NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Liverpool            (03)      49        Liverpool              61
  2   Saratoga             (02)      81        Corning                80
  3   Corning              (04)      83        Arlington             103
  4   Warwick              (09)     133        Saratoga              122
  5   McQuaid Jesuit       (05)     134        Warwick Valley        127
  6   Arlington            (01)     140        Sachem East           129
  7   Orchard Park         (06)     144        Orchard Park          130
  8   Sachem East          (11)     161        McQuaid Jesuit        144
  9   Calhoun              (08)     175        Calhoun               230
 

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Liverpool is the favorite in the Class A race after beating Fayetteville-Manlius by 4 points at sectionals ... Liverpool ran "all-out" at sectionals, so it will be interesting to see how they perform on the Monroe-Woodbury course a week later.

General Note for All Races ... If the Pre-State Invitational at Monroe-Woodbury is any indication, the challenge of the course itself will be a major factor at States ... The demands of the course could change team performances for either good or bad ... I expect a few teams will have major swings in performance (but that remains to be seen).

Saratoga has been showing improvement, and gets them a slight edge over Corning.

Repeating from last year (because I keep getting inquiries) ... Several out-of-State coaches have asked about the qualifying procedure for this meet ... "Why only 9 teams in a State Championship race??" (Answer - 2 of the 11 sections have no Class A teams, so that leaves only 9) ... "Why just the winning team in each class??" (Answer - the NYSPHSAA Meet is technically an "Intersectional Championship" ... A number of years ago, I over-heard a reporter having an argument with several of the sectional coordinators about excluding top teams ... the sectional coordinators made it clear that it was an "Intersectional" meet ... one coordinator pointed to another coordinator and said "It's my best against his best" in a gladiator tone of voice.

Individual Race ... This is a quality individual race ... Aidan Tooker and Ben Petrella are both racing in excellent form ... a bunch of guys are not that far behind ... Should be very interesting to see how this race plays out in terms of tactics.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Aidan Tooker          12   02-A    Saratoga               193
2   Ben Petrella          12   03-A    Liverpool              193
3   Noah Carey            11   02-A    Guilderland            189
4   Donny Glavin          12   05-A    McQuaid                188
5   Jake Johnson          12   02-A    Colonie                186
6   Jonathan Lauer        11   11-A    Sachem North           185
7   Peter Ryan            12   03-A    FM                     184
8   Patrick Perry         11   03-A    FM                     183
9   Christopher Tibbetts  11   11-A    Sachem North           182
10  Ty Brownlow           11   03-A    Liverpool              182
11  Jake Avery            11   04-A    Ithaca                 182
12  Elias Platanias       12   08-A    Calhoun                181
13  Matt Adolph           12   09-A    Warwick                181
14  David Leff            11   03-A    West Genesee           180
15  Chris Biondi          12   09-A    Pine Bush              180
16  Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 8    09-A    Minisink Valley        180
17  Paul Nichols          12   02-A    Shaker                 180
18  Bryan Geehrer         12   03-A    FM                     179 (not racing)
19  Stevie Schulz         11   03-A    Liverpool              179
20  Thorr Trowbridge      12   09-A    Kingston               179
21  Connor Doran          11   06-A    Lockport               179
22  Brian Bates           12   04-A    Corning                179

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      33        Pittsford Mendon       43
  2   Maine-Endwell        (04)      79        Maine-Endwell          54
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)      89        Burnt Hills            97
  4   Pearl River          (01)     132        Cornwall              107
  5   Cornwall             (09)     138        East Hampton          139
  6   Sweet Home           (06)     162        Pearl River           146
  7   Manhasset            (08)     175        Sweet Home            198
  8   East Hampton         (11)     189        Manhasset             199
  9   Franklin Academy     (10)     220        New Hartford          204
  10  New Hartford         (03)     234        Franklin Academy      224
  11  Peru                 (07)     289        Peru                  311

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pittsford Mendon is the defending State Class B champion and the favorite to win again ... Pittsford Mendon was 2nd in the all-class speed rating merge of all sectional results from last week (behind Liverpool and ahead of Saratoga and East Aurora).

Maine-Endwell and Burnt Hills are not far apart for the 2nd spot.

