Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   35           Liverpool               32
  2   Liverpool              36           Fayetteville-Manlius    36
  3   Baldwinsville          83           Baldwinsville           96
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 120           West Genesee           118
  5   West Genesee          126           Cicero-North Syracuse  124
  6   Central Square        177           Central Square         168
  7   Syracuse West         213           Syracuse West          214
  8   Rome Free Academy     249           Syracuse East          220
  9   Syracuse East         259           Auburn                 292
  10  Auburn                263           Rome Free Academy      294
  11  Proctor               320           Proctor                298 
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are currently the top-ranked Class A teams in NY State ... Both are currently ranked nationally in the top 15 by both National Speed Ratings and the Saucony Flo50 Boys rankings ... Unfortunately, one of best teams in the entire State and Nation will not qualify for the NY State Meet since only the winning team advances to States.

FM beat Liverpool at the CNYCL League Championship (Oct 14) by 30 to 43 ... Liverpool beat FM by 209 to 228 at the Manhattan Championship race (Oct 10) ... The raw numbers give FM a one point projection edge, which means the race is even-up .... FM won impressively at the Baldwinsville Invite (same course as the CNYCL League meet) ... Liverpool beat East Aurora at the McQuaid Invitational on a tie-breaker (a tie-breaker rule that matches the tying teams in a dual meet score, rather than best 6th-man).

Looking at a handicapping factor other than speed ratings ... the Manhattan Invite at Van Cortlandt Park is a short 4K distance race ... The Van Cortlandt Park 4K course is used repeatedly during the high school season even thought Van Cotlandt Park has a real 5K Footlocker qualifying course ... McQuaid and Baldwinsville are relatively fast and easy courses (and only 3.0 and 2.93 miles in distance) ..... In contrast, the VVS sectional course is a full 5K (measured by cutting the tangents as it should be), and VVS is relatively slow with some difficulty (especially if the course is wet) ... Therefore, a proven ability to perform well on the VVS course is a handicapping plus ... Last year, FM performed better than Liverpool at VVS ... Will that happen again this year??

Baldwinsville, CNS and West Genesee are projected similar to their finish at the CNYCL League meet.

Individual Race ...Ben Petrella (Liverpool) is the top-ranked Class A runner in Section 3 with Peter Ryan (FM) second ... Actually, 9 of the top 12 Class A runners are from either FM or Liverpool ... Andrew Bearkland (CNS), David Leff (West Genesee) and Sean Kuehn (Central Square) will be looking to qualify as individuals ... The top five individuals, not on the winning team, qualify as individuals for the State Meet.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Ben Petrella          12   03-A    Liverpool              190
2   Peter Ryan            12   03-A    FM                     185
3   Patrick Perry         11   03-A    FM                     182
4   Bryan Geehrer         12   03-A    FM                     181
5   Ty Brownlow           11   03-A    Liverpool              181
6   Andrew Bearkland      12   03-A    CNS                    179
7   David Leff            11   03-A    West Genesee           178
8   Sean Kuehn            12   03-A    Central Square         176
9   Stevie Schulz         11   03-A    Liverpool              176
10  Terrell Coleman       12   03-A    Liverpool              175
11  Joe Walters           11   03-A    FM                     174
12  Ryan Comstock         12   03-A    Liverpool              172
13  Ryan Delola           12   03-A    Baldwinsville          172
14  Ben Otis              10   03-A    FM                     170

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   Carthage               58           New Hartford            93
  2   New Hartford          110           Carthage               104
  3   Westhill-Ludden       143           Westhill-Ludden        150
  4   Cortland              187           East Syracuse-Minoa    155
  5   East Syracuse-Minoa   187           Cortland               164
  6   Chittenango           195           Fulton                 203
  7   Jamesville Dewitt     214           Whitesboro             210
  8   Fulton                223           Homer                  213
  9   Homer                 228           Jamesville-Dewitt      219
  10  Whitesboro            242           Chittenango            221
  11  Phoenix               264           Camden                 270
  12  Camden                278           VVS                    284
  13  VVS                   312           Phoenix                289
  14  Oneida                325           Oswego                 363
  15  Oswego                363           Oneida                 394
  16  Indian River          421           Indian River           406
  17  Mexico                454           Mexico                 436
  18  Watertown             522           Watertown              445
  19  Central Valley        574

Pre-Race Analysis ... Carthage is the defending Class B champion in Section 3 ... Carthage has a very solid one-two punch from Noah and Sam Affolder ... They won the Frontier League meet handily and then won a division of the Bernard Adirondack Invite without Noah Affolder.

