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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2013 - Projections & Preview 2013

 

Please remember: the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Projected Scores were posted on November 5, 2013 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 10, 2013

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 10, 2013

[ Girls projections ]

 

 Boys Class A  -  Fayetteville-Manlius favored
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      38        Fayetteville-Manlius   37
  2   Northport            (11)      49        Northport              61
  3   Saratoga             (02)      74        Saratoga Springs       61
  4   Webster Thomas       (05)     116        Syosset               124
  5   Syosset              (08)     135        North Rockland        127
  6   North Rockland       (01)     144        Clarence              144
  7   Warwick Valley       (09)     145        Webster Thomas        162
  8   Clarence             (06)     147        Ithaca                167
  9   Ithaca               (04)     187        Warwick Valley        195 

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite in the Class A race ... Fayetteville-Manlius has an excellent one-two punch with Bryce Millar and Andrew Berge ... if Peter Ryan can join the front duo (as he did at sectionals) with the other scorers running normal races, Fayetteville-Manlius will be very difficult to beat.

Northport has posted some excellent performances this season including their sectional race ... Northport and Fayetteville-Manlius were ranked 8th and 6th in the nation by DyeStat, respectively, just prior to sectionals ... and both teams performed really well at sectionals ... Northport appeared very strong in the pre-season based on excellent track performances by multiple guys, and that potential is now showing itself in cross country ... This could be a very close team race.

Saratoga has a very good team, but they need all five scorers to perform well.

Individual Race ... This is an excellent individual race ... As noted in the list below, 10 guys with overall speed ratings between 195 and 186, and four guys at 190 or higher ... Mickey Burke (Rush-Henrietta) broke the McQuaid Invite course record earlier this season ... Mike Brannigan (Northport) won the championship race at the big New Jersey Shore Coaches Invite at Holmdel Park with the fastest time of the meet (15:45) and he recently broke the 16:00 minute barrier at Sunken Meadow (which some people think is worth more than the 193 speed rating I had for the modified Sunken Meadow course) ... The three FM guys (Bryce Millar, Andrew Berge and Peter Ryan) ran very well as a group at sectionals ... Josh Dyrland (Irondequoit) had a 190 speed rating at the Seneca Invite ... Should be very interesting to see how this race plays out in terms of tactics and results.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Mickey Burke          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         195
2   Mike Brannigan        11   11-A    Northport              192
3   Bryce Millar          11   03-A    FM                     192
4   Andrew Berge          12   03-A    FM                     190
5   Peter Ryan            10   03-A    FM                     187
6   Josh Dyrland          12   05-A    Irondequoit            186
7   Aidan Tooker          10   02-A    Saratoga               186
8   Daniel Huben          12   06-A    Clarence               186
9   Ben Petrella          10   03-A    Liverpool              186
10  Stephen Booker        12   02-A    Bethlehem              186
11  Nick Ciolkowski       11   05-A    McQuaid                185
12  Zakaria Adam          12   03-A    Proctor                184
13  Kyle Gronostaj        12   02-A    Columbia               184
14  Dan Muldoon           11   03-A    Liverpool              183
15  Tim McGowan           12   11-A    Northport              183
16  Tyler Ranke           12   05-A    Hilton                 182
17  Jake Johnson          10   02-A    Colonie                181
18  Dan Dracup            11   04-A    Ithaca                 180
19  Adam Hunt             11   03-A    FM                     179
20  Connor Buck           11   03-A    Liverpool              179
21  Benito Muniz          11   01-A    Carmel                 179
22  Jay Navin             12   02-A    Saratoga               178
23  Keith Johnson         12   05-A    Webster Thomas         178
24  Jack McGowan          12   11-A    Northport              177
25  Kyle Barber           11   03-A    FM                     177

 

