| Federation Championship 2011 - Projections |
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the seven runners from each team in the entry lists ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 16, 2011 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... |
Actual Scores added November 20, 2010 ...
[ Girls Projection ]
| BOYS Federation Champ 2011 ... Shaker the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Shaker 120 (02-A ) Shaker 121
2 St. Anthonys 141 (CHSAA) Arlington 155
3 Arlington 141 (01-A ) East Aurora 160
4 Monsignor Farrell 205 (CHSAA) Monsignor Farrell 183
5 East Aurora 220 (06-B ) St. Anthony's 185
6 Warwick Valley 250 (09-A ) Saratoga 215
7 Saratoga 260 (02-A ) Chaminade 219
8 Collegiate 265 (AIS ) Warwick Valley 255
9 Chaminade 302 (CHSAA) Collegiate 309
10 Honeoye Falls-Lima 319 (05-B ) Bethlehem 313
11 Bethlehem 336 (02-A ) Stuyvesant 323
12 Northport 358 (11-A ) Burnt Hills 329
13 Burnt Hills 380 (02-B ) Maine-Endwell 339
14 Franklin Academy 380 (10-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 351
15 Smithtown 386 (11-A ) Franklin Academy 372
16 Ithaca 391 (04-A ) Pearl River 377
17 Maine-Endwell 395 (04-B ) Northport 408
18 Stuyvesant 396 (PSAL ) St. John Baptist 426
19 Pearl River 400 (01-B ) Xavier 433
20 Bronx HS Science 405 (PSAL ) Bronx Science 463
21 Marcellus 420 (03-B ) Smithtown 480
22 Xavier 439 (CHSAA) Barker 494
23 Corning 465 (04-A ) Ithaca 513
24 St. John Baptist 473 (CHSAA) Corning 597
25 Midwood 662 (PSAL ) Thomas Jefferson 605
26 Thomas Jefferson 670 (PSAL ) Canisius 623
27 Canisius 809 (CHSAA)
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Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races ... Two of the top NY teams opted-out of Federations (Fayetteville-Manlius and Rush-Henrietta). Shaker is the favorite to win ... St. Anthony's and Arlington are not that far behind and appear evenly matched in this race ... Monsignor Farrell is projected in the four-position ... It's been a while since the CHSAA had two of the top four teams at Feds. Individual Race ... Brendan Smith (CBA-Syracuse) has been running very well; he won the Class C title impressively at States and appears to be the slight favorite entering Feds ... However, a number of other runners are very close and should contend for the individual title ... MJ Erb (Victor) had his best performance of the season at States in finishing second to Nick Ryan (FM) and recording the 2nd-best time of the day (his previous best performance was a 3rd-place finish at McQuaid) ... Mike Turi (John Jay EF) is very familiar with Bowdion Park and is expected to be a serious contender ... The CHSAA has several top contenders including Dan Galford (Monsignor Farrell), Thomas Awad (Chaminade) and Ryan Phillips (Regis); last spring, Thomas Awad popped a huge 3200 meter PR at the Outdoor State Meet (9:09), and bears some serious consideration in this race ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) and Ryan Manahan (Marcellus) have been racing well all season. The list below shows the top-rated runners entering Feds. |
