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|Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2011|
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 26, 2011
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 22, 2011 ......|
Actual Scores added Nov 28, 2011 ....
|NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races.|
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]
NY GIRLS TEAMS NY BOYS TEAMS SCHOOL CLUB NAME SCHOOL CLUB NAME Burnt Hills Burnt Hills TC Arlington Arlington TC Canandaigua Canandaigua RC Bishop Gibbons-Notre Dame Knightrunners RC East Aurora East Aurora TC Burnt Hills Burnt Hills Deluge XC Fayetteville-Manlius Manlius XC Chaminade Flyers XC Club Garden City Garden City RC East Aurora East Aurora TC Greenwich Greenwich Witches Fayetteville-Manlius Manlius XC Hilton Hilton XC Club Hackley HXC Track Club Holy Names Academy Of The Holy Names TC Hilton Hilton XC Club Honeoye Falls-Lima HFL Cougars XC Honeoye Falls-Lima HFL Cougars XC Maple Grove Bemus Point TC Irondequoit ITown XC Club North Shore North Shore Running Club Monsignor Farrell Fidelis NYC Pearl River Pearl River Running Lady Northport Northport TC Queensbury Adirondack Runners Rush-Henrietta Comets XC Club Rush-Henrietta Comets XC Club Sachem East Sachem RC Sachem East Sachem Spiked Shoe Club Shaker Shaker T+F Club Saratoga Kinetic RC St. Anthony's Assisi XC Club Suffern Suffern TC Walt Whitman South Huntington RC Ward Melville Ward Melville TC Warwick Valley Warwick TC Westhill-Ludden Syracuse TC Xavier Xavier TC ** Bronxville - not racing full team ???????? Warriors XC
|Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 82 (03-A ) Shaker 78 2 Shaker 116 (02-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 93 3 Rush-Henrietta 119 (05-A ) Rush-Henrietta 114 4 Arlington 155 (01-A ) St. Anthony's 122 5 East Aurora 165 (06-B ) Monsignor Farrell 148 6 Monsignor Farrell 180 (CHSAA) Arlington 162 7 St. Anthony's 185 (CHSAA) East Aurora 182 8 Chaminade 220 (CHSAA) Warwick Valley 205 9 Warwick Valley 225 (09-A ) Walt Whitman 243 10 Walt Whitman 226 (11-A ) Burnt Hills 262 11 Honeoye Falls-Lima 296 (05-B ) Irondequoit 278 12 Burnt Hills 309 (02-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 314 13 Bishop Gibbons 324 (02-B ) Bishop Gibbons 351 14 Northport 329 (11-A ) Northport 358 15 Irondequoit 363 (05-A ) Xavier 358 16 Xavier 364 (CHSAA) Sachem East 382 17 Sachem East 389 (11-A ) Hackley 520 18 Hilton 450 (05-A ) 19 Hackley 577 (AIS )
Pre-Race Analysis: ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite to win ...
Fayetteville-Manlius won the NY State Class A race by only one point
over Rush-Henrietta over the soft-muddy course at
Vernon-Verona-Sherrill high school (Shaker and Arlington
were a relatively close 3rd and 4th at States) ... At States,
Fayetteville-Manlius had an uncharacteristic gap of 48 seconds
between their #4 and #5 scorers (by comparison, that gap was only one
second at the VVS Invitational, 6 seconds at the Manhattan Invite, and 7
seconds at sectionals) ... a typical Fayetteville-Manlius
performance makes them the morning-line favorite.
Fayetteville-Manlius and Rush-Henrietta both skipped the Federation Meet ... the "off" week may help both teams since the State Meet course was what I considered a "tiring" course (many exhausted runners in the finish area after each race) ... In contrast, the teams that raced at Federations may have advantage of "a race over the course" which is usually helpful.
Shaker and Rush-Henrietta seem really close for the second auto-qualifying spot ... I can see either team finishing second ... Entering this race, I give a slight advantage to Shaker because I thought they raced very decently at Federations ... Shaker has been rounding back to form in recent races, and the good performance at Bowdoin last Saturday seems to be a good sign.
Rush-Henrietta has had a really good season and proven (to me) they are a legitimate contender for an NXN qualifying spot whether they finish 2nd or 3rd (same with Shaker).
Hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th have really good performances in relation to the NXN-Northeast race which goes off an hour and 10 minutes earlier at Bowdoin Park ... A good comparison will help their consideration for At-Large selection.
|Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 31 (03-A) Fayetteville-Manlius 43 2 Saratoga 96 (02-A) Saratoga 57 3 North Shore 97 (08-B) North Shore 87 4 Canandaigua 195 (05-A) Canandaigua 170 5 Burnt Hills 199 (02-B) Holy Names 206 6 Greenwich 201 (02-C) Greenwich 219 7 Ward Melville 233 (11-A) Burnt Hills 220 8 Pearl River 250 (01-B) East Aurora 241 9 East Aurora 270 (06-B) Ward Melville 276 10 Holy Names 272 (02-B) Honeoye Falls-Lima 285 11 Sachem East 286 (11-A) Rush-Henrietta 306 12 Garden City 290 (08-B) Maple Grove 317 13 Honeoye Falls-Lima 290 (05-B) Garden City 327 14 Rush-Henrietta 299 (05-A) Queensbury 332 15 Queensbury 344 (02-B) Pearl River 339 16 Maple Grove 345 (06-D) Westhill-Ludden 361 17 Westhill-Ludden 377 (03-B) Suffern 364 18 Suffern 390 (01-A) 19 Hilton 410 (05-A)
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win (no surprise)
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals) ... Despite losing two top runners to
injury (Christie Rutledge and Heather Martin), FM is still
"at-another-level" compared to other teams nationally.
North Shore, Canadaigua and Greenwich also skipped Federations to prepare for this race.
Saratoga and North Shore are a "toss-up" to finish second and collect the second auto-qualifying invitation to NXN Nationals ... I believe it is safe to assume that whoever finishes 3rd will get an At-Large selection to NXN Nationals (barring a really awful performance).
Saratoga had what I consider an "off-race" at States (their respective speed ratings were relatively low) ... This is my opinion: I classify Saratoga as a "speed team" in general ... the slow muddy course at States (with long grass, slippery grass, different kinds of mud, real hills that are slippery, and overall tiring conditions) was very bad for most "speed teams" ... and Saratoga's speed suffered as a result at States ... When handicapping that type of race in horse racing, I simply "throw-the-race-out" unless the conditions repeat ... As expected, Saratoga rebounded at Bowdoin Park where they typically run well.
Several people have asked about "mudders" and why is Saratoga good at NXN Portland Meadows in December and not good in the mud at States?? ... The brief answer is "All mud is not created equal ... Plus, courses are different ... Portland Meadows is flat (ignore the man-made mole-hills) ... Flat courses are an advantage to speed teams whether the course is muddy or not ... Speed teams generally struggle on muddy hills - this is re-occurring observation in high school cross country when you take time to watch ... Saratoga doesn't have to struggle on muddy hills at Portland Meadows because there aren't any, and the mud at Portland Meadows has a "west-coast consistency" that NY teams love along with the wonderfully temperate temperatures of Portland Meadows in December.
Back to this race ... Canadaigua, Burnt Hills and Greenwich are in an even-up battle for the important 4th-place team ... Burnt Hills finished 3rd at Federation, but was missing one of their top runners (Dani Martino) ... Bronxville finished 2nd at Federation, but I have been informed that Bronxville will only be running Mary Cain at NXN-NY.
3rd and 4th place team finishes are eligible for at-large selection to NXN Nationals ... The NY girls have a great reputation and demonstrated ability to compete well at NXN Nationals by their at-large selected teams, so finishing 3rd and 4th in this regional qualifying race is important.
A little info about girl's NXN at-large selections ... (1) in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, the top finishing at-large team has always come from NY ... (2) when two NY teams were selected at-large in 2008 and 2009, the top two finishing at-large teams at NXN were the NY teams ... and (3) all of the NY at-large teams (2006-2010) have finished in the top half of the field ... When I suggested that NY should automatically get two at-larges bids, I had a reason ... I knew it would annoy people outside NY, and that calls attention to the fact the NY at-large selections have dominated at NXN ... Another little tidbit: - excluding Saugus CA, since 2005, no California team (auto-qualifier or at-large) has ever beaten a NY at-large team ... IF at-large selection means picking the teams that will perform best at NXN Portland Meadows, then the NY teams should get the benefit-of-the-doubt every time until they prove otherwise.