November 2, 2016 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2016 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 2, 2016 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 6, 2016
... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 6, 2016
| Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius favored |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 48 Liverpool 35
2 Liverpool 59 Fayetteville-Manlius 46
3 Baldwinsville 65 Baldwinsville 69
4 Cicero-North Syracuse 115 Cicero-North Syracuse 131
5 West Genesee 122 West Genesee 134
6 Central Square 202 Central Square 194
7 Auburn 223 Rome Free Academy 212
8 Syracuse West 229 Syracuse West 237
9 Rome 244 Auburn 238
10 Proctor 317 Proctor 313
11 Oswego 345 Syracuse East 340
12 Syracuse East 346 Oswego 346
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool and Baldwinsville at the CNYCL League Meet by 41-52-59 ... That makes Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite in this sectional championship race, but the projected scores show the race is very close. Individual Race ... Looks like a good match-up between the top guys listed below ... Stephen Schulz and Ty Brownlow ran one-two at the CNYCL League Meet. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Stephen Schulz 12 03-A Liverpool 188 2 Patrick Perry 12 03-A FM 186 3 Ty Brownlow 12 03-A Liverpool 185 4 David Leff 12 03-A West Genesee 181 5 Josh Hickmott 12 03-A Liverpool 179 6 Davone Hernandez 12 03-A Rome 177 7 Ben Otis 11 03-A FM 174 8 Jack Boltman 12 03-A FM 169 9 Garrett Brennan 10 03-A FM 168 10 Evan Biedermann 12 03-A Baldwinsville 167 11 Matthew Tripp 10 03-A FM 167 12 Cameron Morrissey 12 03-A Baldwinsville 167 13 Nathan Poirier 10 03-A CNS 167 14 Solomon Lawrence 12 03-A Syracuse West 167 15 Adam Davis 10 03-A Baldwinsville 166 16 Joe Walters 12 03-A FM 166 |
| Boys Class B - New Hartford and Chittenango - Very Close |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== =================== =====
1 New Hartford 82 New Hartford 63
2 Chittenango 85 Carthage 105
3 Jamesville Dewitt 128 Chittenango 110
4 Fulton 158 Jamesville Dewitt 130
5 Carthage 169 Westhill-Ludden 150
6 ESM 172 VVS 152
7 VVS 179 ESM 154
8 Westhill-Ludden 180 Homer 207
9 Homer 181 Fulton 233
10 Phoenix 240 Phoenix 260
11 Cortland 249 Whitesboro 295
12 Whitesboro 317 Camden 328
13 Camden 342 Mexico 368
14 Watertown 395 Watertown 382
15 Central Valley 403 Cortland 424
16 Mexico 416 Central Valley 437
17 Indian River 479 Indian River 473
18 Oneida 486 Oneida 479
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford won the TVL League meet handily and then beat Chittenango by 45-54 at the Bernard-Adirondack Invite ... Chittenango lost a closely contested race at the OHSL Liberty League meet to Class C favorite Marcellus (49-53) ... Chittenango is racing on their home course, so I expected this race could be a toss-up. Individual Race ... Patrick Dye and Josh Farmer are the top two rated guys ... |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Patrick Dye 12 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 179 2 Josh Farmer 10 03-B New Hartford 177 3 Nick Berg 9 03-B ESM 168 4 Kenneth Deloff 12 03-B Fulton 168 5 Owen Walker 11 03-B VVS 163 6 Brian Lamonica 12 03-B Carthage 162 7 Grant Stokoe 11 03-B Homer 159 8 Jared Henry 12 03-B ESM 157 9 Mike Capeling 12 03-B Chittenango 157 10 Ersilio Cerminero 10 03-B Chittenango 153 11 Troy Henderson 12 03-B New Hartford 152 12 Andy Ryan 10 03-B Cortland 150 13 Garrett Jones 11 03-B New Hartford 150 14 Karl Farber 11 03-B Chittenango 149 |
