| Federation Championship 2012 - Projections |
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the seven runners from each team in the entry lists ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 13, 2012 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... ACTUAL SCORES Added Nov 18, 2012 |
... ACTUAL SCORES Added Nov 18, 2012
[ Girls Projection ]
| BOYS Federation Champ 2012 ... Saratoga the favorite with Northport close |
Predicted Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Saratoga 120 (02-A ) Saratoga 116
2 Northport 130 (11-A ) Arlington 166
3 St. Anthony's 160 (CHSAA) St. Anthony's 182
4 Warwick Valley 215 (09-A ) Warwick Valley 192
5 Arlington 235 (01-A ) Northport 201
6 Liverpool 270 (03-A ) Liverpool 216
7 Baldwinsville 270 (03-A ) Chaminade 217
8 Collegiate 280 (AIS ) Collegiate 252
9 Chaminade 280 (CHSAA) Franklin Academy 285
10 East Aurora 290 (06-B ) Pittsford-Mendon 287
11 Corning 320 (04-A ) East Aurora 327
12 Pittsford Mendon 325 (05-B ) Pearl River 352
13 Calhoun 325 (08-A ) Pawling 361
14 Monsignor Farrell 350 (CHSAA) Baldwinsville 375
15 Franklin Academy 350 (10-B ) Fordham Prep 406
16 Pearl River 380 (01-B ) Xavier 420
17 Xavier 420 (CHSAA) Corning 432
18 Tappan Zee 425 (01-B ) Calhoun 450
19 Burnt Hills 430 (02-B ) Monsignor Farrell 488
20 Shenendehowa 440 (02-A ) Burnt Hills 497
21 Pawling 465 (01-C ) Shenendehowa 501
22 Stuyvesant 480 (PSAL ) Curtis 517
23 Fordham Prep 490 (CHSAA) Stuyvesant 524
24 Curtis 540 (PSAL ) Tappan Zee 549
25 McKee/Staten 580 (PSAL ) McKee/S.I. Tech 581
26 Fiorello Laguard 620 (PSAL ) Laguardia 586
27 St. Joe's-Buffalo 650 (CHSAA) St. Joe's - Buffalo 587
St. John The Baptist 658
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Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations. Saratoga becomes the favorite after an excellent team performance in winning the NY State Class A race over FM by one point ... Bowdoin Park differs from Saratoga Park and Elma Meadows, so it will be interesting to see how Saratoga compares to Northport in this race ... Feds allows both teams to have a race over the course before next week's NXN regional. St. Anthony's has been very consistent at a high level all season and is close to the top two ... any faltering at the scoring positions by Saratoga or Northport gives St. Anthony's a legitimate chance of winning. Individual Race ... A number of top individual NY runners are not competing at Feds such as Nick Ryan (FM), Ryan Manahan (Marcellus), Eric Holt (Carmel), TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore), Mickey Burke (Rush-Hen), Bryce Millar (FM) and Jeffery Antolos (Notre Dame-Batavia). Sibby Hanson (Arlington) is very familiar with the course and runs well at Bowdoin, so he should be considered the favorite ... Mike Branigan (Northport), Ryan Udvadia (Shoreham WR), Gabe Rodriquez (Geneseo) and several others are capable of making this a very competitive race at the front. The list below shows the top-rated runners competing at Feds (they are listed in the entries): |
