NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      66        Saratoga               57 
  2   Northport            (11)      75        Fayetteville-Manlius   58 
  3   Saratoga             (02)      85        Northport              78 
  4   Warwick Valley       (09)     105        Arlington             113 
  5   Arlington            (01)     114        Warwick Valley        119 
  6   Rush-Henrietta       (05)     115        Rush-Henrietta        120 
  7   Corning              (04)     131        Corning               177 
  8   Syosset              (08)     180        Syosset               197 
  9   Clarence             (06)     210        Clarence              220 

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite in Class A ... Fayetteville-Manlius has a one-two punch advantage with Nick Ryan and Bryce Millar up front ... Some inconsistencies (from various team runners) and questions make this a bit uncertain with respect to prediction, so this race "might" have some surprises ... Warwick Valley's top runner (Grant Parrelli) did not compete at sectionals, but I did use him in the projected scoring ... If FM falters at the 3rd, 4th or 5th scoring positions, several teams have a change to win ... A very good final race of the day!

Individual Race ... Nick Ryan (FM) had another "special" performance at sectionals and is the solid favorite to win; according to my current numbers, Nick Ryan is the #2 runner in the nation (behind only Edward Cheserek of New Jersey) ... Eric Holt (Carmel) and Sibby Hanson (Arlington) popped some big performances at sectionals, but others in this field are capable of big performances as well ... This is a top notch individual race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Nick Ryan             12   03-A    FM                     200
2   Eric Holt             12   01-A    Carmel                 190
3   Sibby Hanson          12   01-A    Arlington              190
4   Bryce Millar          10   03-A    FM                     189
5   Mickey Burke          11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         188
6   Kris Moran            12   11-A    North Babylon          188
7   Mike Branigan         10   11-A    Northport              186
8   Michael Damato        12   11-A    Walt Whitman           185
9   Zachary Cammer        12   11-A    Walt Whitman           184
10  Benito Muniz          10   01-A    Carmel                 183
11  Jack Curran           12   08-A    Calhoun                183
12  Alec Peinkofer        12   03-A    Baldwinsville          181
13  James Vallar          12   11-A    Walt Whitman           181
14  Tim McGowan           11   11-A    Northport              181
15  Philo Germano         12   02-A    Albany                 180
16  Tyler Ranke           11   05-A    Hilton                 180
17  Brennan Root          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         180

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   ND-Bishop Gibbons    (02)      70        ND-Bishop Gibbons      63
  2   East Aurora          (06)      85        East Aurora            84
  3   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      90        Pittsford Mendon       89
  4   Franklin Academy     (10)      93        Franklin Academy      126
  5   Port Jervis          (09)     130        Tappan Zee            127
  6   Tappan Zee           (01)     130        Maine Endwell         128
  8   Maine-Endwell        (04)     140        Port Jervis           136
  7   Shoreham-Wading Riv  (11)     141        Garden City           174
  9   Westhill-Ludden      (03)     190        Shoreham Wading Riv   181
  10  Garden City          (08)     201        Westhill-Ludden       200
  11  Peru                 (07)     342        Peru                  342

Pre-Race Analysis ... Notre Dame-Bishop Gibbons is really a Class D school by enrollment, but gets classified up as a private school by the rules applied in Section 2 (a committee of public school officials determine the classification) ... Bishop Gibbons enters the Class B race as the morning-line favorite, but they have some stiff competition ... Defending Class B champion East Aurora is strong once again and they have the "home-course" advantage ... and very close behind East Aurora are talented teams from Pittsford Mendon and Franklin Academy of Malone ... This could be the closest match-up for the winning spot all day.

