October 29, 2014 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2014 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 29, 2014 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 2, 2014
... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 2, 2014
Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 27 Fayetteville-Manlius 24 2 Liverpool 34 Liverpool 45 3 Baldwinsville 128 West Genesee 123 4 Cicero-North Syracuse 133 Baldwinsville 129 5 West Genesee 135 Cicero-North Syracuse 175 6 Central Square 175 Auburn 177 7 Auburn 190 Central Square 193 8 Rome 230 Syracuse West 238 9 Proctor 239 Rome Free Academy 239 10 Syracuse West 252 Proctor 251 11 Syracuse East 299 Syracuse East 252 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are currently the top-ranked teams in NY State (all classes) ... Both are ranked in the top ten nationally ... Unfortunately, one of best teams in the entire State and Nation will not qualify for the NY State Meet since only the winning team advances to States. FM beat Liverpool at both McQuaid (50 to 72) and Manhattan (80 to 122) ... However, the limited number of teams and competition in this Class A race indicates the score will be much closer ... Effectively, this race looks like a dual meet between FM and Liverpool ... The five scorers for each team are all ranked in the top 13 of the current Section 3 Class A leaderboard ... The other 3 runners (from Proctor and West Genesee) could have a big impact on the team scoring depending on where they finish and displace scorers from FM and Liverpool. Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite, but Liverpool is within striking distance ... The weather forecast for Saturday has temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, breezy with possible rain or snow showers ... The VVS course is already wet (teams were not allowed to train on it) ... Under cold wet conditions, the VVS course can be expected to run relatively slow ... This is very different from the conditions at McQuaid or the short 4K Manhattan Invite ... The effect of the longer distance (a real 5K) and challenging conditions (cold, wind, mud, soft turf) remains to be seen for all runners at this sectional championship meet ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the Class A favorite, but Liverpool could make this race very interesting. Baldwinsville, CNS and West Genesee look fairly evenly matched ... The numbers give Baldwinsville a slight edge (they finished ahead of CNS and West Genesee in the Manhattan merge). Individual Race ...Bryce Millar
(FM) is the top-ranked Class A runner in
Section 3 (and NY State) ... Ben Petrella (Liverpool),
Peter Ryan (FM) and Kyle Barber (FM) are equally
rated at the next three spots ... The top five individuals, not
on the winning team, qualify as individuals for the State
Meet. |
Boys Class B - Carthage a slight favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== =================== ===== 1 Carthage 90 Carthage 72 2 Whitesboro 99 Whitesboro 79 3 New Hartford 107 Marcellus 115 4 Marcellus 140 New Hartford 142 5 Fulton 146 Chittenango 149 6 Chittenango 147 Fulton 165 7 Jamesville Dewitt 151 Jamesville-Dewitt 188 8 Oneida 234 Oneida 234 9 Cortland 257 Cortland 276 10 East Syracuse-Minoa 275 East Syracuse-Minoa 284 11 Homer 303 Homer 297 12 Indian River 338 Camden 298 13 Camden 351 Indian River 361 14 Mexico 391 Mexico 374 15 Central Valley 404 Central Valley 390 16 Oswego 414 Oswego 409 17 Watertown 479 Watertown 443 18 VVS 493 VVS 479 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Carthage gets a slight edge over Whitesboro and New Hartford in a potentially close contest ... Carthage was helped this season by transfer runners Noah and Sam Affolder who came from Illinois ... Carthage is the Frontier League champion and they recently won the Marathon Invitational. New Hartford beat Whitesboro by one point at the TVL League Championship meet ... Last week, Whitesboro beat New Hartford at the Adirondack Invitational (59-76) ... Earlier in the season (Oct 11), Carthage beat Whitesboro at Rome Coughlin Invite (81-88) ... This race could be a very close. Individual Race ... Noah Affolder (Carthage) is the top-rated Class B runner in NY State and is the solid favorite to win this race ... Patrick Dye (JD), Sam Affolder (Carthage), Jake Zedack (Mexico) and Pat McGuane (Marcellus) are the next top-rated runners in Class B.
