Footlocker Preview 2014

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Footlocker 2014 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating  for betting purposes
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Footlocker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... Other Ratings - other selected speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Footlocker Finals)

General Comment ... I expect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Footlocker Nationals will be higher than those shown in table above (that's almost always the case) ... To finish in top places at Footlocker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Footlocker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (season-best performances).

This field of guys is deeper and stronger at the top end than last year ... Nine of the top 16 finishers at last year's Footlocker return this year ... This could be a very competitive race ... Race strategy might be an important factor in determining the outcome ... Will somebody try to go out fast and try to steal the race?? ... Will it be tactical and come down to a sprint finish?? ... I tend to think the race may start moderately with several runners making major mid-race moves ... Should be interesting to see who responds and how well they respond ... The difference this year is that multiple guys are capable of making moves and multiple guys are capable of covering moves.

Individual Runners

Grant Fisher ... The defending National Footlocker Champion ... Undefeated this XC season following an excellent track season ... Won Footlocker Midwest handily with something in reserve ... And that makes Grant Fisher the favorite ...... Now that he has a chance to "run fast", it will be interesting to see how fast he runs ... I suspect he will stay near the lead and cover any moves made by the top contenders.

Matthew Maton ... Finished 3rd at Footlocker last year (entered the race as one of the favorites) ... Popped a big performance at Oregon States in breaking Galen Rupp's record ... Lightly raced this season with focus on winning Footlocker ... A serious contender for the win.

Andrew Hunter ... One of two juniors in the top group listed above ... Undefeated this season ... Popped a huge performance at the Virginia State Meet ... Won the Great American Race of Champions ... A serious contender for the win.

Alex Ostberg ... Finished 11th at Footlocker last year, but had a much improved XC season this year overall compared to last year ... Came close to equaling Ed Cheserek's course record at Van Cortland Park when winning the Manhattan Invite Championship race ... Won Footlocker Northeast handily (on Nov 29) ... Did not run until two days before Footlocker Northeast due to an injury following New England Championships (on Nov 8), which raises questions concerning fitness when competing against this caliber of runners ... But still a serious contender for the win.

John Dressel ... Finished 2nd to Grant Fisher at last year's Footlocker with a very good season-best performance ... Lightly raced this season with focus on winning Footlocker ... Was beaten by NXN Champion Tanner Anderson at Washington States ... A serious contender for the win.

Austin Tamagno ... Broke the Mt SAC course record as a junior with a really good solo effort ... Gave up the opportunity to compete at NXN in favor of Footlocker ... A serious contender for the win in his home State of California.

Conner Mantz ... Finished 7th at Footlocker last year and 12th the year before ... Beat NXN Champion Tanner Anderson at the Bob Firman Invitational (Sept 27) ... Finished 2nd at the Utah State Meet (Oct 22) while competing with nasty injury (stress reaction in his femur) and was noticeably hampered ... Finished 5th at Footlocker West (Dec 6) ... Would clearly be a serious contender for the win, but missed training time and the injury raise concerns.

Olin Hacker ... Finished an excellent 2nd at NXN Nationals (only 2 seconds behind Tanner Anderson) ... and that makes him a serious contender for the win ... I wonder how much that effort will affect his Footlocker performance?

Elijah Armstrong ... Finished 6th at Footlocker last year ... Qualified to compete at NXN Nationals in a snowy run at NXN Northwest, but decided to run Footlocker West instead (made the same decision last year) ... Won Footlocker West with a season-best performance, and that makes him a serious contender.

Trevor Reinhart ... Finished 12th at Footlocker last year ... Was 2nd at Footlocker West ... Had the 2nd fastest time-of-the-day at California States in winning the D5 championship.

Jesse Reiser ... Finished 33rd at Footlocker last year ... Finished a very decent 6th at NXN Nationals this year despite a reported sickness.

Thomas Pollard ... Finished 13th at Footlocker last year.