 Boys Class B  -  Pittsford Mendon favored in a match-up of good teams
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pittsford Mendon     (05)     61         Pittsford Mendon       57
  2   Port Jervis          (09)     79         Corning                64
  3   Corning              (04)     80         Port Jervis            79
  4   Tappan Zee           (01)     99         Burnt Hills            91
  5   Burnt Hills          (02)    101         Shoreham Wading Riv    96
  6   Shoreham-Wading Riv  (11)    103         Tappan Zee            119
  7   Sweet Home           (06)    144         Sweet Home            164
  8   Whitesboro           (03)    210         Whitesboro            225
  9   Wantagh              (08)    216         Wantagh               246
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)    275         Franklin Academy      261
  11  Peru                 (07)    362         Peru                  362

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pittsford Mendon is the favorite in a race with some good competition ... Pittsford Mendon had the best Class B team score based on speed ratings at all eleven sectional races, and Pittsford Mendon raced on a sectional course softened up a bit by weather and prior races.

Port Jervis and Corning look like a toss-up to me, and both are within striking distance of Pittsford Mendon ... Tappan Zee, Burnt Hills and Shoreham Wading River look like a toss-up as well.

A question from a number viewers during the season and recently - "Why is Corning a Class B team??" ..... The reason is that the NYSPHSAA has instituted a new "Merger Policy" for Schools that combine for a sport ... Corning is comprised of Corning East (616 BED number) and Corning West (624 BED number), so their combined enrollment number is actually 616+624=1240 ... an enrollment of 1240 is Class A by the old standard ... The new Merger Policy starts with the enrollment of the larger school (624 is this case) and then adds a number between 10% and 50% of the enrollment of the smaller school ... somebody in the NYSPHSAA offices decided that 40% was appropriate for the Corning merger (40% of 616 = 246); therefore, the new Corning merger number equals 624+246=870 which is Class B in cross country.

Individual Race ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) and Brian Cook (Pearl River) are two of the top runners in the State (all classes) ... and Ryan Udvadia (Shoreham WR) has shown he is capable of a big performance ... other good runners make this a very good race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   TJ Hornberger         12   06-B    Lake Shore             190
2   Brian Cook            12   01-B    Pearl River            189
3   Ryan Udvadia          12   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R      186
4   Luke Gavigan          11   01-B    Tappan Zee             182
5   Sam Chauvin           12   04-B    Corning                181
6   Will Ronchetti        12   05-B    Brighton               179
7   Justin Van Epps       12   02-B    CBA-Albany             178
8   Jeremy Miekley        12   11-B    Miller Place           177
9   Nathan Doyle          12   05-B    Pittsford Mend         176
10  Liam Burke            11   01-B    Tappan Zee             176
11  John Rabideau         12   02-B    Burnt Hills            175
12  Kobie Lane            11   09-B    Port Jervis            175
13  Tom Moshier           12   04-B    Corning                174
14  John McCarthy         12   04-B    Corning                174
15  Matt Geraci           11   05-B    Honeoye FL             174
16  Cody Brizzolara       12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          174
17  Kenny Vasbinder       11   06-B    East Aurora            174
18  Jack Wesley           12   05-B    Pittsford Mend         174
19  Mike Watts            12   11-B    Islip                  173
20  Connor Green          12   05-B    Pittsford Mend         173

 

 Boys Class C  -  Holland Patent the favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent       (03)     95         Holland Patent         76
  2   Corinth              (02)    112         Susquehanna Valley     87
  3   Livonia              (05)    115         Pleasantville         111
  4   Pleasantville        (01)    119         Alden                 125
  5   Susquehanna Valley   (04)    122         Port Jefferson        125
  6   Alden                (06)    124         Onteora               139
  7   Onteora              (09)    153         Corinth               149
  8   Port Jefferson       (11)    160         Beekmantown           157
  9   Beekmantown          (07)    171         Livonia               200
  10  Gouverneur           (10)    206         Gouverneur            214
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)    233         Oyster Bay            220
  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Some uncertainty is involved in the Class C projection ... Holland Patent has improved very nicely in recent races and becomes the favorite based on performance at sectionals .... Not much separates Corinth, Livonia, Pleasantville, Susquehanna Valley and Alden, and they are not that far behind Holland Patent.

