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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2011 - Projections & Preview 2011

 

Please remember: the projected scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Projected Scores were posted on November 9, 2011 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet.

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

ACTUAL Scores  added on Nov 13, 2011 ...

[ Girls projections ]

 

 Boys Class A  -  Fayetteville-Manlius favored
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      52        Fayetteville-Manlius   63 
  2   Shaker               (02)      73        Rush-Henrietta         64 
  3   Rush-Henrietta       (05)      84        Shaker                 81 
  4   Arlington            (01)     105        Arlington              84 
  5   Walt Whitman         (11)     127        Warwick Valley        100  
  6   Warwick Valley       (09)     139        Walt Whitman          166 
  7   Port Washington      (08)     175        Ithaca                167 
  8   Ithaca               (04)     181        Clarence              204 
  9   Clarence             (06)     211        Port Washington       234 

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite in Class A ... FM beat Rush-Henrietta and Shaker head-to-head at the Manhattan Eastern States Championship and finished ahead of Walt Whitman in the Manhattan merge (Walt Whitman ran very well at Manhattan) ... CBA-New Jersey is the only team that has beaten FM this season (in the Eastern States Champ race), and currently, I have CBA-New Jersey rated as the top team in the nation (only slightly ahead of a group of teams that include FM).

Shaker has had some ups-and-downs this season (injuries to top runners the apparent cause) ... Shaker has come back nicely with good performances at County Champ, Suburban Council Champ and sectionals ... States will be a good test, and I expect Shaker to do well ... Shaker was highly ranked nationally at the beginning of the season, and could climb in the rankings with a good performance.

Rush-Henrietta has raced well all season and can certainly challenge the top teams with a season-best performance ... Arlington is not far behind and may have something to say about the final outcome ... Overall, this a talented field of Class A teams.

Individual Race ... Nick Ryan (FM) had one of those "special" performances at sectionals ... He separated himself from his teammates (and others) and won the Class A race by a remarkable 43 seconds over teammate Matt Deyo who was the second fastest runner at sectionals ... at Manhattan, Nick Ryan (5th in the Eastern States race) was only 5 seconds ahead of Matt Deyo ... There is a reason his speed rating was very high.

The list below shows the top-rated Class A runners ... A bunch of guys are very close, and this could be a real good scramble for the top five places.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Nick Ryan             11   03-A    FM                     195
2   Ryan Colabella        12   11-A    Hauppauge              185
3   Michael Turi          12   01-A    John Jay EF            185
4   Matt Deyo             12   03-A    FM                     184
5   Mike Libruk           12   02-A    Shaker                 183
6   Eric Holt             11   01-A    Carmel                 183
7   Kris Moran            11   11-A    North Babylon          182
8   Jon Vallecorsa        12   02-A    Shaker                 181
9   Nate Kozyra           12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         181
10  Sebastion Hanson      11   01-A    Arlington              180
11  Paddy Grandinali      12   09-A    Warwick                180
12  Brian Crimmins        12   04-A    Horseheads             179
13  Mickey Burke          10   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         179
14  Eddie Merenda         12   01-A    Arlington              179
15  Alec Peinkofer        11   03-A    Baldwinsville          178
16  Andrew Sweeney        12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         177
17  Zachary Cammer        11   11-A    Walt Whitman           177
18  Bryce Millar          9    03-A    FM                     177
19  Ryan Scarpelli        12   11-A    Sachem East            176
20  Travis Jordon         12   05-A    Gates Chili            176
21  Christian Delago      12   02-A    Shaker                 176
22  Kevin French          12   01-A    John Jay EF            175
23  Colin Fitzgibbons     11   03-A    FM                     175
24  Ian Tolan             12   04-A    Binghamton             175
25  Michael Damato        11   11-A    Walt Whitman           175
26  Taylor Titcomb        12   08-A    Port Washington        174
27  Ari Lewenstein        12   04-A    Ithaca                 174
28  Grant Parrelli        11   09-A    Warwick                174
29  Conor Farrell         11   03-A    FM                     174
30  Evan Ward             12   01-A    Suffern                174   

 