General Comment ... I will not be surprised if any of the top six girls listed above wins Footlocker 2014 ... I think Anna Rohrer should be considered the slight favorite because she won Footlocker 2012 impressively and she has been improving since returning to competition following another injury ... Anna Rohrer's performance at Footlocker Midwest was on par with her winning Footlocker Finals performance in 2012 ... Ryen Frazier's performance at Footlocker South could easily make her a co-favorite ... Brianna Schwartz is performing very similar to last year's winner (Tessa Barrett), so she could be a co-favorite ... Makena Morley won Footlocker West impressively ... Hannah Debalsi returns after finishing 2nd last year ... and Paige Hofstad finished 2nd at NXN Nationals.

Individual Runners

Anna Rohrer ... Started the season late recuperating from another injury (first XC race back was Oct 11th) ... Though cross-training, missed lots time from actual running ... Has been winning her races impressively and has been running continually faster ... Anna Rohrer won Footlocker 2012 and enters Footlocker 2014 as the slight favorite.

Ryen Frazier ... On Nov 8th, she won the Three Stripe Invitational at WakeMed NC with a 156 speed rating ... the following week (Nov 15th), Ryen won the Dash For Doobie 3200 meter track race in 10:12.26 ... and the next week (Nov 22), won an All-Comers Mile race in 4:44.20 ... And if that's not enough, Ryen won Footlocker South (Nov 29) with a highest female speed rating of the year (160) ... Typically, those combined performances would make Ryen Frazier the favorite to win Footlocker Finals ... But Anna Rohrer is a former Footlocker winner and seems to be running as good or better than ever ... Looks like a toss-up, but other contenders are right there as well.

Brianna Schwatrz ... Started her season a bit late to seemingly focus on Footlocker ... Brianna's performance record for the season reminds me of Tessa Barrett (last year's winner) ... Won Footlocker Northeast handily ... Brianna Schwatrz is a serious contender to win this race ... She finished 6th at Footlocker last year, and was in 20th-place with just under a mile to go.

Makena Morley ... Won Footlocker West handily ... Popped a huge performance at the Montana State Meet (did the same thing last year) ... Expect an all-out effort from this outstanding senior runner ... I believe her best performances come when she leads and controls the pace of the race  ... whether that happens with the quality of this field reminders to be seen ... Makena Morley finished 8th last year (but never got into contention during the race).

Hannah DeBalsi ... Finished an excellent 2nd to Tessa Barrett at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Hannah DeBalsi's overall performance record from last year's junior year (XC + track) is the best of this field ... However, this race will be decided on current fitness and ability ... Hannah started the XC season fairly late, but she won the New England Championship and Connecticut State Championship handily ... Finished 2nd at Footlocker Northeast with a less than all-out effort ... The question becomes "What is her performance level entering Footlocker 2014??" ... Answer - I do not know, it's a guess for the handicapper ... I suspect she will be very good, but good enough to win?? ... Entering Footlocker 2013, Hannah had shown some performance levels that indicated she was a contender for the win ... But that's not the case in 2014, and this year's field seems stronger at the top end ... BUT Hannah DeBalsi could be focusing the 2014 XC season on one big all-out effort at Footlocker Finals, and I think she is capable of winning ... She is very good at "following" top lead runners during a race and then moving up to contend for the win, and that could be important in this race.

Paige Hofstad ... Finished an excellent 2nd to Allie Ostrander at NXN Nationals (only 7 seconds behind the winner) ... Has run very well in recent races ... Her NXN National performance was impressive on the new NXN course (a seemingly strength-favoring course under the soft conditions) ... As a handicapper, I wonder how much that effort took-out of her when she has to travel and race against top competition again the following week.

Gabriella Karas ... Another runner with a late competition start this season ... I believe the late start was due to an ankle injury ... Won her State Meet race handily and raced very well at Footlocker South, so an even better performance at Footlocker Finals is very possible ... Finished 25th at Footlocker last year as a freshman ... Expect a better finish this year.

Hannah Long ... Was undefeated this season until Footlocker Midwest ... qualified easily with probably something in reserve for Nationals ... Popped a nice 154 speed rating earlier in the season and could be a surprise ... Finished 23rd last year, but she is better this season.

Stephanie Jenks ... Tri-athlete, swimmer ... Finished 9th at Footlockers last year after challenging Tessa Barrett on the front-end (tired some at the end to finish 9th) ... Finished 18th at NXN Nationals this year, but seemed to be struggling some on the soft turf ... I think she will fare better at Balboa Park.