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|Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2010|
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 27, 2010
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 24, 2010 ......|
Actual Score Added November 28, 2010 ...
|NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races.|
Entries & Other Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]
NY Boys NY Girls Club Names School Club Names School Knightrunner Bishop Gibbons Burnt Hills Burnt Hills Burnt Hills Burnt Hills Canandaigua Canandaigua Flyers XC Cl Chaminade East Aurora East Aurora East Aurora East Aurora Manlius XC FM Manlius XC FM Fairport Tra Fairport Blue Devil C Geneseo Honeoye Fall Honeoye Falls Runnin Cadet Hilton Bemus Point Maple Grove Honeoye Fall Honeoye Falls Lady Raiders North Rockland Finger Lakes Ithaca North Shore North Shore Bemus Point Maple Grove Pearl River Pearl River Running Rebe McQuaid Pelican XC Pelham Monsignor Fa Monsignor Farrell Synergy XC Pittsford Mendon Pelican XC Pelham Adirondack R Queensbury Synergy XC Pittsford Mendon Kinetic RC Saratoga Knights XC Pittsford Sutherland Clifton Park Shenendehowa Adirondack R Queensbury Comet TC Rush-Henrietta Shaker Track Shaker Clifton Park Shenendehowa Tuskers Somers Warwick TC Warwick Valley
|Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Shaker the favorite - FM & Warwick even-up|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Shaker 60 (02-AA) Fayetteville-Manlius 45 2 Fayetteville-Manlius 95 (03-AA) Shaker 59 3 Warwick Valley 95 (09-AA) Rush-Henrietta 76 4 Rush-Henrietta 115 (05-AA) Warwick Vallet 92 5 Burnt Hills 190 (02-A ) East Aurora 193 6 Chaminade 230 (CHSAA) Geneseo 205 7 Ithaca 230 (04-AA) Burnt Hills 216 8 Shenendehowa 230 (02-AA) Ithaca 241 9 East Aurora 245 (06-B ) Queensbury 275 10 Geneseo 270 (05-D ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 287 11 Pittsford Sutherland 270 (05-A ) Pittsford-Sutherland 301 12 McQuaid 315 (05-A ) Monsignor Farrell 329 13 Queensbury 315 (02-A ) Pittsford-Menodn 341 14 Monsignor Farrell 320 (CHSAA) Somers 377 15 Hilton 350 (05-AA) Bishop Gibbons 377 16 Pittsford Mendon 380 (05-A ) Hilton 388 17 Somers 390 (01-A ) Shenedehowa 433 18 Bishop Gibbons 400 (02-B ) Great Neck South 440 19 Honeoye Falls-Lima 400 (05-A ) 20 Maple Grove 550 (06-D )
Pre-Race Analysis: ...
Shaker is the clear favorite ... Shaker is the NY State
Class AA and Federation Champion.
Fayetteville-Manlius, Warwick Valley and Rush-Henrietta skipped Federations after losing to Shaker at States ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Warwick Valley seem evenly-matched, so the team that has the best race will likely finish second ... Rush-Henrietta is not that far behind, and a season-best performance could grab the second auto-qualifying bid to NXN Nationals.
|Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite, Saratoga 2nd|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 28 (03-AA) Fayetteville-Manlius 28 2 Saratoga 70 (02-AA) Saratoga 73 3T North Shore 160 (08-A ) North Shore 110 3T Queensbury 160 (02-A ) East Aurora 124 3T Burnt Hills 160 (02-A ) Burnt Hills 177 3T Shenendehowa 160 (02-AA) Queensbury 184 3T East Aurora 160 (06-B ) Pittsford Mendon 189 8 North Rockland 210 (01-AA) North Rockland 193 9 Pittsford Mendon 210 (05-A ) Canandaigua 197 10 Fairport 240 (05-AA) Honeoye Falls-Lima 241 11 Pearl River 240 (01-B ) Fairport 274 12 Honeoye Falls-Lima 250 (05-A ) Maple Grove 276 13 Canandaigua 260 (05-A ) Shenendehowa 281 14 Maple Grove 340 (06-D ) 15 Pelham 470 (01-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the solid favorite to win (no surprise)
... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals).
Saratoga is a very solid favorite to finish second and collect the second auto-qualifying invitation to NXN Nationals.
Five teams are in the hunt to finish either 3rd or 4th ... North Shore, Queensbury, Burnt Hills, Shenendehowa and East Aurora ... Queensbury finished slightly ahead of North Shore and East Aurora at Federations ... Burnt Hills and Shenendehowa did not compete at Feds.
Shenedehowa's score above assumes a good race by top runner Lizzie Predmore ... Predmore was scratched from the NY State Meet the night before (supposedly due to a stress fracture) .. so it's a guess as to her status and ability to run effectively, but she is in the entry list.
Burnt Hills beat Queensbury at sectionals and then had unfortunate racing mishaps at States ... about 300 meters into the State race, Meagan Roecker fell hard and was stepped on while she was on the ground and lost her shoe; five Burnt Hills girls behind her basically piled into her (or came to a standstill), and that was just the start.
North Shore is on the improve at the top end after some early season physical problems (Samantha Nadel and Brianna Nerud) ... a solid race at the #5 position could definitely result in a 3rd-place finish.
3rd and 4th place team finishes are eligible for at-large selection to NXN Nationals ... The NY girls have a great reputation and demonstrated ability to compete well at NXN Nationals by their at-large selected teams, so finishing 3rd and 4th in this regional qualifying race is important .... These finishing places will likely be determined by the #4 and #5 finishers on each team.