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|Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2012|
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 24, 2012
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 21, 2012 ...... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012|
.... Actual Scores Added Nov 26, 2012
|NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries (several scoring team runners from previous races were not listed in the entries, so I excluded them)|
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]
NY GIRLS TEAMS Entered NY BOYS TEAMS Entered SCHOOL CLUB NAME SCHOOL CLUB NAME Holy Names - AHN-XC Club NY Arlington - Arlington Jacovino XC Racing NY East Aurora - Aurora NY St. Anthony's - Assisi XC club NY Burnt Hills - BHBL Track Club NY East Aurora - Aurora NY Rush-Henrietta - Comets TC NY Baldwinsville - Baldwinsville Harriers NY Cornwall - Cornwall Track Club NY Carmel - Carmel Running Club NY Guilderland - Guilderland Dutchmen RC NY Rush-Henrietta - Comets TC NY Honeoye Falls-Lima - HFL Cougars XC NY Walt Whitman - Dead Poet Society XC NY Hilton - Hilton XC Club NY Pawling - Fly Out Die Out NY Saratoga Springs - Kinetic Running Club NY Chaminade - Flyers NY Fayetteville-Manlius - Manlius XC NY Mount Academy - Fox Hill Running Club NY Maple Grove - MG Harriers NY Glens Falls - Glens Falls Harriers NY Nanuet - Nanuet Lady Knights NY Honeoye Falls-Lima - HFL Cougars XC NY North Shore - North Shore Running Club NY Hilton - Hilton XC Club NY Pearl River - Pearl River Running Lady Pirates NY Irondequoit - ITown XC Club NY Sachem East - Sachem Spiked Shoe Club NY Saratoga Springs - Kinetic Running Club NY Suffern - Suffern Lady Mounties NY ND-Bishop Gibbons - Knightrunners RC NY Syosset - Syosset TC NY Xavier - Knights Cross Country Club NY Westhill-Ludden - Syracuse Track Club NY Franklin Academy - Malone Track Club NY Fayetteville-Manlius - Manlius XC NY Northport - Northport Track Club NY Collegiate - Riverside Runners NY Syosset - Syosset TC NY Westhill-Ludden - Syracuse Track Club NY Webster Thomas - Titan Ridge Runners NY Monsignor Farrell - Vir Fidelis Track Club NY Warwick Valley - Warwick XC Club NY ** NOTE ... Only Teams with 5+ runners listed here
|Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a slight favorite over Saratoga|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 135 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 86 2 Saratoga 140 (02-A ) Saratoga 98 3 Northport 155 (11-A ) St. Anthony's 137 4 St. Anthony's 195 (CHSAA) Arlington 157 5 Arlington 210 (01-A ) Warwick Valley 209 6 Bishop Gibbons 230 (02-B ) Rush-Henrietta 218 7 Chaminade 235 (CHSAA) Northport 239 8 Warwick Valley 240 (09-A ) Walt Whitman 246 9 Rush-Henrietta 260 (05-A ) East Aurora 248 10 Walt Whitman 270 (11-A ) Collegiate 306 11 Collegiate 271 (AIS ) Mount Academy 311 12 East Aurora 300 (06-B ) Baldwinsville 336 13 Baldwinsville 337 (03-A ) Pawling 393 14 Carmel 374 (01-A ) Syosset 399 15 Monsignor Farrell 385 (CHSAA) Carmel 414 16 Webster Thomas 421 (05-A ) Xavier 427 17 Xavier 429 (CHS ) Webster Thomas 431 18 Syosset 430 (08-A ) Bishop Gibbons 434 19 Hilton 441 (05-A ) Hilton 443 20 Irondequoit 458 (05-A ) Franklin Academy 465 21 Pawling 462 (01-C ) Monsignor Farrell 489 22 Mount Academy 479 (09-D ) Irondequoit 506 23 Franklin Academy 485 (10-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 577 24 Honeoye Falls-Lima 553 (05-B ) Westhill-Ludden 579 25 Westhill-Ludden 619 (03-B ) Glens Falls 639 26 Glens Falls 659 (02-B )
Pre-Race Analysis: ...
Fayetteville-Manlius lost to Saratoga by one point at
States (Class A) and by 4 points in the State Merge ... In reality, this
race appears to be a toss-up between
Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga with Northport
and St. Anthony's not that far behind ...
