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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2011

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 26, 2011

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 22, 2011 ......

Actual Scores added Nov 28, 2011 ....

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races.

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

            NY GIRLS TEAMS                                                  NY BOYS TEAMS

   SCHOOL                  CLUB NAME                                SCHOOL                     CLUB NAME
   Burnt Hills             Burnt Hills TC                           Arlington                  Arlington TC
   Canandaigua             Canandaigua RC                           Bishop Gibbons-Notre Dame  Knightrunners RC
   East Aurora             East Aurora TC                           Burnt Hills                Burnt Hills Deluge XC
   Fayetteville-Manlius    Manlius XC                               Chaminade                  Flyers XC Club
   Garden City             Garden City RC                           East Aurora                East Aurora TC
   Greenwich               Greenwich Witches                        Fayetteville-Manlius       Manlius XC
   Hilton                  Hilton XC Club                           Hackley                    HXC Track Club
   Holy Names              Academy Of The Holy Names TC             Hilton                     Hilton XC Club
   Honeoye Falls-Lima      HFL Cougars XC                           Honeoye Falls-Lima         HFL Cougars XC
   Maple Grove             Bemus Point TC                           Irondequoit                ITown XC Club
   North Shore             North Shore Running Club                 Monsignor Farrell          Fidelis NYC
   Pearl River             Pearl River Running Lady                 Northport                  Northport TC
   Queensbury              Adirondack Runners                       Rush-Henrietta             Comets XC Club
   Rush-Henrietta          Comets XC Club                           Sachem East                Sachem RC
   Sachem East             Sachem Spiked Shoe Club                  Shaker                     Shaker T+F Club
   Saratoga                Kinetic RC                               St. Anthony's              Assisi XC Club
   Suffern                 Suffern TC                               Walt Whitman               South Huntington RC
   Ward Melville           Ward Melville TC                         Warwick Valley             Warwick TC
   Westhill-Ludden         Syracuse TC                              Xavier                     Xavier TC
   ** Bronxville - not racing full team                             ????????                   Warriors XC	


 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius      82    (03-A )     Shaker                     78
 2   Shaker                   116    (02-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       93
 3   Rush-Henrietta           119    (05-A )     Rush-Henrietta            114
 4   Arlington                155    (01-A )     St. Anthony's             122
 5   East Aurora              165    (06-B )     Monsignor Farrell         148
 6   Monsignor Farrell        180    (CHSAA)     Arlington                 162
 7   St. Anthony's            185    (CHSAA)     East Aurora               182
 8   Chaminade                220    (CHSAA)     Warwick Valley            205
 9   Warwick Valley           225    (09-A )     Walt Whitman              243
 10  Walt Whitman             226    (11-A )     Burnt Hills               262
 11  Honeoye Falls-Lima       296    (05-B )     Irondequoit               278
 12  Burnt Hills              309    (02-B )     Honeoye Falls-Lima        314
 13  Bishop Gibbons           324    (02-B )     Bishop Gibbons            351
 14  Northport                329    (11-A )     Northport                 358
 15  Irondequoit              363    (05-A )     Xavier                    358
 16  Xavier                   364    (CHSAA)     Sachem East               382
 17  Sachem East              389    (11-A )     Hackley                   520
 18  Hilton                   450    (05-A )
 19  Hackley                  577    (AIS  )

Pre-Race Analysis: ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite to win ... Fayetteville-Manlius won the NY State Class A race by only one point over Rush-Henrietta over the soft-muddy course at Vernon-Verona-Sherrill high school (Shaker and Arlington were a relatively close 3rd and 4th at States) ... At States, Fayetteville-Manlius had an uncharacteristic gap of 48 seconds between their #4 and #5 scorers (by comparison, that gap was only one second at the VVS Invitational, 6 seconds at the Manhattan Invite, and 7 seconds at sectionals) ... a typical Fayetteville-Manlius performance makes them the morning-line favorite.

Fayetteville-Manlius and Rush-Henrietta both skipped the Federation Meet ... the "off" week may help both teams since the State Meet course was what I considered a "tiring" course (many exhausted runners in the finish area after each race) ... In contrast, the teams that raced at Federations may have advantage of "a race over the course" which is usually helpful.

Shaker and Rush-Henrietta seem really close for the second auto-qualifying spot ... I can see either team finishing second ... Entering this race, I give a slight advantage to Shaker because I thought they raced very decently at Federations ... Shaker has been rounding back to form in recent races, and the good performance at Bowdoin last Saturday seems to be a good sign.

