Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2013 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 30, 2013
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 27, 2013 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED Dec 1, 2013 |
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED Dec 1, 2013
NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries |
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Link to NY Championship Race Entries - Club Names and Individuals ]
Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite |
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 53 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 48 2 Liverpool 85 (03-A ) Northport 76 3 Northport 90 (11-A ) Liverpool 94 4 Chaminade 118 (CHSAA) St. Anthonys 107 5 Saratoga 119 (02-A ) Saratoga 121 6 St. Anthonys 140 (CHSAA) Chaminade 142 7 Webster Thomas 223 (05-A ) Mount Academy 242 8 Syosset 228 (08-A ) Ithaca 251 9 Xavier 271 (CHSAA) Webster Thomas 263 10 Collegiate 282 (AIS ) Collegiate 264 11 Maine-Endwell 284 (04-B ) Xavier 284 12 Mount Academy 291 (09-D ) Maine-Endwell 322 13 Ithaca 317 (04-A ) Syosset 333 14 East Aurora 336 (06-B ) Victor 363 15 Victor 338 (05-A ) Est Aurora 391 16 RC Ketcham 399 (01-A ) RC Ketcham 403 17 Franklin Acad 500 (10-B ) UNA-NY-Clifton Park 415 18 Queensbury 515 (02-B ) Franklin Academy 506 Queensbury 529 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite to win ... Liverpool ran very well to win the Federation Meet ... Northport is capable of grapping an auto-qualifying spot ... Saratoga and Chaminade are definitely in contention for a top-three finish. Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last two years - It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as the primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... Strong probability that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances. Individual Race ... Looks very competitive for the win ... |
The Top-Ranked Runners Entering NXN NY Regional: 1 Mickey Burke 12 05-A Rush-Henrietta 193 (at Footlocker) 2 Mike Brannigan 11 11-A Northport 193 Team 3 Bryce Millar 11 03-A FM 192 Team 4 Brian Cook 12 01-B Pearl River 192 Individual 5 TJ Hornberger 12 06-B Lake Shore 190 Individual 6 Andrew Berge 12 03-A FM 190 Team 7 Josh Dyrland 12 05-A Irondequoit 190 Individual 8 Thomas Slattery 12 CHS Chaminade 189 Team 9 Marco Pompilj 11 AIS Collegiate 189 Team 10 Aidan Tooker 10 02-A Saratoga 189 Team 11 Stephen Booker 12 02-A Bethlehem 188 Individual 12 Sean Kelly 12 CHS Chaminade 187 Team 13 Ryan Udvadia 12 11-B Shoreham-Wading R 187 (at Footlocker) 14 Peter Ryan 10 03-A FM 187 Team 15 Dan Muldoon 11 03-A Liverpool 187 Team 16 Daniel Huben 12 06-A Clarence 185 Individual 17 Ben Petrella 10 03-A Liverpool 185 Team 18 Nick Ciolkowski 11 05-A McQuaid 185 ------ 19 Patrick Tucker 11 CHS St. Anthonys 185 Team 20 Tim McGowan 12 11-A Northport 185 Team 21 Kyle Gronostaj 12 02-A Columbia 185 Individual 22 Benito Muniz 11 01-A Carmel 184 Individual 23 Luke Gavigan 11 01-B Tappan Zee 183 Individual 24 Connor Buck 11 03-A Liverpool 182 Team 25 Zakaria Adam 12 03-A Proctor 182 Individual 26 Jeriqho Gadway 11 07-C Plattsburgh 182 (at Footlocker) 27 Louis Santelli III 12 CHS St. Anthonys 182 Team 28 John Rice 11 CHS Xavier 181 Team 29 Dan Dracup 11 04-A Ithaca 181 Team 30 Jake Johnson 10 02-A Colonie 181 ------ 31 Tyler Ranke 12 05-A Hilton 180 Individual 32 Sam Chauvin 12 04-B Corning 180 (at Footlocker) |
Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again |
