Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   28           Fayetteville-Manlius    24
  2   Liverpool              34           Liverpool               37
  3   West Genesee          106           West Genesee            90
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 120           Cicero-North Syracuse  125
  5   Central Square        140           Central Square         141
  6   Baldwinsville         171           Baldwinsville          176
  7   Rome Free             203           Auburn                 203
  8   Auburn                226           Rome Free Academy      236
  9   Syracuse West         239           Syracuse West          246
  10  Proctor               249           Proctor                277
  11  Syracuse East         328           Syracuse East          334
  12  Oswego                354           Oswego                 346
  
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is currently the top-ranked team in NY State (all classes) and Liverpool is either the #2 or #3 ranked team in the State (depending on source) ... FM beat  Liverpool at McQuaid (62 to 66) and at Manhattan (114 to 159) ... The limited number of teams and competition in this Class A race indicates the score will be close ... Unfortunately, one of best teams in the entire State will not qualify for the State Meet.

Individual Race ...Bryce Millar (FM) and Andrew Berge (FM) are the top-ranked Class A runners in Section 3 ... Bob Petrella (Liverpool) and Dan Muldoon (Liverpool) are the top ranked Liverpool runners ... I will be interested to see the performance of Zakaria Adams (Proctor) who has been racing very well all season ... If the team score is that close, the placement of Zakaria Adams (Proctor) could affect the outcome.
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill-Ludden        72           Whitesboro             59
  2   Whitesboro             82           Westhill-Ludden        80
  3   East Syracuse-Minoa   101           Jamesville-Dewitt      90
  4   Jamesville Dewitt     135           Chittenango           125
  5   New Hartford          140           East Syracuse-Minoa   131
  6   Chittenango           155           New Hartford          146
  7   Mexico                170           Mexico                219
  8   Oneida                217           Oneida                224
  9   Fulton                244           Carthage              240
  10  Carthage              256           Fulton                274
  11  Cortland              304           South Jefferson       291
  12  South Jefferson       312           Cortland              319
  13  Indian River          345           Homer                 342
  14  Homer                 365           Indian River          346
  15  Central Valley        368           Watertown             351
  16  Watertown             379           Camden                440
  17  Camden                468           VVS                   525
  18  VVS                   557

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the OHSL Liberty Meet handily ... Whitesboro won the TVL League Meet handily ... East Syracuse-Minoa won the OHSL Freedom Meet .... Looks competitive with Weshill-Ludden a slight favorite.

Individual Race ... Jesse Perrone (ESM) and Jacob Zedack (Mexico) are the top-ranked Class B runners ... a whole group of closely rated runners are in contention for one of the five individual qualifying spots.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent        81            Holland Patent         63
  2   Adirondack            81            Adirondack             87
  3   Jordan-Elbridge       94 (updated)  Jordan-Elbridge       104
  4   Hannibal              135           Hannibal              106
  5   Marcellus             137           Marcellus             130
  6   Clinton               190           Clinton               167
  7   Port Byron            191           Port Byron            194
  8   Phoenix               256           CBA                   233
  9   Little Falls          266           APW                   251
  10  Cazenovia             269           Cazenovia             260
  11  CBA                   270           Phoenix               271
  12  APW                   282           Skaneateles           276
  13  Solvay                333           Sherburne-Earl        366
  14  Skaneateles           360           Little Falls          371
  15  Mt. Markham           412           Mt. Markham           377
  16  Sherburne-Earl        418

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like last year, the Class C race has more uncertainty at the top end than the other races ... Based on raw numbers, Adirondack gets a slight scoring advantage over Holland Patent ... However, Adirondack's top runner (Ryan O'Rourke) was sick at the CSC Championship Meet (was their #5 scorer), but Adirondack still beat Holland Patent (67 to 82) ... Ryan O'Rourke sat out the Adirondack Invitational where Holland Patent won (62 to 111) ... I believe O'Rourke is expected to race at sectionals ... That combined with Holland Patent showing improvement could make this race a toss-up.

