| Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2012 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 24, 2012
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 21, 2012 ...... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012 |
.... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012
| NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries (several scoring team runners from previous races were not listed in the entries, so I excluded them) |
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
NY GIRLS TEAMS Entered NY BOYS TEAMS Entered
SCHOOL CLUB NAME SCHOOL CLUB NAME
Holy Names - AHN-XC Club NY Arlington - Arlington Jacovino XC Racing NY
East Aurora - Aurora NY St. Anthony's - Assisi XC club NY
Burnt Hills - BHBL Track Club NY East Aurora - Aurora NY
Rush-Henrietta - Comets TC NY Baldwinsville - Baldwinsville Harriers NY
Cornwall - Cornwall Track Club NY Carmel - Carmel Running Club NY
Guilderland - Guilderland Dutchmen RC NY Rush-Henrietta - Comets TC NY
Honeoye Falls-Lima - HFL Cougars XC NY Walt Whitman - Dead Poet Society XC NY
Hilton - Hilton XC Club NY Pawling - Fly Out Die Out NY
Saratoga Springs - Kinetic Running Club NY Chaminade - Flyers NY
Fayetteville-Manlius - Manlius XC NY Mount Academy - Fox Hill Running Club NY
Maple Grove - MG Harriers NY Glens Falls - Glens Falls Harriers NY
Nanuet - Nanuet Lady Knights NY Honeoye Falls-Lima - HFL Cougars XC NY
North Shore - North Shore Running Club NY Hilton - Hilton XC Club NY
Pearl River - Pearl River Running Lady Pirates NY Irondequoit - ITown XC Club NY
Sachem East - Sachem Spiked Shoe Club NY Saratoga Springs - Kinetic Running Club NY
Suffern - Suffern Lady Mounties NY ND-Bishop Gibbons - Knightrunners RC NY
Syosset - Syosset TC NY Xavier - Knights Cross Country Club NY
Westhill-Ludden - Syracuse Track Club NY Franklin Academy - Malone Track Club NY
Fayetteville-Manlius - Manlius XC NY
Northport - Northport Track Club NY
Collegiate - Riverside Runners NY
Syosset - Syosset TC NY
Westhill-Ludden - Syracuse Track Club NY
Webster Thomas - Titan Ridge Runners NY
Monsignor Farrell - Vir Fidelis Track Club NY
Warwick Valley - Warwick XC Club NY
** NOTE ... Only Teams with 5+ runners listed here
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| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a slight favorite over Saratoga |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 135 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 86
2 Saratoga 140 (02-A ) Saratoga 98
3 Northport 155 (11-A ) St. Anthony's 137
4 St. Anthony's 195 (CHSAA) Arlington 157
5 Arlington 210 (01-A ) Warwick Valley 209
6 Bishop Gibbons 230 (02-B ) Rush-Henrietta 218
7 Chaminade 235 (CHSAA) Northport 239
8 Warwick Valley 240 (09-A ) Walt Whitman 246
9 Rush-Henrietta 260 (05-A ) East Aurora 248
10 Walt Whitman 270 (11-A ) Collegiate 306
11 Collegiate 271 (AIS ) Mount Academy 311
12 East Aurora 300 (06-B ) Baldwinsville 336
13 Baldwinsville 337 (03-A ) Pawling 393
14 Carmel 374 (01-A ) Syosset 399
15 Monsignor Farrell 385 (CHSAA) Carmel 414
16 Webster Thomas 421 (05-A ) Xavier 427
17 Xavier 429 (CHS ) Webster Thomas 431
18 Syosset 430 (08-A ) Bishop Gibbons 434
19 Hilton 441 (05-A ) Hilton 443
20 Irondequoit 458 (05-A ) Franklin Academy 465
21 Pawling 462 (01-C ) Monsignor Farrell 489
22 Mount Academy 479 (09-D ) Irondequoit 506
23 Franklin Academy 485 (10-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 577
24 Honeoye Falls-Lima 553 (05-B ) Westhill-Ludden 579
25 Westhill-Ludden 619 (03-B ) Glens Falls 639
26 Glens Falls 659 (02-B )
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Pre-Race Analysis: ...
Fayetteville-Manlius lost to Saratoga by one point at
States (Class A) and by 4 points in the State Merge ... In reality, this
race appears to be a toss-up between
Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga with Northport
and St. Anthony's not that far behind ...
