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Pre-Season XC 2011
GIRLS Teams - National 2011
Bill Meylan (August 9, 2011)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2010 XC season into 2011 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 25 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 25 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2011 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ...
|National GIRLS Teams|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2011 School State Score NXN Region -------------------- ----- ----- ---------- 1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 60 New York 2 Saratoga NY 190 New York 3 Tatnall DE 260 Southeast 3 Saugus CA 260 California 3 North Shore NY 260 New York 3 La Costa Canyon CA 260 California 7 Carmel IN 300 Midwest 7 Fort Collins CO 300 Southwest 9 Great Oak CA 325 California 10 Wheaton-Warrenville S IL 330 Midwest 11 Green Hope NC 355 Southeast 12 Foothill CA 375 California 13 Redondo Union CA 390 California 14 New Tier IL 415 Midwest 14 Granada CA 415 California 14 Ogden UT 415 Southwest 14 Campolindo CA 415 California 14 Glacier Peak WA 415 Northwest 19 Burnt Hills NY 420 New York 20 Pennsbury PA 425 Northeast 21 Prospect IL 435 Midwest 22 Simi Valley CA 445 California 23 Bozeman MT 460 Northwest 23 Southlake Carroll TX 460 South 25 Voorhees NJ 470 Northeast 25 Kingwood TX 470 South 25 The Woodlands TX 470 South 25 Xavier Prep AZ 470 Southwest 25 Woodbridge CA 470 California The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled somewhat: Torrey Pines CA California Canandaigua NY New York Champlain Valley VT Northeast Barrington IL Midwest Palatine IL Midwest Bronxville NY New York Estero FL Southeast East Aurora NY New York Dowling Catholic IA Heartland La Salle Academy RI Northeast Columbus North IN Midwest Glenbard West IL Midwest Midlothian VA Southeast Colonial Forge VA Southeast Tesoro CA California Eden Prairie MN Heartland Mountain View ID Northwest York IL Midwest Summit OR Northwest Northport NY New York Crater OR Northwest Cicero-North Syracuse NY New York Cypress Fairbanks TX South North Rockland NY New York Bishop Feehan MA Northeast Maggie L. Walker VA Southeast Guilderland NY New York Corona Del Mar CA California W Chester Henderson PA Northeast Vista Murrieta CA California Chiles FL Southeast College Park TX South *** I may have missed a team or two going through my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2010 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to and wanted to) ... Computer simulations require a decent sequential list of speed ratings for each runner - I have that for the NY and most CA runners, but others are a bit scarce at times (but so what, this is pre-season).
FM returns five of their top six runners (including their top
four) ... Plus FM returns other good runners (with perhaps some
notable XC improvements forthcoming) ... Add in some good new
runners and ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on pre-season
favorite to win NXN once again.
Saratoga ... Saratoga has excellent depth and talent ... As noted in my NY preview, I'm not certain of the status of some runners, but I expect Saratoga will field a team capable of making the podium at NXN (once again).
Overall, there is not much that separates Tatnall, Saugus, La Costa Canyon and North Shore in a Pre-season "Morning-Line" type of scoring which this exercise is ... Therefore, I see them as even-up entering the season ... That will change as real 2011 results become available.
Tatnall ... Tatnall typically fields a very strong team that races well at NXN ... they return several good runners including top runner Haley Pierce who beat Aisling Cuffe at the Penn Relays 3000 meter race.
Saugus ... Saugus lost some good runners to graduation, but the team is very deep ... some good outdoor track results plus proven ability at California XC caused me to raise the team to this pre-season status ... I believe in "Been There, Done That" as a handicapping factor in conjunction with proven performances.
North Shore and La Costa Canyon are similar in one respect ... Both teams have a strong top four ... and their placement at the national level could depend on the performance at the #5 position.
Fort Collins always seems to race better at NXN than I predict ... Somebody other than NY teams likes Portland Meadows.
I have a fair number of California teams in the top 25 above ... Obviously, I made a mistake (or not) ... But this is the pre-season and much of my "rating" of the California teams is based on what they accomplished in California, and I feel reasonably comfortable with my California ratings of past seasons ... I do not (and never have) used NXN Portland Meadows ratings to "back-calculate" California ratings based on performance at Portland Meadows ... California-based racing and Portland Meadows in December are two different animals and must be rated accordingly.
I really thought about placing FM, Saratoga and North Shore at 1-2-3 separately ... But I do not want to jinx them.