 Boys Class B  -  East Aurora a slight favorite in close contest ....
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      81        East Aurora            52
  2   Pearl River          (01)      84(120)   Honeoye Falls-Lima     84
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)     101        Franklin Academy      113
  4   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)     105        Burnt Hills           118
  5   Maine-Endwell        (04)     115        Marcellus             125
  6   Franklin Academy     (10)     118        Shoreham Wading Riv   131
  7   Marcellus            (03)     131        Maine-Endwell         136
  8   Shoreham-Wading Riv  (11)     142        Pearl River           160
  9   New Paltz            (09)     215        New Paltz             194
  10  Garden City          (08)     269        Garden City           252
  11  Beekmantown          (07)     287        Beekmantown           332

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is one of those races where knowing who is running makes a big difference ... One of the top Pearl River guys did not race at sectionals (Brian Edsall, due to injury) and Pearl River did not win by that much over some good rivals ... In this Class B race, with him (running effectively) East Aurora and Pearl River are virtually even-up at the top spot ... without him, Pearl River could drop as low as 6th because this race is a good match-up of teams with relatively even talent (Just noticed Brian Edsall is entered in the official entry list (http://www.leonetiming.com/entries.htm).

The top six teams (maybe seven) all have scenarios that could move them well up or down in the final results ... For example, top performances by Maine-Endwell or Franklin Academy (Malone) have the potential to win this race depending on how the other teams perform overall (and that's unusual for a NY State Class race).

Individual Race ... Dan Lennon (Peru) is undefeated this season and enters this race as the favorite after an excellent performance at sectionals ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) has had an excellent season (his only loss coming at McQuaid to an out-of-State runner ... at McQuaid, he beat Ryan Manahan (Marcellus)) ... This is another good competitive race for top five spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Dan Lennon            12   07-B    Peru                   186
2   TJ Hornberger         10   06-B    Lake Shore             182
3   Ryan Manahan          11   03-B    Marcellus              181
4   Justin Maguire        12   01-B    Brewster               180
5   Cooper Roach          12   05-B    Honeoye FL             180
6   Taylor Love           12   01-B    Rye                    179
7   Mike Anvelt           12   05-B    Pittsford Suth         179
8   Buddy Herkenham       12   02-B    Burnt Hills            179
9   Jason Lange           11   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         177
10  John Lee              12   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R      177
11  Stephen Bourguet      11   08-B    Manhasset              176
12  Austin Coneys         12   11-B    Harborfields           175
13  Matt Lange            11   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         175
14  Sean Phillips         11   06-B    East Aurora            174
15  Elliott Martynkiewicz 12   06-B    East Aurora            174
16  Jordan Pantalone      11   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         174
17  Adam Murphy           11   06-B    Amherst                174
18  Joe Dinan             11   01-B    Tappan Zee             174
19  Nathan Kotch          12   01-B    Tappan Zee             174
20  Connor Gordon         11   10-B    Franklin Acad          173
21  Marc Violone          12   01-B    Byram Hills            173
22  Adam Lafemina         11   11-B    Bayport-BluePt         172
23  Nate Smith            12   06-B    Pioneer                172 

 

 Boys Class C  -  Four Teams in the Hunt - Holland Patent the morning-line favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent       (03)      86        Holland Patent         74
  2   Pawling              (01)      90        Pawling                76
  3   Rhinebeck            (09)      96        Fonda-Fultonville      79
  4   Fonda Fultonville    (02)      99        Rhinebeck              94
  5   Port Jefferson       (11)     123        Port Jefferson        116
  6   Alden                (06)     128        Alden                 133
  7   Wayland-Cohocton     (05)     177        Watkins Glen          170
  8   Watkins Glen         (04)     185        Friends Academy       198
  9   Saranac              (07)     204        Wayland-Cohocton      206
  10  Friends Academy      (08)     209        Saranac               225
  11  Gouverneur           (10)     261        Gouverneur            295
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Four teams appear very close in the Class C race (Holland Patent, Fonda-Fultonville, Rhinebeck and Pawling) ... Holland Patent becomes the slight morning-line favorite due to their excellent performance at sectionals, and they are from Section Three.

