Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     32           FM                     31
  2   West Genesee           51           West Genesee           68
  3   Baldwinsville          82           CNS                    80
  4   CNS                    90           Baldwinsville         101
  5   Liverpool             125           Liverpool             131
  6   Auburn                163           Auburn                179
  7   Central Square        194           Central Square        206
  8   Rome                  240           Rome                  217
  9   Corcoran              262           Corcoran              243
  10  Nottingham            276           Nottingham            299
  11  Oswego                322           Oswego                315
  12  Proctor               366           Proctor               324
			

Post Race Comment ... Team projections were reasonably good ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) won handily as expeced.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is currently the 3rd-ranked Class AA team in NY State, West Genesee is 16th-ranked, Baldwinsville is 20th-ranked and CNS is 23rd-ranked ... West Genesee rested runners during the CNYCL Championship race (and is actually better than the 16th-place ranking in NY Class AA (a decent race at sectionals should get West Genesee a bid to the NY Federation race).

Individual Race ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) missed the early part of the season with a broken foot, but is rounding into form nicely based on his winning performance at CNYCL ... Chris Buchanan (CNS) has had an excellent season and should be a serious challenger for the win ... The FM trio of Mark McGurrin, Andrew Roache, and Nick Ryan should be a contention as well.
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      33 (50)      Westhill               54
  2   Watertown              60           Jamesville-Dewitt      56
  3   ESM                    70           Whitesboro             75
  4   Whitesboro             86           Watertown              90
  5   Westhill               99           ESM                    95
  6   Fulton                164           Fulton                151
  7   Carthage              197           Camden                186
  8   Camden                216

Post Race Comment ... Biggest upset of the day ... Westhill ran their best race of season to edge JD.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the choice to win ... BUT - the score above includes Danny Driscoll (JD) who has not raced since McQuaid (in an invitational or OHSL) ... without him, the JD score is roughly 50 (as noted in the parentheses) above which could bring Watertown and ESM into contention due to the limited number of teams in Class A ... JD finished 4th with a good race at OHSL (more than 100 points ahead of ESM).

Individual Race ... Mike Coogan (ESM) the solid favorite ... Austin Davis (JD) and Danny Driscoll (if he races) are the next highest-ranked followed by Watertown's Dennis Caughlin and Steven Donato.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Marcellus              37           Marcellus              35 
  2   Hannibal               78           Hannibal               91 
  3   New Hartford          124           New Hartford          105 
  4   South Jefferson       153           Solvay                150 
  5   Mexico                165           Homer                 164 
  6   Solvay                171           South Jefferson       171 
  7   Chittenango           186           Mexico                172 
  8   Homer                 204           Chittenango           182 
  9   Oneida                225           Skaneateles           242 
  10  Skaneateles           265           Oneida                287 
  11  VVS                   289           VVS                   296 
  12  Cortland              290           Cortland              317 
  13  Cazenovia             315           Cazenovia             318 
  14  Phoenix               336           Phoenix               319 

Post Race Comment ... Team projections were reasonably good ... Marcellus won easily as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Marcellus is a solid favorite in the Class B race (Marcellus won the OHSL Meet convincingly on a muddy course at Jamesville Beach).

Individual Race ... Ryan Manahan (Marcellus, winner of the OHSL Meet) and Jesse Garn (Marcellus) are the top-ranked runners in Class B ... Aaron Tompkins (New Hartford) is not far behind and is expected to qualify for States (top five runners not on the winning team qualify).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent         34           Holland Patent         33
  2   Jordan-Elbridge        70           Jordan-Elbridge        93
  3   Tully                 115           Sauquoit Valley       108
  3   Sauquoit Valley       115           Tully                 116
  5   South Lewis           170           South Lewis           150
  6   Sherburne-Earl        195           Sherburne-Earl        175
  7   Pulaski               210           Clinton               226
  8   Ilion                 218           Pulaski               238
  9   APW                   243           Ilion                 240
  10  Hamilton              246           Hamilton              251
  11  Cato Meridian         252           APW                   277
  12  Clinton               261           Cato-Meridian         278
  13  Little Falls          331           Little Falls          313
  14  Herkimer              376           Herkimer              353
  15  Canastota             427           Westmoreland          422
  16  Westmoreland          474

Post Race Comment ... Projections were good ...

Pre-Race Analysis ... Holland Patent is currently the #1 ranked Class C team in NY State (Jordan-Elbridge is #7).

Tully and Sauquoit Valley appear evenly-matched for the 3rd-place spot.

