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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2013

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 30, 2013

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 27, 2013 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED Dec 1, 2013

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED Dec 1, 2013

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Link to NY Championship Race Entries - Club Names and Individuals ]

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     53     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius        48
 2   Liverpool                85     (03-A )     Northport                   76
 3   Northport                90     (11-A )     Liverpool                   94
 4   Chaminade               118     (CHSAA)     St. Anthonys               107
 5   Saratoga                119     (02-A )     Saratoga                   121
 6   St. Anthonys            140     (CHSAA)     Chaminade                  142
 7   Webster Thomas          223     (05-A )     Mount Academy              242
 8   Syosset                 228     (08-A )     Ithaca                     251
 9   Xavier                  271     (CHSAA)     Webster Thomas             263
 10  Collegiate              282     (AIS  )     Collegiate                 264
 11  Maine-Endwell           284     (04-B )     Xavier                     284
 12  Mount Academy           291     (09-D )     Maine-Endwell              322
 13  Ithaca                  317     (04-A )     Syosset                    333
 14  East Aurora             336     (06-B )     Victor                     363
 15  Victor                  338     (05-A )     Est Aurora                 391
 16  RC Ketcham              399     (01-A )     RC Ketcham                 403
 17  Franklin Acad           500     (10-B )     UNA-NY-Clifton Park        415
 18  Queensbury              515     (02-B )     Franklin Academy           506
                                                 Queensbury                 529

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite to win ... Liverpool ran very well to win the Federation Meet ... Northport is capable of grapping an auto-qualifying spot ... Saratoga and Chaminade are definitely in contention for a top-three finish.

Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last two years -  It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as the primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... Strong probability that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.

Individual Race ... Looks very competitive for the win ...

 
The Top-Ranked Runners Entering NXN NY Regional:
1   Mickey Burke          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         193  (at Footlocker)
2   Mike Brannigan        11   11-A    Northport              193     Team
3   Bryce Millar          11   03-A    FM                     192     Team
4   Brian Cook            12   01-B    Pearl River            192   Individual
5   TJ Hornberger         12   06-B    Lake Shore             190   Individual
6   Andrew Berge          12   03-A    FM                     190     Team
7   Josh Dyrland          12   05-A    Irondequoit            190   Individual
8   Thomas Slattery       12   CHS     Chaminade              189     Team
9   Marco Pompilj         11   AIS     Collegiate             189     Team
10  Aidan Tooker          10   02-A    Saratoga               189     Team
11  Stephen Booker        12   02-A    Bethlehem              188   Individual
12  Sean Kelly            12   CHS     Chaminade              187     Team
13  Ryan Udvadia          12   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R      187  (at Footlocker)
14  Peter Ryan            10   03-A    FM                     187     Team
15  Dan Muldoon           11   03-A    Liverpool              187     Team
16  Daniel Huben          12   06-A    Clarence               185   Individual
17  Ben Petrella          10   03-A    Liverpool              185     Team
18  Nick Ciolkowski       11   05-A    McQuaid                185    ------
19  Patrick Tucker        11   CHS     St. Anthonys           185     Team
20  Tim McGowan           12   11-A    Northport              185     Team
21  Kyle Gronostaj        12   02-A    Columbia               185   Individual
22  Benito Muniz          11   01-A    Carmel                 184   Individual
23  Luke Gavigan          11   01-B    Tappan Zee             183   Individual
24  Connor Buck           11   03-A    Liverpool              182     Team
25  Zakaria Adam          12   03-A    Proctor                182   Individual
26  Jeriqho Gadway        11   07-C    Plattsburgh            182  (at Footlocker)
27  Louis Santelli III    12   CHS     St. Anthonys           182     Team
28  John Rice             11   CHS     Xavier                 181     Team
29  Dan Dracup            11   04-A    Ithaca                 181     Team
30  Jake Johnson          10   02-A    Colonie                181    ------
31  Tyler Ranke           12   05-A    Hilton                 180   Individual
32  Sam Chauvin           12   04-B    Corning                180  (at Footlocker)	

 