Individual Race ... Noah Affolder (Carthage) is undefeated this season ... he won the Championship race at Manhattan and set a course record at McQuaid, and that makes Noah Affolder the solid favorite to win (he jogged the last part of his race at sectionals) ... However, this Class B race has some very good runners ... Dan Schaffer and improving Nathan Lawler and  could make this race interesting ... they will be challenged by a bunch of talented runners including Peter Rindfuss, Eion Nohilly, Sam Affloder, Kevin Hazelwood and others.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Noah Affolder         11   03-B    Carthage               193
2   Nathan Lawler         10   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       188
3   Dan Schaffer          12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          187
4   Peter Rindfuss        12   06-B    Hamburg                185
5   Eion Nohilly          12   01-B    John Jay CR            183
6   Sam Affolder          9    03-B    Carthage               181
7   Kevin Hazelwood       12   01-B    Brewster               181
8   Paul Dellinger        11   05-B    Brighton               180
9   Isaac Goodman         12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       180
10  Erik Engstrom         12   11-B    East Hampton           179
11  Jackson Tate          12   05-B    Honeoye FL             178
12  Caleb Covell          12   05-B    Eastridge              178
13  Chris Nowak           11   06-B    Sweet Home             177
14  Griffin Hess          12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       175
15  Kevin Gideon          12   02-B    Burnt Hills            175
16  Ethan Carey           11   02-B    Queensbury             175
17  Luke Robbins          12   05-B    Pittsford Suth         174
18  Mitchell Marlow       12   10-B    Franklin Acad          173
19  Henry Burton          12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       173
20  Matthew Young         12   03-B    East Syracuse-Minoa    173
21  Grayson Hoteling      12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          172
22  Ryan Scanlon          12   11-B    Harborfields           172
23  Liam Lyle             11   05-B    Honeoye FL             172

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      25        East Aurora            36
  2   Mount Academy        (09)      65        Watkins Glen           89
  3   Pleasantville        (01)      96        Mount Academy          91
  4   Watkins Glen         (04)     101        Pleasantville          95
  5   Marcellus            (03)     163        Marcellus             151
  6   Glens Falls          (02)     179        Southampton           170
  7   Southampton          (11)     181        Glens Falls           174
  8   Saranac              (07)     227        Oyster Bay            220
  9   Bath-Haverling       (05)     229        Saranac               221
  10  Oyster Bay           (08)     245        Bath-Haverling        231
  11  Salmon River         (10)     281        Salmon River          317

  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora, Mount Academy and Pleasantville were projected to finish 1-2-3 last year and that's how they finished ... This year looks the same, but East Aurora has a larger gap on the other two this season ... East  Aurora is nationally ranked with a legitimate chance to win a berth to NXN Nationals.

Watkins Glen could finish in the top three ...  they were ahead of Pleasantville in the sectional speed rating merge for Class C.

Individual Race ... Kenny Vasbinder is the solid choice to win the individual title (he ran only fast enough to win handily in the muddy conditions at Section 6 sectionals) ... A whole bunch of guys could challenge for the 2nd spot.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Kenny Vasbinder       12   06-C    East Aurora            188
2   Jason McFarland       12   03-C    Hannibal               179
3   Sean McAneny          12   02-C    Greenville             177
4   Drew Dorflinger       12   01-C    Pleasantville          175
5   Dominic Morganti      11   03-C    CBA-Syracuse           175
6   TJ Murray             12   06-C    East Aurora            175
7   Luke Carmosino        10   01-C    Irvington              175
8   Matt McLaughlin       12   06-C    East Aurora            175
9   Ryan O'Rourke         12   03-C    Adirondack             174
10  Alex Tosi             12   08-C    Oyster Bay             174
11  Luke Sutton           12   04-C    Susquehanna Val        174
12  Ryan Gallagher        11   01-C    Briarcliff             174
13  Ian Russ              10   06-C    East Aurora            174
14  Kevin McMorrow        12   09-C    Dover                  173
15  Adam Vanvalkenburgh   11   03-C    Canastota              173
16  Owen Barber           12   06-C    Allegany-Limestone     173
17  Patrick Hazlitt       11   04-C    Watkins Glen           171
18  Sean Ryan             12   01-C    Bronxville             170
19  Liam Neary            12   09-C    James O'Neill          170
20  Martin Kurtz          12   09-C    Mount Academy          168
21  Chris Hughes          10   02-C    Glens Falls            168
22  Baxter Wareham        12   09-C    Mount Academy          168
23  Will Zink             12   06-C    East Aurora            168
24  Patrick Murray        11   06-C    East Aurora            168

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Lake Placid          (07)      56        Lake Placid            37
  2   Maple Grove          (06)      62        Maple Grove            61
  3   Sauquoit Valley      (03)      63        Sauquoit Valley        79
  4   Haldane              (01)     115        Elmira Notre Dame     124
  5   Addison              (05)     120        Haldane               136
  6   Elmira Notre Dame    (04)     140        Addison               150
  7   Maple Hill           (02)     167        Shelter Island        153
  8   Shelter Island       (11)     180        Maple Hill            180
  9   Tupper Lake          (10)     265        Seward                262
  10  Seward               (09)     277        Tupper Lake           279

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This could be a very competitive race for the win between Lake Placid, Maple Grove and Sauquoit Valley ... all three win significant percentages of computer race simulations with Lake Placid getting a slight advantage ... Based on speed ratings at sectionals, Lake Placid also has an advantage ... But this race is close enough to depend on the performance of just a few individuals.

