NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Corning              (04)      61        Corning                59
  2   Saratoga             (02)      62        Warwick Valley         80
  3   Liverpool            (03)      79        Liverpool              80
  4   Smithtown            (11)     100        Saratoga               86
  5   Warwick  Valley      (09)     120        Smithtown West        115
  6   Penfield             (05)     145        Penfield              148
  7   Syosset              (08)     149        Arlington             164
  8   Arlington            (01)     172        Syosset               181
  9   Frontier             (06)     183        Frontier              213
 

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Corning and Saratoga are co-favorites ... Computer simulations give each an equal probability of winning ... Saratoga has been steadily improving and looks primed to win the Class A title ... Corning has been good all season ... If the prediction was based strictly on speed ratings from the sectional races, Saratoga would be the sole favorite.

Saratoga's best team performances of the season came at their two most recent races (sectionals and Suburban Council Championships) ... both races were run at Saratoga Park where Section 2 teams often have their best performances ... The handicapper in me wonders if Saratoga can repeat those performances at Chenango Valley State Park ... Corning's handicapping advantage is Chenango Valley State Park ... It is their home sectional course, and they are very familiar with it ... That's the reason I gave Corning a one point advantage in the projected score above.

Individual Race ... This is a very good individual race ... As can be seen from the overall seasonal speed ratings below, a bunch of guys are in contention for the win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Noah Carey            12   02-A    Guilderland            190
2   Jonathan Lauer        12   11-A    Sachem North           189
3   Stephen Schulz        12   03-A    Liverpool              189
4   Christopher Tibbetts  12   11-A    Sachem North           188
5   Kevin Moshier         12   04-A    Corning                187
6   Ty Brownlow           12   03-A    Liverpool              186
7   Patrick Perry         12   03-A    FM                     185
8   Silas Derfel          11   04-A    Ithaca                 184
9   Josh Hickmott         12   03-A    Liverpool              183
10  Declan Hines          12   02-A    Saratoga               183
11  Davone Hernandez      12   03-A    Rome                   182
12  Michael Grabowski     12   11-A    Smithtown              181
13  Noah Tindale          10   02-A    Guilderland            180
14  David Leff            12   03-A    West Genesee           180
15  Shea Weilbaker        10   02-A    Saratoga               180
16  Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 9    09-A    Warwick                179
17  Majd Rouhana          11   05-A    Fairport               179
18  Payton Gleason        11   05-A    Churchville            177
19  Tyler Senall          11   05-A    Penfield               177
20  Samuel Morton         12   01-A    Mamaroneck             177

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      58        Burnt Hills            53
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)     112        Pittsford Mendon       91
  3   Somers               (01)     113        Somers                 95
  4   Manhasset            (08)     114        Miller Place          129
  5   East Aurora          (06)     118        Maine-Endwell         138
  6   Maine-Endwell        (04)     154        East Aurora           139
  7   Miller Place         (11)     163        Goshen                144
  8   Goshen               (09)     166        Manhasset             163
  9   New Hartford         (03)     193        New Hartford          198
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     239        Franklin Academy      262
  11  Peru                 (07)     322        Peru                  318

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is a very solid favorite to win the Class B race.

The race for the 2nd spot looks like a four-way toss-up between Pittsford Mendon, Somers, Manhasset and East Aurora ... Pittsford Mendon gets the "morning-line" call above because they are the defending Class B champion.

Individual Race ... Nathan Lawler (Pittsford-Mendon) is the favorite to win (he ran a very good 2nd to Noah Affolder at last year's Class B race).

