Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
==================== ======= ======= ===================== =====
1 Liverpool 110 (03-A ) Liverpool 77
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 120 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 107
3 East Aurora 139 (06-C ) East Aurora 109
4 Pittsford Mendon 159 (05-B ) St. Anthony's 146
5 St. Anthony's 161 (CHSAA) Xavier 153
6 Xavier 163 (CHSAA) Pittsford Mendon 175
7 Corning 175 (04-A ) Guilderland 209
8 Saratoga 251 (02-A ) Maine-Endwell 241
9 Maine-Endwell 291 (04-B ) Mount Academy 247
10 Guilderland 292 (02-A ) Corning 260
11 Ithaca 298 (04-A ) Arlington 270
12 Arlington 302 (01-A ) Ithace 284
13 Mount Academy 357 (09-C ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 308
14 Honeoye Falls-Lima 374 (05-B ) Sachem East 408
15 Sachem East 385 (11-A ) Baldwinsville 421
16 Baldwinsville 422 (03-A ) Somers 432
17 Northport 481 (11-A ) Northport 466
18 Syosset 483 (08-A ) Manhasset 497
19 Somers 501 (01-B ) Webster Thomas 513
20 Webster Thomas 510 (05-A ) Commack 567
21 Commack 529 (11-A ) Queensbury 581
22 Queensbury 567 (02-B ) Elmira 611
23 Suffern 591 (01-A ) Franklin Academy 669
24 Manhasset 609 (08-B ) Ward Melville 674
25 Elmira District 658 (04-A ) Syosset 696
26 Franklin Academy 668 (10-B ) Suffern 699
27 Ward Melville 681 (11-A ) Williamsville South 791
28 Williamsville South 819 (06-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius, Liverpool, East Aurora and
Pittsford Mendon skipped the NY Federation Meet ...
St. Anthony's
and Xavier had a great competition at Federations with St.
Anthony's winning by only 2 points (and 3rd-place Guilderland
was 127 points back) ... I suspect the week off will help the teams that
skipped Feds, but that remains to be seen
.
Liverpool edged FM at the sectional championship meet by 4 points and went on to win the State Class A race convincingly ... Liverpool also beat FM at Manhattan, but lost to FM at their league championship meet ... Both teams rate very close, but the edge goes to Liverpool entering the race.
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to
NXN the last seven years! ... Despite losing the sectional race,
FM had three runners qualify for States as individuals ... two of
the runners dropped-out of the State meet (Peter Ryan and Joe Walters)
after sensing discomfort to some existing minor injuries ... How that
plays outs in the NXN regional race remains to be seen.
Liverpool and FM are the two favorites for the auto-qualifying spots ... BUT East Aurora, St. Anthony's, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon are not that far behind ... One or two PR performances at the right positions could put any of those teams into contention.
East Aurora gets a slight advantage over the others when looking at best speed ratings over the season ... East Aurora did not over-extend themselves at sectionals due to slow muddy conditions ... East Aurora won comfortably at States on the difficult Monroe-Woodbury course which is not conducive to great speed team ratings, and they finished 2nd to Liverpool in the State Meet merge (ahead of Pittsford Mendon and Corning) .... and Remember - East Aurora and Liverpool tied in their head-to-head race at McQuaid with Liverpool getting the trophy based on a "Jesuit" tie-breaking rule even though East Aurora had the best 6th-man ... I give East Aurora a real legitimate chance of winning an auto-qualifying spot.
I wonder how much the Federation effort of
St. Anthony and Xavier will effect this race?? ... it
remains to be seen.
Number-wise, not much separates St. Anthony, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon ... and those numbers do put them within striking distance of the top teams.
Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last four years - It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as a primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... I suspect that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.
It should also be noted that the
NXN Northeast regional is being run at Bowdoin Park the same day
(as normal) ... Hypothetically
,
let's assume that a "power-merge" is done by some committee with the top
6-8 teams from the NY and NE regions to compare strengths, especially
for the teams that finished 3rd and 4th in the actual races ... Let's
hope the NY teams do well.
Individual Race ... Although 4 of the top 10 NY guys are racing at Footlocker Northeast, this could be a very good battle between Ben Petrella, Aidan Tooker, Kenny Vasbinder and others ... The challenging State Meet course at Monroe-Woodbury was good to Ben Petrella ... Aidan Tooker had an excellent performance on this course (Bowdoin Park) last week at Federations.
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Ben Petrella 12 03-A Liverpool 194 NXN Team 2 Aidan Tooker 12 02-A Saratoga 193 NXN Team 3 Noah Affolder 11 03-B Carthage 192 (at Footlocker) 4 Conor Lundy 12 CHS Fordham Prep 190 (at Footlocker) 5 Kenny Vasbinder 12 06-C East Aurora 190 NXN Team 6 Noah Carey 11 02-A Guilderland 189 NXN Team 7 Donny Glavin 12 05-A McQuaid 189 NXN Individual 8 Nathan Lawler 10 05-B Pittsford Mendon 188 NXN Team 9 Dan Schaffer 12 04-B Maine-Endwell 187 NXN Team 10 Eion Nohilly 12 01-B John Jay CR 187 (at Footlocker) 11 Jonathan Lauer 11 11-A Sachem North 185 NXN Individual 12 Peter Ryan 12 03-A FM 184 NXN Team 13 Peter Rindfuss 12 06-B Hamburg 184 NXN Individual 14 Jake Johnson 12 02-A Colonie 184 NXN Individual 15 Christopher Tibbetts 11 11-A Sachem North 184 NXN Individual 16 Paul Dellinger 11 05-B Brighton 184 ----- 17 Ty Brownlow 11 03-A Liverpool 183 NXN Team 18 Patrick Perry 11 03-A FM 183 NXN Team 19 Frederick Buckholtz 12 CHS St. Anthonys 182 NXN Team 20 Sam Affolder 9 03-B Carthage 182 ----- 21 David Leff 11 03-A West Genesee 182 (at Footlocker) 22 Stevie Schulz 11 03-A Liverpool 182 NXN Team 23 Paul Nichols 12 02-A Shaker 182 NXN Individual 24 Matt Adolph 12 09-A Warwick 182 ----- 25 Ryan Kutch 12 CHS St. Anthonys 182 NXN Team 26 Kevin Hazelwood 12 01-B Brewster 181 NXN Individual 27 Ryan Dearie 12 CHS St. Anthonys 181 NXN Team 28 Jake Avery 11 04-A Ithaca 181 NXN Team 29 Connor Doran 11 06-A Lockport 181 NXN Individual 30 Christian Raslowsky 12 CHS Xavier 180 NXN Team 31 Peter Kane 12 04-A Corning 180 NXN Team
... Shenendehowa ran very nicely at the McQuaid Invitational
where they beat Centreville Ohio and East Aurora by
75-81-96 ... Centreville won the NXN Midwest regional ... Should
Shenendehowa finish 3rd, they will likely be an "At-Large"
selection since they beat a regional winner in a major invitational ...
BUT Shenendehowa has not raced as well since McQuaid ... They
finished 7th at Federations, but I doubt that was an all-out effort ...
If Shenendehowa races as well as they did at McQuaid, they will
likely be 3rd unless one of the top two falter ... If this was a betting
race, I'm not sure what I would do with Shenendehowa.