| Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2017 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 25, 2017
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 22, 2017 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 25, 2016 |
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 25, 2016
| NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries |
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Too Close to Call |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
==================== ======= ======= ===================== =====
1 Burnt Hills 101 (02-B ) Fayetteville-Manlius 50
2 Corning 102 (04-A ) Corning 98
3 Fayetteville-Manlius 103 (03-A ) Burnt Hills 133
4 Northport 148 (11-A ) Northport 152
5 Niskayuna 152 (02-A ) Smithtown 156
6 Smithtown 155 (11-A ) Niskayuna 202
7 Xavier 169 (CHSAA) Fairport 209
8 Fairport 200 (05-A ) Bethlehem 210
9 Bethlehem 200 (02-A ) Xavier 218
10 Ithaca 298 (04-A ) Liverpool 286
11 Manhasset 332 (08-A ) Guilderand 311
12 Baldwinsville 335 (03-A ) Ithaca 311
13 Guilderland 358 (02-A ) Baldwinsville 317
14 Irondequoit 438 (05-A ) Mannhasset 334
15 Mount Academy 439 (09-C ) Mount Academy 370
16 Beaver River 441 (03-D ) Commack 395
17 East Aurora 467 (06-B ) Irondequoit 433
18 Liverpool 479 (03-A ) East Aurora 438
19 West Genesee 503 (03-A ) Regis 455
20 Honeoye FL 521 (05-B ) Beaver River 467
21 Commack 522 (11-A ) Maine-Endwell 551
22 Regis 534 (CHSAA) West Genesee 564
23 Maine-Endwell 598 (04-B ) Honeoye FL 612
24 Union Endicott 647 (04-A ) Union Endicott 667
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... The numbers make this race too close to call amongst Burnt Hills, Corning and Fayetteville-Manlius ... So I posted the numbers exactly as predicted. Corning won the NY State Meet (Class A) by 2 points over Fayetteville-Manlius ... Burnt Hills won the Class B race at States handily, but in the State Meet Merge, Corning and Fayetteville-Manlius beat Burnt Hills by 63-67-69. The race for the 4th-place spot looks wide-open between Northport, Niskayuna, Smithtown and Xavier. I almost placed Fayetteville-Manlius at the 1st or 2nd-spot above because FM seems to get the job done at this meet ... But to me, it looks wide-open at the top. Individual Race ... The top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN qualify for NXN Nationals ... The overall speed ratings below indicate a wide-open race ... Looks very competitive. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Nathan Lawler 12 05-B Pittsford Mendon 192 Not In NXN Entries 2 Mason Gatewood 12 CHS St. Anthonys 190 Not In NXN Entries 3 Silas Derfel 12 04-A Ithaca 190 NXN Team 4 Tyler Berg 11 02-B Burnt Hills 187 NXN Team 5 Parker Stokes 11 04-B Maine-Endwell 187 NXN Team 6 Aidan Gillooley 11 02-B Burnt Hills 186 NXN Team 7 Shea Weilbaker 11 02-A Saratoga 186 NXN Individual 8 Ian Russ 12 06-B East Aurora 184 NXN Team 9 Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 10 09-A Warwick 184 NXN Individual 10 Ben Otis 12 03-A FM 184 NXN Team 11 Quinn Nicholson 12 04-A Corning 183 NXN Team 12 Donnovan Tucker 12 02-A Niskayuna 182 NXN Team 13 Payton Gleason 12 05-A Churchville 182 NXN Individual 14 Cal Puskar 12 06-A Orchard Park 181 Not In NXN Entries 15 Ryan Buzby 12 06-B Grand Island 181 Not In NXN Entries 16 Liam Higgins 12 09-B Goshen 181 Not In NXN Entries 17 Noah Tindale 11 02-A Guilderland 180 NXN Team 18 Ryan Tierney 12 CHS St. Peter's 179 Not In NXN Entries 19 Geoff Howles 10 03-A FM 179 NXN Team 20 Kal Lewis 10 11-D Shelter Island 179 Not In NXN Entries 21 Maazin Ahmed 12 02-A Schenectady 179 Not In NXN Entries 22 Jack Huber 12 02-A Bethlehem 179 NXN Team 23 Daniel Gahagan 12 04-A Corning 179 NXN Team 24 Sean Henretta 11 05-A Fairport 179 NXN Team 25 Tyler Senall 12 05-A Penfield 179 Not In NXN Entries 26 Matthew Fusco 12 