Individual Race ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) has been racing extremely well recently and is very familiar with Elma Meadows ... Co-favorite Ryan Manahan (Marcellus) picks his spots for big efforts and this will likely be one of them ... Ryan Udvadia (Shoreham WR) is also capable of a big performance.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   TJ Hornberger         11   06-B    Lake Shore             189
2   Ryan Manahan          12   03-B    Marcellus              189
3   Ryan Udvadia          11   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R      185
4   Brian Cook            11   01-B    Pearl River            182
5   Stephen Bourguet      12   08-B    Manhasset              182
6   Tom Meehan            11   11-B    EastportSManor         179
7   Jordan Pantalone      12   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         179
8   Alfredo Mazzuca       12   09-B    New Paltz              179
9   Conor Gordon          12   10-B    Franklin Acad          179
10  Jason Lange           12   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         179
11  Sean Phillips         12   06-B    East Aurora            179
12  Andrew Tario          12   02-B    Averill Park           177
13  Jack Wesley           11   05-B    Pittsford Mend         177
14  Dana Carris           11   04-B    Vestal                 177
15  David Busby           12   09-B    New Paltz              176
16  Luke Gavigan          10   01-B    Tappan Zee             176
17  Adam Lafemina         12   11-B    Bayport-BluePt         176
18  James Gowans          12   03-B    Mexico                 176
19  Mike Watts            11   11-B    Islip                  176
20  Declan Dwyer-McNulty  12   09-B    Red Hook               176
21  Morgan Marlow         12   10-B    Franklin Acad          176
22  Kobie Lane            10   09-B    Port Jervis            176

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pawling              (01)      71        Pawling                42
  2   Fonda Fultonville    (02)      87        Fonda-Fultonville      66
  3   Alden                (06)     109        Hannibal              117
  4   Hannibal             (03)     113        Alden                 124
  5   Rhinebeck            (09)     138        Trumansburg           145
  6   Friends  Academy     (08)     161        Addison               175
  7   Trumansburg          (04)     163        Babylon               181
  8   Beekmantown          (07)     200        Beekmantown           182
  9   Babylon              (11)     200        Rhinebeck             194
  10  Addison              (05)     214        Friends Academy       214
  11  Gouverneur           (10)     228        Gouverneur            252
  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Pawling, 2nd at States last year by only two points, is the choice as the morning-line favorite ... Fonda Fultonville, 3rd at States last year (only 3 points behind Pawling), is picked for the runner-up spot.

Individual Race ... Jeffery Antolos (Notre Dame-Batavia) is the favorite to win ... a group of guys look competitive for the 2nd spot.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Jeffrey Antolos       12   05-C    Notre Dame-Bat         185
2   Matthew Hoffman       12   02-C    Fonda Fultonvill       177
3   Stephen Shine         12   01-C    Briarcliff             176
4   Matt Jorgensen        12   01-C    Pawling                176
5   John Flannery         11   01-C    Bronxville             175
6   Jeriqho Gadway        10   07-C    Plattsburgh            172
7   Ryan Perry            12   03-C    Hannibal               172
8   Tyler Sutherland      11   04-C    Trumansburg            172
9   Seamus Degan          12   06-C    City Honors            171
10  Matt Cregan           12   03-C    Solvay                 171
11  Jordan Healy          11   02-C    Maple Hill             170
12  Cullin Burdett        12   01-C    North Salem            170
13  Peter Sander          12   09-C    Dover                  170
14  Matt Gill             11   04-C    Watkins Glen           170
15  Matt Watson           12   02-C    Schuylerville          170
16  Ross Wightman         12   02-C    Chatham                170

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Mount Academy        (09)      42        Mount Academy          54
  2   Barker               (06)      79        Barker                 69
  3   Beaver River         (03)      92        Beaver River           86
  4   Greenwich            (02)     101        Greenwich             114
  5   Southern Cayuga      (04)     139        Ticonderoga           114
  6   Ticonderoga          (07)     149        Caledonia-Mumford     130
  7   Caledonia Mumford    (05)     150        Haldane               176
  8   Haldane              (01)     211        Southern Cayuga       212
  9   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     226        Norwood-Norfolk       213
  10  Southold             (11)     247        Southold              264
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Mount Academy is the "new" school in 2012 ... The Mount Academy was founded only two years ago by the Bruderhof religious community ... Initially, the school was only two grades but was expanded to grades 9-12 this fall, and the "new" cross country team has been very good for a school that totals only about 200 students (boys plus girls).