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Boys Class C - Adirondack and Holland Patent the favorites again |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Adirondack 65 Adirondack 48 2 Holland Patent 76 Holland Patent 66 3 Westhill-Ludden 90 Westhill-Ludden 111 4 Jordan-Elbridge 93 Jordan-Elbridge 127 5 Cazenovia 148 Cazenovia 159 6 Hannibal 176 Clinton 161 7 Port Byron 189 Hannibal 190 8 Clinton 204 Port Byron 255 9 Phoenix 253 Phoenix 287 10 APW 285 South Jefferson 298 11 Skaneateles 295 Skaneateles 308 12 South Jefferson 324 APW 317 13 Solvay 348 Herkimer 333 14 Canastota 377 Solvay 364 15 Sherburne-Earlville 425 Canastota 394 16 Little Falls 442 Sherburne-Earlville 412 Little Falls 468 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Adirondack beat Holland Patent at the CSC Conference Championship (40-66) and Adirondack beat Holland Patent at the recent Adirondack Invitational (59-80) ... and that makes Adirondack the favorite ... But Holland Patent is the defending State Class C champion and they run their best at this point in the season, so don't be surprised if they win this race. Jordan-Elbridge beat Westhill-Ludden by one point at the OHSL Liberty Championship ... both teams are not far behind the top two. Individual Race ... Jason McFarland (Hannibal) is the top-rated Class C runner ... Connor Hrynuk (Adirondack), Ryan O'Rourke (Adirondack) and Dominic Morganti (CBA) are the next top-rated runners in Class C.
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Boys Class D - Beaver River the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Beaver River 72 Beaver River 50 2 Sauquoit Valley 89 Sauquoit Valley 89 3 Utica Notre Dame 90 Utica Notre Dame 100 4 Onondaga 118 Tully 101 5 Tully 119 Onondaga 165 6 New York Mills 219 New York Mills 217 7 Weedsport 245 Weedsport 218 8 Oriskany 259 Oriskany 237 9 Pulaski 265 South Lewis 274 10 LaFayette 318 Cooperstown 291 11 Cato-Meridian 327 LaFayette 303 12 South Lewis 351 Pulaski 313 13 Fabius-Pompey 352 Fabius-Pompey 327 14 Sandy Creek 369 Sandy Creek 330 15 Cooperstown 381 West Canada 415 16 Blessed Virgin Mary 405 Hamilton 443 17 West Canada 428 MPH 478 18 Hamilton 457 Blessed Virgin Mary 496 19 MPH 491 Dolgeville 525 20 Remsen 545 Poland 609 21 Poland 545 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River has been running well ... At the Frontier League Championship, Beaver River lost to Carthage (the Class B favorite above) by only a small margin (33-39) ... Beaver River beat the improving Utica Notre Dame team at the Adirondack Invite by a small margin (30-38). Utica Notre Dame finished 3rd at the TVL League Championship, but they were close to Class B teams New Hartford and Whitesboro (64-65-72). Sauquoit Valley, another improving team, finished a good 3rd at the CSC Conference Championship behind Class C favorites Adirondack and and Holland Patent (40-66-70). The numbers make Beaver River the favorite, but this race could be close. Individual Race ... Connor Oakman (Lafayette) is the top-rated Class D runner ... A bunch of runners are then closely rated, and includes Dylan Durgan (South Lewis), Dan Hillman (Utica Notre Dame), Cole Blocher (Sauquoit), Leif Ostrum (South Lewis) Brett Neddo (Beaver River), Richard Liddiard (Weedsport) and Brad Phelps (Tully).
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Girls Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ==================== ==== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 19 Fayetteville-Manlius 21 2 West Genesee 76 West Genesee 61 3 Liverpool 84 Liverpool 75 4 Baldwinsville 96 Baldwinsville 115 5 Cicero-North Syracuse 122 Rome Free Academy 123 6 Rome 124 Cicero-North Syracuse 132 7 Central Square 212 Central Square 229 8 Auburn 254 Auburn 271 9 Syracuse West 299 Syracuse West 284 10 Proctor 304 Syracuse East 290 11 Syracuse East 324 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius scored a perfect 15 in four of the last seven years at sectionals (but not last year) ... Carly Benson (West Genesee) is likely to disrupted the perfect score by finishing in the top five. Fayetteville-Manlius is one of the top five teams in the nation ... FM showed they were vulnerable by their performance at McQuaid ...FM bounced back nicely at the Manhattan Invite and posted some very good numbers ... But for national rankings, I have a problem with the Manhattan Invite due to its short distance of only 4K ... This sectional race at VVS should give a better indication of how FM rates on a tough course ... The Class A race at States will be loaded with excellent teams and runners from around the State and should be a good test of overall performance for all NY teams. West Genesee and Liverpool are not separated by much for the runner-up spot (potential implication for a Federation "at-large" bid). Individual Race ... Annika Avery (FM) and Carly Benson (West Genesee) are the top-rated runners in Section 3 ... They are followed by four FM runners.