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 46 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 32 2 Saratoga 105 (02-A ) Saratoga 88 3 East Aurora 106 (06-B ) East Aurora 142 4 Queensbury 169 (02-B ) Elmira District 143 5 John Jay CR 205 (01-B ) John Jay CR 146 6 Pearl River 206 (01-B ) Queensbury 206 7 Burnt Hills 210 (02-B ) Pearl River 222 8 Elmira District 211 (04-A ) Webster Thomas 229 9 Webster Thomas 212 (05-A ) Burnt Hills 254 10 Suffern 213 (01-A ) Liverpool 259 11 Rush-Henrietta 247 (05-A ) Suffern 267 12 Liverpool 251 (03-A ) Guilderland 306 13 Guilderland 263 (02-A ) Rush-Henrietta 319 14 Syosset 330 (08-A ) Syosset 331 15 Westhill-Ludden 350 (03-B ) Westhill-Ludden 353 16 Hilton 400 (05-A ) Sachem East 359 17 Sachem East 418 (11-A ) Hilton 460 |
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race. East Aurora has a new runner ... Sophia Tasselmyer (who finished 2nd at the State Meet in Class B while running for Starpoint high school) has transferred to East Aurora, and apparently, NXN is going to let her run for the East Aurora team; therefore, I included her in the team projection above .... I believe it's a poor choice on the part of NXN to allow any runner to compete for a team at NXN that was never eligible to compete for that team during the official XC season ... Sophia Tasselmyer was eligible and did compete for Starpoint HS during the official NY season (not East Aurora); despite transferring to East Aurora immediately after the State Meet, she would not have been eligible to compete for East Aurora at the Federation meet (and it doesn't matter because East Aurora skipped Feds) ... But it's Nike party, so they make the rules despite what's posted on their web-site. The Saratoga girls have run both very good and bad races this season ... IF Saratoga runs well, they are the choice to finish 2nd (barely over East Aurora) ... Should Saratoga finish 3rd and not run at a level equal to their better performances of the season, they will probably not get selected as an "At-Large" team because there appears to be sentiment amongst some committee selectors to exclude teams dominated by junior high runners ... Currently, the Monarch CO girls are pretty much a certain selection as an "At-Large" team (and I expect two California teams as well) ... Whoever finishes 3rd and 4th here MUST run well. Individual Race ... Looks competitive ... Five of the top nine ranked runners are running at Footlocker Northeast ... |
The Top-Ranked Runners Entering NXN NY Regional: 1 Jessica Lawson 9 04-B Corning 144 (at Footlocker) 2 Katie Lembo 12 05-A Penfield 144 (at Footlocker) 3 Megan Reilly 10 09-A Warwick 144 (at Footlocker) 4 Annika Avery 11 03-A FM 143 Team 5 Alex Cooper 11 05-A Rush-Henrietta 142 Team 6 Abbey Wheeler 10 04-A Elmira District 141 Team 7 Anna Flynn 10 01-A Ursuline 138 (at Footlocker) 8 Kennedy Jensen 12 05-A Canandaigua 138 ------ 9 Marissa Saenger 12 06-A Clarence 137 (at Footlocker) 10 Jenna Farrell 10 03-A FM 136 Team 11 Sophia Tasselmyer 10 06-B East Aurora 135 Team 12 Stephanie Gerland 10 08-B Garden City 135 Individual 13 Alana Pearl 12 03-A FM 134 Team 14 Bella Burda 11 01-A Arlington 134 Individual 15 Denise Branch 12 PSA Benjamin Cardozo 134 (at Footlocker) 16 Siobhan Quinn 11 05-A Rush-Henrietta 133 Team 17 Erin Jaskot 12 01-B Tappan Zee 133 Individual 18 Rachel Ludwikowski 9 01-A Suffern 133 Team 19 Marta McLaughlin 12 06-B East Aurora 133 Team 20 Kate Zendell 11 01-A Suffern 132 Team 21 Gianna Frontera 12 09-A Newburgh 132 (entered both NXN & Footlocker) 22 Kaylee Scott 11 02-B Holy Names 132 Individual 23 Kelly Hayes 12 01-B Pearl River 131 Team 24 Tiana Guevara 12 11-B Miller Place 131 ------ 25 Grace Moore 10 08-A Calhoun 130 ------ 26 Ally Ortega 11 06-B Sweet Home 130 Individual 27 Jessica Howe 11 03-A FM 130 Team 28 Laura Leff 12 03-A West Genesee 130 ------ 29 Kalleigh Forrester 12 09-A Newburgh 129 Individual 30 Amanda Vestri 9 05-A Webster Thomas 128 Team 31 Autumn Albrecht 11 05-A Brockport 128 Individual 32 Beatrice Boylan 11 09-B Cornwall 128 ------ |