New Hartford has been running well this season ... They won the TVL League Championship over Whitesboro (40-66).

Westhill-Ludden was Class C last year, and moved up to Class B ... They finished 2nd to Marcellus (this year's Class C favorite) at the OHSL Liberty meet.

Individual Race ... Noah Affolder (Carthage) is the top-rated runner in NY State (all classes) and is the solid favorite to win this race ..Sam Affolder (Carthage) is a solid choice to finish 2nd ... A number of runners are contenders to qualify as individuals which includes Matthew Young (ESM), Mike Chapeling (Chittenango), Garnet Remillard (Westhill), Josh Farmer (New Hartford) and others.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Noah Affolder         11   03-B    Carthage               195
2   Sam Affolder          9    03-B    Carthage               182
3   Matthew Young         12   03-B    ESM                    173
4   Mike Capeling         11   03-B    Chittenango            172
5   Garnet Remillard      12   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        167
6   Josh Farmer           9    03-B    New Hartford           167
7   Andrew Boyce          12   03-B    Cortland               166
8   Jared Henry           11   03-B    ESM                    163
9   Ryan Humphrey         12   03-B    Whitesboro             161
10  Brian Lamonica        11   03-B    Carthage               158
11  Evan Ulrich           12   03-B    Homer                  156
12  Dakota Corney         12   03-B    Oneida                 155
13  Nick Berg             8    03-B    ESM                    155
14  Kenneth Deloff        11   03-B    Fulton                 155
15  Forest Stewert        12   03-B    Cortland               153
16  Nolan Durr            12   03-B    New Hartford           153

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Marcellus              67           Marcellus               67
  2   Adirondack             78           Adirondack              82
  3   Holland Patent        130           Clinton                117
  4   Hannibal              133           Hannibal               119
  5   Jordan-Elbridge       162           Holland Patent         119
  6   Clinton               171           Jordan-Elbridge        173
  7   APW                   191           CBA                    196
  8   CBA                   208           Cazenovia              239
  9   Cazenovia             223           Skaneateles            248
  10  Port Byron            230           Port Byron             263
  11  Skaneateles           253           Pulaski                280
  12  South Jefferson       256           South Jefferson        284
  13  Canastota             370           APW                    288
  14  Solvay                412           Canastota              398
  15  Little Falls          440           Solvay                 423
  16  Sherburne-Earl        466           Sherburne-Earl         477
                                          Little Falls           502

Pre-Race Analysis ... Marcellus finished 3rd in the Class B race last year and drops to Class C this season ... Marcellus won the OHSL Liberty meet handily.

Adirondack beat Holland Patent at the CSC Conference Championship (54-92) ... Adirondack lost to Carthage (the Class B favorite) by only two points at the Adirondack Invite (but Carthage ran without Noah Affolder) ... Marcellus is the favorite by the numbers, but Adirondack is well within striking distance and could definitely win with a good team performance.

Individual Race ... Jason McFarland (Hannibal) is the top-rated Class C runner but it is very close with Dominic Morganti (CBA),  Ryan O'Rourke (Adirondack) and Adam Vanvalkenburgh (Canastota) ... This is the closest individual race of the day.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Jason McFarland       12   03-C    Hannibal               176
2   Dominic Morganti      11   03-C    CBA                    175
3   Ryan O'Rourke         12   03-C    Adirondack             175
4   Adam Vanvalkenburgh   11   03-C    Canastota              174
5   Patrick McGuane       12   03-C    Marcellus              164
6   Stone Lutz            10   03-C    Adirondack             158
7   Christopher Celecki   11   03-C    Holland Patent         158
8   Hunter Brunelle       10   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        154
9   Connor Ludwin         12   03-C    Holland Patent         153
10  Joseph Riccardi       10   03-C    Marcellus              153
11  Tanner Ludwin         10   03-C    Holland Patent         152
12  Derek Spann           12   03-C    Adirondack             151
13  Andrew Ford           10   03-C    Clinton                150
14  Ethan Mosure          10   03-C    Marcellus              150