Fayetteville-Manlius gets a small advantage in the overall
scoring because their top two runners (Nick Ryan and Bryce
Millar) are likely to get the FM scoring off to a very good
start.
As usual, Fayetteville-Manlius skipped the Federation Meet ... Saratoga won the Federation Meet impressively by 50 points over Arlington ... Northport was 5th at Feds, but one of their top scorers did not compete (but he is listed in the NXN entries). Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last year it was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as the primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... Strong probability that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances. Individual Race ... Nick Ryan (FM) is the favorite, but if the FM boy's team qualifies for NXN, he will not use one of the five individual qualifying spots ... Eric Holt (Carmel) and Sibby Hanson (Arlington) run very well at Bowdoin and are likely qualifiers ... Thomas Slattery (Chaminade) popped a big performance at Feds, and a similar performance is a likely qualifying spot ...TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore), Mickey Burke (Rush-Henrietta) and Bryce Millar (FM) have been running at levels likely to qualify ... other top runners are serious challengers such as Jeffery Antolos (Notre Dame-Batavia) and Alec Peinkofer (Baldwinsville).
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| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again |
Projected ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 35 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 28
2 Saratoga 75 (02-A ) Saratoga 59
3 Holy Names 80 (02-B ) East Aurora 123
4 East Aurora 140 (06-B ) Holy Names 132
5 Burnt Hills 166 (02-B ) Burnt Hills 157
6 Rush-Henrietta 220 (05-A ) Rush-Henrietta 191
7 Nanuet 245 (01-B ) North Shore 194
8 North Shore 250 (08-B ) Suffern 203
9 Suffern 260 (01-A ) Guilderland 293
10 Maple Grove 270 (06-D ) Syosset 298
11 Guilderland 299 (02-A ) Cornwall 312
12 Pearl River 320 (01-B ) Maple Grove 324
13 Syosset 350 (08-A ) Westhill-Ludden 326
14 Cornwall 361 (09-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 330
15 Sachem East 367 (11-A ) Hilton 356
16 Westhill-Ludden 369 (03-B ) Sachem East 361
17 Hilton 370 (05-A )
18 Honeoye Falls-Lima 370 (05-B )
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals) ... Last year's top runner, Jillian
Fanning, has been hampered this season by a leg injury and then by
bronchitis at sectionals and States, so don't be surprised to see an
improved performance from her. Saratoga ran very well in beating Holy Names by 31 points at Federations, but I think an improved Holy Names performance is likely at this race. East Aurora skipped Federations after finishing a very decent 4th in the merge at States (behind FM, Holy Names and Saratoga) ... a similar performance at this NXN regional meet should put them (or any other team with a similar performance) in the hunt for an at-large bid to NXN Nationals. North Shore ran very nicely at Feds to finish 4th ... Jessica Donohue, who is coming off an injury (and did not run at Feds), is listed in the entries; a good performance by her will help their score significantly (Nov 22 update - Jessica Donohue will not be running, so I modified the North Shore score). Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) ran the Fred Lebow 5K Cross Country race at Van Cortlandt Park on Sunday (Nov 18) and finished with an outstanding time of 17:26.0 which would be the 10th fastest high school girl's time ever recorded on the 5K Van Cortlandt Park course ... the fastest "recent" time on the VCP 5K course was Emily Jones's 17:31.1 in winning the 2008 Footlocker NE regional ... all other fastest top 10 times at VCP are pre-1985 except the winning Footlocker (Kinney) time in 1994 (17:23.3) ... Cathy Schiro's 16:46.0 is the fastest 5K time run at VCP which was run at Footlocker NE (Kinney) in 1984 (the boy's winning time at that meet was 15:25.7 by John Trautmann) ..... Speed Rating Mary Cain's 17:26.0 - very uncertain because I don't which "5K course" was used and there weren't any "reference runners" in the race for me to correlate ... assuming the same course that the PSAL and NYSAIS used for their championship races, the speed rating would be 159.3 for an all-girls race (or 157.3 for the boys) ... in any case, it appears to be the 2nd best girl's speed rating in the nation this season (the best is Sarah Baxter's 164.0 at the Mt SAC Invite in CA). The top five girls not on a team that qualifies for NXN are the individual qualifiers ... Bella Burda (Arlington) won the the Federation Meet impressively, and is a favorite to qualify along with Mary Cain ... I think a bunch of girls have a legitimate shot for the other three qualifying spots.
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