01-B Somers 178 NXN Individual 27 Evan Brennan 11 02-B Burnt Hills 178 NXN Team 28 Patrick Tuohy 12 01-A North Rockland 178 NXN Individual 29 Isaiah Claiborne 12 11-A Northport 178 NXN Team 30 Garrett Brennan 11 03-A FM 177 NXN Team 31 Ryan Guerci 11 01-B Nanuet 177 NXN Individual 32 Colin Ross 12 02-A Niskayuna 177 NXN Team 33 Marty Dolan 11 02-A Niskayuna 177 NXN Team 34 Greg Fusco 12 01-B Somers 177 NXN Individual 35 Carlos Santos 12 11-A Patchogue-Medford 177 Not In NXN Entries 36 Dan O'Connor 12 11-A Northport 176 NXN Team 37 Josef Raphael Oettl 12 CHS Xavier 176 NXN Team 38 Josh Farmer 11 03-B New Hartford 176 NXN Individual |
| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
==================== ======= ======= ===================== =====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 37 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 23
2 Shenendehowa 105 (02-A ) Liverpool 84
3 Saratoga 106 (02-A ) Saratoga 136
4 Niskayuna 129 (02-A ) Shenendehowa 139
5 Liverpool 129 (03-A ) North Rockland 154
6 John Jay CR 179 (01-B ) Niskayuna 171
7 North Rockland 183 (01-A ) Monroe-Woodbury 174
8 Monroe-Woodbury 203 (09-A ) John Jay CR 174
9 Bethlehem 221 (02-A ) Bethlehem 227
10 East Aurora 242 (06-B ) East Aurora 242
11 Corning 310 (04-A ) Corning 296
12 Syosset 312 (08-A ) Syosset 316
13 Sachem North 363 (11-A ) Sachem North 321
14 Fairport 377 (05-A ) Commack 374
15 Commack 410 (11-A ) Hamburg 422
16 Hamburg 419 (06-B )
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (again).
Saratoga and Shenendehowa raced at Feds ... Saratoga beat Shenendehowa by 99-109 ... This looks like a toss-up for the #2 position ... But Niskayuna and Liverpool are not far behind, and are within range but getting the second auto-qualifying positions. Individual Race ... 13 of the top 14 overall speed-rated girls in NY are entered at NXN ... Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel are the favorites entering this New York regional ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is a favorite to grab an individual qualifying spot. The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Katelyn Tuohy 10 01-A North Rockland 169 NXN Team 2 Kelsey Chmiel 11 02-A Saratoga 156 NXN Team 3 Claire Walters 10 03-A FM 147 NXN Team 4 Brooke Rauber 9 03-D Tully 144 NXN Individual 5 Katherine Lee 12 11-B Shoreham Wading R 143 Not In NXN Entries 6 Phoebe White 10 03-A FM 143 NXN Team 7 Sophie Ryan 12 03-A FM 143 NXN Team 8 Rebecca Walters 12 03-A FM 138 NXN Team 9 Jenna Schulz 10 03-A Liverpool 137 NXN Team 10 Abigail Spiers 12 02-A Niskayuna 137 NXN Team 11 Hannah Reale 12 02-A Shenendehowa 136 NXN Team 12 Hayleigh Palotti 12 05-C Livonia 135 NXN Individual 13 Mary Hennelly 10 01-A Suffern 135 NXN Individual 14 Madison Neuner 11 03-A Liverpool 132 NXN Team 15 Eva Borton 11 03-C Clinton 132 Not In NXN Entries 16 Dana Lynch 11 09-A Middletown 131 Not In NXN Entries 17 Sarah Trainor 10 09-A FD Roosevelt 131 NXN Individual 18 Reilly Siebert 12 08-A Syosset 129 NXN Team 19 Faith Demars 10 02-A Ballston Spa 128 NXN Individual 20 Sydney Nowicki 9 06-A Lockport 128 NXN Individual 21 Sarah Connelly 10 11-B Mount Sinai 128 Not In NXN Entries 22 Maggie Maier 10 CHS Sacred Heart 127 Not In NXN Entries 23 Justus Holden-Betts 11 03-A Baldwinsville 127 NXN Individual 24 Gianna Capoccia 9 03-A Rome 126 Not In NXN Entries 25 Brynne Wright 10 02-D Greenwich 126 NXN Individual 26 Olivia Lomascolo 12 02-A Shenendehowa 126 NXN Team 27 Megan McLaughlin 8 06-B East Aurora 125 NXN Team 28 Roshni Singh 10 11-A Bay Shore 125 Not In NXN Entries 29 Caroline Timm 12 01-B Lourdes 125 Not In NXN Entries 30 Rachel Hodge 10 02-A Bethlehem 124 NXN Team 31 Hannah Ielfield 9 03-D South Lewis 124 NXN Individual 32 Grace Kaercher 9 03-A FM 124 NXN Team 33 Jessica Pidgeon 11 09-A Monroe-Woodbury 123 NXN Team |