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Sauquoit Valley        64           Sauquoit Valley         34
  2   Beaver River           83           Tully                   79
  3   Tully                  93           Beaver River           107
  4   Oriskany              198           Oriskany               175
  5   Utica Notre Dame      202           South Lewis            187
  6   New York Mills        214           Utica Notre Dame       193
  7   South Lewis           226           New York Mills         217
  8   Cato-Meridian         270           Cooperstown            238
  9   LaFayette             291           Cato-Meridian          268
  10  Pulaski               294           LaFayette              278
  11  Sandy Creek           323           Sandy Creek            330
  12  Cooperstown           325           Onondaga               345
  13  DeRuyter              400           Weedsport              393
  14  Onondaga              403           Fabius-Pompey          397
  15  Weedsport             412           Blessed Virgin Mary    408
  16  West Canada           419           Remsen                 418
  17  Blessed Virgin Mary   437           Hamilton               431
  18  Westmoreland          444           West Canada Valley     450
  19  Fabius-Pompey         457           Westmoreland           453
  20  Remsen                484           Manlius Pebble Hill    469
  21  Dolgeville            497           Herkimer               555
  22  Hamilton              557
  23  MPH                   595
  24  Poland                656
  25  Herkimer              658
  21  Poland                545

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley beat Adirondack (one of the Class C favorites) by 50-54 at the CSC Championships ... Sauquoit Valley lost to Queensbury (Class B in Section 2) by only 46-50 in last week's Harvest Classic, and Sauquoit Valley was missing their #2 finisher from the CSC meet.

Beaver River finished 2nd to Carthage (the Class B favorite) at the Frontier League meet ... Tully edged Beaver River at the Tully Invitational ... But Beaver River won their division of the Adirondack Invite and beat Tully (132-208) in the merged results.

Individual Race ... Connor Oakman (Lafayette) is the top-rated Class D runner once again ... Could be a good race to determine the 5 individual qualifiers for States.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Connor Oakman         12   03-D    LaFayette              171
2   Dylan Canarelli       10   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        164
3   Connor Demo           10   03-D    Beaver River           160
4   Grant Domagala        12   03-D    South Lewis            157
5   Devin Murphy          12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        156
6   Sam Sharlow           10   03-D    Oriskany               155
7   Chris Larson          11   03-D    Bishop Grimes          154
8   Dylan Durgan          11   03-D    South Lewis            154
9   Daniel Bort           10   03-D    Tully                  152
10  Jason Phelps          11   03-D    Tully                  152
11  Austin Cady           12   03-D    New York Mills         152
12  Joseph Phillips       12   03-D    Cato-Meridian          152
13  Taylor Philpotts      10   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        151
14  Ryan Hanson           11   03-D    Tully                  150

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   18           Fayetteville-Manlius   19
  2   West Genesee           90           West Genesee           76
  3   Liverpool              91           Liverpool              87
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 110           Baldwinsville         104
  5   Baldwinsville         117           Cicero-North Syracuse 122
  6   Rome Free Academy     149           Rome Free Academy     151
  7   Central Square        177           Central Square        193
  8   Auburn                228           Syracuse West         246
  9   Syracuse West         277           Proctor               275
  10  Proctor               306           Syracuse East         283
  11  Syracuse East         308
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius scored a perfect 15 in four of the last eight years at sectionals (but not in the last two years) ... Carly Benson (West Genesee) is likely to disrupted the perfect score by finishing in the top five.

Fayetteville-Manlius is the top ranked team in the nation ... FM performed very nicely at the Manhattan Invite and CNYCL League meet, and posted some very impressive numbers ... But for national rankings, I have concerns with the Manhattan Invite due to its short distance of only 4K ... The sectional race at VVS should give a good indication of how FM rates on a tough course at this point in the season ... The Class A race at States will be loaded with excellent teams and runners from around the State, and the Monroe-Woodbury course will be a major test for all NY teams.