Individual Race ... Appears to be a competitive race for the Class D individual title ... Dawson Bathgate has been very good all season ... Kyle Fulk, Adam Saucier, Alex Hogue and Jon Gay have also been good and are definitely within striking distance ... Could be a good competitive race for the win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Dawson Bathgate       12   05-D    East Rochester         182
2   Kyle Fulk             11   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        178
3   Alex Hogue            12   05-D    Wheatland-Chili        176
4   Adam Saucier          11   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        176
5   Jon Gay               12   07-D    Westport               174
6   Connor Oakman         12   03-D    LaFayette              170
7   Evan Whittaker        10   04-D    Trumansburg            170
8   Caleb Moore           10   07-D    Seton Catholic         169
9   Declan Kottmeier      12   04-D    Delhi                  169
10  Ryan Hetrick          12   06-D    Maple Grove            167
11  Chaz Agen             12   10-D    Potsdam                167
12  Karl Schulz           12   07-D    Lake Placid            166
13  Theo Henderson        12   01-D    Haldane                164
14  Henry McGrew          11   07-D    Lake Placid            164
15  Dylan Canarelli       10   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        163
16  Henry Sullivan        11   06-D    Sherman                162
17  Frank Zuroski         12   06-D    Maple Grove            162
18  Colin Beasor          11   02-D    Greenwich              162
19  Kevin Malen           12   04-D    Windham Ashland        162
20  Hunter Clark          12   05-D    Arkport                162
21  Matt Karee            11   04-D    Elmira Notre Dame      161
22  Nick Farrell          10   01-D    Haldane                160
23  Devin Murphy          12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        158

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      43        Fayetteville-Manlius   28
  2   Saratoga             (02)      60        Saratoga Springs       77
  3   North Rockland       (01)     113        North Rockland        110
  4   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     121        Sachem East           115
  5   Webster Thomas       (05)     158        Monroe-Woodbury       138
  6   Elmira               (04)     159        Webster Thomas        154
  7   Syosset              (08)     163        Elmira                155
  8   Sachem East          (11)     169        Syosset               182
  9   Clarence             (06)     204        Clarence              185

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga are currently the #1 and #3 ranked teams in the nation ... Fayetteville-Manlius has the advantage based on speed ratings ... Saratoga continues to race impressively in race-after-race ... How will their first seasonal meeting turn out on the demanding Monroe-Woodbury course??

North Rockland and Monroe-Woodbury are both very good teams ...  Monroe-Woodbury has the home-course advantage ... North Rockland has the advantage in both seasonal and merged sectional speed ratings.

Not sure on how this race will play-out tactically due to the outstanding quality of both teams and individuals ... I suspect a number of girls will try to race near the front ... perhaps several girls leading with one or more decent-sized packs close behind ... at some point, I suspect the Monroe-Woodbury course will begin to separate the lead runners and packs.

Individual Race ... This is a great race in terms of quality ... Likely the best girl's race of any State Meet in the Nation ... Jessica Lawson just broke Molly Huddle's course at Chenango Valley State Park (next year's State Meet course) ... Kelsey Chmiel is undefeated and improving (a 151 speed rating at sectionals) ... Kaitlyn Neal is a "Stotan" by definition (wins at VVS in fast time after being hit by a car on a training run) ... Abbey Wheeler beat Jessica Lawson at McQuaid with a 152 speed rating ... Katelyn Tuohy and Mary Hennelly are record breakers at nearly everything they run ... This is the only race in the US thus far this season where three girls with individual speed ratings above 150 this season have met head-to-head.