Brendan Smith 12 03-C CBA 185 186 184 182 179 185 176 174 Michael Turi 12 01-A John Jay EF 184 183 186 183 184 181 180 176 Dan Galford 11 CHS Monsignor Farrell 183 185 181 184 176 175 173 TJ Hornberger 10 06-B Lake Shore 183 184 182 179 180 185 182 180 180 Ryan Manahan 11 03-B Marcellus 183 184 179 175 183 183 177 176 174 185 180 Paddy Grandinali 12 09-A Warwick 182 184 174 181 181 179 180 Cameron Bruce 12 04-C Lansing 182 180 178 183 185 182 Justin Maguire 12 01-B Brewster 181 183 180 174 182 181 172 182 175 176 179 MJ Erb 12 05-A Victor 181 187 174 161 171 180 170 Thomas Awad 12 CHS Chaminade 181 181 181 181 183 181 180 Sebastion Hanson 11 01-A Arlington 181 182 180 181 177 177 178 174 Eric Holt 11 01-A Carmel 181 173 186 179 175 177 177 168 174 Alec Peinkofer 11 03-A Baldwinsville 181 184 174 179 174 178 180 181 178 Jon Vallecorsa 12 02-A Shaker 181 178 181 180 180 172 178 182 185 181 Konrad Surkont 12 PSA Stuyvesant 181 181 181 179 178 Sam Anderson 12 03-C South Lewis 180 182 181 178 176 170 169 172 167 163 Austin Lane 12 02-C Greenwich 179 179 174 179 184 178 178 Ryan Phillips 12 CHS Regis 179 179 179 178 180 177 175 174 Cooper Roach 12 05-B Honeoye FL 179 175 177 172 179 183 184 Jason Lange 11 02-B Bishop Gibbons 179 180 179 177 173 177 176 160 161 162 Buddy Herkenham 12 02-B Burnt Hills 179 178 180 178 174 177 174 179 159 Eddie Merenda 12 01-A Arlington 178 176 179 180 170 179 176 163 Taylor Love 12 01-B Rye 178 171 178 181 176 167 172 Jack Stevenson 11 PSA Stuyvesant 178 180 175 175 169 170 Christian Delago 12 02-A Shaker 177 179 175 178 174 163 151 Brendan Wortner 12 01-C Dobbs Ferry 177 178 176 173 170 178 170 Jeremy Rushok 12 06-C Akron 177 178 180 172 172 169 167 166 161 155 Alex Campanella 11 09-D Eldred 177 178 167 168 170 182 185 176 Brian Crimmins 12 04-A Horseheads 176 156 181 175 179 175 172 173 175 Frankie Pfeil 12 06-C Roy-Hart 176 168 178 175 170 176 173 174 John Lee 12 11-B Shoreham-Wading R 176 165 178 176 172 177 175 173 179 Stephen Bourguet 11 08-B Manhasset 175 172 179 172 175 170 172 148 Logan Kempney 12 03-D Beaver River 175 173 176 175 162 178 176 174 171 170 Ian Tolan 12 04-A Binghamton 175 175 177 172 165 171 171 170 175 Sean Phillips 11 06-B East Aurora 175 176 176 175 166 176 169 170 166 165 Patrick Ginty 11 CHS St. Anthonys 175 178 166 175 172 170 160 |
| GIRLS Federation Champ 2011 ... Saratoga a big favorite |
Prediction Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Saratoga 69 (02-A ) Saratoga 57
2 Burnt Hills 170 (02-B ) Bronxville 187
3 Ward Melville 215 (11-A ) Burnt Hills 195
4 Holy Names 225 (02-B ) Pearl River 213
5 Honeoye Falls-Lima 227 (05-B ) East Aurora 227
6 Pearl River 230 (01-B ) Shenendehowa 239
7 Bronxville 240 (01-C ) Ward Melville 254
8 Shenendehowa 241 (02-A ) Sachem East 261
9 Rush-Henrietta 255 (05-A ) North Rockland 262
10 East Aurora 260 (06-B ) Penfield 272
11 Sachem East 281 (11-A ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 272
12 Suffern 282 (01-A ) Rush-Henrietta 280
13 Penfield 290 (05-A ) St. Anthony's 280
14 Northport 311 (11-A ) Holy Names 293
15 St. Anthonys 320 (CHSAA) Northport 312
16 North Rockland 330 (01-A ) Cicero-North Syracuse 362
17 Cicero-North Syracuse 370 (03-A ) Suffern 381
18 Benjamin Cardozo 514 (PSAL ) Notre Dame Academy 430
19 Notre Dame 542 (CHSAA) Benjamin Cardozo 455
20 Port Richmond 550 (PSAL ) Port Richmond 497
21 Sacred Heart 559 (CHSAA) St. John Villa 554
22 St. John Villa 594 (CHSAA) Kellenberg Memorial 581
23 Kellenberg 605 (CHSAA) Sacred Heart Academy 599
24 Curtis 615 (PSAL ) Curtis 675
25 Hackley 687 (AIS ) Hackley School 724
26 Townsend Harris 738 (PSAL ) Townsend Harris 744
27 Immaculata-Buffalo 847 (CHSAA) Immaculata-Buffalo 811