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
  1  Fayetteville-Manlius     46     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius        32
  2  Saratoga                105     (02-A )     Saratoga                    88
  3  East Aurora             106     (06-B )     East Aurora                142
  4  Queensbury              169     (02-B )     Elmira District            143
  5  John Jay CR             205     (01-B )     John Jay CR                146
  6  Pearl River             206     (01-B )     Queensbury                 206
  7  Burnt Hills             210     (02-B )     Pearl River                222
  8  Elmira District         211     (04-A )     Webster Thomas             229
  9  Webster Thomas          212     (05-A )     Burnt Hills                254
  10 Suffern                 213     (01-A )     Liverpool                  259
  11 Rush-Henrietta          247     (05-A )     Suffern                    267
  12 Liverpool               251     (03-A )     Guilderland                306
  13 Guilderland             263     (02-A )     Rush-Henrietta             319
  14 Syosset                 330     (08-A )     Syosset                    331
  15 Westhill-Ludden         350     (03-B )     Westhill-Ludden            353
  16 Hilton                  400     (05-A )     Sachem East                359
  17 Sachem East             418     (11-A )     Hilton                     460
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race.

East Aurora has a new runner ... Sophia Tasselmyer (who finished 2nd at the State Meet in Class B while running for Starpoint high school) has transferred to East Aurora, and apparently, NXN is going to let her run for the East Aurora team; therefore, I included her in the team projection above .... I believe it's a poor choice on the part of NXN to allow any runner to compete for a team at NXN that was never eligible to compete for that team during the official XC season ... Sophia Tasselmyer was eligible and did compete for Starpoint HS during the official NY season (not East Aurora); despite transferring to East Aurora immediately after the State Meet, she would not have been eligible to compete for East Aurora at the Federation meet (and it doesn't matter because East Aurora skipped Feds) ... But it's Nike party, so they make the rules despite what's posted on their web-site.

The Saratoga girls have run both very good and bad races this season ... IF Saratoga runs well, they are the choice to finish 2nd (barely over East Aurora) ... Should Saratoga finish 3rd and not run at a level equal to their better performances of the season, they will probably not get selected as an "At-Large" team because there appears to be sentiment amongst some committee selectors to exclude teams dominated by junior high runners ... Currently, the Monarch CO girls are pretty much a certain selection as an "At-Large" team (and I expect two California teams as well) ... Whoever finishes 3rd and 4th here MUST run well.

Individual Race ... Looks competitive ... Five of the top nine ranked runners are running at Footlocker Northeast ...

 
The Top-Ranked Runners Entering NXN NY Regional:
1   Jessica Lawson        9    04-B    Corning                144  (at Footlocker)
2   Katie Lembo           12   05-A    Penfield               144  (at Footlocker)
3   Megan Reilly          10   09-A    Warwick                144  (at Footlocker)
4   Annika Avery          11   03-A    FM                     143     Team
5   Alex Cooper           11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         142     Team
6   Abbey Wheeler         10   04-A    Elmira District        141     Team
7   Anna Flynn            10   01-A    Ursuline               138  (at Footlocker)
8   Kennedy Jensen        12   05-A    Canandaigua            138    ------
9   Marissa Saenger       12   06-A    Clarence               137  (at Footlocker)
10  Jenna Farrell         10   03-A    FM                     136     Team
11  Sophia Tasselmyer     10   06-B    East Aurora            135     Team
12  Stephanie Gerland     10   08-B    Garden City            135   Individual
13  Alana Pearl           12   03-A    FM                     134     Team
14  Bella Burda           11   01-A    Arlington              134   Individual
15  Denise Branch         12   PSA     Benjamin Cardozo       134  (at Footlocker)
16  Siobhan Quinn         11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         133     Team
17  Erin Jaskot           12   01-B    Tappan Zee             133   Individual
18  Rachel Ludwikowski    9    01-A    Suffern                133     Team
19  Marta McLaughlin      12   06-B    East Aurora            133     Team
20  Kate Zendell          11   01-A    Suffern                132     Team
21  Gianna Frontera       12   09-A    Newburgh               132  (entered both NXN & Footlocker)
22  Kaylee Scott          11   02-B    Holy Names             132   Individual
23  Kelly Hayes           12   01-B    Pearl River            131     Team
24  Tiana Guevara         12   11-B    Miller Place           131    ------
25  Grace Moore           10   08-A    Calhoun                130    ------
26  Ally Ortega           11   06-B    Sweet Home             130   Individual
27  Jessica Howe          11   03-A    FM                     130     Team
28  Laura Leff            12   03-A    West Genesee           130    ------
29  Kalleigh Forrester    12   09-A    Newburgh               129   Individual
30  Amanda Vestri         9    05-A    Webster Thomas         128     Team
31  Autumn Albrecht       11   05-A    Brockport              128   Individual
32  Beatrice Boylan       11   09-B    Cornwall               128    ------