Rush-Henrietta has had a really good season and proven (to me) they are a legitimate contender for an NXN qualifying spot whether they finish 2nd or 3rd (same with Shaker).

Hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th have really good performances in relation to the NXN-Northeast race which goes off an hour and 10 minutes earlier at Bowdoin Park ... A good comparison will help their consideration for At-Large selection.




 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     31     (03-A)      Fayetteville-Manlius       43
 2   Saratoga                 96     (02-A)      Saratoga                   57
 3   North Shore              97     (08-B)      North Shore                87
 4   Canandaigua             195     (05-A)      Canandaigua               170
 5   Burnt Hills             199     (02-B)      Holy Names                206
 6   Greenwich               201     (02-C)      Greenwich                 219
 7   Ward Melville           233     (11-A)      Burnt Hills               220
 8   Pearl River             250     (01-B)      East Aurora               241
 9   East Aurora             270     (06-B)      Ward Melville             276
 10  Holy Names              272     (02-B)      Honeoye Falls-Lima        285
 11  Sachem East             286     (11-A)      Rush-Henrietta            306
 12  Garden City             290     (08-B)      Maple Grove               317
 13  Honeoye Falls-Lima      290     (05-B)      Garden City               327
 14  Rush-Henrietta          299     (05-A)      Queensbury                332
 15  Queensbury              344     (02-B)      Pearl River               339
 16  Maple Grove             345     (06-D)      Westhill-Ludden           361
 17  Westhill-Ludden         377     (03-B)      Suffern                   364
 18  Suffern                 390     (01-A)
 19  Hilton                  410     (05-A)
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win (no surprise) ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race (and NXN Nationals) ... Despite losing two top runners to injury (Christie Rutledge and Heather Martin), FM is still "at-another-level" compared to other teams nationally.

North Shore, Canadaigua and Greenwich also skipped Federations to prepare for this race.

Saratoga and North Shore are a "toss-up" to finish second and collect the second auto-qualifying invitation to NXN Nationals ... I believe it is safe to assume that whoever finishes 3rd will get an At-Large selection to NXN Nationals (barring a really awful performance).

Saratoga had what I consider an "off-race" at States (their respective speed ratings were relatively low) ... This is my opinion: I classify Saratoga as a "speed team" in general ... the slow muddy course at States (with long grass, slippery grass, different kinds of mud, real hills that are slippery, and overall tiring conditions) was very bad for most "speed teams" ... and Saratoga's speed suffered as a result at States ... When handicapping that type of race in horse racing, I simply "throw-the-race-out" unless the conditions repeat ... As expected, Saratoga rebounded at Bowdoin Park where they typically run well.

Several people have asked about "mudders" and why is Saratoga good at NXN Portland Meadows in December and not good in the mud at States?? ... The brief answer is "All mud is not created equal ... Plus, courses are different ... Portland Meadows is flat (ignore the man-made mole-hills) ... Flat courses are an advantage to speed teams whether the course is muddy or not ... Speed teams generally struggle on muddy hills - this is re-occurring observation in high school cross country when you take time to watch ... Saratoga doesn't have to struggle on muddy hills at Portland Meadows because there aren't any, and the mud at Portland Meadows has a "west-coast consistency" that NY teams love along with the wonderfully temperate temperatures of Portland Meadows in December.

Back to this race ...  Canadaigua, Burnt Hills and Greenwich are in an even-up battle for the important 4th-place team ... Burnt Hills finished 3rd at Federation, but was missing one of their top runners (Dani Martino) ... Bronxville finished 2nd at Federation, but I have been informed that Bronxville will only be running Mary Cain at NXN-NY.

3rd and 4th place team finishes are eligible for at-large selection to NXN Nationals ... The NY girls have a great reputation and demonstrated ability to compete well at NXN Nationals by their at-large selected teams, so finishing 3rd and 4th in this regional qualifying race is important.

A little info about girl's NXN at-large selections ... (1) in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, the top finishing at-large team has always come from NY ... (2) when two NY teams were selected at-large in 2008 and 2009, the top two finishing at-large teams at NXN were the NY teams ... and (3) all of the NY at-large teams (2006-2010) have finished in the top half of the field ... When I suggested that NY should automatically get two at-larges bids, I had a reason ... I knew it would annoy people outside NY, and that calls attention to the fact the NY at-large selections have dominated at NXN ... Another little tidbit: - excluding Saugus CA, since 2005, no California team (auto-qualifier or at-large) has ever beaten a NY at-large team ... IF at-large selection means picking the teams that will perform best at NXN Portland Meadows, then the NY teams should get the benefit-of-the-doubt every time until they prove otherwise.