| Boys Class C - Marcellus a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Marcellus 59 Marcellus 57
2 Cazenovia 119 Clinton 97
3 Jordan-Elbridge 123 Cazenovia 138
4 Clinton 133 Hannibal 138
5 Hannibal 142 CBA 139
6 Holland Patent 146 Holland Patent 139
7 Port Byron 163 Jordan-Elbridge 162
8 CBA 169 Port Byron 186
9 Pulaski 229 Pulaski 220
10 Adirondack 267 Skaneateles 228
11 Skaneateles 299 South Jefferson 309
12 South Jefferson 305 Adirondack 316
13 Canastota 360 Canastota 351
14 APW 397 Solvay 368
15 Solvay 427
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... Marcellus won the OHSL Liberty meet handily and enters this Class C race as a very solid favorite ... Marcellus was also the top team in the merge at the recent Bernard-Adirondack Invite. Individual Race ... Dominic Morganti is the favorite, but CJ Militello has raced well all season. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Dominic Morganti 12 03-C CBA 176 2 CJ Militello 12 03-C Clinton 171 3 Adam Vanvalkenburgh 12 03-C Canastota 159 4 Joe Riccardi 11 03-C Marcellus 159 5 James McPherson 11 03-C Cazenovia 157 6 Chris Celecki 12 03-C Holland Patent 157 7 Matt Strempel 12 03-C Marcellus 155 8 Michael Schumacher 10 03-C Port Byron 154 9 Jon Marecek 11 03-C Cazenovia 152 10 Tanner Ludwin 11 03-C Holland Patent 152 11 Ethan Mosure 11 03-C Marcellus 151 |
| Boys Class D - Sauquoit Valley and Tully - Too Close to Call |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 60 Sauquoit Valley 50
2 Tully 61 Tully 65
3 Beaver River 69 Beaver River 74
4 Oriskany 160 Oriskany 147
5 South Lewis 177 South Lewis 152
6 Weedsport 235 Weedsport 223
7 West Canada 291 Cooperstown 264
8 LaFayette 306 New York Mills 298
9 New York Mills 314 West Canada 311
10 Cooperstown 325 Sandy Creek 312
11 Sandy Creek 354 LaFayette 318
12 Blessed Virgin Mary 365 Dolgeville 350
13 Remsen 373 Hamilton 355
14 Dolgeville 397 Cato-Meridian 363
15 Onondaga 456 Fabius-Pompey 370
16 Hamilton 457 Mount Markham 430
17 Cato-Meridian 470 Utica Notre Dame 442
18 Fabius-Pompey 470 Old Forge 461
19 Waterville 488 Deruyter 486
20 Old Forge 525 Herkimer 500
21 Mt. Markham 535 MPH 519
22 Herkimer 578
23 Utica Notre Dame 588
24 DeRuyter 622
25 MPH 653
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the defending Class D champion in Section 3 ... Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Conference Meet and then raced very well against much larger Queensbury at the Harvest Classic Invite (losing by only 46-50) ... Tully has been improving and won the OHSL Patriot Championship handily ... Beaver River is also capable of winning with a good performance ... This could be very close. Individual Race ... Dylan Canarelli is the favorite to win the Class D race ... A bunch of guys have a shot at getting one of the five individual qualifying spots to States. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Dylan Canarelli 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 176 2 Connor Demo 11 03-D Beaver River 164 3 Dylan Durgan 12 03-D South Lewis 160 4 Dan Bort 11 03-D Tully 158 5 Ryan Hanson 12 03-D Tully 155 6 Chris Larson 12 03-D Bishop Grimes 155 7 Taylor Philpotts 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 155 8 Joshua Seeberger 12 03-D Dolgeville 154 9 Logan Carnicelli 11 03-D Cato-Meridian 152 10 Erik Campeau 11 03-D Beaver River 151 11 Jake Baisley 12 03-D Dolgeville 151 12 Jason Phelps 12 03-D Tully 151 13 Cory Demo 8 03-D Beaver River 148 14 Jake Link 11 03-D Sauquoit Valley 146 15 Matt Moser 10 03-D Beaver River 143 |
