Footlocker Speed Rating Preview 2015

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Footlocker 2015 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating  for betting purposes
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Footlocker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... Other Ratings - other selected speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Footlocker Finals)

General Comment ... I expect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Footlocker Nationals will be higher than those shown in table above (that's almost always the case) ... To finish in top places at Footlocker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Footlocker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (season-best performances).

Six of eight underclassmen from last year's Footlocker return this year (-returning underclassmen from last year include Carter Blunt (injured) and Austin Tamagno (ran NXN)) ... Last year, Andrew Hunter was 4th and Ben Veatch was 14th (best among returning runners) ... [Link to 2014 results]

Six runners competed at NXN Nationals 2015 ... Ben Veatch (2nd), Finn Gessner (8th), Seth Hirsch (9th), Paul Roberts (11th), Reed Brown (14th), and Jonathan Davis (22nd)

Selected Individual Runners

Andrew Hunter ... The odds-on favorite to win ... Undefeated this season ... Has the highest individual speed rating (204) ... is only runner with a speed rating in the 200s ... Andrew Hunter may set a relatively fast early pace ... If that happens, it will be interesting to see who tries to stay with him.

Phillip Rocha ... Fastest guy at the California State Meet ... Fastest guy at the Mt SAC Invitational (just missed the course record).

Ben Veatch ... Ran very well in finishing 2nd at NXN Nationals ... He is good at staying in a group of runners near the leader, following the pace and moving when the time is right.

Garek Bielaczyc ... I had some speed rating doubters wondering about my early season ratings for Garek Bielaczyc ... After several fast efforts in Utah, he traveled to Minnesota and won the Roy Griak Invite impressively (speed rating of 198) beating Jaret Carpenter (4th at NXN) and Seth Hirsch (9th at NXN) ... He won Footlocker West with a fast time and out-kicked Phillip Rocha ... After the Roy Griak Invite, he was beaten at regionals and States by Alek Parsons (who was 3rd at NXN) and lost consideration in some ranking lists ... The top guys in Utah are really good (Casey Clinger won NXN) ... Appears to me that Garek Bielaczyc has traveled from the higher altitudes of Utah to lower altitudes twice (Roy Griak and Footlocker West) and won impressively both times ... So I think he deserves big consideration entering Footlocker Nationals.

Noah Affolder ... One of two New York runners in the race (the other is Conor Lundy) ... Noah Affolder won Footlocker Northeast handily ... He won the Manhattan Invite Championship race ... Hoping the NY guys run well at Nationals.

Jonathan Davis ... Was one of the favorites entering NXN Nationals after winning both Footlocker & NXN Midwest against very good competition ... In an interview after NXN, he said he simply had a bad race (finished 22nd) ... As for handicapping the upcoming Footlocker race, it is basically a guess ... I think Jonathan Davis is too good a runner not to perform better at Footlocker.

Andrew Jordan ... Ran some very impressive races in Ohio during the season ... Helped push the pace at Footlocker Midwest where he finished 4th (only 1.2 seconds behind Ben Veatch).

Paul Roberts ... Did much of the work in setting the pace at NXN and paid a bit of the price as a result (finished 11th).

Joshua Clark ... Won the New Jersey Meet of Champions in good time and followed that with a good 4th-place finish at Footlocker Northeast.

Finn Gessner ... 8th at NXN Nationals ... Seth Hirsch ... 9th at NXN Nationals ..... Good performances by both runners.

Talon Hull ... Good performance at Footlocker West ... limited data otherwise ... could be a surprise??

Conor Lundy ... Getting better with each race ... Hope it continues.

General Comment ... A good field of competitors ... Weini Kelati is the favorite based on excellent seasonal performances ... Several girls seem capable of providing a serious challenge to the favorite.

Eleven underclassmen return this year from last year's Footlocker ... Top returning  runners are Hannah DeBalsi, Libby Davidson and Annie Hill ... The favorite, Weini Kelati, is one of the returning runners... [Link to 2014 results]

Five runners competed at NXN Nationals 2015 ... Sarah Leinheiser (7th), Judy Pendergast (8th), Madison Troy (12th), Abby Gray (21st) and Stephanie Jenks (25th).