Individual Race ... Dylan Racha (Holland Patent) and Cody Racha (Holland Patent) are the top-ranked Class C runners in both Section 3 and NY State ... Brendan Smith (CBA) is not far behind and should qualify for States ... Greg Bader (JE), Thomas Arcuri (Sauquoit Valley) and Sam Anderson (South Lewis) are also strong contenders for State-qualifying spots along with several other runners (such as Alex Mirra (Tully)).
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           51           Beaver River           43
  2   LaFayette              87           Cooperstown            89
  3   Fabius-Pompey          96           Onondaga              107
  4   Cooperstown           100           LaFayette             110
  4   Onondaga              100           Fabius-Pompey         117
  6   Weedsport             164           Oriskany              161
  7   Oriskany              192           Weedsport             179
  8   Sandy Creek           216           Sandy Creek           205
  9   Port Byron            231           Port Byron            237
  10  Utica Notre Dame      267           Utica Notre Dame      240
  11  Poland                314           Poland                282
  12  New York Mills        332           New York Mills        344
  13  West Canada           357

Post Race Comment ... Beaver River performed as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River enters the Class "D" race as the favorite once again (they are the #2 ranked Class D team in the State) ... Like last year, Beaver River is the Frontier League champion and they just won their division at the Adirondack Invitational ...

LaFayette and Fabius-Pompey are projected to finish 2nd and 3rd respectively (LaFayette finished 8th at OHSL and Fabius-Pompey finished 13th) ... Onondaga was only 2 points behind Fabius-Pompey at OHSL ... a top Onondaga runner (Zach Fenner) has not raced since McQuaid; his inclusion at that performance level could project Onondaga to finish 2nd.

Individual Race ... Matt Cheney (Beaver River) and Logan Kempney (Beaver River) are the top-rated Section 3 runners (Matt Cheney is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and Kempney is 3rd) ... Manlius Pebble Hill's Ian Trepanier is the #4-ranked Class D runner is NY State ... Jake Andrews (Fabius), Will Reis (Cooperstown), Seth Baker (Weedsport), and Tom Sargent (LaFayette) are solid contenders to qualify for States as individuals.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     19           FM                     18
  2   CNS                    72           CNS                    72
  3   Liverpool              89           Liverpool              83
  4   West Genesee          116           West Genesee          118
  5   Baldwinsville         118           Baldwinsville         129
  6   Central Square        153           Central Square        146
  7   Auburn                178           Auburn                202
  8   Corcoran              240           Corcoran              249
  9   Rome                  286           Rome                  275
  10  Nottingham            304           Nottingham            307
  11  Proctor               319           Proctor               317
 
								

Post Race Comment ... Team projections were very good.

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Fayetteville-Manlius girls are the defending National Champions and the #1 ranked team in the nation ... FM scored a perfect 15 the last three years at sectionals  ... It could happen again this year, but Maria Lamontagne (CNS) and Laura Leff (West Genesee) may be capable of breaking up the top five FM runners.

The CNYCL race was interesting ... I half expected the FM girls to do a tempo-run, win handily with little energy expenditure and then run faster at sectionals (I was wrong) ... Coach Bill Aris told me before the race that two top runners (Katie Sischo and Katie Brislin) would be sitting out the race to let other runners have a chance to run varsity (Both Katies were at the race to cheer for the FM runners, sorta in disguise which can seen by clicking here).

At CNYCL, Jillian Fanning and Christie Rutledge went out and raced hard (much to my surprise) ... the Jamesville Beach course was muddy and tiring (the Big East races, the OHSL varsity races and CNYCL boys race preceded the CNYCL girl's race) ... I was at the finish-line area when Fanning and Rutledge went by (starting the final loop to the finish about 400-500 meters away) with a huge lead and they were racing each other! ... They pushed to remarkable times (17:04 and 17:07) that would have placed 15th and 17th in the boy's race (the times were only a minute and a half or less behind the boy's winners (Shaun Thompson and Chris Buchanan) who are elite runners) ... The resulting speed ratings (158.4 and 157.4) were well deserved.

West Genesee Coach Jim Vermeulen decided to rest Laura Leff at CNYCL ... Basically, the same teams at CNYCL come back at sectionals in the Class AA race ... Maria Lamontagne (CNS) did race at CNYCL, but she needed the race to have six races to compete at sectionals ... I thought she raced conservatively.

Individual Race ... FM has a team full of contenders for win ... Clearly Jillian Fanning and Christie Rutledge are the favorites after those CNYCL performances ... I expect Maria Lamontagne (CNS) will race faster at sectionals, but I expect her primary goal is to qualify for States (same for  Laura Leff).

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      47           Jamesville-Dewitt      43
  2   Westhill               65           Westhill               46
  2   Whitesboro             65           Whitesboro             71
  4   ESM                    96           ESM                    90
  5   Watertown             112           Fulton                121
  6   Fulton                140           Camden                164
  7   Camden                197
  
				

Post Race Comment ... Team projections were reasonably good ... but Westhill ran better than expected to make it close.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the favorite (JD finished 3rd at the OHSL Meet while Westhill finished 7th) ... Westhill is actually a combined team of Westhill and Bishop Ludden which places them in Class A ... Whitesboro finished 3rd the TVL League Meet and seems evenly-matched with Westhill.