Once again, West Genesee and Liverpool are not separated by much for the runner-up spot (potential implication for a Federation "at-large" bid).

Individual Race ... Kaitlyn Neal (FM), Claire Walters (FM) and Carly Benson (West Genesee)  are the top-rated runners in Section 3 ... Eleven of the top 15 runners are from FM (and at sectionals, 10 runners from each school are allowed to compete) ... Juliana Basla (Liverpool), Marian Draper (RFA), and Justus Holden-Betts (Baldwinsville) will be looking to qualify as individuals  ... The top five individuals, not on the winning team, qualify as individuals for the State Meet.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Kaitlyn Neal          12   03-A    FM                     148
2   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     139
3   Carly Benson          10   03-A    West Genesee           139
4   Sophia Ryan           10   03-A    FM                     139
5   Palmer Madsen         10   03-A    FM                     137
6   Rebecca Walters       10   03-A    FM                     133
7   Samantha Levy         12   03-A    FM                     133
8   Jenna Farrell         12   03-A    FM                     129
9   Juliana Basla         12   03-A    Liverpool              125
10  Marian Draper         10   03-A    Rome                   119
11  Megan Menz            12   03-A    FM                     118
12  Phoebe White          8    03-A    FM                     114
13  Justus Holden-Betts   9    03-A    Baldwinsville          112
14  Reilly Madsen         11   03-A    FM                     112
15  Christy Berge'        11   03-A    FM                     111
16  Moriah Humiston       10   03-A    Rome                   109
17  Morgan Chewning-Kulick12   03-A    Liverpool              109
18  Maria Matkoski        12   03-A    West Genesee           108

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      60           Westhill-Ludden        55
  2   Westhill-Ludden        65           Jamesville-Dewitt      61
  3   New Hartford          115           New Hartford           94
  4   Whitesboro            131           Whitesboro            106
  5   East Syracuse-Minoa   169           East Syracuse-Minoa   148
  6   Homer                 199           Homer                 179
  7   Central Valley        209           Central Valley        190
  8   Camden                218           VVS                   227
  9   Carthage              241           Chittenango           243
  10  Chittenango           243           Carthage              265
  11  VVS                   269           Watertown             292
  12  Phoenix               303           Cortland              311
  13  Watertown             310           Phoenix               333
  14  Cortland              377           Oneida                396
  15  Oneida                396           Indian River          462
  16  Indian River          478
  
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the defending Class B champion and they won the OHSL Freedom meet handily ... Westhill-Ludden was the Class C champion last year, but moved up to Class B ... They won the OHSL Liberty meet handily.

Jamesville-Dewitt and Westhill-Ludden both raced at the Manhattan Invitational, but in different varsity races ... Westhill-Ludden had a very slight edge in average team time (16:31 to 16:33) ... This Class B race is effectively a toss-up.

New Hartford recently finished 2nd at the TVL League Championship (3 points behind Rome Free and only 5 points ahead of Whitesboro).

Individual Race ... Class B has several closely-rated runners at the top including Natalie Marra (ESM), Hannah Butler (Jamesville-Dewitt) and Justyna Wilkinson (Whitesboro) ... Natalie Marra (ESM) is the favorite entering the race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Natalie Marra         12   03-B    ESM                    128
2   Hannah Butler         11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      124
3   Justyna Wilkinson     12   03-B    Whitesboro             124
4   Genny Corcoran        12   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        116
5   Chyanna Bernier       12   03-B    Central Valley         111
6   Morgan Lucason        8    03-B    Camden                 110
7   Alaina Kenny          10   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        105
8   Sophia Vinciguerra    9    03-B    Jamesville-Dewitt      103
9   McKayla Crawford      12   03-B    Homer                  103
10  Juliet Hull           12   03-B    New Hartford           102
11  Megan Brown           10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      97
12  Haylei Coolican       9    03-B    Westhill-Ludden        91
13  Marissa Welsh         12   03-B    Camden                 90
14  Liz Haddad            10   03-B    New Hartford           86
15  Maura McAnaney        10   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        85