Individual Race ...  Gabe Rodriguez (Geneseo) is the favorite - appears that Gabe coasted to an easy win at sectionals after popping a huge performance at leagues ... A group of guys seem evenly matched for the next finishing places ... Corey Wefing (Maple Grove) is familiar with course which could be an advantage.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Gabe Rodriguez        12   05-D    Geneseo                185
2   Alex Campanella       12   09-D    Eldred                 177
3   Corey Wefing          11   06-D    Maple Grove            177
4   Jeremy Spiezio        10   02-D    Greenwich              177
5   Michael May           12   04-D    Southern Cayuga        176
6   Tom McClellan         12   02-D    Mayfield               175
7   Rufus Wareham         12   09-D    Mount Academy          171
8   Alex Hall             12   03-D    Beaver River           166
9   Mitchell Ryan         12   07-D    Seton Catholic         166
10  Jacob Urys            12   02-D    Mekeel Christian       166
11  Nicholas Spina        11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        166
12  Leroy Meier           12   09-D    Mount Academy          165
13  Jordan Bender         12   06-D    Barker                 165
14  Seth Baker            12   03-D    Weedsport              162

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      30        Fayetteville-Manlius   32
  2   Saratoga             (02)      60        Saratoga Springs       56
  3   Rush-Henrietta       (05)     115        Rush-Henrietta        106
  4   Warwick Valley       (09)     115        Warwick Valley        124
  5   Suffern              (01)     135        Suffern               145
  6   Northport            (11)     159        Northport             161
  7   Clarence             (06)     177        Syosset               161
  8   Elmira District      (04)     178        Elmira District       185
  9   Syosset              (08)     185        Clarence              192
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top team in the nation (again) and the odds-on favorite to win this race over Saratoga who is one of the top ten teams in the nation ... This should be an interesting test for both teams ... Fayetteville-Manlius has raced "sparingly" this season with absolutely no real tests at a 5K distance ... FM lost at Manhattan which is only 2.5-miles (not a championship cross country distance in my opinion), and their races at leagues and sectionals were not competitive ... This Class A race features some really good runners, so it will be interesting to see where the FM and Saratoga girls place in this race (and in the merge).

Individual Race ... Looks like a very competitive race to me ... I could make a case for half-a-dozen girls winning this race, and it might come down to sprint to the finish ... Katie Lembo (Penfield), Isabella Burda (Arlington) and Megan Reilly (Warwick) have been performing very well ... Annika Avery (FM) popped a big performance at sectionals, and the Elma Meadows course might suit Taylor Driscoll (Saratoga) very well ... Add in other girls from the list below and this is an excellent race.

Jillian Fanning (FM) has been hampered by a chronic leg injury and then ran sectionals with a severe virus infection ... she was literally carried from the finish chute by her team mates because she only knows 110% efforts ... assuming her leg is not bothering her too much and the virus is cleared-up, there just might be a repeat winner in the Class A race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Katie Lembo           11   05-A    Penfield               146
2   Isabella Burda        10   01-A    Arlington              146
3   Megan Reilly          9    09-A    Warwick                146
4   Annika Avery          10   03-A    FM                     143
5   Taylor Driscoll       12   02-A    Saratoga               142
6   Gianna Frontera       11   09-A    Newburgh               141
7   Kennedy Jensen        11   05-A    Canandaigua            141
8   Alana Pearl           11   03-A    FM                     140
9   Marissa Saenger       11   06-A    Clarence               138
10  Holly Cavalluzzo      12   09-A    Valley Central         137
11  Georgia Tuttle        12   05-A    Irondequoit            137
12  Jillian Fanning       12   03-A    FM                     136
13  Kalleigh Forrester    11   09-A    Newburgh               135
14  Eileen O'Hara         12   05-A    Webster Thomas         134
15  Keelin Hollowood      12   02-A    Saratoga               134
16  Maryanna Lansing      9    02-A    Shaker                 132
17  Delphi Cleaveland     12   01-A    Arlington              132
18  Corrine Florie        12   01-A    Mahopac                132
19  Katie Brislin         12   03-A    FM                     132