Individual Race ... Brendan Smith (CBA-Syracuse) and Cameron Bruce (Lansing) are evenly-rated at the top of the Class C list with Austin Lane (Greenwich) very close ... Sam Anderson (South Lewis), Frankie Pfeil (Roy-Hart), Jeremy Rushok (Akron) and Brendan Wortner (Dobbs Ferry) look very competitive.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Brendan Smith         12   03-C    CBA-Syracuse           183
2   Cameron Bruce         12   04-C    Lansing                183
3   Austin Lane           12   02-C    Greenwich              181
4   Sam Anderson          12   03-C    South Lewis            178
5   Frankie Pfeil         12   06-C    Roy-Hart               177
6   Jeremy Rushok         12   06-C    Akron                  176
7   Brendan Wortner       12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            176
8   Tom Higgins           12   01-C    Westlake               172
9   Johnny Marvin         12   09-C    Rhinebeck              171
10  Dayton Flannery       12   01-C    Bronxville             171
11  Stephen Shine         11   01-C    Briarcliff             170
12  Cole Conte            12   11-C    Port Jefferson         169
13  Ben Griffin           12   03-C    Hannibal               169
14  Cody McCarthy         11   03-C    Solvay                 168
15  Seth Bulich           12   02-C    Catskill               167
16  Michael Scott         12   02-C    Fonda Fultonvill       167
17  John Flannery         10   01-C    Bronxville             167
18  Matt Hoffman          11   02-C    Fonda Fultonvill       167
19  Jeremy Spiezio        9    02-C    Greenwich              167
20  Matt Jorgensen        11   01-C    Pawling                166
21  Nick Tyler            11   03-C    South Jefferson        166
22  Jim Bernstein         12   09-C    Tri-Valley             166 

 

 Boys Class D  -  Barker the morning-line favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Barker               (06)      53        Barker                 43
  2   Berne-Knox-Westerlo  (02)      65        Berne-Knox-Westerlo    60
  3   Beaver River         (03)      77        Beaver River           69
  4   Geneseo              (05)     100        Geneseo                91
  5   Seton Catholic       (07)     127        Seton Plattsburgh     138
  6   Spencer VanEtten     (04)     145        SS Seward             178
  7   SS Seward            (09)     181        Spencer Van Etten     193
  8   Haldane              (01)     221        Tupper Lake           212
  9   Tupper Lake          (10)     242        Haldane               224
  10  Southold             (11)     276        Southold              261
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Barker is the morning-line favorite, but Berne-Knox-Westerlo and Beaver River are in contention for the win.


Individual Race ...  The top five guys in the list below could have real good contest to determine the Class D individual winner.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Gabe Rodriguez        11   05-D    Geneseo                177
2   Jeff Antolos          11   05-D    Notre Dame-Batavia     176
3   Logan Kempney         12   03-D    Beaver River           175
4   Alex Campanella       11   09-D    Eldred                 174
5   Corey Wefing          10   06-D    Maple Grove            171
6   Derek Struck          12   02-D    Berne-Knox             168
7   Sean Reynolds         12   02-D    Berne-Knox             167
8   Devon Rodriguez       12   05-D    Geneseo                166
9   Hunter Proscia        12   09-D    Eldred                 164
10  Tyler Scheving        12   06-D    Barker                 164
11  Seth Baker            11   03-D    Weedsport              163
12  Thomas Sargent        12   03-D    LaFayette              163
13  Jacob Urys            11   02-D    Mekeel Christian       161
14  Mike Lantinen         12   06-D    Barker                 159
15  Jon Pearl             11   05-D    Campbell-Savona        159
16  Connor Devine         12   02-D    Berne-Knox             157
17  Mitchell Ryan         11   07-D    Seton Catholic         157
18  Brett Ryan            11   03-D    Cato Meridian          157
19  Jedediah Platt        12   06-D    Barker                 156
20  Barrett Waling        12   07-D    Seton Catholic         155 

 

 

 Girls Class A  -  FM looking very strong with Saratoga second again
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      22        Fayetteville-Manlius   15
  2   Saratoga             (02)      49        Saratoga Springs       70
  3   Canandaigua          (05)      98        Canandaigua           102
  4   Ward Melville        (11)     132        Ward Melville         102
  5   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     164        North Rockland        135
  6   North Rockland       (01)     169        Monroe-Woodbury       169
  7   Ithaca               (04)     171        Ithaca                177
  8   Clarence             (06)     175        Clarence              179
  9   Massapequa           (08)     208        Massapequa            241
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top-ranked team in the nation (again) and the odds-on favorite to win this race over Saratoga (the #2 team in the nation).

