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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2012

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 24, 2012

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 21, 2012 ...... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012

.... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries (several scoring team runners from previous races were not listed in the entries, so I excluded them)

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

      NY GIRLS TEAMS Entered                                  NY BOYS TEAMS Entered

   SCHOOL                  CLUB NAME                             SCHOOL                     CLUB NAME
   Holy Names           -  AHN-XC Club  NY                       Arlington             -    Arlington Jacovino XC Racing NY
   East Aurora          -  Aurora  NY                            St. Anthony's         -    Assisi XC club  NY
   Burnt Hills          -  BHBL Track Club  NY                   East Aurora           -    Aurora  NY
   Rush-Henrietta       -  Comets TC  NY                         Baldwinsville         -    Baldwinsville Harriers  NY
   Cornwall             -  Cornwall Track Club  NY               Carmel                -    Carmel Running Club  NY
   Guilderland          -  Guilderland Dutchmen RC  NY           Rush-Henrietta        -    Comets TC  NY
   Honeoye Falls-Lima   -  HFL Cougars XC  NY                    Walt Whitman          -    Dead Poet Society XC  NY
   Hilton               -  Hilton XC Club  NY                    Pawling               -    Fly Out Die Out  NY
   Saratoga Springs     -  Kinetic Running Club  NY              Chaminade             -    Flyers  NY
   Fayetteville-Manlius -  Manlius XC  NY                        Mount Academy         -    Fox Hill Running Club  NY
   Maple Grove          -  MG Harriers  NY                       Glens Falls           -    Glens Falls Harriers  NY
   Nanuet               -  Nanuet Lady Knights  NY               Honeoye Falls-Lima    -    HFL Cougars XC  NY
   North Shore          -  North Shore Running Club  NY          Hilton                -    Hilton XC Club  NY
   Pearl River          -  Pearl River Running Lady Pirates NY   Irondequoit           -    ITown XC Club  NY
   Sachem East          -  Sachem Spiked Shoe Club  NY           Saratoga Springs      -    Kinetic Running Club  NY
   Suffern              -  Suffern Lady Mounties  NY             ND-Bishop Gibbons     -    Knightrunners RC  NY
   Syosset              -  Syosset TC  NY                        Xavier                -    Knights Cross Country Club  NY
   Westhill-Ludden      -  Syracuse Track Club  NY               Franklin Academy      -    Malone Track Club  NY
                                                                 Fayetteville-Manlius  -    Manlius XC  NY
                                                                 Northport             -    Northport Track Club  NY
                                                                 Collegiate            -    Riverside Runners  NY
                                                                 Syosset               -    Syosset TC  NY
                                                                 Westhill-Ludden       -    Syracuse Track Club  NY
                                                                 Webster Thomas        -    Titan Ridge Runners  NY
                                                                 Monsignor Farrell     -    Vir Fidelis Track Club  NY
                                                                 Warwick Valley        -    Warwick XC Club  NY
   ** NOTE ... Only Teams with 5+ runners listed here


 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a slight favorite over Saratoga

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     135    (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       86 
 2   Saratoga                 140    (02-A )     Saratoga                   98 
 3   Northport                155    (11-A )     St. Anthony's             137 
 4   St. Anthony's            195    (CHSAA)     Arlington                 157 
 5   Arlington                210    (01-A )     Warwick Valley            209 
 6   Bishop Gibbons           230    (02-B )     Rush-Henrietta            218 
 7   Chaminade                235    (CHSAA)     Northport                 239 
 8   Warwick Valley           240    (09-A )     Walt Whitman              246 
 9   Rush-Henrietta           260    (05-A )     East Aurora               248 
 10  Walt Whitman             270    (11-A )     Collegiate                306 
 11  Collegiate               271    (AIS  )     Mount Academy             311 
 12  East Aurora              300    (06-B )     Baldwinsville             336 
 13  Baldwinsville            337    (03-A )     Pawling                   393 
 14  Carmel                   374    (01-A )     Syosset                   399 
 15  Monsignor Farrell        385    (CHSAA)     Carmel                    414 
 16  Webster Thomas           421    (05-A )     Xavier                    427 
 17  Xavier                   429    (CHS  )     Webster Thomas            431 
 18  Syosset                  430    (08-A )     Bishop Gibbons            434 
 19  Hilton                   441    (05-A )     Hilton                    443 
 20  Irondequoit              458    (05-A )     Franklin Academy          465 
 21  Pawling                  462    (01-C )     Monsignor Farrell         489 
 22  Mount Academy            479    (09-D )     Irondequoit               506 
 23  Franklin Academy         485    (10-B )     Honeoye Falls-Lima        577 
 24  Honeoye Falls-Lima       553    (05-B )     Westhill-Ludden           579 
 25  Westhill-Ludden          619    (03-B )     Glens Falls               639 
 26  Glens Falls              659    (02-B )

Pre-Race Analysis: ... Fayetteville-Manlius lost to Saratoga by one point at States (Class A) and by 4 points in the State Merge ... In reality, this race appears to be a toss-up between Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga with Northport and St. Anthony's not that far behind ... Fayetteville-Manlius gets a small advantage in the overall scoring because their top two runners (Nick Ryan and Bryce Millar) are likely to get the FM scoring off to a very good start. 

