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Pre-Season XC 2010

GIRLS Teams - National 2010

Bill Meylan (August 3, 2010)

Girls - Potential National Contenders

My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest ... This season I decided to post the list for the first time due to a number of inquiries (normally I limit these public pre-season projections to NY State).

Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank with respect to possible competition at the end of the season ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).

For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).

My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.

Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 25 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 25 scoring teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2010 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ... (Updated August 14, 2010)


 National GIRLS Teams

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2010

   School                State   Score
   --------------------  -----   -----
   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      140
   Saratoga               NY      150
   Saugus                 CA      160
   Mira Costa             CA      280
   Jesuit OR              OR      290
   Queensbury             NY      300
   Tatnall                DE      300
   Great Oak              CA      320
   Cary Green Hope        NC      340
   Boulder                CO      350 **
   Dana Hills             CA      370
   Fort Collins           CO      370
   Xavier Prep            AZ      370
   Redondo Union          CA      370 
   Torrey Pines           CA      370
   Orange Lutheran        CA      370 ***
   East Aurora            NY      380
   Vista Murrieta         CA      390
   Palos Verdes           CA      390
   Bishop Kelly           ID      400
   Buchanan-Clovis        CA      410
   Canyon                 CA      420
   San Clemente           CA      420
   Clairemont             CA      420
   Mountain View          ID      420
   Glacier Peak WA        WA      420
   Monroe-Woodbury        NY      430
   North Rockland         NY      430

      ** =  top runner is injured; score assumes she runs well
      *** = could be losing another runner which would drop them out

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order 
      could be shuffled somewhat:

          Midlothian VA        VA
          LaSalle Academy      RI
          Burnt Hills          NY
          North Shore          NY
          Campolindo           CA
          Warren               CA
          Cathedral Cath       CA
          Carmel               IN
          Canandaigua          NY
          Ward Melville        NY
          Southlake Carroll    TX
          Hidden Valley        VA
          Bronxville           NY
          Chiles               FL
          Bishop Feehan        MA
          Palatine             IL
          Oak Ridge            CA
          Harvard-Westlake     CA
          Clovis North         CA
          Fort Collins         CA
          Oak Park             CA
          Shadle Park          WA
          Elk River            MN

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2009 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Computer simulations require a decent sequential list of speed ratings for each runner - I have that for the NY and most CA runners, but others are a bit scarce at times (but so what, this is pre-season).