Fayetteville-Manlius will be missing two top runners due to injury (Christie Rutledge and Heather Martin), but the remarkable depth of FM was apparent at sectionals.

Saratoga is currently ranked #2 in the nation ... Saratoga had a season-best performance at sectionals which strengths their position at #2 to FM.

Individual Race ... Jillian Fanning (FM) has been an impressive winner this season (including her win at Manhattan Eastern States) ... Jillian Fanning enters the Class A race as the favorite ... Laura Leff (West Genesee) ran with Fanning much of the race at sectionals before Fanning pulled away at the end; Laura Leff is very good on the VVS course (she was only 4 seconds slower than Fanning at the VVS Invite), so this race might be competitive.

A group of girls look very competitive for the third-spot ... Gianna Frontera (Newburgh) is undefeated this season with a number of very nice performances and might be surprisingly good ... Rachel Paul (Sachem East), Lizzie Predmore (Shen), Katie Sischo (FM), Taylor Driscoll (Saratoga) and Meghan McCormick (Canadaigua) appear very competitive ... Annika Avery (FM) ran decently at sectionals despite being sick.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Jillian Fanning       11   03-A    FM                     154
2   Laura Leff            10   03-A    West Genesee           148
3   Christy Rutledge      12   03-A    FM                     144 (not running)
4   Rachel Paul           12   11-A    Sachem East            141
5   Lizzie Predmore       12   02-A    Shenendehowa           140
6   Katie Sischo          12   03-A    FM                     140
7   Gianna Frontera       10   09-A    Newburgh               139
8   Taylor Driscoll       11   02-A    Saratoga               137
9   Annika Avery          9    03-A    FM                     137
10  Meghan McCormick      12   05-A    Canandaigua            137
11  Katie Lembo           10   05-A    Penfield               135
12  Keelin Hollowood      11   02-A    Saratoga               134
13  Hannah Smith          11   03-A    FM                     134
14  Holly Cavalluzzo      11   09-A    Valley Central         134
15  Jenna Farrell         8    03-A    FM                     134
16  Estela Smith          9    02-A    Saratoga               132
17  Leila Mantilla        12   05-A    Penfield               131
18  Alana Pearl           10   03-A    FM                     131
19  Heather Martin        12   03-A    FM                     131 (not running)
20  Kennedy Jensen        10   05-A    Canandaigua            130
21  Katie Brislin         11   03-A    FM                     130
22  Kate Zendell          9    01-A    Suffern                129
23  Kathleen McCormick    12   05-A    Canandaigua            128
24  Caroline O'Hea        12   11-A    Ward Melville          127
25  Maryanna Lansing      8    02-A    Shaker                 126
26  Brigid Brennan        10   11-A    Northport              125
27  Ursula Svoboda        11   01-A    Suffern                125
28  Autumn Albrecht       9    05-A    Brockport              125
29  Katie Treichel        12   02-A    Saratoga               125 

 

 Girls Class B  -  North Shore the favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   North Shore          (08)      45        North Shore            33
  2   Burnt Hills          (02)      66        Burnt Hills            82
  3   Pearl River          (01)      96        Honeoye Falls-Lima     99
  4   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)     112        East Aurora           104
  5   East Aurora          (06)     128        Pearl River           122
  6   Cornwall             (09)     168        Canton                140
  7   Westhill-Ludden      (03)     179        Westhill-Ludden       183
  8   Canton               (10)     213        Bayport-Bluepoint     196
  9   Bayport-Blue Pt      (11)     230        Cornwall              219
  10  Peru                 (07)     239        Johnson City          240
  11  Johnson City         (04)     255        Peru                  310
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... North Shore is one of top-ranked teams in the nation (typically ranked in the top 4 to 8 teams recently) ... North Shore is very strong at their top four positions as can be seen in the individual runner list below ... However, their team score rises because the other Class B teams here are very good and capable of inserting many runners in between North Shore's #4 and #5 runners.

