| Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2016 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 26, 2016
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 23, 2016 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 26, 2016 |
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 26, 2016
| NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries |
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Corning the favorite |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Corning 132 (04-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 114
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 155 (03-A ) Liverpool 145
3 Saratoga 156 (02-A ) Corning 174
4 Liverpool 167 (03-A ) Watkins Glen 179
5 Ithaca 168 (04-A ) Saratoga Springs 198
6 Burnt Hills 195 (02-B ) Warwick Valley 223
7 Watkins Glen 221 (04-C ) Burnt Hills 223
8 Warwick Valley 222 (09-A ) Smithtown 229
9 Smithtown 233 (11-A ) Mount Academy 250
10 Xavier 249 (CHSAA) Ithaca 252
11 Baldwinsville 309 (03-A ) Xavier 257
12 Niskayuna 331 (02-A ) Brighton 301
13 Mount Academy 341 (09-C ) Niskayuna 329
14 Brighton 351 (05-B ) Guilderland 330
15 Guilderland 393 (02-A ) Baldwinsville 353
16 East Aurora 409 (06-B ) Maine-Endwell 408
17 Churchville 432 (05-A ) East Aurora 417
18 Maine-Endwell 483 (04-B ) Washingtonville 485
19 Washingtonville 499 (09-A ) Manhasset 490
20 FDR 501 (09-A ) Commack 518
21 Hamburg 511 (06-A ) Hamburg 544
22 Manhasset 555 (08-B ) Irondequoit 555
23 Commack 595 (11-A ) Shaker 643
24 Irondequoit 603 (05-A ) FDR 645
25 Owego 608 (04-B ) Owego 666
26 Shaker 705 (02-A ) Williamsville South 760
27 Williamsville S 716 (06-B ) Franklin Academy 788
28 Franklin Academy 770 (10-B )
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Pre-Race Analysis ... The top four teams listed above have one thing in common ... They all skipped the Federation Meet. Corning won the NY State Meet, and that makes Corning the favorite entering the New York regional ... Saratoga had an "off-race" at States and Fayetteville-Manlius could not race at States because Liverpool won the Section 3 qualifier for States (the three FM guys at States ran well) ... Ithaca could not race at States because Corning won the Section 4 qualifier ... Ithaca's off-performance at Feds was due to food poisoning to a top runner (did not run) and another guy running despite being sick. Actually, the 5 top teams listed above are not separated by that much ... all show good strength at the top two or three positions (Liverpool is very strong at the top three positions ... speed ratings of 192, 190 and 186 at States) ... The finishing positions of this race could well be determined by the performance levels of the #4 and #5 scorers. I placed Fayetteville-Manlius at the 2nd-spot above because FM seems to get the job done at this meet ... But to me, it looks wide-open overall. Individual Race ... Only one of the top 27 rated male runners in NY has opted to run Footlocker ... So this is a real NY championship for individuals with a reward for the top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN ... The overall speed rating below indicate a wide-open race for the top spot ... Looks very competitive. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Nathan Lawler 11 05-B Pittsford Mendon 190 NXN Individual 2 Noah Carey 12 02-A Guilderland 190 NXN Team 3 Christopher Tibbetts 12 11-A Sachem North 190 NXN Individual 4 Stephen Schulz 12 03-A Liverpool 190 NXN Team 5 Ty Brownlow 12 03-A Liverpool 189 NXN Team 6 Kevin Moshier 12 04-A Corning 188 NXN Team 7 Silas Derfel 11 04-A Ithaca 186 NXN Team 8 Patrick Perry 12 03-A FM 186 NXN Team 9 Davone Hernandez 12 03-A Rome 186 (at Footlocker) 10 Ryan Gallagher 12 01-C Briarcliff 185 NXN Individual 11 Samuel Morton 12 01-A Mamaroneck 185 NXN Individual 12 Jonathan Lauer 12 11-A Sachem North 184 NXN Individual 13 Josh Hickmott 12 03-A Liverpool 184 NXN Team 14 Paul Dellinger 12 05-B Brighton 183 NXN Team 15 Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 