Individual Race ... John Flannery (Bronxville) is the top-rated Class C runner entering States, but 12 other runners are within 9 speed rating points ... Jeriqho Gadway (Plattsburgh), Owen Barber (Allegany-Limestone) and Tanner Flint (Corinth) are the next top-rated runners ... Looks very competitive.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   John Flannery         12   01-C    Bronxville             177
2   Jeriqho Gadway        11   07-C    Plattsburgh            175
3   Owen Barber           10   06-C    Allegany-Limestone     175
4   Tanner Flint          12   02-C    Corinth                173
5   Jake Acito            12   01-C    North Salem            171
6   James Burke           11   11-C    Port Jefferson         171
7   Dylan Servos          11   06-C    Alden                  170
8   Bryce Zayachek        11   03-C    Holland Patent         170
9   Barrett Celecki       12   03-C    Holland Patent         170
10  Richard Buchanan      11   04-C    Susquehanna Val        169
11  Jack Yaworsky         12   03-C    Clinton                169
12  Jordan Ahrens         12   02-C    Ft. Plain-Canajo       169
13  Kevin Langone         12   01-C    Pawling                168

 

 Boys Class D  -  Mount Academy the favorite to repeat
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Mount Academy        (09)     54         Mount Academy          53
  2   Greenwich            (02)     75         Greenwich              61
  3   Barker               (06)     93         Barker                122
  4   Sauquoit Valley      (03)    100         Sauquoit Valley       122
  5   East Rochester       (05)    105         East Rochester        130
  6   Watkins Glen         (04)    130         Watkins Glen          142
  7   Haldane              (01)    152         Haldane               147
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)    209         Ticonderoga           167
  9   Ticonderoga          (07)    217         Norwood-Norfolk       209
  10  Stony Brook          (11)    263         Stony Brook           255
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Mount Academy was the "new" school in 2012 and they won the State Class D race handily ... Mount Academy returns in 2013 with a very deep team and that depth helps to make them the favorite to win again.

Greenwich performed nicely at sectionals due, in part, to a return to form of top runner Jeremy Spiezo ... Barker finished 2nd at States last year and appear capable of doing the same again this year ... Barker, Sauquoit Valley and East Rochester seem evenly matched (so the order projected above could easily get switched).

Individual Race ... Corey Wefing (Maple Grove) has been a top-rated Class D runner throughout much of his high school career and enters this race as a slight favorite ... Jeremy Spiezo (Greenwich) was side-lined part of this season with an injury, but has been steadily returning to form since his return and is a serious contender to win this race ...A number of guys listed below seem capable of finishing in the top three.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Corey Wefing          12   06-D    Maple Grove            180
2   Jeremy Spiezio        11   02-D    Greenwich              176
3   Matt Gill             12   04-D    Watkins Glen           174
4   Daryn Hutchings       11   02-D    Argyle                 172
5   Jordan Healy          12   02-D    Maple Hill             171
6   Everett Geiger        11   05-D    Caledonia Mumford      170
7   Pat Murphy            11   02-D    Duanesburg             170
8   Nicholas Spina        12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        169
9   Keith Baird           11   09-D    Mount Academy          167
10  Baxter Wareham        10   09-D    Mount Academy          166
11  Jacob Hanss           12   05-D    East Rochester         166
12  Mitch Cicero          11   05-D    Perry                  164
13  Martin Kurtz          10   09-D    Mount Academy          164
14  Jason Jenks           12   04-D    Groton                 163
15  Dawson Bathgate       10   05-D    East Rochester         163

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  FM odds-on favorite with Saratoga second again
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)     38         Fayetteville-Manlius   31
  2   Saratoga             (02)     82         Saratoga Springs       67
  3   Webster Thomas       (05)    101         Suffern               101
  4   Suffern              (01)    114         Elmira                106
  5   Elmira District      (04)    119         Webster Thomas        112
  6   Clarence             (05)    150         Northport             158
  7   Northport            (11)    151         Clarence              162
  8   Syosset              (08)    172         Syosset               187
  9   Valley Central       (09)    190         Valley Central        210
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is one of the top team in the nation (again) and the odds-on favorite to win this race ... Saratoga has a young team with three 8th-graders finishing in the top four positions at sectionals ... Saratoga has had both good and "off" team performances this season, but they capable of performing very well.

