October 31, 2012 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2012 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 31, 2012 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2012
... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 4, 2012
| Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 30 Fayetteville-Manlius 36
2 Liverpool 69 Baldwinsville 68
3 Baldwinsville 69 Liverpool 77
4 West Genesee 119 West Genesee 113
5 Cicero-North Syracuse 174 Cicero-North Syracuse 176
6 Auburn 178 Central Square 184
7 Central Square 196 Rome Free Academy 197
8 Rome Free 200 Auburn 200
9 Proctor 216 Syracuse East 236
10 Syracuse East 243 Proctor 242
11 Syracuse West 308 Syracuse West 300
12 Oswego 384
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is currently the top-ranked team in NY State (all classes) and a solid favorite to win the Class A race. Liverpool and Baldwinsville appear very evenly matched for the runner-up spot, and both seem like good candidates for "At-Large" selection berths to the NY Federation Meet with good performances at sectionals ... Liverpool edged Baldwinsville by a mere two points at the CNYCL National League meet ... earlier in the season, Baldwinsville beat Liverpool at McQuaid, and both teams won divisions at the Manhattan Invitational (with Baldwinsville ahead in the merge) ... I put Liverpool 2nd only because of the recent victory which was run at the Baldwinsville course. Individual Race ...
Nick Ryan (FM) is the top-rated runner in Section 3 and
NY State, and the odds-on favorite to win ... Byrce Millar
(FM) is ranked #2 in Section 3, but Alec Peinkofer
(Baldwinsville) is a solid contender to finish second ... Justin Middleton
(Auburn) and Dan Muldoon (Liverpool) are solid contenders
to grab individual qualifying spots to States. |
| Boys Class B - Westhill-Ludden the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill-Ludden 72 Westhill-Ludden 76
2 Jamesville Dewitt 102 Jamesville-Dewitt 79
3 New Hartford 120 New Hartford 122
4 Fulton 138 Fulton 123
5 Mexico 151 Mexico 153
6 Marcellus 155 South Jefferson 157
7 South Jefferson 178 Whitesboro 186
8 Whitesboro 182 Marcellus 195
9 East Syracuse-Minoa 211 East Syracuse-Minoa 200
10 Chittenango 230 Chittenango 259
11 Oneida 322 Cortland 311
12 Cortland 343 Homer 337
13 Carthage 366 Oneida 394
14 Homer 374 Phoenix 408
15 Phoenix 437 Watertown 429
16 Watertown 451 Camden 429
17 Indian River 469 Indian River 489
18 Camden 473
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the OHSL Liberty Meet handily ... Jamesville-Dewitt won the OHSL Freedom Meet, and New Hartford won the TVL League Meet ... The predicted score is a reflection of Westhill-Ludden's good performance at the OHSL Liberty Meet held at Jamesville Beach ... Jamesville-Dewitt is capable of making this an interesting race at a the VVS course. Individual Race ... Ryan Manahan (Marcellus) is the odds-on favorite to win the race ... James Gowans (Mexico) has run very decently in winning his last three major races (OHSL Freedom, Chittenango Invite and Tully Invite).
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| Boys Class C - Hannibal the favorite, but Adirondack is close! |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Hannibal 95 Hannibal 90
2 Adirondack 103 Holland Patent 107
3 Holland Patent 122 Tully 116
4 Solvay 123 Adirondack 119
5 Tully 129 Solvay 163
6 CBA 166 Jordan-Elbridge 168
7 Jordan-Elbridge 172 CBA 189
8 Ilion 208 Ilion 209
9 Skaneateles 240 Cazenovia 273
10 Clinton 286 Clinton 277
11 VVS 305 Skaneateles 280
12 Cazenovia 340 VVS 294
13 Herkimer 366 Port Byron 314
14 Little Falls 392 Canastota 403
15 APW 395 Little Falls 413
16 Mt. Markham 421 Mt. Markham 428
17 Canastota 436 APW 437
18 Sherburne-Earlville 462 Herkimer 440
Sherburne-Earlville 458
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Pre-Race Analysis ... The Class C race has more uncertainty at the top end than the other races ... Overall, Hannibal gets the favorite position due to better top-to-bottom strength and their top runner (Ryan Perry) is the favorite to win the race ... Adirondack has been improving throughout the season; Adirondack won the CSC League Meet and a division of their invitational meet last weekend, and looms as a solid contender to win. Holland Patent, Solvay and Tully seem very close in scoring potential ... season-best team performances by any of these teams make them contenders to win. Individual Race ... Ryan Perry (Hannibal) is the favorite to win with Matt Cregan (Solvay) and Jack Gugel (Jordan-Elbridge) within striking distance.