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Nathan Lawler         11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       190
2   Paul Dellinger        12   05-B    Brighton               184
3   Ian Russ              11   06-B    East Aurora            181
4   Chris Hughes          11   02-B    Glens Falls            180
5   Matthew Fusco         11   01-B    Somers                 179
6   Patrick Dye           12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      178
7   Evan Brennan          10   02-B    Burnt Hills            178
8   Chris Nowak           12   06-B    Sweet Home             178
9   Matt Politis          11   01-B    Pearl River            178
10  Josh Farmer           10   03-B    New Hartford           177
11  Jack Ryan             12   11-B    Westhampton            177
12  Greg Fusco            11   01-B    Somers                 177
13  Ray Sambrotto         10   06-B    West Seneca East       176
14  Parker Stokes         10   04-B    Maine-Endwell          176
15  Matt Goyden           12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          176
16  Francisco Beltran     10   02-B    Schalmont              175
17  Tyler Berg            10   02-B    Burnt Hills            174
18  Jonah Simpson         12   05-B    Brighton               174
19  Trevor Marchhart      12   08-B    Garden City            174
20  Liam Higgins          11   09-B    Goshen                 173
21  Patrick Murray        12   06-B    East Aurora            173
22  Aidan Gillooley       10   02-B    Burnt Hills            173

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Watkins Glen         (04)      38        Watkins Glen           21
  2   Mount Academy        (09)      39        Mount Academy          51
  3   Irvington            (01)     120        Addison                92
  4   Albany Academy       (02)     121        Albany Academy        123
  5   Addison              (05)     132        Marcellus             130
  6   Marcellus            (03)     133        Irvington             131
  7   Alden                (06)     184        Alden                 195
  8   Saranac Lake         (07)     187        Saranac Lake          209
  9   Center Moriches      (11)     212        Center Moriches       238
  10  Oyster Bay           (08)     304        Oyster Bay            289
  11  Salmon River         (10)     311        Salmon River          360

  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Another race with co-favorites ... Watkins Glen and Mount Academy appear to have equal probabilities of winning this race ... At last year's Class C race, Watkins Glen and Mount Academy finished 2nd and 3rd respectively, separated by only two points ... Watkins Glen gets the advantage in the "morning-line" above because Chenango Valley State Park is their home sectional course.

Individual Race ... Ryan Gallagher (Briarcliff) is the favorite based on overall speed rating ... Patrick Hazlitt (Watkins Glen) and Dominc Morganti (CBA) are both capable of winning performances.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Ryan Gallagher        12   01-C    Briarcliff             181
2   Patrick Hazlitt       12   04-C    Watkins Glen           176
3   Dominic Morganti      12   03-C    CBA-Syracuse           174
4   Josh Walsh            12   05-C    Hornell                172
5   Daryl Blough          12   09-C    Mount Academy          170
6   CJ Militello          12   03-C    Clinton                170
7   Kent Kurtz            12   09-C    Mount Academy          168
8   Joel Graska           12   02-C    Corinth                168
9   Scottie Mitchell      12   01-C    Irvington              167
10  Gabe Stash            11   05-C    Marcus Whitman         167
11  Shawn Rutledge        12   04-C    Watkins Glen           166
12  Brendan Baird         12   09-C    Mount Academy          166
13  Matthew Kruszka       12   06-C    Gowanda                166
14  Gabe Planty           9    04-C    Watkins Glen           166
15  Josh Blazey           12   04-C    Newark Valley          165
16  Marcus O'Leary        11   02-C    Albany Acad            164
17  Alex Foyt             11   02-C    Albany Acad            164
18  Adam Vanvalkenburgh   12   03-C    Canastota              163

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      59        Maple Grove            63
  2   Elmira Notre Dame    (04)      64        Lake Placid            66
  3   Lake Placid          (07)      85        Sauquoit Valley        90
  4   Sauquoit Valley      (03)      89        Elmira Notre Dame      96
  5   Shelter Island       (11)     139        Shelter Island        151
  6   North Warren         (02)     158        Oakfield-Elba         169
  7   Haldane              (01)     170        North Warren          174
  8   Oakfield-Elba        (05)     174        Haldane               185
  9   Sullivan West        (09)     187        Sullivan West         191
  10  Tupper Lake          (10)     308        Tupper Lake           295

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This race is the most confusing race of the day in terms of a computer simulated call ... Before sectionals, Elmira Notre Dame would have been the favorite ... But Maple Grove raced exceptionally well at sectionals - five guys has seasonal speed rating PRs - that will be difficult to repeat at the State Meet.