Burnt Hills, Pearl River and Honeoye Falls-Lima and East Aurora are good competitive teams.

Individual Race ... Samantha Nadel and Brianna Nerud should be considered co-favorites in the Class B race ... Lauren Mullins (Johnson City) is a two-time Footlocker Finalist; she missed most of outdoor track due to injury and was unable to resume running until August; she has improved steadily throughout the XC season and had a season-best performance at sectionals.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Samantha Nadel        12   08-B    North Shore            150
2   Brianna Nerud         12   08-B    North Shore            149
3   Lauren Mullins        12   04-B    Johnson City           136
4   Jessica Donohue       11   08-B    North Shore            132
5   Elizabeth Caldwell    11   08-B    North Shore            131
6   Leah Triller          10   02-B    Holy Names             129
7   Stephanie Gerland     8    08-B    Garden City            128
8   Ariana Bottalico      11   01-B    Brewster               127
9   Molly Shine           12   01-B    Pearl River            127
10  Talia Guevara         10   11-B    Miller Place           126
11  Jennifer Gerland      9    08-B    Garden City            126
12  Dani Martino          10   02-B    Burnt Hills            125
13  Megan Young           11   01-B    Nanuet                 124
14  Tiana Guevara         10   11-B    Miller Place           124
15  Kelly Hayes           10   01-B    Pearl River            124
16  Laura Pierce          10   10-B    Canton                 123
17  Jolie Navatka         12   02-B    Queensbury             123
18  Alyssa Drapeau        12   02-B    Burnt Hills            123
19  Jessica Curry         12   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        123
20  Marta McLaughlin      10   06-B    East Aurora            123
21  Allison Hallock       12   05-B    Pittsford Mend         122
22  Hannah Cole           11   05-B    Honeoye FL             122
23  Rachel Garn           10   03-B    Marcellus              120
24  Livia Chase           10   06-B    Starpoint              120
25  Mary Welsh            11   08-B    Manhasset              120
26  Jenny Delsignore      11   06-B    Sweet Home             119
27  Meagan Roecker        11   02-B    Burnt Hills            119
28  Catherine Maloy       11   02-B    Holy Names             119
29  Ceili McMorrow        12   01-B    Pearl River            118
30  Jacqueline Willsey    11   02-B    Holy Names             118 

 

 Girls Class C  -  Greenwich a slight favorite over Bronxville
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      47        Bronxville             43
  2   Bronxville           (01)      52        Greenwich              46
  3   Tully                (03)     105        Tully                 110
  4   Wayland Cohocton     (05)     106        Wayland-Cohocton      110
  5   Fredonia             (06)     140        Newark Valley         139
  6   Newark Valley        (04)     143        Fredonia              141
  7   Friends Academy      (08)     150        Friends Academy       177
  8   Tri-Valley           (09)     159        Center Moriches       180
  9   Center Moriches      (11)     203        Tri-Valley            181
  10  Saranac              (07)     274        Saranac               275
  11  Ogdensburg           (10)     287        Ogdensburg            309
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the defending Class C champion ... Bronxville beat Greenwich by 3 points last year ... In some ways, this race looks like a repeat of last year where Greenwich was favored by 5 points.

Repeating from last year's projections ... The purpose of the projected scores is provide a "morning-line" (horse race analogy) or "seed times" (track & field analogy) based on performance to date ... and overall performance to date makes Greenwich the favorite ... The projected scores are weighted compromise ... in virtually all race simulations, performance at the #3 through #5 positions is the major factor in determining the winner of this race.

Recent performance makes Tully and Wayland-Cohocton virtually even-up.

Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) is the favorite with Kelsey Margey (Friends Academy) a close second  ... Several girls look very competitive for the third-spot.

