NYSPHSAA State Meet 2013 - Projections & Preview 2013 |
Please remember:
the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they
are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ...
Projected Scores were posted on
November 5, 2013
... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after
the meet ...
ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 10, 2013 NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet. |
ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 10, 2013
Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius favored |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 38 Fayetteville-Manlius 37 2 Northport (11) 49 Northport 61 3 Saratoga (02) 74 Saratoga Springs 61 4 Webster Thomas (05) 116 Syosset 124 5 Syosset (08) 135 North Rockland 127 6 North Rockland (01) 144 Clarence 144 7 Warwick Valley (09) 145 Webster Thomas 162 8 Clarence (06) 147 Ithaca 167 9 Ithaca (04) 187 Warwick Valley 195 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite in the Class A race ... Fayetteville-Manlius has an excellent one-two punch with Bryce Millar and Andrew Berge ... if Peter Ryan can join the front duo (as he did at sectionals) with the other scorers running normal races, Fayetteville-Manlius will be very difficult to beat. Northport has posted some excellent performances this season including their sectional race ... Northport and Fayetteville-Manlius were ranked 8th and 6th in the nation by DyeStat, respectively, just prior to sectionals ... and both teams performed really well at sectionals ... Northport appeared very strong in the pre-season based on excellent track performances by multiple guys, and that potential is now showing itself in cross country ... This could be a very close team race. Saratoga has a very good team, but they need all five scorers to perform well. Individual Race ... This is an excellent individual race ... As noted in the list below, 10 guys with overall speed ratings between 195 and 186, and four guys at 190 or higher ... Mickey Burke (Rush-Henrietta) broke the McQuaid Invite course record earlier this season ... Mike Brannigan (Northport) won the championship race at the big New Jersey Shore Coaches Invite at Holmdel Park with the fastest time of the meet (15:45) and he recently broke the 16:00 minute barrier at Sunken Meadow (which some people think is worth more than the 193 speed rating I had for the modified Sunken Meadow course) ... The three FM guys (Bryce Millar, Andrew Berge and Peter Ryan) ran very well as a group at sectionals ... Josh Dyrland (Irondequoit) had a 190 speed rating at the Seneca Invite ... Should be very interesting to see how this race plays out in terms of tactics and results. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States: 1 Mickey Burke 12 05-A Rush-Henrietta 195 2 Mike Brannigan 11 11-A Northport 192 3 Bryce Millar 11 03-A FM 192 4 Andrew Berge 12 03-A FM 190 5 Peter Ryan 10 03-A FM 187 6 Josh Dyrland 12 05-A Irondequoit 186 7 Aidan Tooker 10 02-A Saratoga 186 8 Daniel Huben 12 06-A Clarence 186 9 Ben Petrella 10 03-A Liverpool 186 10 Stephen Booker 12 02-A Bethlehem 186 11 Nick Ciolkowski 11 05-A McQuaid 185 12 Zakaria Adam 12 03-A Proctor 184 13 Kyle Gronostaj 12 02-A Columbia 184 14 Dan Muldoon 11 03-A Liverpool 183 15 Tim McGowan 12 11-A Northport 183 16 Tyler Ranke 12 05-A Hilton 182 17 Jake Johnson 10 02-A Colonie 181 18 Dan Dracup 11 04-A Ithaca 180 19 Adam Hunt 11 03-A FM 179 20 Connor Buck 11 03-A Liverpool 179 21 Benito Muniz 11 01-A Carmel 179 22 Jay Navin 12 02-A Saratoga 178 23 Keith Johnson 12 05-A Webster Thomas 178 24 Jack McGowan 12 11-A Northport 177 25 Kyle Barber 11 03-A FM 177 |