Jordan-Elbridge would be in contention if a top runner (Jack Gugel) was 100%, but Gugel hasn't raced since McQuaid in any invitational and league championship meets (so I assume he is out ... Update - I have been informed that Jack Gugel will be racing at sectionals, so I lowered their score above which makes Jordan-Elbridge a contender for the win).

Individual Race ... Ryan O'Rourke (Adirondack) is the top ranked Class C runner, but a number of guys are very close ... Brett Celecki (Holland Patent), Jack Yaworsky (Clinton), Bryce Zayachek (Holland Patent), Connor Hrynuk (Adirondack), Patrick McGuane (Marcellus) and Tim Chappell (Port Byron).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Sauquoit Valley       72            Sauquoit Valley        49
  2   Beaver River          99            New York Mills         80
  3   New York Mills        106           Beaver River          115
  5   South Lewis           158           Utica Notre Dame      118
  4   Utica Notre Dame      159           South Lewis           139
  6   Onondaga              162           Tully                 157
  7   Tully                 172           Onondaga              192
  7   Weedsport             182           Weedsport             241
  9   Pulaski               291           Pulaski               259
  10  LaFayette             311           LaFayette             293
  11  Oriskany              335           Oriskany              315
  12  Fabius-Pompey         351           Cooperstown           333
  13  Herkimer              364           Herkimer              344
  14  Cato-Meridian         372           Fabius-Pompey         370
  15  Sandy Creek           384           Sandy Creek           382
  16  Blessed Virgin Mary   396           Faith Heritage        426
  17  Cooperstown           405           Poland                433
  18  Faith Heritage        463           Bishop Grimes         459
  19  Poland                476           Blessed Virgin Mary   530
  20  Bishop Grimes         492           Hamilton              574
  21  Hamilton              607
  22  MPH                   611
  23  SAS                   630

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Championship Meet beating the top two Class C teams (Adirondack and Holland Patent) ... Sauquoit Valley then beat New York Mills and Beaver River at the Adirondack Invite (50-64-79) ... Sauquoit Valley is the favorite ... Looks like a toss-up between Beaver River and New York Mills for the 2nd-spot.

Individual Race ... Nicholas Spina (Sauquoit Valley) is the top-rated Class D runner and the favorite to win.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   17           Fayetteville-Manlius   19
  2   Liverpool              64           Liverpool              56
  3   West Genesee           92           West Genesee           80
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 103           Cicero-North Syracuse 113
  5   Baldwinsville         118           Baldwinsville         113
  6   Rome Free             170           Rome Free Academy     180
  7   Central Square        171           Central Square        201
  8   Auburn                276           Proctor               280
  9   Syracuse West         294           Auburn                291
  10  Proctor               303           Syracuse West         292
  11  Oswego                315           Oswego                306
  12  Syracuse East         340           Syracuse East         345
 
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius scored a perfect 15 in four of the last six years at sectionals including last year ... Laura Leff (West Genesee) is likely to disrupted the perfect score by finishing in the top five.

Fayetteville-Manlius is one of the top five teams in the nation, and their improvement shown at the CNYCL League Meet suggests another possibility at a national title at NXN ... Before making the jump to "top in the nation" before NXN, I want to see their performance at sectionals and especially States ... The excellent FM performance at CNYCL was done on an easy course in a "team time trial" situation which is conducive to fast performances ... Class A at States will be loaded with excellent runners from around the State and a better test of overall team performance.

Liverpool looks 2nd-best ... A good performance may be important to getting an "at-large" selection to the Federation Meet.

Individual Race ... Annika Avery (FM) and Alana Pearl (FM) are the top-rated runners in Section 3 ... Laura Leff (West Genesee), third at Footlocker Nationals in 2011, will likely grab one of the five individual qualifying spots to States.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill-Ludden        63           Westhill-Ludden        46
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      76           Jamesville-Dewitt     102
  3   Homer                 112           New Hartford          109
  4   South Jefferson       113           South Jefferson       117
  5   East Syracuse-Minoa   122           Homer                 127
  6   New Hartford          123           East Syracuse-Minoa   139
  7   Whitesboro            200           Whitesboro            199
  8   Chittenango           206           Chittenango           201
  9   Cortland              237           Cortland              206
  10  Carthage              291           Oneida                271
  11  Central Valley        314           Central Valley        277
  12  Oneida                341           Watertown             344
  13  Indian River          364           Indian River          382
  14  Fulton                385           Fulton                383
  15  Watertown             408
  