Fayetteville-Manlius gets a small advantage in the overall
scoring because their top two runners (Nick Ryan and Bryce
Millar) are likely to get the FM scoring off to a very good
As usual, Fayetteville-Manlius skipped the Federation Meet ... Saratoga won the Federation Meet impressively by 50 points over Arlington ... Northport was 5th at Feds, but one of their top scorers did not compete (but he is listed in the NXN entries).
Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last year it was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as the primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... Strong probability that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.
Individual Race ... Nick Ryan (FM) is the favorite, but if the FM boy's team qualifies for NXN, he will not use one of the five individual qualifying spots ... Eric Holt (Carmel) and Sibby Hanson (Arlington) run very well at Bowdoin and are likely qualifiers ... Thomas Slattery (Chaminade) popped a big performance at Feds, and a similar performance is a likely qualifying spot ...TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore), Mickey Burke (Rush-Henrietta) and Bryce Millar (FM) have been running at levels likely to qualify ... other top runners are serious challengers such as Jeffery Antolos (Notre Dame-Batavia) and Alec Peinkofer (Baldwinsville).
|Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 35 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 28 2 Saratoga 75 (02-A ) Saratoga 59 3 Holy Names 80 (02-B ) East Aurora 123 4 East Aurora 140 (06-B ) Holy Names 132 5 Burnt Hills 166 (02-B ) Burnt Hills 157 6 Rush-Henrietta 220 (05-A ) Rush-Henrietta 191 7 Nanuet 245 (01-B ) North Shore 194 8 North Shore 250 (08-B ) Suffern 203 9 Suffern 260 (01-A ) Guilderland 293 10 Maple Grove 270 (06-D ) Syosset 298 11 Guilderland 299 (02-A ) Cornwall 312 12 Pearl River 320 (01-B ) Maple Grove 324 13 Syosset 350 (08-A ) Westhill-Ludden 326 14 Cornwall 361 (09-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 330 15 Sachem East 367 (11-A ) Hilton 356 16 Westhill-Ludden 369 (03-B ) Sachem East 361 17 Hilton 370 (05-A ) 18 Honeoye Falls-Lima 370 (05-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals) ... Last year's top runner, Jillian
Fanning, has been hampered this season by a leg injury and then by
bronchitis at sectionals and States, so don't be surprised to see an
improved performance from her.
Saratoga ran very well in beating Holy Names by 31 points at Federations, but I think an improved Holy Names performance is likely at this race.
East Aurora skipped Federations after finishing a very decent 4th in the merge at States (behind FM, Holy Names and Saratoga) ... a similar performance at this NXN regional meet should put them (or any other team with a similar performance) in the hunt for an at-large bid to NXN Nationals.
North Shore ran very nicely at Feds to finish 4th ... Jessica Donohue, who is coming off an injury (and did not run at Feds), is listed in the entries; a good performance by her will help their score significantly (Nov 22 update - Jessica Donohue will not be running, so I modified the North Shore score).
Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) ran the Fred Lebow 5K Cross Country race at Van Cortlandt Park on Sunday (Nov 18) and finished with an outstanding time of 17:26.0 which would be the 10th fastest high school girl's time ever recorded on the 5K Van Cortlandt Park course ... the fastest "recent" time on the VCP 5K course was Emily Jones's 17:31.1 in winning the 2008 Footlocker NE regional ... all other fastest top 10 times at VCP are pre-1985 except the winning Footlocker (Kinney) time in 1994 (17:23.3) ... Cathy Schiro's 16:46.0 is the fastest 5K time run at VCP which was run at Footlocker NE (Kinney) in 1984 (the boy's winning time at that meet was 15:25.7 by John Trautmann) ..... Speed Rating Mary Cain's 17:26.0 - very uncertain because I don't which "5K course" was used and there weren't any "reference runners" in the race for me to correlate ... assuming the same course that the PSAL and NYSAIS used for their championship races, the speed rating would be 159.3 for an all-girls race (or 157.3 for the boys) ... in any case, it appears to be the 2nd best girl's speed rating in the nation this season (the best is Sarah Baxter's 164.0 at the Mt SAC Invite in CA).
The top five girls not on a team that qualifies for NXN are the individual qualifiers ... Bella Burda (Arlington) won the the Federation Meet impressively, and is a favorite to qualify along with Mary Cain ... I think a bunch of girls have a legitimate shot for the other three qualifying spots.