Sibby Hanson 12 01-A Arlington 189 186 191 189 186 190 186 182 Mike Branigan 10 11-A Northport 185 180 189 181 182 179 Ryan Udvadia 11 11-B Shoreham-Wading R 184 178 189 177 175 185 179 172 Gabe Rodriguez 12 05-D Geneseo 184 181 170 190 182 176 Zachary Cammer 12 11-A Walt Whitman 184 182 185 183 181 181 Alec Peinkofer 12 03-A Baldwinsville 183 184 177 177 182 188 177 177 Brian Cook 11 01-B Pearl River 183 183 181 179 184 182 179 Jack Curran 12 08-A Calhoun 182 175 184 178 183 180 Dan Galford 12 CHS Monsignor Farrell 182 182 178 180 187 180 177 171 Jack Stevenson 12 PSA Stuyvesant 181 182 177 182 177 178 Stephen Bourguet 12 08-B Manhasset 181 179 174 182 184 173 Alfredo Mazzuca 12 09-B New Paltz 180 181 181 176 178 176 174 168 Philo Germano 12 02-A Albany 180 180 182 181 177 183 176 174 175 174 170 157 Tim McGowan 11 11-A Northport 180 173 184 172 173 178 James Dickinson 12 11-A Northport 180 179 183 168 159 168 Jay Navin 11 02-A Saratoga 180 182 181 167 165 178 165 175 Jordan Pantalone 12 02-B Bishop Gibbons 179 179 180 177 177 180 179 Thomas Slattery 11 CHS Chaminade 179 179 176 179 182 177 177 173 Dan Dracup 10 04-A Ithaca 178 179 180 179 173 169 176 172 168 Tom Meehan 11 11-B EastportSManor 178 175 177 180 180 177 168 Jack Wesley 11 05-B Pittsford Mend 178 179 176 177 178 170 Patrick Ginty 12 CHS St. Anthonys 178 176 179 177 174 175 176 177 Aidan Tooker 9 02-A Saratoga 178 181 177 174 168 166 170 164 Ben Petrella 9 03-A Liverpool 178 180 176 176 167 164 163 Andrew Tario 12 02-B Averill Park 178 178 177 181 173 163 175 173 166 173 173 172 Stephen Shine 12 01-C Briarcliff 177 179 180 173 177 166 163 158 162 James Gowans 12 03-B Mexico 177 178 176 174 177 173 168 Grant Parrelli 12 09-A Warwick 177 173 172 182 172 Ryan Cooney 12 08-A Massapequa 177 166 175 181 181 178 175 170 Conor Gordon 12 10-B Franklin Acad 177 160 179 175 178 181 174 Sean Phillips 12 06-B East Aurora 177 168 177 172 180 177 182 174 179 |
| GIRLS Federation Champ 2012 ... Holy Names & Saratoga - Too Close to Call |
Prediction Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Holy Names 85 (02-B ) Saratoga 70
2 Saratoga 86 (02-A ) Holy Names 101
3 Burnt Hills 170 (02-B ) Burnt Hills 182
4 Rush-Henrietta 210 (05-A ) North Shore 214
5 Nanuet 245 (01-B ) Suffern 234
6 Shenendehowa 250 (02-A ) Rush-Henrietta 249
7 Warwick Valley 265 (09-A ) Warwick Valley 272
8 Penfield 280 (05-A ) Shenendehowa 273
9 Suffern 280 (01-A ) Penfield 278
10 Garden City 285 (08-B ) Garden City 280
11 Canton 287 (10-B ) Nanuet 286
12 Cornwall 300 (09-B ) Bronxville 332
13 Bronxville 305 (01-C ) Pearl River 347
14 Pearl River 320 (01-B ) St. Anthony's 365
15 North Shore 325 (08-B ) Canton 368
16 Shaker 360 (02-A ) Cornwall 382
17 St. Anthony's 385 (CHSAA) Shaker 391
18 Nightingale-Bamford 510 (AIS ) Nightingale 512
19 Kellenberg 531 (CHSAA) Mt St Mary-Buffalo 520
20 St. John Villa 550 (CHSAA) Cardozo 523
21 Benjamin N Cardozo 565 (PSAL ) Kellenberg 546
22 Port Richmond 605 (PSAL ) Port Richmond 549
23 Mt St Mary-Buffalo 617 (CHSAA) McKee-Staten 559
24 Sacred Heart 634 (CHSAA) Sacred Heart 608
25 Curtis 656 (PSAL ) Curtis 643
26 McKee-Staten 682 (PSAL ) St. John The Baptist 663
27 St. John Baptist 699 (CHSAA) St. John Villa 720