Boys Class B - Pittsford Mendon favored in a match-up of good teams |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Pittsford Mendon (05) 61 Pittsford Mendon 57 2 Port Jervis (09) 79 Corning 64 3 Corning (04) 80 Port Jervis 79 4 Tappan Zee (01) 99 Burnt Hills 91 5 Burnt Hills (02) 101 Shoreham Wading Riv 96 6 Shoreham-Wading Riv (11) 103 Tappan Zee 119 7 Sweet Home (06) 144 Sweet Home 164 8 Whitesboro (03) 210 Whitesboro 225 9 Wantagh (08) 216 Wantagh 246 10 Franklin Academy (10) 275 Franklin Academy 261 11 Peru (07) 362 Peru 362 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Pittsford Mendon is the favorite in a race with some good competition ... Pittsford Mendon had the best Class B team score based on speed ratings at all eleven sectional races, and Pittsford Mendon raced on a sectional course softened up a bit by weather and prior races. Port Jervis and Corning look like a toss-up to me, and both are within striking distance of Pittsford Mendon ... Tappan Zee, Burnt Hills and Shoreham Wading River look like a toss-up as well. A question from a number viewers during the season and recently - "Why is Corning a Class B team??" ..... The reason is that the NYSPHSAA has instituted a new "Merger Policy" for Schools that combine for a sport ... Corning is comprised of Corning East (616 BED number) and Corning West (624 BED number), so their combined enrollment number is actually 616+624=1240 ... an enrollment of 1240 is Class A by the old standard ... The new Merger Policy starts with the enrollment of the larger school (624 is this case) and then adds a number between 10% and 50% of the enrollment of the smaller school ... somebody in the NYSPHSAA offices decided that 40% was appropriate for the Corning merger (40% of 616 = 246); therefore, the new Corning merger number equals 624+246=870 which is Class B in cross country. Individual Race ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) and Brian Cook (Pearl River) are two of the top runners in the State (all classes) ... and Ryan Udvadia (Shoreham WR) has shown he is capable of a big performance ... other good runners make this a very good race. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States: 1 TJ Hornberger 12 06-B Lake Shore 190 2 Brian Cook 12 01-B Pearl River 189 3 Ryan Udvadia 12 11-B Shoreham-Wading R 186 4 Luke Gavigan 11 01-B Tappan Zee 182 5 Sam Chauvin 12 04-B Corning 181 6 Will Ronchetti 12 05-B Brighton 179 7 Justin Van Epps 12 02-B CBA-Albany 178 8 Jeremy Miekley 12 11-B Miller Place 177 9 Nathan Doyle 12 05-B Pittsford Mend 176 10 Liam Burke 11 01-B Tappan Zee 176 11 John Rabideau 12 02-B Burnt Hills 175 12 Kobie Lane 11 09-B Port Jervis 175 13 Tom Moshier 12 04-B Corning 174 14 John McCarthy 12 04-B Corning 174 15 Matt Geraci 11 05-B Honeoye FL 174 16 Cody Brizzolara 12 04-B Maine-Endwell 174 17 Kenny Vasbinder 11 06-B East Aurora 174 18 Jack Wesley 12 05-B Pittsford Mend 174 19 Mike Watts 12 11-B Islip 173 20 Connor Green 12 05-B Pittsford Mend 173 |