Webster Thomas is actually 2nd-best based on speed-rated scoring at sectionals ... Not much separates Webster Thomas, Suffern and Elmira and all seem capable of finishing at least 3rd.

Individual Race ... Looks very competitive and is probably the best girl's race of the day ... I could make a case for 8 or 9 girls winning this race ... Katie Lembo (Penfield) is consistent at a very high level and it will likely require an excellent performance by another runner to beat her ... Annika Avery (FM) popped another big performance at sectionals ... Megan Reilly (Warwick) won the Class A race last year with her best performance of the season ... Bella Burda (Arlington) was 2nd last year ... Kennedy Jensen (Canandaigua) had the best girl's performance at the Queensbury pre-State Invitational, and she did it running most of the race with one shoe ... Abbey Wheeler (Elmira) beat many of the top runners in this race at McQuaid where she popped the best individual speed rating by a NY girl to date (147) ... Marissa Saenger (Clarence) is a Footlocker Finalist returning from a season-ending injury during outdoor track ... Anna Flynn (Ursuline) has been improving steadily and impressively ... Ten of the top 15 girls listed below qualified for either Footlocker or NXN Nationals last year, and now add several more who are capable of doing the same this year ... A truly excellent Class A race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Katie Lembo           12   05-A    Penfield               145
2   Annika Avery          11   03-A    FM                     143
3   Kennedy Jensen        12   05-A    Canandaigua            140
4   Megan Reilly          10   09-A    Warwick                139
5   Alex Cooper           11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         138
6   Abbey Wheeler         10   04-A    Elmira District        138
7   Bella Burda           11   01-A    Arlington              137
8   Anna Flynn            10   01-A    Ursuline               136
9   Marissa Saenger       12   06-A    Clarence               136
10  Alana Pearl           12   03-A    FM                     135
11  Jenna Farrell         10   03-A    FM                     135
12  Siobhan Quinn         11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         134
13  Autumn Albrecht       11   05-A    Brockport              132
14  Kate Zendell          11   01-A    Suffern                132
15  Gianna Frontera       12   09-A    Newburgh               131
16  Laura Leff            12   03-A    West Genesee           131
17  Amanda Vestri         9    05-A    Webster Thomas         129
18  Vicky Martinez        10   01-A    Fox Lane               129
19  Grace Moore           10   08-A    Calhoun                129
20  Maryanna Lansing      10   02-A    Shaker                 128
21  Jessica Howe          11   03-A    FM                     126
22  Rachel Ludwikowski    9    01-A    Suffern                126
23  Kalleigh Forrester    12   09-A    Newburgh               126
24  Samantha Vetter       8    02-A    Saratoga               125
25  Lauren Chapey         10   01-A    Mamaroneck             123
26  Reilly Siebert        8    08-A    Syosset                123
27  Brigid Brennan        12   11-A    Northport              123
28  Lauren Gruber         10   08-A    Syosset                122

 

 Girls Class B  -  East Aurora & Pearl River
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)     78         Queensbury             86
  2   Pearl River          (01)     82         Pearl River            92
  3   Queensbury           (02)     92         East Aurora            92
  4   Corning              (04)    111         Corning               116
  5   Cornwall             (09)    130         Miller Place          117
  6   Pittsford Mendon     (05)    131         Cornwall              132
  7   Miller Place         (11)    132         Pittsford Mendon      134
  8   North Shore          (08)    133         North Shore           160
  9   Westhill-Ludden      (03)    201         Westhill-Ludden       194
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)    226         Franklin Academy      227
  11  Peru                 (07)    341         Peru                  347
		

Pre-Race Analysis ...  East Aurora and Pearl River are effectively even-up on most factors ... East Aurora finished 2nd at States last year and then ran well enough at the NXN-New York regional to qualify as an "at-large" team for Nationals where they finished 4th ... East Aurora usually performs well at this point in the season, so they get a slight advantage ... Pearl River is definitely capable of performing at a winning level.