Computer simulations take each runner's speed ratings for the entire season, derives a speed rating distribution profile and a trend profile (improving, consistent, etc) for each runner ... Those profiles are then sampled 100,000 times (via a random number generator) to produce 100,000 race results ... the 100,000 race results are compiled to determine scores and how often each team wins and by how much ... Maple Grove's improvement at sectionals gave them an advantage in the trend profiles and compiled results ... The handicapper in me wonders if Maple Grove can repeat that sectional performance at States ... Elmira Notre Dame is running on their home sectional course ... Therefore, I'm guessing this race is a toss-up ... Just a guess.

Individual Race ... Kyle Fulk (Norwood-Norfolk) has been racing very well in recent races, and enters the Class D race as the favorite ... Dylan Canarelli (Sauquoit Valley) is definitely capable of a winning performance ... Michael Peppy (Maple Grove) had his best performance at sectionals.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Kyle Fulk             12   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        182
2   Michael Peppy         11   06-D    Maple Grove            175
3   Dylan Canarelli       11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        175
4   Caleb Moore           11   07-D    Seton Catholic         171
5   Kal Lewis             9    11-D    Shelter Island         171
6   Matt Karee            12   04-D    Elmira Notre Dame      168
7   Colin Beasor          12   02-D    Greenwich              168
8   Pete Auer             9    06-D    Maple Grove            165
9   Jacob Appleton        10   05-D    Lima Christian         164
10  Connor Demo           11   03-D    Beaver River           162
11  Brandon Olden         10   02-D    North Warren           161
12  Matt Evans            11   06-D    Randolph               161
13  Ayden Gann            12   09-D    Sullivan West          161
14  Dylan Durgan          12   03-D    South Lewis            160
15  Henry Sullivan        12   06-D    Clymer-Sherman         160
16  Ryan Hanson           12   03-D    Tully                  159
17  Taylor Philpotts      11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        159
18  Dan Bort              11   03-D    Tully                  158

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      36        Fayetteville-Manlius   35
  2   Saratoga             (02)      65        North Rockland         65
  3   North Rockland       (01)      95        Saratoga Springs       93
  4   Corning              (04)     114        Monroe-Woodbury       127
  5   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     134        Corning               128
  6   Webster Thomas       (05)     149        Ward Melville         158
  7   Syosset              (08)     171        Webster Thomas        163
  8   Ward Melville        (11)     188        Syosset               171
  9   Lockport             (06)     210        Lockport              192

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top ranked team in the nation again, and they deserve it until somebody proves otherwise.

Saratoga and North Rockland are in similar positions as last year.

Individual Race ... Repeating from last year - This is a great race in terms of quality ... Likely the best girl's race of any State Class Meet in the Nation ... The top three girls in the list below are ranked 6th, 7th and 20th in the current National Flo50 Rankings on MileSplit.

Chenango Valley State Park is Jessica Lawson's home sectional course ... she is the course record holder ... It will take an exceptional performance to beat her ... But Kelsey Chmiel, Katelyn Tuohy and Claire Walters are exceptional runners.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Kelsey Chmiel         10   02-A    Saratoga               153
2   Jessica Lawson        12   04-A    Corning                152
3   Katelyn Tuohy         9    01-A    North Rockland         149
4   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     145
5   Amanda Vestri         12   05-A    Webster Thomas         142
6   Sophie Ryan           11   03-A    FM                     141
7   Palmer Madsen         11   03-A    FM                     136
8   Phoebe White          9    03-A    FM                     135
9   Julia Zachgo          12   02-A    Shenendehowa           135
10  Hannah Reale          11   02-A    Shenendehowa           135
11  Sammy Watson          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         134
12  Alex Harris           12   01-A    North Rockland         133
13  Haleigh Morales       9    01-A    North Rockland         133
14  Rebecca Walters       11   03-A    FM                     132
15  Anna Kostarellis      12   05-A    Churchville-Chili      131
16  Abigail Spiers        11   02-A    Niskayuna              129
17  Madeleine Shellard    11   05-A    Irondequoit            129
18  Jenna Schulz          9    03-A    Liverpool              129
19  Olivia Lomascolo      11   02-A    Shenendehowa           127
20  Emily Bini            9    02-A    Guilderland            126
21  Bridget Kanaley       12   11-A    Bay Shore              126
22  Jennie Prial          12   09-A    Warwick                125
23  Peyton Engborg        11   02-A    Saratoga               125
24  Taylor McClay         12   11-A    Eastport-S Mano        125