Boys Class C - Holland Patent the favorite |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Holland Patent (03) 95 Holland Patent 76 2 Corinth (02) 112 Susquehanna Valley 87 3 Livonia (05) 115 Pleasantville 111 4 Pleasantville (01) 119 Alden 125 5 Susquehanna Valley (04) 122 Port Jefferson 125 6 Alden (06) 124 Onteora 139 7 Onteora (09) 153 Corinth 149 8 Port Jefferson (11) 160 Beekmantown 157 9 Beekmantown (07) 171 Livonia 200 10 Gouverneur (10) 206 Gouverneur 214 11 Oyster Bay (08) 233 Oyster Bay 220 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Some uncertainty is involved in the Class C projection ... Holland Patent has improved very nicely in recent races and becomes the favorite based on performance at sectionals .... Not much separates Corinth, Livonia, Pleasantville, Susquehanna Valley and Alden, and they are not that far behind Holland Patent. Individual Race ... John Flannery (Bronxville) is the top-rated Class C runner entering States, but 12 other runners are within 9 speed rating points ... Jeriqho Gadway (Plattsburgh), Owen Barber (Allegany-Limestone) and Tanner Flint (Corinth) are the next top-rated runners ... Looks very competitive. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States: 1 John Flannery 12 01-C Bronxville 177 2 Jeriqho Gadway 11 07-C Plattsburgh 175 3 Owen Barber 10 06-C Allegany-Limestone 175 4 Tanner Flint 12 02-C Corinth 173 5 Jake Acito 12 01-C North Salem 171 6 James Burke 11 11-C Port Jefferson 171 7 Dylan Servos 11 06-C Alden 170 8 Bryce Zayachek 11 03-C Holland Patent 170 9 Barrett Celecki 12 03-C Holland Patent 170 10 Richard Buchanan 11 04-C Susquehanna Val 169 11 Jack Yaworsky 12 03-C Clinton 169 12 Jordan Ahrens 12 02-C Ft. Plain-Canajo 169 13 Kevin Langone 12 01-C Pawling 168 |
Boys Class D - Mount Academy the favorite to repeat |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Mount Academy (09) 54 Mount Academy 53 2 Greenwich (02) 75 Greenwich 61 3 Barker (06) 93 Barker 122 4 Sauquoit Valley (03) 100 Sauquoit Valley 122 5 East Rochester (05) 105 East Rochester 130 6 Watkins Glen (04) 130 Watkins Glen 142 7 Haldane (01) 152 Haldane 147 8 Norwood-Norfolk (10) 209 Ticonderoga 167 9 Ticonderoga (07) 217 Norwood-Norfolk 209 10 Stony Brook (11) 263 Stony Brook 255 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Mount Academy was the "new" school in 2012 and they won the State Class D race handily ... Mount Academy returns in 2013 with a very deep team and that depth helps to make them the favorite to win again. Greenwich performed nicely at sectionals due, in part, to a return to form of top runner Jeremy Spiezo ... Barker finished 2nd at States last year and appear capable of doing the same again this year ... Barker, Sauquoit Valley and East Rochester seem evenly matched (so the order projected above could easily get switched). Individual Race ... Corey Wefing (Maple Grove) has been a top-rated Class D runner throughout much of his high school career and enters this race as a slight favorite ... Jeremy Spiezo (Greenwich) was side-lined part of this season with an injury, but has been steadily returning to form since his return and is a serious contender to win this race ...A number of guys listed below seem capable of finishing in the top three. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States: 1 Corey Wefing 12 06-D Maple Grove 180 2 Jeremy Spiezio 11 02-D Greenwich 176 3 Matt Gill 12 04-D Watkins Glen 174 4 Daryn Hutchings 11 02-D Argyle 172 5 Jordan Healy 12 02-D Maple Hill 171 6 Everett Geiger 11 05-D Caledonia Mumford 170 7 Pat Murphy 11 02-D Duanesburg 170 8 Nicholas Spina 12 03-D Sauquoit Valley 169 9 Keith Baird 11 09-D Mount Academy 167 10 Baxter Wareham 10 09-D Mount Academy 166 11 Jacob Hanss 12 05-D East Rochester 166 12 Mitch Cicero 11 05-D Perry 164 13 Martin Kurtz 10 09-D Mount Academy 164 14 Jason Jenks 12 04-D Groton 163 15 Dawson Bathgate 10 05-D East Rochester 163 |