Individual Race ... Westhill's Jessica Curry and Betsy Black are the top-ranked Class A runners.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Cazenovia              53           Cazenovia              51 
  2   Marcellus              74           Marcellus              89 
  3   Skaneateles            84           Skaneateles            93 
  4   Homer                 128           Homer                 134 
  5   New Hartford          135           Oneida                149 
  6   Oneida                180           Mexico                182 
  7   Chittenango           198           New Hartford          185 
  8   Mexico                215           Chittenango           205 
  9   South Jefferson       244           South Jefferson       235 
  10  Phoenix               256           Phoenix               242 
  11  Solvay                274           VVS                   256 
  12  VVS                   302           Solvay                300 
  13  Hannibal              367           Cortland              339 
  14  Cortland              371
				

Post Race Comment ... Team projections were decent, especially for the top four teams ... As expected, Bori Tozser (Homer) won handily.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Cazenovia was Class C in 2009, but moved up the Class B in 2010 ... Cazenovia finished a very good 2nd at OHSL while Marcellus finished 4th and Skaneateles finished 6th.

Individual Race ... Bori Tozser (Homer) won the OSHL race and is the favorite to win the Class B sectional race ... Rachel Garn (Marcellus) is the 2nd-choice and should qualify for States ... a number of other runners have a good chance at finishing well which includes Morel Malcolm (Skan), Maddy Adams (Skan), Rae Tobey (Caz), Hollie Marcelle (Caz), Jeannette Cudney (Caz), Abbey Gray (Homer), Maggie Dunn (Marcellus) and Rebecca Laporte (New Hartford).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  47           Tully                  51 
  2   Holland Patent         56           Holland Patent         56 
  3   CBA                   108           Sauquoit Valley       105 
  4   Sauquoit Valley       126           South Lewis           152 
  5   Clinton               168           Clinton               155 
  6   Ilion                 173           CBA                   176 
  7   South Lewis           180           Pulaski               201 
  8   Pulaski               195           Jordan-Elbridge       210 
  9   Jordan-Elbridge       221           Ilion                 217 
  10  Adirondack            298           Adirondack            283 
  11  APW                   307           APW                   285 
  12  Canastota             311           Canastota             298 
  13  Sherburne-Earl        389           Sherburne-Earl        341 
  14  Westmoreland          398           Westmoreland          353 
  15  Herkimer              415

							

Post Race Comment ... Tully edged Holland Patent in a good contest ... Leah Rice (Holland Patent) won impressively with a career-best performance.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is currently ranked #3 in NY State (Class C) and Holland Patent is ranked #4 ... Tully has won the Section 3 Class C title the last three years.

Tully's advantage is depth at the #4 through #7 runners ... Tully won the OHSL Championship race with a decent performance, but a similar performance at sectionals could give Holland Patent a winning opportunity ... Holland Patent has been improving and has a real chance to challenge for the win.

Individual Race ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski), Tori Campanian (South Lewis) and Leah Rice (Holland Patent) are the top-ranked Class C runners expected to contend for the win ... Behind are a group of runners that includes Katherine Ward (Tully), Ashley Evans (Tully), Cheyenne Petrillo-Lavier (Holland Patent), Erica Freund (Clinton), Rachel Zajdel (CBA), Marietta Burt (Tully), Susan Pritchard (Sauquoit), and Jennifer MacMillan (Holland Patent).

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           49           Remsen                 35 
  1   Fabius-Pompey          49           Fabius-Pompey          41 
  1   Remsen                 49           Beaver River           58 
  4   LaFayette             119           Cooperstown           132 
  5   Weedsport             145           Weedsport             146 
  6   Cooperstown           160           Utica Notre Dame      149 
  7   Sandy Creek           184           LaFayette             171 
  8   Utica Notre Dame      196           Sandy Creek           217 
  9   Old Forge             255           Poland                232 
  10  Poland                257           Waterville            274 
  11  Waterville            269
				

Post Race Comment ... Remsen duplicated (and surpassed) their CSC Conference Championship win to take the sectional title with a very good team performance.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This could be the closest race of the day ... Some inconsistencies amongst the contending teams makes this difficult to predict with any accuracy, so I opted for a spread and decided to call it even .... Most scenarios place Beaver River and Fabius-Pompey slightly ahead of Remsen with Beaver River and Fabius-Pompey evenly-matched ... Remsen won the CSC Conference Championship and a similar (or slightly improved) performance could be enough to claim the Class D title ... Should be a good contest.

Individual Race ... The individual race also looks close ... The favorites (top-ranked) are Sage Hurta (Hamilton), Erin McConnell (Fabius), Karlee Duffer (Beaver River), Taylor Parry (Bishop Grimes) and Deidre Beller (Beaver River).