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Holy Names           (02)      42        Holy Names             38
  2   East Aurora          (06)      80        East Aurora            66
  3   Nanuet               (01)     113        Nanuet                124
  4   Miller Place         (11)     136        Garden City           130
  7   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)     140        Cornwall              131
  5   Garden City          (08)     141        Canton                143
  6   Cornwall             (09)     142        Miller Place          145
  8   Canton               (10)     145        Honeoye Falls-Lima    150
  9   Westhill-Ludden      (03)     169        Westhill-Ludden       189
  10  Peru                 (07)     246        Peru                  248
  11  Vestal               (04)     327        Vestal                329
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Academy of the Holy Names is one of the top ten teams in the nation and the odds-on favorite to win the Class B race ... East Aurora has been running well recently and has the "home course" advantage ... Nanuet ended Pearl River's Section 1 streak ... Positions 4 through 8 look like a "pick-em" to me.

Individual Race ... Only five speed rating points (15 seconds) separate the top nine runners ... One of the most competitive races of the entire day ... Catherine Maloy leads the excellent Holy Names runners ... Megan Young (Nanuet) has elevated her performance level in recent races and should be considered a co-favorite for the win ... The Section 6 runners, Marta McLaughlin (East Aurtora) and Sophia Tasselmyer (Starpoint) run very well at Elma Meadows.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Catherine Maloy       12   02-B    Holy Names             135
2   Megan Young           12   01-B    Nanuet                 134
3   Tiana Guevara         11   11-B    Miller Place           134
4   Marta McLaughlin      11   06-B    East Aurora            132
5   Sophia Tasselmyer     9    06-B    Starpoint              132
6   Stephanie Gerland     9    08-B    Garden City            132
7   Kelly Hayes           11   01-B    Pearl River            131
8   Kaylee Scott          10   02-B    Holy Names             131
9   Elizabeth Caldwell    12   08-B    North Shore            130
10  Carolyn Hopkins       11   06-B    Williamsville S        128
11  Erin Jaskot           11   01-B    Tappan Zee             128
12  Aileen Doyle          10   06-B    Sweet Home             128
13  Megan Baritot         12   06-B    East Aurora            126
14  Jenny Delsignore      12   06-B    Sweet Home             126
15  Lydia Williams        7    02-B    Holy Names             126
16  Talia Guevara         11   11-B    Miller Place           126
17  Laura Nolan           9    11-B    Miller Place           126
18  Emily Digman          9    02-B    Burnt Hills            125
19  Rachel Garn           11   03-B    Marcellus              125
20  Jen Gerland           10   08-B    Garden City            125

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)      45        Bronxville             36
  2   Tully                (03)      99        Tully                  78
  3   Fredonia             (06)      99        Newark Valley         110
  4   Schuylerville        (02)     110        Mattituck             136
  5   Newark Valley        (04)     128        Fredonia              147
  6   Tri-Valley           (09)     155        Schuylerville         151
  7   Wayland Cohocton     (05)     160        Wayland-Cohocton      168
  8   Mattituck            (11)     161        Tri-Valley            174
  9   Friends Academy      (08)     205        Friends Academy       199
  10  Saranac              (07)     240        Saranac               253
  11  Potsdam              (10)     275        Potsdam               290
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the defending Class C champion and a very solid favorite to repeat despite the absence of Mary Cain who is no longer running for the Bronxville team ... Tully and Fredonia are even-up for the 2nd and 3rd spots; as a horseplayer, I realize that Fredonia is familiar with the course and Tully isn't (but Tully had that advantage last year at VVS).