Queensbury is an interesting team in this race because they nearly equal in scoring potential to the top two (winning a noticeable percentage a computer simulated races) ... But importantly, Queensbury is racing at their home course ... They are capable of winning.

Corning could finish in the top three with a good performance .... Cornwall, Pittsford Mendon, Miller Place and North Shore are even-up at the 5th to 8th positions, and it's a guess where they will actually finish.

Individual Race ... Jessica Lawson (Corning) is the favorite to win ... Marta McLaughlin (East Aurora) and Sophia Tasselmyer (Starpoint) had a very competitive race against each other at the Section 6 sectional (Tasselmyer winning by 0.3 seconds) ... Erin Jaskot (Tappan Zee) has been improving nicely and Kelly Hayes (Pearl River) has had some very good performances.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Jessica Lawson        9    04-B    Corning                142
2   Marta McLaughlin      12   06-B    East Aurora            134
3   Sophia Tasselmyer     10   06-B    Starpoint              134
4   Erin Jaskot           12   01-B    Tappan Zee             134
5   Kelly Hayes           12   01-B    Pearl River            133
6   Stephanie Gerland     10   08-B    Garden City            132
7   Ally Ortega           11   06-B    Sweet Home             131
8   Kaylee Scott          11   02-B    Holy Names             130
9   Tiana Guevara         12   11-B    Miller Place           130
10  Beatrice Boylan       11   09-B    Cornwall               127
11  Megan Kellogg         12   02-B    Queensbury             125
12  Fiona Danieu          10   06-B    East Aurora            125
13  Rachel Fairbanks      11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      125 (out injured)
14  Aileen Doyle          11   06-B    Sweet Home             125
15  Isabelle Page         11   01-B    John Jay CR            124
16  Carolyn Hopkins       12   06-B    Williamsville S        123
17  Laura Nolan           10   11-B    Miller Place           122
18  Lydia Williams        8    02-B    Holy Names             122
19  Emily Guinther        11   02-B    Queensbury             122
20  Mary Visca            11   05-B    Pittsford Suth         121
21  Mary Barger           11   05-B    Pittsford Mend         121
22  Mary Kate O'Meara     12   01-B    Nanuet                 120
23  Daniela LoCastro      10   08-B    Cold Spring Har        120
24  Brittany Fuller       11   09-B    Port Jervis            120

 

 Girls Class C  -  Bronxville the odds-on favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)     38         Bronxville             45
  2   Canton               (10)     89         Canton                 71
  2   Skaneateles          (03)     92         Skaneateles           107
  4   Wayland Cohocton     (05)    105         Akron                 130
  5   Akron                (06)    132         Wayland-Cohocton      136
  6   Friends Academy      (08)    133         Broadalbin-Perth      146
  7   Broadalbin-Perth     (02)    134         Friends Academy       148
  8   Tri-Valley           (09)    220         Tri-Valley            218
  9   Trumansburg          (04)    221         Trumansburg           224
  10  Mattituck            (11)    240         Mattituck             260
  11  Saranac              (07)    250         Saranac               263
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the many-time defending Class C champion and a very solid favorite to win again.

Little seems to separate Canton, Skaneateles and Wayland Cohocton ... Canton raced well at States last year in the Class B race, and could have an improved seasonal performance this year.