| Girls Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ==================== ====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 15 Fayetteville-Manlius 15
2 West Genesee 71 West Genesee 67
3 Liverpool 80 Liverpool 73
4 Baldwinsville 101 Baldwinsville 110
5 Cicero-North Syracuse 130 Cicero-North Syracuse 145
6 Central Square 201 Rome 187
7 Rome 202 Central Square 197
8 Auburn 254 Proctor 245
9 Proctor 263 Auburn 255
10 Syracuse West 295 Syracuse West 277
11 Oswego 311 Syracuse East 311
12 Syracuse East 319
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius could score a perfect 15 again West Genesee and Liverpool are not separated by much for the runner-up spot (potential implication for a Federation "at-large" bid). Individual Race ... Looks like a "pick-em" amongst the Fayetteville-Manlius girls with Sophie Ryan and Claire Walters leading the way ... Looks like a good competition for the five individual qualifying spots for States. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Sophie Ryan 11 03-A FM 142 2 Claire Walters 9 03-A FM 141 3 Palmer Madsen 11 03-A FM 137 4 Phoebe White 9 03-A FM 135 5 Rebecca Walters 11 03-A FM 131 6 Jenna Schulz 9 03-A Liverpool 128 7 Carly Benson 11 03-A West Genesee 125 8 Justus Holden-Betts 10 03-A Baldwinsville 125 9 Madison Neuner 10 03-A Liverpool 119 10 Mia Mitchell 9 03-A West Genesee 119 11 Vanessa Eberhard 12 03-A Liverpool 118 12 Emily Young 11 03-A West Genesee 116 13 Marian Draper 11 03-A Rome 115 14 Reilly Madsen 12 03-A FM 114 15 Keita Peden 12 03-A FM 112 16 Annina Marullo 11 03-A CNS 112 |
| Girls Class B - Westhill-Ludden a slight favorite over Jamesville-Dewitt |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill-Ludden 46 Westhill-Ludden 41
2 Jamesville Dewitt 51 Jamesville-Dewitt 50
3 VVS 99 VVS 109
4 New Hartford 100 New Hartford 110
5 Camden 177 Camden 180
6 ESM 235 ESM 221
7 Whitesboro 241 Homer 227
8 Cortland 248 Cortland 231
9 Chittenango 249 Carthage 233
10 Carthage 260 Whitesboro 252
11 Homer 288 Central Valley 276
12 Central Valley 306 Chittenango 285
13 Phoenix 327 Phoenix 350
14 Oneida 349 Watertown 355
15 Watertown 405 Indian River 426
16 Fulton 432
17 Indian River 512
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden is the defending Class B champion and they won the OHSL Liberty meet handily ... Last year was also a close match-up between Westhill-Ludden and Jamesville-Dewitt, and Westhill-Ludden won when Jamesville-Dewitt was the slight favorite ... Jamesville-Dewitt won this year's OHSL Freedom meet handily. Individual Race ... Elizabeth Lucason has been racing very nicely is recent races and is a slight favorite to win ... However, Hannah Butler is very capable of winning this race. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Elizabeth Lucason 7 03-B Camden 128 2 Hannah Butler 12 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 125 3 Morgan Lucason 9 03-B Camden 110 4 Brianna Wilbur 12 03-B New Hartford 110 5 Liz Kessler 9 03-B Westhill-Ludden 110 6 Haylei Coolican 10 03-B Westhill-Ludden 106 7 Sophia Vinciguerra 10 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 99 8 Alaina Kenny 11 03-B Westhill-Ludden 89 9 Kylie Nowicki 8 03-B Westhill-Ludden 87 10 Allison Donnelly 10 03-B VVS 86 11 Piper Warren 11 03-B Watertown 86 12 Abby Palin 10 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 85 13 Megan Brown 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 84 14 Mary Breckenridge 11 03-B VVS 84 |