As usual, Fayetteville-Manlius skipped the Federation Meet ... Saratoga won the Federation Meet impressively by 50 points over Arlington ... Northport was 5th at Feds, but one of their top scorers did not compete (but he is listed in the NXN entries).

Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last year it was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as the primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... Strong probability that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.

Individual Race ... Nick Ryan (FM) is the favorite, but if the FM boy's team qualifies for NXN, he will not use one of the five individual qualifying spots ... Eric Holt (Carmel) and Sibby Hanson (Arlington) run very well at Bowdoin and are likely qualifiers ... Thomas Slattery (Chaminade) popped a big performance at Feds, and a similar performance is a likely qualifying spot ...TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore), Mickey Burke (Rush-Henrietta) and Bryce Millar (FM) have been running at levels likely to qualify ... other top runners are serious challengers such as Jeffery Antolos (Notre Dame-Batavia) and Alec Peinkofer (Baldwinsville).




 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius      35    (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       28 
 2   Saratoga                  75    (02-A )     Saratoga                   59 
 3   Holy Names                80    (02-B )     East Aurora               123 
 4   East Aurora              140    (06-B )     Holy Names                132 
 5   Burnt Hills              166    (02-B )     Burnt Hills               157 
 6   Rush-Henrietta           220    (05-A )     Rush-Henrietta            191 
 7   Nanuet                   245    (01-B )     North Shore               194 
 8   North Shore              250    (08-B )     Suffern                   203 
 9   Suffern                  260    (01-A )     Guilderland               293 
 10  Maple Grove              270    (06-D )     Syosset                   298 
 11  Guilderland              299    (02-A )     Cornwall                  312 
 12  Pearl River              320    (01-B )     Maple Grove               324 
 13  Syosset                  350    (08-A )     Westhill-Ludden           326 
 14  Cornwall                 361    (09-B )     Honeoye Falls-Lima        330 
 15  Sachem East              367    (11-A )     Hilton                    356 
 16  Westhill-Ludden          369    (03-B )     Sachem East               361 
 17  Hilton                   370    (05-A )
 18  Honeoye Falls-Lima       370    (05-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race (and NXN Nationals) ... Last year's top runner, Jillian Fanning, has been hampered this season by a leg injury and then by bronchitis at sectionals and States, so don't be surprised to see an improved performance from her.

Saratoga ran very well in beating Holy Names by 31 points at Federations, but I think an improved Holy Names performance is likely at this race.

East Aurora skipped Federations after finishing a very decent 4th in the merge at States (behind FM, Holy Names and Saratoga) ... a similar performance at this NXN regional meet should put them (or any other team with a similar performance) in the hunt for an at-large bid to NXN Nationals.

North Shore ran very nicely at Feds to finish 4th ... Jessica Donohue, who is coming off an injury (and did not run at Feds), is listed in the entries; a good performance by her will help their score significantly (Nov 22 update - Jessica Donohue will not be running, so I modified the North Shore score).

Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) ran the Fred Lebow 5K Cross Country race at Van Cortlandt Park on Sunday (Nov 18) and finished with an outstanding time of 17:26.0 which would be the 10th fastest high school girl's time ever recorded on the 5K Van Cortlandt Park course ... the fastest "recent" time on the VCP 5K course was Emily Jones's 17:31.1 in winning the 2008 Footlocker NE regional ... all other fastest top 10 times at VCP are pre-1985 except the winning Footlocker (Kinney) time in 1994 (17:23.3) ... Cathy Schiro's 16:46.0 is the fastest 5K time run at VCP which was run at Footlocker NE (Kinney) in 1984 (the boy's winning time at that meet was 15:25.7 by John Trautmann) .....  Speed Rating Mary Cain's 17:26.0 - very uncertain because I don't which "5K course" was used and there weren't any "reference runners" in the race for me to correlate ... assuming the same course that the PSAL and NYSAIS used for their championship races, the speed rating would be 159.3 for an all-girls race (or 157.3 for the boys) ... in any case, it appears to be the 2nd best girl's speed rating in the nation this season (the best is Sarah Baxter's 164.0 at the Mt SAC Invite in CA).

The top  five girls not on a team that qualifies for NXN are the individual qualifiers ... Bella Burda (Arlington) won the the Federation Meet impressively, and is a favorite to qualify along with Mary Cain ... I think a bunch of girls have a legitimate shot for the other three qualifying spots.