Girls Class A - FM odds-on favorite with Saratoga second again |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 38 Fayetteville-Manlius 31 2 Saratoga (02) 82 Saratoga Springs 67 3 Webster Thomas (05) 101 Suffern 101 4 Suffern (01) 114 Elmira 106 5 Elmira District (04) 119 Webster Thomas 112 6 Clarence (05) 150 Northport 158 7 Northport (11) 151 Clarence 162 8 Syosset (08) 172 Syosset 187 9 Valley Central (09) 190 Valley Central 210 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is one of the top team in the nation (again) and the odds-on favorite to win this race ... Saratoga has a young team with three 8th-graders finishing in the top four positions at sectionals ... Saratoga has had both good and "off" team performances this season, but they capable of performing very well. Webster Thomas is actually 2nd-best based on speed-rated scoring at sectionals ... Not much separates Webster Thomas, Suffern and Elmira and all seem capable of finishing at least 3rd. Individual Race ... Looks very competitive and is probably the best girl's race of the day ... I could make a case for 8 or 9 girls winning this race ... Katie Lembo (Penfield) is consistent at a very high level and it will likely require an excellent performance by another runner to beat her ... Annika Avery (FM) popped another big performance at sectionals ... Megan Reilly (Warwick) won the Class A race last year with her best performance of the season ... Bella Burda (Arlington) was 2nd last year ... Kennedy Jensen (Canandaigua) had the best girl's performance at the Queensbury pre-State Invitational, and she did it running most of the race with one shoe ... Abbey Wheeler (Elmira) beat many of the top runners in this race at McQuaid where she popped the best individual speed rating by a NY girl to date (147) ... Marissa Saenger (Clarence) is a Footlocker Finalist returning from a season-ending injury during outdoor track ... Anna Flynn (Ursuline) has been improving steadily and impressively ... Ten of the top 15 girls listed below qualified for either Footlocker or NXN Nationals last year, and now add several more who are capable of doing the same this year ... A truly excellent Class A race. |
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States: 1 Katie Lembo 12 05-A Penfield 145 2 Annika Avery 11 03-A FM 143 3 Kennedy Jensen 12 05-A Canandaigua 140 4 Megan Reilly 10 09-A Warwick 139 5 Alex Cooper 11 05-A Rush-Henrietta 138 6 Abbey Wheeler 10 04-A Elmira District 138 7 Bella Burda 11 01-A Arlington 137 8 Anna Flynn 10 01-A Ursuline 136 9 Marissa Saenger 12 06-A Clarence 136 10 Alana Pearl 12 03-A FM 135 11 Jenna Farrell 10 03-A FM 135 12 Siobhan Quinn 11 05-A Rush-Henrietta 134 13 Autumn Albrecht 11 05-A Brockport 132 14 Kate Zendell 11 01-A Suffern 132 15 Gianna Frontera 12 09-A Newburgh 131 16 Laura Leff 12 03-A West Genesee 131 17 Amanda Vestri 9 05-A Webster Thomas 129 18 Vicky Martinez 10 01-A Fox Lane 129 19 Grace Moore 10 08-A Calhoun 129 20 Maryanna Lansing 10 02-A Shaker 128 21 Jessica Howe 11 03-A FM 126 22 Rachel Ludwikowski 9 01-A Suffern 126 23 Kalleigh Forrester 12 09-A Newburgh 126 24 Samantha Vetter 8 02-A Saratoga 125 25 Lauren Chapey 10 01-A Mamaroneck 123 26 Reilly Siebert 8 08-A Syosset 123 27 Brigid Brennan 12 11-A Northport 123 28 Lauren Gruber 10 08-A Syosset 122 |