Individual Race ... Another competitive race ... Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) has the slight advantage based on overall ratings; she won handily over Rachel Garn (Marcellus) at the Section 3 sectional race ... Rachel Garn is very consistent and capable of a winning performance ... Meghan Curtin (Wayland Cohocton) has shown improved performance in recent races ... Both Laura Pierce (Canton) and Kaitlin Ryan (Bronxville) are capable of winning (and maybe others) ... A very competitive race is possible.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Kaitlyn Neal          10   03-C    Skaneateles            125
2   Meghan Curtin         10   05-C    Wayland Cohocton       124
3   Rachel Garn           12   03-C    Marcellus              123
4   Kaitlin Ryan          9    01-C    Bronxville             121
5   Laura Pierce          12   10-C    Canton                 121
6   Julia Flower          10   02-C    Schalmont              121
7   Megan Ann Pierce      12   03-C    CBA                    117
8   Courtney Campbell     12   01-C    Bronxville             116
9   Ashley Watson         9    02-C    Schuylerville          116
10  Kelly Bochnewetch     12   06-C    Newfane                115
11  Isabella Pascucci     11   08-C    Friends Acad           115
12  Emilie Hoffer         12   01-C    Bronxville             113
13  Mika Andrews          9    01-C    Dobbs Ferry            113
14  Julia Armstrong       12   09-C    Onteora                112
15  Mariah Smith          10   05-C    Hornell                111
16  Clarissa Hensler      9    05-C    Livonia                111
17  Abby Gugel            10   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        111

 

 Girls Class D  -  Maple Grove & Tully - Too Close to Call
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)     59         Tully                  45
  2   Tully                (03)     59         Maple Grove            76
  3   Seton Catholic       (07)     90         Seton Catholic         78
  4   Greenwich            (02)     93         Greenwich              87
  5   Keshequa             (05)     94         Keshequa              140
  6   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)    119         Norwood-Norfolk       147
  7   Watkins Glen         (04)    160         Watkins Glen          157
  8   Haldane              (01)    194         Stony Brook           164
  9   Stony Brook          (11)    207         Haldane               192
  10  S.S. Seward          (09)    234         S.S. Seward           264

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Maple Grove is not only the defending Class D champion, Maple Grove has won the Class D title at the last three State Meets ... Tully drops down from Class C to Class D, and at the State Meet last year, Tully finished 2nd to Bronxville in the Class C race.

All thing considered, Maple Grove and Tully have roughly equal probabilities of winning based on form entering the State Meet ... placement of finishers has importance at all five scoring positions, especially at positions 3 to 5 ... and where runners from other teams insert themselves between the Maple Grove and Tully scorers has added significance in this race .... Based on speed ratings from the sectional races, Maple Grove has the advantage, but the Tully girls had some sickness at sectionals which resulted in off-performances ... I gave Maple Grove the top spot above because they are the three-time defending champions.

Actually, Seton Catholic, Greenwich and Keshequa are not that far behind and are within striking distance of winning because none of these teams have true depth ... One or two off-performances by Maple Grove or Tully leaves an opening for the other teams if they race well ... Not much separates Seton Catholic, Greenwich and Keshequa with Keshequa getting an advantage based solely on sectional results.

Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) has been racing well and enters the Class D race as the individual favorite ... Sage Hurta won the Class D race at States in 2010 ... Hope Pietrocarlo (Maple Grove) has come on strong in last couple of races (just like last year) and is a serious challenger for the individual win ... Several other girls listed below are capable of popping a big performance.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Sage Hurta            10   03-D    Hamilton               129
2   Hope Pietrocarlo      10   06-D    Maple Grove            123
3   Kaycie Saucier        10   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        117
4   Margaret Champagne    10   07-D    Seton Catholic         113
5   Ashleigh Crawford     10   03-D    Tully                  112
6   Sarah Lapham          12   02-D    Greenwich              112
7   Natalie Mogavero      8    03-D    Weedsport              112
8   Kristin Ratliff       10   03-D    Cooperstown            108
9   Tori Spiezio          10   02-D    Greenwich              108
10  Ellen Jaworski        10   03-D    Tully                  108
11  Caroline Benson       12   06-D    Maple Grove            103
12  Samantha Fanion       9    03-D    Cooperstown            103
13  Makenna Cooley        12   03-D    Remsen                 102
14  Holly Eliason         12   06-D    Sherman                102
15  Taylor Norris         12   06-D    Maple Grove            102
16  Ashley Leta           12   07-D    Seton Catholic         101
17  Lindsay Piriano       12   05-D    Keshequa               100