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Girls Class B - Jamesville Dewitt the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Jamesville Dewitt 63 Jamesville-Dewitt 53 2 New Hartford 85 New Hartford 76 3 Chittenango 110 Chittenango 136 4 Homer 126 Whitesboro 147 5 Marcellus 169 East Syracuse-Minoa 165 6 Whitesboro 181 Cortland 183 7 East Syracuse-Minoa 192 Homer 190 8 Cortland 194 Marcellus 201 9 Carthage 239 Carthage 222 10 Oswego 252 Oswego 250 11 Oneida 260 Oneida 254 12 Central Valley 299 Central Valley 278 13 Indian River 347 Watertown 316 14 Watertown 372 Indian River 343 15 Fulton 387 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt won the the OHSL Freedom Meet and beat Homer and East Syracuse-Minoa (52-72-92) ... With both teams at full strength at the Manhattan Invite (I think), Jamesville-Dewitt beat Chittenango in the Varsity C race ... Jamesville-Dewitt finished 58th in the Manhattan Merge, while New Hartford finished 69th and Chittenango 70th. New Hartford recently won the Varsity 1 race at the Adirondack Invitational. Chittenango finished 6th at the OHSL Freedom Champion, but top-rated runner Anna Galbraith did not race (she has has not raced since the Manhattan Invitational) ... the Chittenango score above assumes she does race. Individual Race ... Class B has several closely-rated runners at the top including Natalie Marra (ESM), Anna Galbraith (Chittenango), Justyna Wilkinson (Whitesboro) and Hannah Butler (JD) ... the race for the individual title could be close.
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Girls Class C - Westhill-Ludden the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Westhill-Ludden 44 Westhill-Ludden 46 2 Skaneateles 71 Cazenovia 87 3 Cazenovia 115 Skaneateles 112 4 South Jefferson 121 South Jefferson 123 5 Hannibal 133 Hannibal 130 6 Jordan-Elbridge 160 Jordan-Elbridge 148 7 Clinton 179 Clinton 158 8 Canastota 196 Canastota 176 9 Little Falls 274 Holland Patent 217 10 Holland Patent 281 Little Falls 228 11 Phoenix 338 Phoenix 332 12 Port Byron 341 Sherburne-Earlville 355 13 CBA 363 Herkimer 376 14 APW 369 15 Sherburne-Earlville 421 16 Herkimer 429 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the Section 3 Class B title last year, and this year, Westhill-Ludden dropped to Class C ... Westhill-Ludden beat Skaneateles and Cazenovia at the OHSL Liberty Championship meet (37-63-73) which makes them a solid favorite in this race. Individual Race ... Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) is currently the top-rated Class C runner in Section 3 ... she is also the #2-rated Class C runner in NY State, and that makes her the favorite to win the individual title ... But within striking distance are Clara Rowles (Cazenovia), Genny Corcoran (Westhill-Ludden) and Abby Gugle (Jordan-Elbridge).
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Girls Class D - Tully the favorite |
Predicted Actual School Score School Score ================== ===== ================== ===== 1 Tully 65 Tully 52 2 Beaver River 77 Beaver River 71 3 Sauquoit Valley 87 Sauquoit Valley 114 4 South Lewis 117 South Lewis 115 5 Cooperstown 135 Cooperstown 148 6 Hamilton 199 Hamilton 151 7 Pulaski 221 New York Mills 177 8 New York Mills 221 Pulaski 246 9 Onondaga 227 Westmoreland 267 10 Fabius-Pompey 256 Fabius-Pompey 271 11 LaFayette 333 Onondaga 300 12 Old Forge 334 Old Forge 315 13 Westmoreland 340 Cato-Meridian 344 14 Cato-Meridian 350 Sandy Creek 354 15 Poland 350 LaFayette 377 16 Sandy Creek 393 Poland 441 17 Oriskany 468 Oriskany 458 18 MPH 512 MPH 498 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... The girls Class D race includes 4 of the 8 top-ranked Class D teams in NY State ... Tully is ranked #1 in one State list (NY MileSplit) and 3rd in another (NY Sports Writers Association) ... Tully is the defending Section 3 Class D champion and the defending NY State champion. Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship meet and beat Beaver River in a division of the Chittenango Invitational (53-70 on Oct 18th). Beaver River won the Frontier League Championship over South Lewis (26-47) and repeated that victory in the recent Adirondack Invitational (29-44). Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Conference Championship meet beating Cooperstown and Hamilton (73-82-102). Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and the solid favorite to win the individual title ... Ashleigh Crawford (Tully) and Kristin Ratliff (Cooperstown) are the #2 and #3-rated runners.
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