Selected Individual Runners

Weini Kelati ... enters Footlocker 2015 as the favorite ... Her XC performance levels are much improved from last year ... Ran an excellent 16:43 at Footlocker South on the McAlpine course which was lengthened by nearly 70 meters from previous years (due to construction) ... Ryan Frazier (2nd to Anna Rohrer at Footlocker 2014) won last year's Footlocker South in 16:27 and my speed rating calculations showed McAlpine ran 12 seconds slower in 2015 compared to 2014.

Taylor Werner ... is having the best XC season of her excellent career ... She qualified and competed at both Footlocker and NXN in both her freshman and sophomore seasons ... Could not compete last year due to injury ... Decided to focus solely on Footlocker for her senior season ... As a freshman in 2012, Taylor Werner finished 2nd to Anna Rohrer at Footlocker Midwest (Rohrer had a speed rating of 156 and Werner had a speed rating of 152) ... Taylor Werner won this year's Footlocker Midwest with a speed rating of 157 ... She is undefeated this season and is capable of either setting a fast pace or following a fast pace ... Taylor Werner is a serious contender to win Footlocker.

Nevada Mareno ... broke the WakeMed course record (the course used for NXN Southeast, the Great American Festival and many other races) ... I thought Footlocker South would be interesting race between Nevada Mareno and Weini Kelati until I saw Nevada Mareno ran a remarkable track double of 10:02.89 (3200 meters) and 4:43.49 (Mile) only a week before the race ... Those track times are outstanding ... But this is XC, and the handicapper in me said that effort on the same day at two different locations might zap the strength of any mortal runner if the second race (the 3200m) was run all-out (and it was) ... Probably not a problem the following week if the race distance is 800 meters or a mile, BUT a 5K against Weini Kelati is asking a lot ... My 157 speed rating for Nevada Mareno when she broke the WakeMed record was "pooh-poohed" by a number of people (not sure why because WakeMed and its inherent speed is well known), but she followed that with another sub-17:00 at WakeMed to convince some viewers ... I think Nevada Mareno has a real shot at winning Footlocker.

Annie Hill ... finished 8th at Footlocker last year ... Annie Hill is undefeated this season and running better than last year ... She beat Ella Donhagu (2nd at NXN) at NXN Northwest ... The times at Footlocker West suggest Annie Hill won with a conservative effort and did not need to extend herself (good for Footlocker Nationals) ... Annie Hill is another real contender.

Judy Pendergast ... broke significant course records at Detweiller Park and the LaVern Gibson course (Anna Rohrer's record) ... Has run a lot of hard competitive races in recent weeks ... Helped push the pace at NXN Nationals (finished 8th) ... Judy Pendergast has the ability to be a contender.

Madeleine Davison ... is running unattached from her school (North Allegany PA) ... I have few seasonal speed ratings because she is running unattached, but she won Footlocker Northeast handily ... Handicapping her chances are something of a guess, but she could be really good.

Jessica Lawson ... the top individual runner in NY ... Won both the NY Federation Championship and Manhattan Invite Championship races handily ... It is indoor track season in NY, and Jessica Lawson just won a 1500 meter race in 4:39.61 on the relative slow indoor track at SUNY Cortland ... Both Aisling Cuffe and Aislinn Ryan won 3000 meter indoor races in NY the week before winning Footlocker Nationals.

Hannah DeBalsi ... finished an excellent 2nd to Tessa Barrett at Footlocker Finals 2013 ... Has been hampered by injuries ... I honestly don't know if she can contend with the top runners, but I won't be surprise if she does ... Hannah DeBalsi is the top returning runner from Footlocker 2014 (she was 5th).

Julia Heymach ... not sure if Julia Heymach has had the opportunity to show what she can really do in XC this season ... The Texas State Meet was a muddy mess ... I tend to think she ran Footlocker South only fast enough to qualify comfortably ... She could be the runner to hang behind the leaders or near the back of the chase pack and then finish very fast passing lots of runners.

Libby Davidson ... the 2nd top returning runner from Footlocker 2014 (finished 6th) ... Has been improving and could be a factor.