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shoreham Wading River(11)      52        Shoreham-Wading River  51
  2   East Aurora          (06)      53        John Jay Cross River   68
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)     100        East Aurora            82
  4   Cornwall             (09)     116        Burnt Hills           102
  5   John Jay Cross River (01)     130        Cornwall              133
  6   Canandaigua          (05)     165        Westhill-Ludden       153
  7   Westhill-Ludden      (03)     172        Manhasset             169
  8   Manhasset            (08)     173        Canandaigua           201
  9   Maine-Endwell        (04)     224        Maine-Endwell         210
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     258        Franklin Academy      278
  11  Peru                 (07)     318        Peru                  337

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Boys have two races with co-favorites ... Shoreham Wading River and East Aurora are co-favorites in this race.

East Aurora was missing a top runner in their sectional race (Maisy Webster); she is on the entry list for States ... Four of the East Aurora girls had seasonal speed rating PRs at sectionals to compensate for their missing runner ... If East Aurora can perform near their sectional performance level, they may be tough to beat.

Shoreham Wading River has shown an ability to place three runners ahead of East Aurora's first finisher ... a good finish by Shoreham Wading River's #5 scorer could definitely result in a team victory ... Starting the team scoring with a "1" will help Shoreham Wading River.

The placement of Shoreham Wading River on top above was decided by a coin flip.

Individual Race ... Katherine Lee (SWR) has been running exceptionally well ... she is the solid favorite to win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Katherine Lee         11   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      149
2   Olivia Elston         12   09-B    Goshen                 135
3   Caroline Timm         11   01-B    Lourdes                133
4   Eva Scott             12   02-B    Burnt Hills            132
5   Noreen Guilfoyle      11   11-B    Mount Sinai            127
6   Alexandra Hays        12   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      126
7   Elizabeth Lucason     7    03-B    Camden                 126
8   Emily Pomainville     12   10-B    Franklin Acad          125
9   Hannah Butler         12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      125
10  Maria Smith           12   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      124
11  Regina Rosati         12   02-B    South Glens Falls      123
12  Mary Borkoski         10   01-B    Pearl River            123
13  Kaylah Quarshie       12   09-B    Port Jervis            123
14  Molly McLaughlin      11   06-B    East Aurora            122
15  Maisy Webster         12   06-B    East Aurora            122
16  Samantha Law          11   08-B    Great Neck N           122
17  Ruth Segall           12   01-B    Ardsley                121
18  Payton Capes-Davis    12   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      121
19  Rory Graham           10   02-B    Burnt Hills            120

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Canton               (10)      79        Newfane                75
  2   Newfane              (06)      86        Canton                 82
  3   Bronxville           (01)      91        Bronxville             84
  4   CBA-Syracuse         (03)     108        CBA-Syracuse          122
  5   Saranac              (07)     119        Mattituck             122
  6   Mattituck            (11)     140        Newark Valley         148
  7   Waterloo             (05)     167        Saranac               161
  8   Newark Valley        (04)     181        Waterloo              182
  9   Cobleskill           (02)     211        Cobleskille           223
  10  Oyster Bay           (08)     225        Oyster Bay            232
  11  Spackenkill          (09)     225        Spackenkill           244
 
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville has won this race many times in past years ... but Bronxville does not appear to be as strong this season which opens an opportunity for other teams ... Canton is the favorite with Newfane close behind ... but do not count out Bronxville.