Ten girls in this race have an overall speed rating of 140 or higher and 27 girls have an overall speed rating of 130 or higher ... Excellent Quality.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Jessica Lawson        11   04-A    Corning                154
2   Kelsey Chmiel         9    02-A    Saratoga               149
3   Kaitlyn Neal          12   03-A    FM                     148
4   Abbey Wheeler         12   04-A    Elmira District        147
5   Katelyn Tuohy         8    01-A    North Rockland         145
6   Mary Hennelly         8    01-A    Suffern                143
7   Carly Benson          10   03-A    West Genesee           142
8   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     142
9   Kathryn Munks         12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        141
10  Alex Harris           11   01-A    North Rockland         140
11  Danielle Jordan       12   02-A    Shenendehowa           139
12  Emily Bini            8    02-A    Guilderland            138
13  Reilly Siebert        10   08-A    Syosset                138
14  Palmer Madsen         10   03-A    FM                     137
15  Sophia Ryan           10   03-A    FM                     136
16  Peyton Engborg        10   02-A    Saratoga               136
17  Samantha Levy         12   03-A    FM                     135
18  Kathryn Tenney        9    02-A    Colonie                134
19  Alexandra DeCicco     12   11-A    Sachem East            134
20  Lauren Chapey         12   01-A    Mamaroneck             133
21  Rebecca Walters       10   03-A    FM                     133
22  Paris Fenoff          9    02-A    Saratoga               133
23  Julia Zachgo          11   02-A    Shenendehowa           133
24  Maryanna Lansing      12   02-A    Shaker                 132
25  Megan Reilly          12   09-A    Warwick                132 (not racing)
26  Sammy Watson          11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         131
27  Jennie Prial          11   09-A    Warwick                130
28  Katrina Patterson     11   06-A    Clarence               130

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      85        John Jay Cross River   55
  2   Shoreham Wading Riv  (11)      88        Shoreham Wading Riv    74
  3   John Jay Cross River (01)      91        Burnt Hills            88
  4   North Shore          (08)      93        North Shore           111
  5   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      99        Cornwall              117
  6   Cornwall             (09)     104        Honeoye Falls-Lima    117
  7   Pioneer              (06)     160        Pioneer               171
  8   Westhill-Ludden      (03)     177        Westhill-Ludden       184
  9   Franklin Academy     (10)     239        Franklin Academy      245
  10  Vestal               (04)     272        Vestal                266
  11  Peru                 (07)     340        Peru                  348

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is the defending State Class B champion and is the slightest of favorites entering this year's race ... I believe 6 teams have a shot at winning this race, especially since the race is being contested at Monroe-Woodbury.

Burnt Hills is the defending State Class B champion ... Shoreham Wading River was the top scorer in the speed rating merge from sectionals ... John Jay Cross River is very close in all scenarios I evaluated ... North Shore is improving and the team to watch ... and Cornwall and Honeoye Falls-Lima are right there ... This would be a great betting race.

Individual Race ... Diana Vizza enters the Class B race as the favorite to win the individual title ... she ran the 4th-fastest time ever at Bethpage at sectionals ... A whole bunch of girls look very competitive for the 2nd-spot.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Diana Vizza           12   08-B    North Shore            145
2   Daniela LoCastro      12   08-B    Cold Spring Harbor     132
3   Samantha Peterman     11   06-B    Sweet Home             132
4   Sarah Flynn           9    01-B    Ursuline               131
5   Eva Scott             11   02-B    Burnt Hills            131
6   Katherine Lee         10   11-B    Shoreham Wading River  130
7   Victoria Caroli       12   09-B    Cornwall               130
8   Kaylah Quarshie       11   09-B    Port Jervis            128
9   Natalie Marra         12   03-B    East Syracuse-Minoa    128
10  Hannah Mellino        11   09-B    Cornwall               127
11  Clancy Rheude         9    05-B    Canandaigua            127
12  Mary Borkoski         9    01-B    Pearl River            126
13  Gemma Nutall          12   01-B    John Jay CR            125
14  Hannah Butler         11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      124
15  Katie Cobos           9    05-B    Canandaigua            124
16  Justyna Wilkinson     12   03-B    Whitesboro             123
17  Emily MacKay          12   04-B    Union-Endicott         123
18  Caroline Timm         10   01-B    Lourdes                122
19  Megan Caltagirone     12   06-B    Pioneer                121
20  Alexandra Hays        11   11-B    Shoreham Wading River  121
21  Sydney McDaniel       12   05-B    Honeoye FL             121
22  Pippa Nutall          9    01-B    John Jay CR            121
23  Olivia Lazarou        10   02-B    Amsterdam              120

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      32        East Aurora            35
  2   Bronxville           (01)      85        Bronxville             78
  3   Chatham              (02)     116        Newark Valley         119
  4   Newark Valley        (04)     137        Chatham               120
  5   Saranac              (07)     139        Cazenovia             128
  6   Canton               (10)     146        Saranac               152
  7   Livonia              (05)     155        Mattituck             163
  8   Cazenovia            (03)     171        Livonia               163
  9   Mattituck            (11)     195        Oyster Bay            209
  10  Rondout Valley       (09)     232        Rondout Valley        218
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)     254
                   *** Canton had only 4 finishers at States ***

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora beat Bronxville by 3 points last year ... East Aurora is racing very well this season and are nationally ranked ... they enter this Class C race as the odds-on favorite

Chatham actually beat Bronxville in the sectional speed rating merge from last week ... However, Bronxville has the advantage based on seasonal ratings.