Girls Class B - East Aurora & Pearl River |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 East Aurora (06) 78 Queensbury 86 2 Pearl River (01) 82 Pearl River 92 3 Queensbury (02) 92 East Aurora 92 4 Corning (04) 111 Corning 116 5 Cornwall (09) 130 Miller Place 117 6 Pittsford Mendon (05) 131 Cornwall 132 7 Miller Place (11) 132 Pittsford Mendon 134 8 North Shore (08) 133 North Shore 160 9 Westhill-Ludden (03) 201 Westhill-Ludden 194 10 Franklin Academy (10) 226 Franklin Academy 227 11 Peru (07) 341 Peru 347 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora and Pearl River are effectively even-up on most factors ... East Aurora finished 2nd at States last year and then ran well enough at the NXN-New York regional to qualify as an "at-large" team for Nationals where they finished 4th ... East Aurora usually performs well at this point in the season, so they get a slight advantage ... Pearl River is definitely capable of performing at a winning level. Queensbury is an interesting team in this race because they nearly equal in scoring potential to the top two (winning a noticeable percentage a computer simulated races) ... But importantly, Queensbury is racing at their home course ... They are capable of winning. Corning could finish in the top three with a good performance .... Cornwall, Pittsford Mendon, Miller Place and North Shore are even-up at the 5th to 8th positions, and it's a guess where they will actually finish. Individual Race ... Jessica Lawson (Corning) is the favorite to win ... Marta McLaughlin (East Aurora) and Sophia Tasselmyer (Starpoint) had a very competitive race against each other at the Section 6 sectional (Tasselmyer winning by 0.3 seconds) ... Erin Jaskot (Tappan Zee) has been improving nicely and Kelly Hayes (Pearl River) has had some very good performances. |
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States: 1 Jessica Lawson 9 04-B Corning 142 2 Marta McLaughlin 12 06-B East Aurora 134 3 Sophia Tasselmyer 10 06-B Starpoint 134 4 Erin Jaskot 12 01-B Tappan Zee 134 5 Kelly Hayes 12 01-B Pearl River 133 6 Stephanie Gerland 10 08-B Garden City 132 7 Ally Ortega 11 06-B Sweet Home 131 8 Kaylee Scott 11 02-B Holy Names 130 9 Tiana Guevara 12 11-B Miller Place 130 10 Beatrice Boylan 11 09-B Cornwall 127 11 Megan Kellogg 12 02-B Queensbury 125 12 Fiona Danieu 10 06-B East Aurora 125 13 Rachel Fairbanks 11 03-B Jamesville Dewitt 125 (out injured) 14 Aileen Doyle 11 06-B Sweet Home 125 15 Isabelle Page 11 01-B John Jay CR 124 16 Carolyn Hopkins 12 06-B Williamsville S 123 17 Laura Nolan 10 11-B Miller Place 122 18 Lydia Williams 8 02-B Holy Names 122 19 Emily Guinther 11 02-B Queensbury 122 20 Mary Visca 11 05-B Pittsford Suth 121 21 Mary Barger 11 05-B Pittsford Mend 121 22 Mary Kate O'Meara 12 01-B Nanuet 120 23 Daniela LoCastro 10 08-B Cold Spring Har 120 24 Brittany Fuller 11 09-B Port Jervis 120 |
Girls Class C - Bronxville the odds-on favorite |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Bronxville (01) 38 Bronxville 45 2 Canton (10) 89 Canton 71 2 Skaneateles (03) 92 Skaneateles 107 4 Wayland Cohocton (05) 105 Akron 130 5 Akron (06) 132 Wayland-Cohocton 136 6 Friends Academy (08) 133 Broadalbin-Perth 146 7 Broadalbin-Perth (02) 134 Friends Academy 148 8 Tri-Valley (09) 220 Tri-Valley 218 9 Trumansburg (04) 221 Trumansburg 224 10 Mattituck (11) 240 Mattituck 260 11 Saranac (07) 250 Saranac 263 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the many-time defending Class C champion and a very solid favorite to win again. Little seems to separate Canton,
Skaneateles and Wayland Cohocton ... Canton raced
well at States last year in the Class B race, and could have an improved
seasonal performance this year. |