Individual Race ... Another very competitive race ... Lauren Reyda (Fredonia) is consistently good and familiar with the course ... Emily Waligurski (Onteora) popped a big performance at the Section 9 qualifier on Tuesday (133 speed rating) which is not surprising based on her past performances (especially during track seasons), and team mate Julia Rubin-Armstrong is very good as well ... Maddie Zeitz (Windsor) and Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) have both shown the ability to be serious challengers for the win ... A very competitive race is possible.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Lauren Reyda          10   06-C    Fredonia               127
2   Julia Rubin-Armstrong 11   09-C    Onteora                126
3   Emily Waligurski      12   09-C    Onteora                125
4   Maddie Zeitz          12   04-C    Windsor                125
5   Kaitlyn Neal          9    03-C    Skaneateles            123
6   Megan Ann Pierce      11   03-C    CBA                    123
7   Abby Gugel            9    03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        121
8   Natalie Tanner        12   01-C    Rye Neck               120
9   Mary Kate Bida        12   09-C    Millbrook              117
10  Jamie Kasza           9    02-C    Fonda-Ful              117
11  Ashleigh Crawford     9    03-C    Tully                  116
12  Kelly Bochnewetch     11   06-C    Newfane                115
13  Victoria Hathaway     12   02-C    Stillwater             115
14  Kaitlin Ryan          8    01-C    Bronxville             114
15  Meghann Tanner        10   03-C    Adirondack             114
16  Kelly Pasko           12   02-C    Maple Hill             113
17  Jeanette Cudney       11   03-C    Cazenovia              113
18  Madeline Adams        11   03-C    Skaneateles            112
19  Jenna Cupp            12   04-C    Newark Valley          112
20  Ashley Watson         8    02-C    Schuylerville          111
21  Meghan Curtin         9    05-C    Wayland Cohocton       111

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      37        Maple Grove            42
  2   Greenwich            (02)      58        Greenwich              63
  3   South Lewis          (03)      87        South Lewis            81
  4   Notre Dame-Batavia   (05)     116        Notre Dame-Batavia    114
  5   Candor               (04)     128        Candor                126
  6   Seton Catholic       (07)     159        Seton Catholic        161
  7   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     175        Norwood-Norfolk       165
  8   Stony Brook          (11)     176        Haldane               187
  9   Haldane              (01)     200        Stony Brook           188
  10  S.S. Seward          (09)     211        Seward                236

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Maple Grove is the defending Class D champion and the favorite to win again ... Greenwich was Class C in 2011, but dropped to Class D in 2012 and is a solid pick to finish 2nd ... South Lewis has run well recently and is picked to finish 3rd.

Individual Race ... Erin McConnell (Fabius-Pompey) is undefeated and has been running very well the entire season with excellent speed ratings (Erin trained with the Fayetteville-Manlius girls during the summer) ... Hope Pietrocarlo (Maple Grove) has come on strongly in last couple of races and is a serious challenger for the individual win; she is familiar with the course and runs well at Elma Meadows which is an advantage ... Could be a good race at the front ... and Madeline Montague (Greenwich) is not far behind the top two.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Erin McConnell        12   03-D    Fabius-Pompey          138
2   Hope Pietrocarlo      9    06-D    Maple Grove            133
3   Madeline Montague     12   02-D    Greenwich              129
4   Tori Spiezio          9    02-D    Greenwich              123
5   Victoria Campanian    12   03-D    South Lewis            123
6   Courtney Tedeschi     12   02-D    Berne-Knox-West        121
7   Megan Marsh           9    06-D    Maple Grove            119
8   Margaret Champagne    9    07-D    Seton Catholic         113
9   Shealyn Doody         10   05-D    Red Jacket             112
10  Gabby Thompson        11   03-D    Watertown IHC          112
11  Holly Eliason         11   06-D    Sherman                110
12  Samantha Fanion       8    03-D    Cooperstown            106
13  Taylor Norris         11   06-D    Maple Grove            105
14  Caroline Benson       11   06-D    Maple Grove            104