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Pre-Race Analysis ... As has been the case in recent years, the Fed race is missing Fayetteville-Manlius ... The East Aurora girls (4th in the State Meet merge) are also skipping Feds. Holy Names and Saratoga were separated by a single point in the State Meet merge (Holy Names 106, Saratoga 107) ... the projected Fed race simulations have this race equally tight ... It is too close to call within any margin-of-error ... At this point entering Feds, I have both Holy Names and Saratoga as top five teams in the nation with FM on top. Individual Race ... Looks like a re-match of the State Class A race last weekend between Megan Reilly (Warwick), Bella Burda (Arlington), Katie Lembo (Penfield) and Taylor Driscoll (Saratoga) ... I was really impressed by the performances of Megan Reilly and Bella Burda at Elma Meadows. Laura Leff (West Genesee) was 3rd at Footlocker Nationals last year and has been improving nicely with each race since returning to competition from her injury ... it will be interesting to see how she progresses. The list below shows the top-rated runners competing at Feds (they are listed in the entries): |
Megan Reilly 9 09-A Warwick 149 152 147 143 146 135 136 Isabella Burda 10 01-A Arlington 148 151 144 147 147 145 143 142 135 Katie Lembo 11 05-A Penfield 146 146 143 147 146 149 145 144 136 129 Taylor Driscoll 12 02-A Saratoga 145 148 139 139 143 147 140 136 Megan Young 12 01-B Nanuet 135 136 136 139 110 127 123 118 119 Catherine Maloy 12 02-B Holy Names 135 133 135 137 131 127 127 Valarie Palermo 12 05-A Webster Schroeder 135 138 130 133 131 127 129 120 116 Maryanna Lansing 9 02-A Shaker 134 137 133 133 134 123 133 119 115 119 118 Laura Leff 11 03-A West Genesee 134 136 129 124 Siobhan Quinn 10 05-A Rush-Henrietta 134 136 135 111 133 131 124 107 Tiana Guevara 11 11-B Miller Place 134 133 134 131 134 129 125 Delphi Cleaveland 12 01-A Arlington 133 135 124 131 134 134 134 128 Keelin Hollowood 12 02-A Saratoga 133 130 134 135 132 123 122 128 Sophia Tasselmyer 9 06-B Starpoint 133 132 130 137 123 135 121 114 112 Kalleigh Forrester 11 09-A Newburgh 133 123 136 136 132 127 124 129 130 Stephanie Gerland 9 08-B Garden City 132 132 130 134 121 128 Kaylee Scott 10 02-B Holy Names 132 133 131 129 130 122 125 Erin Jaskot 11 01-B Tappan Zee 129 130 128 130 123 131 119 120 115 Olivia Morrow 9 02-A Saratoga 129 131 120 132 124 126 122 121 Kate Zendell 10 01-A Suffern 129 126 133 130 125 117 117 123 119 Karli O'Neill 12 05-A Churchville 128 127 130 125 128 122 126 Carolyn Hopkins 11 06-B Williamsville S 128 128 130 128 128 110 131 117 111 101 Beatrice Boylan 10 09-B Cornwall 128 132 126 123 124 121 110 106 98 Jenny Delsignore 12 06-B Sweet Home 128 130 129 126 116 119 118 100 Elizabeth Caldwell 12 08-B North Shore 128 125 127 123 133 Sabrina Southerland 12 PSA Benjamin Cardozo 128 127 129 127 110 122 Julia Zachgo 8 02-A Shenendehowa 127 128 127 112 Aileen Doyle 10 06-B Sweet Home 127 123 127 127 127 119 131 110 Caroline Hampton 12 02-A Shenendehowa 127 129 128 126 109 116 112 103 Lydia Williams 7 02-B Holy Names 127 129 129 119 124 121 124 118 Bellame Bower 9 02-A Colonie 127 126 129 130 123 117 120 122 114 117 Felicia Sciortino 12 02-A Niskayuna 127 128 129 119 121 119 119 123 Kelly Hayes 11 01-B Pearl River 127 87 130 131 125 137 133 126 124 Talia Guevara 11 11-B Miller Place 127 127 127 125 124 124 118 |