| Girls Class C - CBA favored |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 CBA 65 CBA 59
2 Clinton 93 Clinton 66
3 Cazenovia 104 Marcellus 84
4 Marcellus 123 Cazenovia 92
5 Port Byron 124 Skaneateles 137
6 Jordan-Elbridge 138 Hannibal 139
7 Skaneateles 146 Port Byron 149
8 Hannibal 166 Jordan-Elbridge 191
9 Adirondack 273 Adirondack 228
10 APW 281 South Jefferson 274
11 South Jefferson 306 Holland Patent 299
12 Canastota 327 Pulaski 323
13 Pulaski 333
14 Holland Patent 362
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA beat Cazenovia at the OHSL Liberty Championships (61-92) and earns the favorite position. Individual Race ... A close race at the top end as noted below ... Five girls have a legitimate shot a winning this race. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Eva Borton 10 03-C Clinton 120 2 Emma Novak 12 03-C Clinton 119 3 Meggie Hart 11 03-C Cazenovia 117 4 Clara Rowles 10 03-C Cazenovia 116 5 Julia Willcox 12 03-C Skaneateles 110 6 Lea Kyle 9 03-C CBA 101 7 Cory Knox 10 03-C CBA 99 8 Brianna Karboski 12 03-C APW 93 9 Deja Jones 8 03-C CBA 93 10 Gabrielle Dewhurst 12 03-C Clinton 93 11 Liliana Cushman 11 03-C Marcellus 92 12 Hannah Yorkey 11 03-C Port Byron 92 |
| Girls Class D - South Lewis favored, but Beaver River is close |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 South Lewis 62 South Lewis 46
2 Beaver River 74 Beaver River 59
3 Tully 90 Tully 84
4 New York Mills 109 New York Mills 98
5 Sauquoit Valley 148 Sauquoit Valley 126
6 LaFayette 188 Utica Notre Dame 185
7 Cooperstown 233 Cooperstown 189
8 Old Forge 237 LaFayette 189
9 Utica Notre Dame 240 Cato-Meridian 274
10 Poland 292 Onondaga 292
11 Bishop Grimes 316 Weedsport 295
12 Cato-Meridian 331 Sandy Creek 306
13 Onondaga 334 Bishop Grimes 319
14 Weedsport 355 Herkimer 388
15 Sandy Creek 369
16 DeRuyter 446
17 Herkimer 459
18 Remsen 471
|
|
Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Frontier League Championship by a narrow margin (27-33) ... South Lewis is the favorite, but this race is close ... Tully has been improving recently and has closed the gap on the top two by more than expected - a bit more improvement and "less than good races" by the top two could make this interesting ... Tully is the defending champion. New York Mills beat Sauquoit Valley at the CSC Conference Championship (49-71). Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals: 1 Brooke Rauber 8 03-D Tully 135 2 Abbey Copperwheat 10 03-D New York Mills 112 3 Sarah Sharpe 10 03-D New York Mills 111 4 Hannah Ielfield 8 03-D South Lewis 109 5 Hali Ielfield 11 03-D South Lewis 107 6 Lexi Bernard 7 03-D South Lewis 103 7 Rylee Campeau 10 03-D Beaver River 102 8 Marissa Evans 9 03-D LaFayette 95 9 Alison Carr 10 03-D Tully 90 10 Taylor Moore 10 03-D Beaver River 90 11 Maggie Keady-Dooley 10 03-D Utica Notre Dame 89 12 Laura Levi 11 03-D Old Forge 85 13 Shauna Rice 10 03-D Beaver River 85 14 Lauren Laruffa 11 03-D Hamilton 82 15 Lauren Yonko 8 03-D Tully 77 |