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States: 1 Kaitlyn Neal 10 03-C Skaneateles 125 2 Meghan Curtin 10 05-C Wayland Cohocton 124 3 Rachel Garn 12 03-C Marcellus 123 4 Kaitlin Ryan 9 01-C Bronxville 121 5 Laura Pierce 12 10-C Canton 121 6 Julia Flower 10 02-C Schalmont 121 7 Megan Ann Pierce 12 03-C CBA 117 8 Courtney Campbell 12 01-C Bronxville 116 9 Ashley Watson 9 02-C Schuylerville 116 10 Kelly Bochnewetch 12 06-C Newfane 115 11 Isabella Pascucci 11 08-C Friends Acad 115 12 Emilie Hoffer 12 01-C Bronxville 113 13 Mika Andrews 9 01-C Dobbs Ferry 113 14 Julia Armstrong 12 09-C Onteora 112 15 Mariah Smith 10 05-C Hornell 111 16 Clarissa Hensler 9 05-C Livonia 111 17 Abby Gugel 10 03-C Jordan-Elbridge 111 |
Girls Class D - Maple Grove & Tully - Too Close to Call |
Projected Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Maple Grove (06) 59 Tully 45 2 Tully (03) 59 Maple Grove 76 3 Seton Catholic (07) 90 Seton Catholic 78 4 Greenwich (02) 93 Greenwich 87 5 Keshequa (05) 94 Keshequa 140 6 Norwood-Norfolk (10) 119 Norwood-Norfolk 147 7 Watkins Glen (04) 160 Watkins Glen 157 8 Haldane (01) 194 Stony Brook 164 9 Stony Brook (11) 207 Haldane 192 10 S.S. Seward (09) 234 S.S. Seward 264 |
Pre-Race Analysis ... Maple Grove is not only the defending Class D champion, Maple Grove has won the Class D title at the last three State Meets ... Tully drops down from Class C to Class D, and at the State Meet last year, Tully finished 2nd to Bronxville in the Class C race. All thing considered, Maple Grove and Tully have roughly equal probabilities of winning based on form entering the State Meet ... placement of finishers has importance at all five scoring positions, especially at positions 3 to 5 ... and where runners from other teams insert themselves between the Maple Grove and Tully scorers has added significance in this race .... Based on speed ratings from the sectional races, Maple Grove has the advantage, but the Tully girls had some sickness at sectionals which resulted in off-performances ... I gave Maple Grove the top spot above because they are the three-time defending champions. Actually, Seton Catholic, Greenwich and Keshequa are not that far behind and are within striking distance of winning because none of these teams have true depth ... One or two off-performances by Maple Grove or Tully leaves an opening for the other teams if they race well ... Not much separates Seton Catholic, Greenwich and Keshequa with Keshequa getting an advantage based solely on sectional results. Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) has been racing well and enters the Class D race as the individual favorite ... Sage Hurta won the Class D race at States in 2010 ... Hope Pietrocarlo (Maple Grove) has come on strong in last couple of races (just like last year) and is a serious challenger for the individual win ... Several other girls listed below are capable of popping a big performance. |
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States: 1 Sage Hurta 10 03-D Hamilton 129 2 Hope Pietrocarlo 10 06-D Maple Grove 123 3 Kaycie Saucier 10 10-D Norwood-Norfolk 117 4 Margaret Champagne 10 07-D Seton Catholic 113 5 Ashleigh Crawford 10 03-D Tully 112 6 Sarah Lapham 12 02-D Greenwich 112 7 Natalie Mogavero 8 03-D Weedsport 112 8 Kristin Ratliff 10 03-D Cooperstown 108 9 Tori Spiezio 10 02-D Greenwich 108 10 Ellen Jaworski 10 03-D Tully 108 11 Caroline Benson 12 06-D Maple Grove 103 12 Samantha Fanion 9 03-D Cooperstown 103 13 Makenna Cooley 12 03-D Remsen 102 14 Holly Eliason 12 06-D Sherman 102 15 Taylor Norris 12 06-D Maple Grove 102 16 Ashley Leta 12 07-D Seton Catholic 101 17 Lindsay Piriano 12 05-D Keshequa 100 |