Individual Race ... Brianna O'Brien (Wheatley) is the favorite ... Hayleigh Palotti (Livonia) finished 3rd at States last year ... Eva Borton (Clinton) raced very well at sectionals ... If the race comes down to sprint, Kaitlin Ryan (Bronxville) will be tough to beat if she's close.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Brianna O'Brien       12   08-C    Wheatley               132
2   Hayleigh Palotti      11   05-C    Livonia                125
3   Eva Borton            10   03-C    Clinton                123
4   Grace Bessette        11   10-C    Canton                 120
5   Kaitlin Ryan          12   01-C    Bronxville             119
6   Kaylee Stone          12   04-C    Windsor                117
7   Emma Novak            12   03-C    Clinton                117
8   Meggie Hart           11   03-C    Cazenovia              115
9   Clara Rowles          10   03-C    Cazenovia              114
10  Mika Andrews          12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            113
11  Sonya Krezmien        9    06-C    Springville            110
12  Melanie Pfennig       12   11-C    Mattituck              110
13  Brittany Shumway      12   07-C    Saranac Lake           110
14  Clarissa Hensler      12   05-C    Livonia                109
15  Katelyn Huggard       11   01-C    Pawling                108
16  Sarah Golas           11   06-C    Alden                  108

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      55        Greenwich              51
  2   Greenwich            (02)      58        Maple Grove            57
  3   South Lewis          (03)      90        South Lewis            80
  4   Seton Catholic       (07)      96        Harley Allendale      109
  5   Harley-Allendale     (05)     122        Trumansburg           134
  6   Trumansburg          (04)     140        Seton Catholic        172
  7   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     195        Norwood-Norfolk       191
  8   Shelter Island       (11)     203        Haldane               205
  9   Haldane              (01)     212        Shelter Island        210
  10  Webutuck             (09)     242        Webutuck              218


		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich is the defending Class D champion ... Maple Grove finished 3rd last year ... Maple Grove has shown some major improvement in recent weeks which closed a gap behind Greenwich ... Overall, Maple Grove gets a slight advantage entering this race ... But this race looks like a toss-up.

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the favorite entering the Class D race ... Brynne Wright (Greenwich) has been racing well ... Abby Gostomski (Cattaraugus) is also racing well ... Last spring, Abby won the second division of the Steeplechase at States by dropping over 8 seconds off her PR to finish in a very good 7:00.17 (she could be a serious contender for the win).

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Brooke Rauber         8    03-D    Tully                  134
2   Brynne Wright         9    02-D    Greenwich              122
3   Abby Gostomski        11   06-D    Cattaraugus            120
4   Monica Strain         12   02-D    Maple Hill             120
5   Sydney Levison        10   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        118
6   Molly MacQueen        9    04-D    Trumansburg            116
7   Abbey Copperwheat     10   03-D    New York Mills         116
8   Chloe Weaver          12   05-D    Red Creek              115
9   Sydney Beach          12   05-D    Red Creek              112
10  Christina Peppy       8    06-D    Maple Grove            112
11  Hannah Ielfield       8    03-D    South Lewis            112
12  Madison Relyea        8    02-D    Mayfield               112
13  Ava Crist             8    06-D    Maple Grove            111
14  Gracie Auer           11   06-D    Maple Grove            111
15  Emma Cronin           9    02-D    Greenwich              111
16  Sarah Sharpe          10   03-D    New York Mills         109
17  Hali Ielfield         11   03-D    South Lewis            107
18  Bailey Gostomski      11   06-D    Cattaraugus            106
19  Lexi Bernard          7    03-D    South Lewis            106
20  Lea DeJordy           9    07-D    Seton Catholic         106
21  Elaine Atanasova      10   02-D    Duanesburg             106
22  Sofia DeJordy         10   07-D    Seton Catholic         105
23  Carling Lockwood      8    06-D    Maple Grove            103
24  Savannah DeJordy      8    07-D    Seton Catholic         103
25  Eileen Reinhardt      12   05-D    Harley-Allendale       103
26  Quinn Collins         9    02-D    Greenwich              103
27  Annabel Gregg         10   02-D    Greenwich              102