 

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Mary Cain             10   01-C    Bronxville             148
2   Kelsey Margey         12   08-C    Friends Acad           144
3   Victoria Houser       11   02-C    Greenwich              132
4   Alicia Clark          12   02-C    Granville              130
5   Meredith Rizzo        11   01-C    Bronxville             127
6   Maddie Zeitz          11   04-C    Windsor                127
7   Madeline Montague     11   02-C    Greenwich              124
8   Lauren Reyda          9    06-C    Fredonia               124
9   Natalie Tanner        11   01-C    Rye Neck               122
10  Victoria Campanian    11   03-C    South Lewis            121
11  Jenna Cupp            11   04-C    Newark Valley          121
12  Emily Waligurski      11   09-C    Onteora                121
13  Sarah Lapham          10   02-C    Greenwich              119
14  Tori Spiezio          8    02-C    Greenwich              114
15  Sarah King            12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            113
16  Nicole Gianetti       10   08-C    Oyster Bay             113
17  Sarah Ziemba          10   06-C    Newfane                112
18  Christina Firl        11   10-C    Potsdam                110
19  Nicole Bubie          12   05-C    Greece Odyssey         110
20  Victoria Hathaway     11   02-C    Stillwater             110
21  Kirsten Holmberg      10   06-C    Falconer               108
22  Shannon Murphy        12   06-C    Falconer               108
23  Megan Pierce          10   03-C    CBA                    108
24  Katherine Ward        12   03-C    Tully                  107
25  Madeline Adams        10   03-C    Skaneateles            107
26  Meghan Curtin         8    05-C    Wayland Cohocton       106
27  Kimberly Geniti       10   02-C    Fonda-Ful              106
28  Christina Platt       8    03-C    South Lewis            106
29  Autumn Bender         8    09-C    Tri-Valley             105
30  Hannah Groshner       12   05-C    Wayland Cohocton       104 

 

 Girls Class D  -  Maple Grove a solid favorite
 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      32        Maple Grove            30
  2   Beaver River         (03)      84        Beaver River           71
  3   Geneseo              (05)      87        Geneseo                95
  4   Berne-Knox-Westerlo  (02)     108        Berne-Knox-Westerlo   107
  5   Seton Catholic       (07)     118        Seton Plattsburgh     138
  6   Delhi                (04)     152        Delhi                 146
  7   John A. Coleman      (09)     171        Southold              195
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     176        Norwood-Norfolk       202
  9   Southold             (11)     238        John A. Coleman       209
  10  Alexander Hamilton   (01)     269        Alexander Hamilton    261

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Maple Grove is the odds-on favorite to win ... Geneseo and Beaver River are virtually even-up for the second-spot with Berne-Knox-Westerlo in contention.

Individual Race ... Liz Valento (Pavilion) is the morning-line favorite ... Hope Pietrocarlo (Maple Grove), Erin McConnell (Fabius-Pompey), Megan Marsh (Maple Grove) and Courtney Tedeschi (Berne-Knox) are in contention.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Liz Valento           12   05-D    Pavilion               124
2   Hope Pietrocarlo      8    06-D    Maple Grove            120
3   Erin McConnell        11   03-D    Fabius-Pompey          119
4   Megan Marsh           8    06-D    Maple Grove            116
5   Courtney Tedeschi     11   02-D    Berne-Knox-West        115
6   Holly Eliason         10   06-D    Sherman                111
7   Margaret Champagne    8    07-D    Seton Catholic         109
8   Megan Erickson        11   02-D    North Warren           108
9   Samantha Sauer        11   04-D    Thomas Edison          108
10  Elizabeth Jewiss      11   04-D    Marathon               107
11  Sage Hurta            8    03-D    Hamilton               105
12  Sarah Coon            12   05-D    Red Jacket             104
13  Caroline Benson       10   06-D    Maple Grove            103
14  Elizabeth Dean        11   03-D    MPH                    101
15  Kaycie Saucier        8    10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        99
16  Aubrie Russell        12   04-D    Candor                 98
17  Karlee Duffer         12   03-D    Beaver River           97
18  Anna Warner           9    05-D    Notre Dame-Bat         97
19  Jordan Weir           12   03-D    Cato Meridian          96
20  Miranda Drummond      10   04-D    Harpursville           96
21  Gabby Thompson        10   03-D    Watertown IHC          96
22  Katelyn Benson        12   06-D    Maple Grove            95