[TullyRunners Home Page]
Pre-Season XC 2011
BOYS Teams - National 2011
Bill Meylan (August 11, 2011)
|Boys - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2010 XC season into 2011 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2011 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ...
Updated Aug 27, 2011 ... Palatine IL added (was mistakenly not included before) ... WW Plainsboro NJ now 16th (previously used a graduate)
|National BOYS Teams|
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2011 NXN School State Score Region ------------------ ----- ----- ------ 1 Southlake Carroll TX 270 South 2 Palos Verdes CA 275 California 3 Arcadia CA 280 California 4 Shaker NY 285 New York 5 Rancho Cucamonga CA 290 California 6 Fort Collins CO 300 Southwest 6 Christian Brothers NJ 300 Northeast 8 Columbus North IN 325 Midwest 9 The Woodlands TX 335 South 10 Buchanan CA 340 California 11 St. John Bosco CA 350 California 12 Palatine IL 360 Midwest *** Added *** 12 Belvidere (North) IL 360 Midwest 14 Rush-Henrietta NY 375 New York 15 Golden Valley CA 390 California 16 WW Plainsboro So NJ 390 Northeast 17 Arrowhead WI 395 Heartland 18 Davis UT 400 Southwest 19 Loyola CA 405 California 20 North Central WA 410 Northwest 20 York IL 410 Midwest 20 Neuqua Valley IL 410 Midwest 23 Crater OR 415 Northwest 24 Adolfo Camarillo CA 430 California 25 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 435 New York 26 North Harrison IN 440 Midwest 26 La Costa Canyon CA 440 California 28 Cabdell Midland WV 445 Southeast 29 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 465 Southeast 29 Wayzata MN 465 Heartland 31 Dowling Catholic IA 475 Heartland 31 West Torrance CA 475 California 31 Hamilton Southeastern IN 475 Midwest 31 Great Oak CA 475 California The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled ... some could be above as well Eisenhower WA Northwest Naperville (North) IL Midwest Mountain View UT Southwest Gig Harbor WA Northwest Arlington NY New York Brookwood GA Southeast North Allegheny PA Northeast Mountain Brook AL Southeast Albemarle VA Southeast South Bend St Joseph IN Midwest Seattle Prep WA Northwest Bozeman MT Northwest Bismarck ND Heartland Jesuit OR Northwest Kamiakin WA Northwest Colonial FL Southeast Sioux Falls Roosevelt SD Heartland Salesianum DE Southeast St. Anthonys NY New York Mountain Vista CO Southwest Desert Vista AZ Southwest Joel Ferris WA Northwest
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally less accurate and harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate making the following season less predictable due to lack of information.
The boy's list above probably identifies many of the top teams entering the 2011 XC season ... and much of the order is a guess (to a large extent).
A bunch of teams appear to be serious contenders to win NXN Portland Meadows ... and Shaker NY is one of them.
Southlake Carroll TX and Palos Verdes CA seem very close, but I gave Southlake Carroll the edge due to past experience at NXN ... Arcadia CA won last year (and graduated some top runners), but appear capable of challenging again this season with no overwhelming favorite in site (at this this time).
I suspect much of the list order will change a lot when the season actually starts.