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| Boys Class D - Beaver River favored again |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 51 Beaver River 59
2 Sauquoit Valley 93 Sauquoit Valley 88
3 Onondaga 126 Onondaga 99
4 Weedsport 127 Weedsport 135
5 Utica Notre Dame 167 Utica Notre Dame 136
6 South Lewis 210 South Lewis 183
7 Port Byron 212 New York Mills 203
8 New York Mills 222 Cooperstown 215
9 Cooperstown 235 Pulaski 223
10 LaFayette 242 LaFayette 237
11 Pulaski 263 Fabius-Pompey 291
12 Oriskany 296 Oriskany 306
13 Poland 312 Cato-Meridian 326
14 Fabius-Pompey 351 Sandy Creek 381
15 Cato-Meridian 357 Poland 395
16 Sandy Creek 395 Westmoreland 444
17 Westmoreland 504
18 MPH 540
19 SAS 578
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River enters the Class "D" race as the favorite once again ... And just like the last two years, Beaver River is the Frontier League champion and they just won their division (and the merge) at the Adirondack Invitational. Sauquoit Valley drops to Class D this season and is projected to finish a solid second ... Onondaga and Weedsport appear evenly-matched for the 3rd and 4th positions. Individual Race ... Alex Hall (Beaver River) is the slight favorite over Nicholas Spina (Sauquoit Valley) and Seth Baker (Weedsport), but all three are capable of winning.
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| Girls Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 15 Fayetteville-Manlius 15
2 Liverpool 71 Liverpool 76
3 Cicero-North Syracuse 80 Baldwinsville 86
4 Baldwinsville 90 Cicero-North Syracuse 103
5 West Genesee 125 West Genesee 114
6 Rome Free 193 Central Square 190
7 Central Square 215 Auburn 211
8 Auburn 221 Rome Free Academy 245
9 Syracuse West 286 Syracuse West 288
10 Oswego 290 Oswego 290
11 Proctor 335 Proctor 328
12 Syracuse East 355 Syracuse East 341
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius scored a perfect 15 in three of the last five years at sectionals ... However, in the last two years, Laura Leff (West Genesee) disrupted the perfect score by finishing in the top five (not sure if that will happen again this year, but maybe). Fayetteville-Manlius ran only one invitational race in 2012 (the Eastern States Championship at Manhattan) and they were defeated by Tatnall Delaware ... Jillian Fanning (FM) did not compete at Manhattan ... FM's performance at the CNYCL American Meet once again stamped them as the top team in the nation. Liverpool, CNS and Baldwinsville have shown that Section 3 has some other good Class A teams. Individual Race ... Alana Pearl (FM) is the current top-rated runner in Section 3 ... Jillian Fanning has been hampered by a leg injury and unable to show her excellent abilities from 2011 ... Laura Leff (West Genesee), third at Footlocker Nationals last year, has been hampered by injuries since a stress-fracture in her foot ended her indoor and outdoor track seasons; I believe she has received clearance to compete at sectionals, but I'm not sure.
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| Girls Class B - Westhill-Ludden favored, but it could be interesting |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill-Ludden 65 Westhill-Ludden 62
2 Jamesville Dewitt 78 East Syracuse-Minoa 74
3 East Syracuse-Minoa 78 Jamesville-Dewitt 87
4 South Jefferson 120 South Jefferson 146
5 New Hartford 142 New Hartford 149
6 Marcellus 161 Marcellus 180
7 Chittenango 182 Homer 190
8 Homer 196 Chittenango 213
9 Whitesboro 237 Whitesboro 214
10 Carthage 348 Fulton 289
11 Fulton 360 Oneida 312
12 Oneida 369 Cortland 332
13 Cortland 370 Indian River 354
14 Indian River 381 Phoenix 358
15 Mexico 393
16 Phoenix 394
17 Watertown 458
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the OHSL Liberty Meet with a good team performance over the Jamesville Beach course ... Westhill-Ludden raced well at out-of-section meets that included the New Jersey Shore Coaches Invite and Manhattan Invite ... In the Manhattan Invitational merged results, Westhill-Ludden finished ahead of East Syracuse-Minoa and Jamesville-Dewitt. Jamesville-Dewitt beat East Syracuse-Minoa by one point at the OHSL Freedom Meet ... overall, these two teams are even-up ... But more importantly, both seem to be improving and are not that far behind Westhill-Ludden ... A potentially soggy-tiring course at VVS opens this race up to some interesting possibilities. Individual Race ... Rachel Garn (Marcellus) and Rachel Fairbanks (JD) are co-favorites based on recent performance ... Gabby Pallotta (ESM) and Annibel Coolican (Westhill-Ludden) are the next top-rated Class B runners.
