| Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2014 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 29, 2014
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 26, 2014 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 29, 2014 |
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 8, 2014
| NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries |
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Link to NY Championship Race Entries - Club Names and Individuals ]
| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 62 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 72
2 Liverpool 96 (03-A ) St. Anthony's 88
3 St. Anthony's 99 (CHSAA) Liverpool 96
4 Pittsford Mendon 225 (05-B ) Corning 193
5 Xavier 245 (CHSAA) Ithaca 212
6 Guilderland 250 (02-A ) Pittsford Mendon 229
7 East Aurora 265 (06-C ) East Aurora 245
8 Corning 267 (04-A ) Syosset 274
9 Fordham Prep 270 (CHSAA) Guilderland 321
10 Syosset 285 (08-A ) Williamsville North 322
11 Ithaca 289 (04-A ) Mount Academy 326
12 Collegiate 330 (AIS ) Fordham 332
13 Mount Academy 350 (09-C ) Collegiate 344
14 Williamsville North 390 (06-A ) Sweet Home 365
15 Sweet Home 399 (06-B ) Commack 409
16 Commack 418 (11-A ) Maine-Endwell 417
17 John Jay CR 429 (01-B ) John Jay CR 419
18 Webster Thomas 455 (05-A ) Carthage 436
19 Sachem East 462 (11-A ) Elmira District 470
20 Carthage 478 (03-B ) Webster Thomas 474
21 Elmira District 521 (04-A ) Sachem East 488
22 Lancaster 546 (06-A ) Queensbury 573
23 Maine-Endwell 566 (04-B ) Franklin Academy 617
24 Franklin Acad 652 (10-B ) Lancaster 650
25 Queensbury 684 (02-B )
26 Williamsville South 827 (06-B )
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool skipped the NY Federation Meet ... Fayetteville-Manlius can be considered the top ranked team in the nation currently and the favorite to win this race. Liverpool and St. Anthony's seem basically even-up entering the NXN-NY regional, with possibly a very slight advantage going to Liverpool ... St. Anthony's won the NY Federation Meet with a very impressive performance and could easily be picked to finish second ... a big gap exists between 3rd and 4th. I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will receive an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently. Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last three years - It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as a primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... I suspect that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances. Individual Race ... Most of the top ranked NY boys are racing at the NXN regional ... Bryce Millar (FM) is the favorite. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Bryce Millar 12 03-A FM 198 NXN Team 2 Mike Brannigan 12 11-A Northport 196 (at Footlocker) 3 Ben Petrella 11 03-A Liverpool 194 NXN Team 4 Kyle Barber 12 03-A FM 192 NXN Team 5 Peter Ryan 11 03-A FM 192 NXN Team 6 Kenny Vasbinder 11 06-C East Aurora 192 NXN Team 7 Marco Pompilj 12 AIS Collegiate 192 NXN Team 8 Aidan Tooker 11 02-A Saratoga 191 NXN Individual 9 Dan Dracup 12 04-A Ithaca 190 NXN Team 10 Patrick Tucker 12 CHS St. Anthonys 190 NXN Team 11 John Rice 12 CHS Xavier 190 NXN Team 12 Jeremy Spiezio 12 02-C Greenwich 190 NXN Individual 13 Noah Affolder 10 03-B Carthage 189 NXN Team 14 Tyler Italiano 12 08-A Syosset 189 NXN Team 15 Benito Muniz 12 01-A Carmel 189 (at Footlocker) 16 Conor Lundy 11 CHS Fordham Prep 189 NXN Team 17 Adam Hunt 12 03-A FM 188 NXN Team 18 Luke Gavigan 12 01-B Tappan Zee 186 NXN Individual 19 Keith Baird 12 09-C Mount Academy 186 NXN Team 20 Noah Carey 10 02-A Guilderland 186 NXN Team 21 Kobie Lane 12 09-B Port Jervis 186 NXN Individual 22 Jake Johnson 11 02-A Colonie 185 (at Footlocker) 23 Nick Ciolkowski 12 05-A McQuaid 185 (at Footlocker) 24 Zackaria Adam 12 03-A Proctor 185 ------ 25 Dan Schaffer 11 04-B Maine-Endwell 185 NXN Team 26 Dylan McCarthy 12 03-A Liverpool 184 NXN Team 27 Connor Buck 12 03-A Liverpool 184 NXN Team 28 Joshua Hadity 12 11-A Commack 184 NXN Team 29 Will Randall 12 03-A West Genesee 182 ------ 30 Pat Murphy 12 02-D Duanesburg 182 NXN Individual 31 Daryn Hutchings 12 02-D Argyle 182 NXN Individual 32 Dan Muldoon 12 03-A Liverpool 181 NXN Team 33 Joseph Prunty 12 CHS Fordham Prep 181 NXN Team 34 Liam Burke 12 01-B Tappan Zee 181 NXN Individual |
| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 37 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 34
2 Saratoga 98 (02-A ) Saratoga 68
3 Shenendehowa 109 (02-A ) Shenendehowa 102
4 Suffern 170 (01-A ) Suffern 140
5 Corning 173 (04-A ) Elmira District 160
6 Elmira District 179 (04-A ) Corning 164
7 Guilderland 180 (02-A ) East Aurora 218
8 East Aurora 260 (06-C ) Sachem East 218
9 North Shore 279 (08-B ) Guilderland 247
10 Syosset 289 (08-A ) Syosset 281
11 Sachem East 295 (11-A ) Westhill-Ludden 296
12 Webster Thomas 303 (05-A ) Webster Thomas 299
13 Sweet Home 338 (06-B ) John Jay CR 316
14 Queensbury 342 (02-B ) Queensbury 327
15 Notre Dame 352 (CHSAA) Hackley 328
16 Westhill-Ludden 354 (03-C )
17 John Jay CR 355 (01-B )
18 Hackley 383 (AIS )
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race. Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet by 23 points over Shenedehowa ... Saratoga beat Shenendehowa in a tie-breaker at sectionals, so this a reasonably close match-up for the second auto-qualifying position. Suffern, Corning, Elmira and Guilderland are fairly close ... and all have shown the ability to score lower than the projection above ... Elmira upset Fayetteville-Manlius at the McQuaid Invitational (with Shenedehowa was only 4 points behind FM (but it was an off-performance by FM)) ... Elmira has been hurt by some injuries. I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will receive an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently ... 4th-place will need to be very close to 2nd and 3rd-place ... Currently, the Palatine Illinois girls are a virtual lock to get one of the four "At-Large" bids. Individual Race ... Most of the top ranked NY girls are racing at the NXN regional ... Bella Burda (Arlington) and Jessica Lawson (Corning) are the top-ranked runners. |
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Bella Burda 12 01-A Arlington 152 NXN Individual 2 Jessica Lawson 10 04-A Corning 151 NXN Team 3 Carly Benson 9 03-A West Genesee 143 (at Footlocker) 4 Abbey Wheeler 11 04-A Elmira District 142 NXN Team 5 Sophia Ryan 9 03-A FM 142 NXN Team 6 Anna Flynn 11 01-A Ursuline 140 (entered both NXN & FL) 7 Samantha Levy 11 03-A FM 139 NXN Team 8 Annika Avery 12 03-A FM 138 NXN Team 9 Katherine Lee 9 11-B Shoreham Wading R 137 (entered both NXN & FL) 10 Alex Cooper 12 05-A Rush-Henrietta 137 NXN Team 11 Jenna Farrell 11 03-A FM 136 NXN Team 12 Danielle Jordan 11 02-A Shenendehowa 134 NXN Team 13 Sophia Tasselmyer 11 06-C East Aurora 134 NXN Team 14 Olivia Ryan 12 03-A FM 133 NXN Team 15 Mary Hennelly 7 01-A Suffern 133 NXN Team 16 Rachel Ludwikowski 10 01-A Suffern 132 NXN Team 17 Spencer Hayes 12 02-A Saratoga 132 NXN Team 18 Vicky Martinez 11 01-A Fox Lane 132 NXN Individual 19 Peyton Engborg 9 02-A Saratoga 132 NXN Team 20 Kathryn Munks 11 09-A Monroe-Woodbury 132 ------ 21 Stephanie Gerland 11 08-B Garden City 132 NXN Individual 22 Emily MacKay 11 04-B Union-Endicott 132 NXN Individual 23 Maryanna Lansing 11 02-A Shaker 131 ------ 24 Anna Kostarellis 10 05-B Churchville-Chili 131 NXN Individual 25 Emily Burns 12 02-A Guilderland 131 NXN Team 26 Emily Bini 7 02-A Guilderland 131 NXN Team 27 Aileen Doyle 12 06-B Sweet Home 130 NXN Team 28 Lisa Fajardo 12 CHS Bishop Kearney 130 (at Footlocker) 29 Natalie Rogus 12 04-A Corning 130 NXN Team 30 Julia Zachgo 10 02-A Shenendehowa 130 NXN Team 31 Ella Ketchum 10 AIS Poly Prep 130 ------ 32 Alexandra DeCicco 11 11-A Sachem East 130 NXN Team |