   03-A    CNS                    112
16  Sydney Carlson        9    03-A    Liverpool              108

 

 Girls Class B  -  Jamesville-Dewitt the favorite over Westhill
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      54           Jamesville-Dewitt      55
  2   Westhill               70           Westhill               57
  3   Camden                112           Camden                104
  4   New Hartford          126           New Hartford          134
  5   Chittenango           179           Chittenango           168
  6   Carthage              210           Oswego                194
  7   Whitesboro            217           Whitesboro            197
  8   Oswego                222           Carthage              217
  9   Cortland              246           Central Valley        226
  10  East Syracuse-Minoa   250           Fulton                236
  11  Central Valley        274           East Syracuse-Minoa   247
  12  Fulton                276           Watertown             270
  13  Watertown             316           Indian River          378
  14  Homer                 344           Oneida                405
  15  Oneida                420
  16  Indian River          441
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill is the defending Class B champion ... Westhill and Jamesville-Dewitt have been the top Class B teams in recent seasons.

This year, Jamesville-Dewitt is the favorite over Westhill ... Jamesville-Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC Championship, but they were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, Liverpool, etc) ... Westhill finished 2nd (to CBA, the Class C favorite) at OHSL Liberty Championship meet.

Individual Race ... Elizabeth Lucason is the top-rated Class B runner, but she has not raced since McQuaid at the end of September; I do not know her status entering this race (if she does not race, it will effect the Camden team finish predicted above) ... Sophia Vinciguerra and Madeline Foss are the next top-rated Class B runners.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Elizabeth Lucason     8    03-B    Camden                 123
2   Sophia Vinciguerra    11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      117
3   Madeline Foss         9    03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      117
4   Molly Fitzgibbons     10   03-B    Oswego                 112
5   Morgan Lucason        10   03-B    Camden                 105
6   Haylei Coolican       11   03-B    Westhill               99
7   Haley Hinds           10   03-B    Camden                 94
8   Abby Palin            11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      93
9   Miranda Gilbert       10   03-B    Oswego                 84
10  Brianna Wheelock      10   03-B    New Hartford           83
11  Piper Warren          12   03-B    Watertown              83
12  Maura McAnaney        12   03-B    Westhill               82
13  Alaina Kenny          12   03-B    Westhill               81
14  Lauren Phetteplace    12   03-B    Cortland               80
15  McKenzie Dombroski    11   03-B    Chittenango            80

 

 Girls Class C -  CBA favored again

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   CBA                    35           CBA                    49
  2   V-V-S                  73           V-V-S                  78
  3   Clinton                91           Clinton                81
  4   Cazenovia             116           Cazenovia             120
  5   South Jefferson       140           South Jefferson       163
  6   Port Byron            183           Port Byron            187
  7   Hannibal              195           Hannibal              189
  8   Marcellus             202           Skaneateles           198
  9   Skaneateles           205           Jordan-Elbridge       225
  10  Jordan-Elbridge       221           Marcellus             228
  11  Adirondack            241           Adirondack            246
  12  Pulaski               302           Phoenix               303
  13  Phoenix               321           Pulaski               304
  14  Holland Patent        402           Holland Patent        386
							

Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA is the defending Class C champion and the favorite to win again ... CBA won the OHSL Liberty title with a team score 18 points.

VVS is on their home course ... VVS won the TVL League Meet (by 1 point over Rome Free Academy) ... Clinton won the Center States Conference (CSC) meet.

Individual Race ... Eva Borton and Olivia Morganti are the top-rated Class C runners.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Eva Borton            11   03-C    Clinton                128
2   Olivia Morganti       10   03-C    CBA                    124
3   Deja Jones            9    03-C    CBA                    110
4   Taylor Harvey         9    03-C    Clinton                109
5   Delaney Brewer        10   03-C    VVS                    108
6   Clara Rowles          11   03-C    Cazenovia              101
7   Claire Bargabos       12   03-C    CBA                    99
8   Lea Kyle              10   03-C    CBA                    98
9   Bri Pucci             11   03-C    CBA                    97
10  Cory Knox             11   03-C    CBA                    97
11  Hannah Yorkey         12   03-C    Port Byron             94
12  Meggie Hart           12   03-C    Cazenovia              92
13  Karsyn Burnash        8    03-C    South Jefferson        91
14  Theresa Dristle       12   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        91
15  Mary Breckenridge     12   03-C    VVS                    87

 

 Girls Class D -  South Lewis favored, but Beaver River is close
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   South Lewis            54           South Lewis            49
  2   Beaver River           61           Beaver River           60
  3   Tully                  98           Tully                 106
  4   Sauquoit Valley       193           Sauquoit Valley       166
  5   Old Forge             200           New York Mills        167
  6   New York Mills        228           Remsen                220
  7   Cato-Meridian         251           Onondaga              237
  8   Remsen                271           Old Forge             249
  9   West Canada           274           Mount Markham         251
  10  Utica Notre Dame      278           Utica Notre Dame      252
  11  Weedsport             296           LaFayette             273
  12  Cooperstown           302           Cooperstown           276
  13  Onondaga              304           Weedsport             310
  14  LaFayette             305           West Canada Valley    319
  15  Mt. Markham           310           Sandy Creek           345
  16  Little Falls          367           Bishop Grimes         370
  17  Sandy Creek           407
  18  Bishop Grimes         471
  19  Westmoreland          510
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis is the defending Class D champion ... Like last year, South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Frontier League Championship by a narrow margin (27-31) ... South Lewis is the favorite, but this race is close ... Tully has been improving recently and appears to be a solid choice for the 3rd-position.

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title ... Abbey Copperwheat (New York Mills) has run well all season, and is expected to grab a State qualifying position ... South Lewis is the team favorite, but if upset by Beaver River, South Lewis is expected to get 3 individual State qualifying spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Brooke Rauber         9    03-D    Tully                  144
2   Abbey Copperwheat     11   03-D    New York Mills         123
3   Hannah Ielfield       9    03-D    South Lewis            123
4   Lexi Bernard          8    03-D    South Lewis            115
5   Hali Ielfield         12   03-D    South Lewis            114
6   Rylee Campeau         11   03-D    Beaver River           102
7   Rachel Berry          11   03-D    Tully                  102
8   Samantha Fanion       12   03-D    Cooperstown            99
9   Jade Dening           9    03-D    Remsen                 98
10  Taylor Moore          11   03-D    Beaver River           97
11  Madison Randall       11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        96
12  Sarah Sharpe          11   03-D    New York Mills         91
13  Laura Levi            12   03-D    Old Forge              91
14  Makayla Garrison      9    03-D    Beaver River           87
15  Shauna Rice           11   03-D    Beaver River           86
16  Sierra Kempney        12   03-D    Beaver River           83
17  Alison Carr           11   03-D    Tully                  82
18  Madilyn Connor        9    03-D    West Canada            81
19  Sarah Thompson        10   03-D    Bishop Ludden          76