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Pre-Season XC 2011

BOYS Teams - National 2011

Bill Meylan (August 11, 2011)

Boys - Potential National Contenders

My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.

Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).

For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2010 XC season into 2011 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).

My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.

Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2011 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ...

Updated Aug 27, 2011 ... Palatine IL added (was mistakenly not included before) ... WW Plainsboro NJ now 16th (previously used a graduate)


 National BOYS Teams

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2011

      School               State   Score    Region
      ------------------   -----   -----    ------
  1   Southlake Carroll      TX     270     South
  2   Palos Verdes           CA     275     California
  3   Arcadia                CA     280     California
  4   Shaker                 NY     285     New York
  5   Rancho Cucamonga       CA     290     California
  6   Fort Collins           CO     300     Southwest
  6   Christian Brothers     NJ     300     Northeast
  8   Columbus North         IN     325     Midwest
  9   The Woodlands          TX     335     South
  10  Buchanan               CA     340     California
  11  St. John Bosco         CA     350     California
  12  Palatine               IL     360     Midwest      *** Added ***
  12  Belvidere (North)      IL     360     Midwest
  14  Rush-Henrietta         NY     375     New York
  15  Golden Valley          CA     390     California
  16  WW Plainsboro So       NJ     390     Northeast
  17  Arrowhead              WI     395     Heartland
  18  Davis                  UT     400     Southwest
  19  Loyola                 CA     405     California
  20  North Central          WA     410     Northwest
  20  York                   IL     410     Midwest
  20  Neuqua Valley          IL     410     Midwest
  23  Crater                 OR     415     Northwest
  24  Adolfo Camarillo       CA     430     California
  25  Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     435     New York
  26  North Harrison         IN     440     Midwest
  26  La Costa Canyon        CA     440     California
  28  Cabdell Midland        WV     445     Southeast
  29  Belen Jesuit Prep      FL     465     Southeast
  29  Wayzata                MN     465     Heartland
  31  Dowling Catholic       IA     475     Heartland
  31  West Torrance          CA     475     California
  31  Hamilton Southeastern  IN     475     Midwest
  31  Great Oak              CA     475     California

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order 
      could be shuffled ... some could be above as well

      Eisenhower             WA      Northwest
      Naperville (North)     IL      Midwest
      Mountain View          UT      Southwest
      Gig Harbor             WA      Northwest
      Arlington              NY      New York
      Brookwood              GA      Southeast
      North Allegheny        PA      Northeast
      Mountain Brook         AL      Southeast
      Albemarle              VA      Southeast
      South Bend St Joseph   IN      Midwest
      Seattle Prep           WA      Northwest
      Bozeman                MT      Northwest
      Bismarck               ND      Heartland
      Jesuit                 OR      Northwest
      Kamiakin               WA      Northwest
      Colonial               FL      Southeast
      Sioux Falls Roosevelt  SD      Heartland
      Salesianum             DE      Southeast
      St. Anthonys           NY      New York
      Mountain Vista         CO      Southwest
      Desert Vista           AZ      Southwest
      Joel Ferris            WA      Northwest

Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally less accurate and harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate making the following season less predictable due to lack of information.

The boy's list above probably identifies many of the top teams entering the 2011 XC season ... and much of the order is a guess (to a large extent).

A bunch of teams appear to be serious contenders to win NXN Portland Meadows ... and Shaker NY is one of them.

Southlake Carroll TX and Palos Verdes CA seem very close, but I gave Southlake Carroll the edge due to past experience at NXN ... Arcadia CA won last year (and graduated some top runners), but appear capable of challenging again this season with no overwhelming favorite in site (at this this time).

I suspect much of the list order will change a lot when the season actually starts.