Projected Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Shaker (02) 52 Shaker 58
2 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 65 Warwick Valley 78
3 Warwick (09) 75 Fayetteville-Manlius 80
4 Rush-Henrietta (05) 95 Rush-Henrietta 99
5 Connetquot (11) 120 Arlington 126
6 Arlington (01) 145 Ithaca 141
7 Calhoun (08) 150 Connetquot 143
8 Ithaca (04) 155 Calhoun 144
9 Williamsville North (06) 230 Williamsville North 243
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Repeating some of last year's pre-race analysis ... Two major factors
are
significant in determining the outcome of many championship races ... one factor will be determined
by the teams themselves, but the other is out of their control:
.. (1) Placement of the #4 and #5 runners ... this is
always important, but here it is really important in this Class
AA race.
.. (2) Placement of runners Not
on the contending teams ... There are a lot of quality team runners in
this Class AA race, and how they displace runners on the top teams could
be very important.
The speed ratings and computer simulations make Shaker the clear favorite ... Shaker's prime advantage is depth through all seven runners, and that is very important when considering placement of the #4 and #5 runners ... Also, first year runner Christian Delago is emerging as one of the top runners in the State ... Shaker beat FM, Warwick Valley and Rush-Henrietta at the Manhattan Invitational ... Shaker has raced on the Pawling Lakeside course (Green Mountain Invite, and raced decently) while the other three contending teams have not raced there (sometimes that's an advantage, sometimes not) ... All things considered, Shaker is the favorite.
Fayetteville-Manlius
ran only two invitational races (Chittenango and Manhattan) followed by
a three-week break, then OHSL Championships and sectionals ... I believe
FM basically "trained-through" the OHSL race and then ran
sectionals to see where the stood overall ... Both races (at Jamesville
Beach and VVS) were run on courses having significant muddy sections,
and the courses could be considered "tiring" and challenging ... The
Pawling Lakeside course is quite different (in addition, the weather is
expected to be good, so I assume the course will be in decent condition)
... As I said last year - Borrowing
from horse-race handicapping, the sectional race may have been a good "tightener"
for FM (this intangible handicapping factor might give an
advantage to FM and could be considered if pari-mutuel wagering was
allowed
)
... FM matches Shaker at the top-end ... Big races by the
#4 and #5 runners give FM a real shot at winning this race.
Warwick Valley is very good team and a contender ... Warwick was beaten by both Shaker and FM at Manhattan ... One of their top runners (Ian Sullivan) was not in the results from sectionals (don't know why, but I included him in the projections).
Rush-Henrietta ran a bit better earlier in the season and will need to improve on recent performances to contend for the win.
Individual Race ... This could be a really good race ... Alex Saavedra (Sachem East) has popped some outstanding performances at Sunken Meadow (some observers believe I have under-rated those efforts) ... Martin Hehir (Washingtonville) is undefeated this season in invitational and championship races (including wins at Manhattan (Varsity C race), Grout, Carlisle PA, and the Section One Coaches race at Pawling) ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) is coming-on very strong after missing the early season due to a broken foot (won OHSL and sectionals with something reserve); Shaun Thompson a serious challenger for the win ... Section Two's Sam Place (Saratoga) and improving first-year runner Christian Delago (Shaker) are definitely in the mix along with Section Three's Mark McGurrin (FM) and Chris Buchanan (CNS).
Top Ranked Class AA Runners entering the race:
1 Alex Saavedra 12 11-AA Sachem East 192 2 Martin Hehir 12 09-AA Washingtonville 190 3 Sam Place 12 02-AA Saratoga 189 4 Shaun Thompson 12 03-AA Baldwinsville 189 5 Mark McGurrin 12 03-AA FM 186 6 Chris Buchanan 12 03-AA CNS 186 7 Joe DiRienzo 11 11-AA Sachem East 186 8 Christian Delago 11 02-AA Shaker 185 9 Tim Luthin 12 09-AA Warwick 185 10 Nick Ryan 10 03-AA FM 183 11 James Naglieri 12 01-AA North Rockland 183 12 Michael Libruk 11 02-AA Shaker 183 13 Matt Johnson 12 04-AA Ithaca 183 14 Andrew Roache 12 03-AA FM 182 15 Mickey Burke 9 05-AA Rush-Henrietta 182
... (Info from the Utica newspaper) - Remsen’s cross-country team
qualified for the state meet by winning the Section III Class D title at
Vernon-Verona-Sherrill ... after the meet, six runners met their soccer
teammates at a nearby Thruway exit and went to Cortland State to play in
the Section III Class D soccer final that evening ... they defeated
Copenhagen 2-1 in sudden-victory overtime to advance to the state
regional round on the same day as the State XC Championships ... Remsen
(18-1-0) will play Section IV champion Milford at 5:30 p.m. at
Chittenango High School Saturday after driving back from Pawling!!! ...
Remsen's league (CSC Conference) allows athletes to compete in two
sports in the same season.