9 09-A Warwick 183 NXN Team 16 Michael Grabowski 12 11-A Smithtown 183 NXN Team 17 Declan Hines 12 02-A Saratoga 183 NXN Team 18 Kyle Fulk 12 10-D Norwood-Norfolk 183 NXN Individual 19 Dominic Morganti 12 03-C CBA 182 ----- 20 Aidan Ryan 12 AIS Trinity School 181 NXN Individual 21 Quinn Nicholson 11 04-A Corning 180 NXN Team 22 Thomas Gardiner 11 09-A Warwick 180 NXN Team 23 Jake Avery 12 04-A Ithaca 180 NXN Team 24 David Leff 12 03-A West Genesee 180 NXN Individual 25 Shea Weilbaker 10 02-A Saratoga 180 NXN Team 26 Patrick Hazlitt 12 04-C Watkins Glen 180 NXN Team 27 Noah Tindale 10 02-A Guilderland 180 NXN Team |
| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 48 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 40
2 North Rockland 112 (01-A ) Shenendehowa 110
3 Saratoga 136 (02-A ) Shoreham Wading River 127
4 Shenendehowa 137 (02-A ) North Rockland 148
5 Shoreham Wading River 157 (11-B ) Saratoga Springs 151
6 Corning 162 (04-A ) Niskayuna 205
7 Niskayuna 174 (02-A ) Corning 209
8 Webster Thomas 229 (05-A ) East Aurora 211
9 Guilderland 241 (02-A ) Webster Thomas 241
10 Warwick Valley 253 (09-A ) Liverpool 249
11 East Aurora 261 (06-B ) Sachem East 259
12 Sachem East 305 (11-A ) Elmira 262
13 Ithaca 326 (04-A ) Warwick Valley 273
14 Elmira 327 (04-A ) Guilderland 280
15 Baldwinsville 353 (03-A ) Ithaca 401
16 Manhasset 410 (08-B ) Sweet Home 406
17 Sweet Home 425 (06-B )
18 Convent Sacred Heart 460 (AIS )
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (again).
Annual Repeat - Fayetteville-Manlius has been impressive all season, and there is no reason to suspect that will change ... FM beat North Rockland and Saratoga by 30 and 58 points, respectively, at States with only nine teams in the race. North Rockland won the Federation Meet with a good performance, and is the favorite to grab the second NXN auto-qualifying spot. Saratoga did not run well at Feds ... they had a better team performance at States, and that type of performance could put them in the 3rd-place finishing position which would be important in getting an At-Large bid to NXN. Shenendehowa, Shoreham Wading River, Corning and Niskayuna are all serious contenders to finish 3rd or 4th with a good team performance ... and should North Rockland falter somewhat, five or six teams could be in the hunt for the second NXN auto-qualifying spot. Individual Race ... The top 13 overall speed-rated girls in NY are competing at NXN ... Only one girl in the list below is running at Footlocker ... 7th-grader Elizabeth Lucason (6th at Federations) has opted to run at Junior Olympics instead of NXN ... Kelsey Chmiel is the favorite entering this New York regional, but Jessica Lawson, Katherine Lee and Katelyn Tuohy are close behind. The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams ... I suspect NY will be getting at least one At-Large bid, and maybe two if the #4 finishing team runs well. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Kelsey Chmiel 10 02-A Saratoga 154 NXN Team 2 Jessica Lawson 12 04-A Corning 151 NXN Team 3 Katelyn Tuohy 9 01-A North Rockland 149 NXN Team 4 Katherine Lee 11 11-B Shoreham Wading R 148 NXN Team 5 Claire Walters 9 03-A FM 146 NXN Team 6 Amanda Vestri 12 05-A Webster Thomas 142 NXN Team 7 Sophie Ryan 11 03-A FM 141 NXN Team 8 Phoebe White 9 03-A FM 140 NXN Team 9 Sammy Watson 12 05-A Rush-Henrietta 140 NXN Individual 10 Brooke Rauber 8 03-D Tully 138 NXN Individual 11 Haleigh Morales 9 01-A North Rockland 138 NXN Team 12 Palmer Madsen 11 03-A FM 137 NXN Team 13 Hannah Reale 11 02-A Shenendehowa 135 NXN Team 14 Elizabeth Lucason 7 03-B Camden 135 (Junior Olympics) 15 Julia Zachgo 12 02-A Shenendehowa 134 NXN Team 16 Caroline Timm 11 01-B Lourdes 134 17 Olivia Elston 12 09-B Goshen 133 (at Footlocker) 18 Anna Kostarellis 12 05-A Churchville-Chili 133 NXN Individual 19 Jenna Schulz 9 03-A Liverpool 133 NXN Team 20 Jennie Prial 12 09-A Warwick 132 NXN Team 21 Rebecca Walters 11 03-A FM 132 NXN Team 22 Alex Harris 12 01-A North Rockland 132 NXN Team |