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Cazenovia              76           Cazenovia              56
  2   Jordan-Elbridge        81           Jordan-Elbridge        59
  3   Hannibal               96           Clinton                88
  4   Clinton                97           Hannibal               90
  5   Skaneateles           113           Skaneateles           109
  6   Port Byron            149           Port Byron            146
  7   South Jefferson       182           South Jefferson       155
  8   Marcellus             209           Marcellus             209
  9   Canastota             223           Holland Patent        235
  10  APW                   239           Little Falls          261
  11  Holland Patent        276
  12  Little Falls          277

							

Pre-Race Analysis ... This race has some uncertainty and requires some "guessing" at the top end ... The seasonal speed ratings initially gave Jordan-Elbridge the edge over Cazenovia ... However, Cazenovia beat Jordan-Elbridge (60-82) at the OHSL Liberty Championships ... At OHSL, Jordan-Elbridge was missing one of their scorers (Mary Dristle) who subsequently ran at the Marathon Invite (and had an off performance) ... So the Cazenovia and Jordan-Elbridge scores above involve a "guess".

Individual Race ... Abby Gugel won the OHSL Liberty race handily (she finished 3rd at States (Class C) last year) ... Maggie Hart (Cazenovia) has been running well and Clara Rowles (Cazenovia) is improving.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Abby Gugel            12   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        126
2   Meggie Hart           10   03-C    Cazenovia              120
3   Clara Rowles          9    03-C    Cazenovia              113
4   Julia Willcox         11   03-C    Skaneateles            109
5   Gab Dewhurst          11   03-C    Clinton                106
6   Emma Novak            11   03-C    Clinton                98
7   Theresa Dristle       10   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        98
8   Eva Borton            9    03-C    Clinton                98
9   Brianna Karboski      11   03-C    APW                    94
10  Lucy Person           10   03-C    CBA                    90
11  Reilly Harris         10   03-C    Hannibal               88

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  48           Tully                  43
  2   Beaver River           74           Beaver River           64
  3   Sauquoit Valley       119           New York Mills         96
  4   New York Mills        123           Sauquoit Valley       110
  5   South Lewis           151           South Lewis           138
  6   Old Forge             211           Cooperstown           188
  7   Hamilton              229           Hamilton              199
  8   Cooperstown           245           Utica Notre Dame      238
  9   Utica Notre Dame      288           Onondaga              265
  10  LaFayette             310           Fabius-Pompey         305
  11  Onondaga              318           LaFayette             320
  12  Fabius-Pompey         333           Sandy Creek           322
  13  Pulaski               354           Cato-Meridian         322
  14  Poland                361           Herkimer              364
  15  Cato-Meridian         376           DeRuyter              384
  16  MPH                   376
  17  Sandy Creek           396
  18  Herkimer              472
  19  DeRuyter              497
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the two-time defending NY State Class D champion ... Tully enters this Class D race as the favorite ... Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship meet and beat Beaver River at the Tully Invitational (however, Beaver River did not have their best race at Tully).

Beaver River handily won the Frontier League Championship and won their division at the recent Adirondack Invitational.

Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Conference Championship meet beating New York Mills (59-62).

Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title ... 7th-Grader Brooke Rauber (Tully) has surprised many viewers with her speed and stamina ...  Ashleigh Crawford (Tully) is recovering from some mid-season sickness.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Sage Hurta            12   03-D    Hamilton               142
2   Brooke Rauber         7    03-D    Tully                  131
3   Ashleigh Crawford     12   03-D    Tully                  118
4   Sarah Sharpe          9    03-D    New York Mills         107
5   Heidi Edmonds         10   03-D    Cooperstown            104
6   Ellen Jaworski        12   03-D    Tully                  102
7   Taylor Moore          9    03-D    Beaver River           100
8   Kristin Ratliff       12   03-D    Cooperstown            99
9   Marissa Jones         12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        99
10  Christina Platt       12   03-D    South Lewis            96
11  Laura Levi            10   03-D    Old Forge              95
12  Siara Clos            12   03-D    Onondaga               95
13  Shauna Rice           9    03-D    Beaver River           90
14  Madison Randall       9    03-D    Sauquoit Valley        89