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the OHSL Liberty Meet at the Jordan-Elbridge course ... Jamesville-Dewitt beat Homer and East Syracuse-Minoa at the OHSL Freedom Meet at Jamesville Beach (48-56-66) ... Top Jamesville-Dewitt runner Rachel Fairbanks did not run at the OHSL Freedom Meet and has not raced in an invitational race since Manhattan, and I am not sure of her status for sectionals (the score above assumes she runs).

Individual Race ... Rachel Fairbanks (JD) is the top-rated Class B runner ... Closely rated at 2nd-5th are Jade Auchmoody (Homer), Genny Corcoran (Westhill-Luden), Emilee Carpenter (JD) and Anna Galbraith (Chittenango).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Skaneateles            46           Skaneateles            45
  2   Cazenovia              73           Cazenovia              66
  3   Marcellus             120           Hannibal               98
  4   Hannibal              127           Marcellus             102
  5   Jordan-Elbridge       128           Jordan-Elbridge       137
  6   Phoenix               207           Canastota             168
  7   Canastota             208           Phoenix               184
  8   APW                   210           APW                   188
  9   Clinton               262           Holland Patent        227
  10  Holland Patent        286           Little Falls          253
  11  Little Falls          287           Port Byron            266
  12  Port Byron            292

							

Pre-Race Analysis ... Skaneateles finished a good second to Westhill-Ludden (who is favored in the Class B race) at the OHSL Liberty Meet ... and following in order at the OHSL Liberty Meet were Cazenovia, Marcellus, Hannibal and Jordan-Elbridge ... CBA was incomplete at the OHSL Liberty Meet, so I excluded them (although CBA could have a complete team at sectionals and would follow Jordan-Elbridge in the projection above).

Individual Race ... Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) is currently the top-rated Class C runner in both Section 3 and NY State ... But close behind are Rachel Garn (Marcellus) and Megan Ann Pierce (CBA) ... Rachel Garn edged Kaitlyn Neal by 0.2 seconds at the OHSL Liberty Meet ... Abby Gugel (Jordan-Elbridge) and several others are solid contenders to grab individual qualifying spots to States.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  32           Tully                  45
  2   South Lewis            88           South Lewis            94
  3   Beaver River           93           Beaver River           97
  4   Cooperstown           112           Cooperstown           123
  5   Sauquoit Valley       118           Sauquoit Valley       129
  6   Pulaski               211           Hamilton              222
  7   LaFayette             237           Pulaski               236
  8   Poland                249           Sandy Creek           236
  9   Sandy Creek           252           Faith Heritage        237
  10  Faith Heritage        258           Fabius-Pompey         240
  11  Fabius-Pompey         263           Utica Notre Dame      279
  12  Onondaga              305           LaFayette             287
  13  Utica Notre Dame      339           New York Mills        296
  14  Waterville            340           Poland                369
  15  New York Mills        390           Oriskany              385
  16  Oriskany              415
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is currently the top-ranked Class D team in NY State and enters sectionals as a solid favorite to win ... Beaver River beat South Lewis at the Frontier League Championship (26-46), then South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Adirondack Invitational (46-74), so it could be toss-up between the two teams (South Lewis gets a slight advantage because they won the more recent meet).

Cooperstown and Sauquoit Valley are within striking distance of 2nd-place ... Cooperstown won the CSC League Meet handily by beating Sauquoit Valley, and Sauquoit Valley finished only two points behind Beaver River at the Adirondack Invitational .... There appears to be "variability" amongst the teams projected at the 2nd-4th positions with anything possible.

Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) is the individual favorite ... Sage Hurta is currently the top-rated Class D runner in NY State ... Ashleigh Crawford (Tully), Natalie Mogavero (Weedsport) and Ellen Jaworski (Tully) are closely rated at the next positions.