Individual Race ... Sophia Tasselmyer (East Aurora) is the solid favorite to win the Class C race ... Fiona Danieu has been racing nicely ... Improving Hayleigh Palotti (Livonia) could be a surprise challenger for the top-spot.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Sophia Tasselmyer     12   06-C    East Aurora            142
2   Fiona Danieu          12   06-C    East Aurora            132
3   Hayleigh Palotti      10   05-C    Livonia                131
4   Julia Flower          12   02-C    Schalmont              126
5   Kaitlin Ryan          11   01-C    Bronxville             125
6   Abby Gugel            12   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        124
7   Maisy Webster         11   06-C    East Aurora            124
8   Caroline Pennacchio   12   01-C    Briarcliff             124
9   Mika Andrews          11   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            120
10  Molly McLaughlin      10   06-C    East Aurora            119
11  Hallie Allen          10   02-C    Chatham                119
12  Olivia Baumann        11   02-C    Greenville             117
13  Kaylee Stone          11   04-C    Windsor                116
14  Meggie Hart           10   03-C    Cazenovia              116
15  Katelyn Huggard       10   01-C    Pawling                116
16  Meghan Curtin         12   05-C    Wayland Cohocton       116
17  Emily Auld            12   01-C    Albertus Magnus        114
18  Clara Rowles          9    03-C    Cazenovia              114
19  Grace Bessette        10   10-C    Canton                 114
20  Clarissa Hensler      11   05-C    Livonia                113
21  Allie Bartolotta      12   02-C    Hudson                 113

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      54        Greenwich              53
  2   Maple Grove          (06)      62        Tully                  63
  3   Tully                (03)      75        Maple Grove            74
  4   Seton Catholic       (07)     112        Addison               140
  5   Trumansburg          (04)     124        Seton Plattsburgh     152
  6   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     158        Norwood Norfolk       153
  7   Addison              (05)     161        Trumansburg           159
  8   Shelter Island       (11)     195        Haldane               163
  9   Haldane              (01)     200        Shelter Island        176
  10  Sullivan West        (09)     260        Sullivan West         268


		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the two-time defending Class D champion ... However, this year Tully has an uphill battle against Greenwich (3rd at States in Class C last year) and improved Maple Grove. 

Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) has been racing well and enters the Class D race as the individual favorite ... Improving Kaycie Saucier (Norwood-Norfolk) could offer a serious challenge for the top-spot ... Brooke Rauber (Tully 7th-grader) continues to run well.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Sage Hurta            12   03-D    Hamilton               140
2   Kaycie Saucier        12   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        138
3   Brooke Rauber         7    03-D    Tully                  131
4   Hope Pietrocarlo      12   06-D    Maple Grove            123
5   Margaret Champagne    12   07-D    Seton Catholic         123
6   Ashleigh Crawford     12   03-D    Tully                  117
7   Brynne Wright         8    02-D    Greenwich              117
8   Emma Cronin           8    02-D    Greenwich              115
9   Molly MacQueen        8    04-D    Trumansburg            114
10  Monica Strain         11   02-D    Maple Hill             113
11  Tori Spiezio          12   02-D    Greenwich              112
12  Grace Auer            10   06-D    Maple Grove            111
13  Taylor Edmundson      10   09-D    Webutuck               109
14  Brooke Wright         8    02-D    Greenwich              107
15  Carling Lockwood      7    06-D    Maple Grove            107
16  Emma Seiders          11   06-D    Silver Creek           106
17  Chloe Weaver          11   05-D    Red Creek              106
18  Sarah Sharpe          9    03-D    New York Mills         105
19  Abby Gostomski        8    06-D    Cattaraugus            104
20  Shayna Will           11   04-D    Seton Catholic-B       104
21  Ellen Jaworski        12   03-D    Tully                  104
22  Elaine Atanasova      9    02-D    Duanesburg             103
23  Heidi Edmonds         10   03-D    Cooperstown            102