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Pre-Race Analysis ... The race is missing some good NY teams (such as Fayetteville-Manlius, North Shore, Greenwich and Canadaigua). Saratoga is the overwhelming favorite with Burnt Hills second ... A bunch of teams are fairly close for the third-position (depends on which team has a good day). Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) and Laura Leff (West Genesee) are co-favorites for this race ... Laura Leff finished 3rd at last year's Feds and Mary Cain finished 14th, but Mary Cain is definitely improved this season (and unbeaten) ... Alexis Panisse (Benjamin Cardozo) is one of the best-ever XC runners from the PSAL ...Gianna Frontera (Newburgh) has been consistently good all season ... Rachel Paul (Sachem East) is very good runner ... I don't think Lizzie Predmore (Shen) liked the muddy conditions at States. The list below shows the top-rated runners entering Feds. |
Mary Cain 10 01-C Bronxville 147 145 144 151 145 146 142 144 144 Laura Leff 10 03-A West Genesee 147 143 146 148 136 147 149 Alexis Panisse 12 PSA Benjamin Cardozo 140 140 142 138 140 119 126 Rachel Paul 12 11-A Sachem East 140 133 141 139 140 140 144 Gianna Frontera 10 09-A Newburgh 139 140 140 137 137 137 130 135 131 141 125 Lizzie Predmore 12 02-A Shenendehowa 137 116 137 141 142 131 138 Lauren Mullins 12 04-B Johnson City 135 132 141 135 126 120 121 121 Taylor Driscoll 11 02-A Saratoga 135 117 140 134 131 134 Katie Lembo 10 05-A Penfield 135 130 136 134 135 130 129 135 130 134 Keelin Hollowood 11 02-A Saratoga 134 133 137 123 131 129 Estela Smith 9 02-A Saratoga 132 133 130 130 134 129 Leila Mantilla 12 05-A Penfield 131 129 130 130 127 131 135 133 132 131 Alicia Clark 12 02-C Granville 129 124 130 128 130 131 125 94 Talia Guevara 10 11-B Miller Place 127 129 126 127 126 124 105 102 Kate Zendell 9 01-A Suffern 127 115 127 133 128 124 122 117 119 Caroline O'Hea 12 11-A Ward Melville 127 127 127 122 130 121 115 Ariana Bottalico 11 01-B Brewster 127 127 123 126 131 124 125 127 122 125 114 Meredith Rizzo 11 01-C Bronxville 126 124 126 128 126 125 116 122 114 Hannah Cole 11 05-B Honeoye FL 126 129 123 118 121 119 113 Leah Triller 10 02-B Holy Names 126 111 135 118 126 120 119 118 124 119 Stephanie Gerland 8 08-B Garden City 126 111 129 121 128 131 126 Brigid Brennan 10 11-A Northport 126 122 129 110 123 123 124 125 118 Autumn Albrecht 9 05-A Brockport 125 124 129 122 117 112 113 115 Maddie Zeitz 11 04-C Windsor 125 118 120 125 128 126 130 125 119 Maryanna Lansing 8 02-A Shaker 124 115 127 127 127 117 121 125 120 120 Jennifer Gerland 9 08-B Garden City 124 115 127 121 126 126 125 Liz Valento 12 05-D Pavilion 124 124 117 128 121 121 105 Tiana Guevara 10 11-B Miller Place 124 123 124 127 121 118 107 107 Courtney Williams 8 11-A Ward Melville 124 127 122 116 113 101 Kelly Hayes 10 01-B Pearl River 124 124 119 129 119 119 120 113 114 82 Valerie Palermo 11 05-A Webster Schroeder 124 126 122 120 120 111 120 Lauren Reyda 9 06-C Fredonia 124 121 124 124 123 120 123 126 118 118 Amanda Paratore 10 05-A Webster Schroeder 123 118 127 120 119 120 124 118 Marta McLaughlin 10 06-B East Aurora 123 124 119 121 124 126 120 118 119 Ursula Svoboda 11 01-A Suffern 123 120 119 111 131 128 120 126 Molly Shine 12 01-B Pearl River 123 98 128 125 129 122 113 127 118 104 Alyssa Drapeau 12 02-B Burnt Hills 123 121 124 124 121 121 110 106 |