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| Girls Class C - Skaneateles and Tully in a close contest |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Skaneateles 61 Tully 47
2 Tully 65 Skaneateles 63
3 Cazenovia 81 Cazenovia 102
4 Adirondack 129 Adirondack 128
5 Holland Patent 165 Holland Patent 136
6 CBA 195 Ilion 182
7 Ilion 199 Hannibal 182
8 Hannibal 203 Canastota 226
9 Jordan-Elbridge 237 Jordan-Elbridge 238
10 Canastota 270 Port Byron 282
11 Clinton 295 Clinton 297
12 APW 328 APW 303
13 Mt. Markham 355 Herkimer 344
14 Herkimer 385
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Pre-Race Analysis ... Skaneateles becomes the slight favorite following a good team performance at the OHSL Liberty Meet where they finished a good second to Westhill-Ludden (who is favored in the Class B race) ... Tully handily won the OHSL Patriot Meet by taking four of the top five places. Overall, the race is very close between Skaneateles and Tully with both teams getting an advantage under certain scenarios ... This is one race where runners from other teams might decide the winning team based on how they displace or don't displace the Skaneateles and Tully scorers. Lurking close behind is Cazenovia ... the VVS course just might be an advantage for Cazenovia because neither Skaneateles nor Tully typically have top team performances from top-to-bottom at VVS. Individual Race ... Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) has established herself as the top Class C runner entering sectionals and is the favorite ... Megan Ann Pierce (CBA) has not raced since the Tully Invitational, so her status for sectionals is unclear, but she has some very nice performances this season ... Abby Gugel (JE) handily won her race at the VVS Invitational and finished second to Kaitlyn Neal at the OHSL Liberty Meet ... Meghann Tanner (Adirondack), Ashleigh Crawford (Tully), Jeanette Cudney (Caz) and Darien Rhone (Adirondack) are next top-rated runners in Class C ... Madeline Adams (Skan) has been hampered by an injury, but raced well at the OHSL Liberty Meet.
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| Girls Class D - South Lewis favored with Sauquoit Valley close |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 South Lewis 69 South Lewis 60
2 Sauquoit Valley 75 Sauquoit Valley 88
3 Remsen 115 Remsen 118
4 Cooperstown 146 Cooperstown 135
5 Beaver River 149 Beaver River 136
6 Utica Notre Dame 185 Fabius-Pompey 185
7 Port Byron 206 Utica Notre Dame 195
8 Fabius-Pompey 215 Bishop Grimes 222
9 Pulaski 217 Pulaski 223
10 Faith Heritage 240 Faith Heritage 238
11 LaFayette 240 LaFayette 239
12 Sandy Creek 284 Poland 298
13 Poland 285 Sandy Creek 308
14 Weedsport 323 Weedsport 311
15 Waterville 436 New York Mills 377
16 New York Mills 438 Oriskany 447
17 Old Forge 460
18 Oriskany 507
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Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis beat Sauquoit Valley by 7 points at last week's Adirondack Invitational ... South Lewis won the Frontier League Meet while Sauquoit Valley won the CSC League Meet ... Sauquoit Valley has more depth than South Lewis through seven runners, and that may come into play on the VVS course. Individual Race ... Erin McConnell (Fabius-Pompey) has been running extremely well all season and is the odds-on favorite to win the individual title ... Erin McConnell is the top-rated Class D runner in the State ... Victoria Campanian (South Lewis) is the Frontier League champion and is currently ranked 4th in the State Class D rankings.
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