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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2010

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 27, 2010

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 24, 2010 ......

Actual Score Added November 28, 2010 ...

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races.

Entries & Other Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

NY Boys                                              NY Girls 
 Club Names         School                            Club Names         School
 Knightrunner       Bishop Gibbons                    Burnt Hills        Burnt Hills
 Burnt Hills        Burnt Hills                       Canandaigua        Canandaigua
 Flyers XC Cl       Chaminade                         East Aurora        East Aurora
 East Aurora        East Aurora                       Manlius XC         FM
 Manlius XC         FM                                Fairport Tra       Fairport
 Blue Devil C       Geneseo                           Honeoye Fall       Honeoye Falls
 Runnin Cadet       Hilton                            Bemus Point        Maple Grove
 Honeoye Fall       Honeoye Falls                     Lady Raiders       North Rockland
 Finger Lakes       Ithaca                            North Shore        North Shore
 Bemus Point        Maple Grove                       Pearl River        Pearl River
 Running Rebe       McQuaid                           Pelican XC         Pelham
 Monsignor Fa       Monsignor Farrell                 Synergy XC         Pittsford Mendon
 Pelican XC         Pelham                            Adirondack R       Queensbury
 Synergy XC         Pittsford Mendon                  Kinetic RC         Saratoga
 Knights XC         Pittsford Sutherland              Clifton Park       Shenendehowa
 Adirondack R       Queensbury
 Comet TC           Rush-Henrietta
 Shaker Track       Shaker
 Clifton Park       Shenendehowa
 Tuskers            Somers
 Warwick TC         Warwick Valley		


 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Shaker the favorite - FM & Warwick even-up

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Shaker                    60    (02-AA)     Fayetteville-Manlius        45 
 2   Fayetteville-Manlius      95    (03-AA)     Shaker                      59 
 3   Warwick Valley            95    (09-AA)     Rush-Henrietta              76 
 4   Rush-Henrietta           115    (05-AA)     Warwick Vallet              92 
 5   Burnt Hills              190    (02-A )     East Aurora                193 
 6   Chaminade                230    (CHSAA)     Geneseo                    205 
 7   Ithaca                   230    (04-AA)     Burnt Hills                216 
 8   Shenendehowa             230    (02-AA)     Ithaca                     241 
 9   East Aurora              245    (06-B )     Queensbury                 275 
 10  Geneseo                  270    (05-D )     Honeoye Falls-Lima         287 
 11  Pittsford Sutherland     270    (05-A )     Pittsford-Sutherland       301 
 12  McQuaid                  315    (05-A )     Monsignor Farrell          329 
 13  Queensbury               315    (02-A )     Pittsford-Menodn           341 
 14  Monsignor Farrell        320    (CHSAA)     Somers                     377 
 15  Hilton                   350    (05-AA)     Bishop Gibbons             377 
 16  Pittsford Mendon         380    (05-A )     Hilton                     388 
 17  Somers                   390    (01-A )     Shenedehowa                433 
 18  Bishop Gibbons           400    (02-B )     Great Neck South           440 
 19  Honeoye Falls-Lima       400    (05-A )
 20  Maple Grove              550    (06-D )

Pre-Race Analysis: ... Shaker is the clear favorite ... Shaker is the NY State Class AA and Federation Champion.

Fayetteville-Manlius, Warwick Valley and Rush-Henrietta skipped Federations after losing to Shaker at States ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Warwick Valley seem evenly-matched, so the team that has the best race will likely finish second ... Rush-Henrietta is not that far behind, and a season-best performance could grab the second auto-qualifying bid to NXN Nationals.




 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite, Saratoga 2nd

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius      28    (03-AA)     Fayetteville-Manlius        28
 2   Saratoga                  70    (02-AA)     Saratoga                    73
 3T  North Shore              160    (08-A )     North Shore                110
 3T  Queensbury               160    (02-A )     East Aurora                124
 3T  Burnt Hills              160    (02-A )     Burnt Hills                177
 3T  Shenendehowa             160    (02-AA)     Queensbury                 184
 3T  East Aurora              160    (06-B )     Pittsford Mendon           189
 8   North Rockland           210    (01-AA)     North Rockland             193
 9   Pittsford Mendon         210    (05-A )     Canandaigua                197
 10  Fairport                 240    (05-AA)     Honeoye Falls-Lima         241
 11  Pearl River              240    (01-B )     Fairport                   274
 12  Honeoye Falls-Lima       250    (05-A )     Maple Grove                276
 13  Canandaigua              260    (05-A )     Shenendehowa               281
 14  Maple Grove              340    (06-D )
 15  Pelham                   470    (01-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the solid favorite to win (no surprise) ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race (and NXN Nationals).

Saratoga is a very solid favorite to finish second and collect the second auto-qualifying invitation to NXN Nationals.

Five teams are in the hunt to finish either 3rd  or 4th ... North Shore, Queensbury, Burnt Hills, Shenendehowa and East Aurora ... Queensbury finished slightly ahead of North Shore and East Aurora at Federations ... Burnt Hills and Shenendehowa did not compete at Feds.

Shenedehowa's score above assumes a good race by top runner Lizzie Predmore ... Predmore was scratched from the NY State Meet the night before (supposedly due to a stress fracture) .. so it's a guess as to her status and ability to run effectively, but she is in the entry list.

Burnt Hills beat Queensbury at sectionals and then had unfortunate racing mishaps at States ... about 300 meters into the State race, Meagan Roecker fell hard and was stepped on while she was on the ground and lost her shoe; five Burnt Hills girls behind her basically piled into her (or came to a standstill), and that was just the start.

North Shore is on the improve at the top end after some early season physical problems (Samantha Nadel and Brianna Nerud) ... a solid race at the #5 position could definitely result in a 3rd-place finish.

3rd and 4th place team finishes are eligible for at-large selection to NXN Nationals ... The NY girls have a great reputation and demonstrated ability to compete well at NXN Nationals by their at-large selected teams, so finishing 3rd and 4th in this regional qualifying race is important .... These finishing places will likely be determined by the #4 and #5 finishers on each team.