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Pre-Season XC 2010
GIRLS Teams - National 2010
Bill Meylan (August 3, 2010)
|Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest ... This season I decided to post the list for the first time due to a number of inquiries (normally I limit these public pre-season projections to NY State).
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank with respect to possible competition at the end of the season ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 25 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 25 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2010 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ... (Updated August 14, 2010)
|National GIRLS Teams|
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2010 School State Score -------------------- ----- ----- Fayetteville-Manlius NY 140 Saratoga NY 150 Saugus CA 160 Mira Costa CA 280 Jesuit OR OR 290 Queensbury NY 300 Tatnall DE 300 Great Oak CA 320 Cary Green Hope NC 340 Boulder CO 350 ** Dana Hills CA 370 Fort Collins CO 370 Xavier Prep AZ 370 Redondo Union CA 370 Torrey Pines CA 370 Orange Lutheran CA 370 *** East Aurora NY 380 Vista Murrieta CA 390 Palos Verdes CA 390 Bishop Kelly ID 400 Buchanan-Clovis CA 410 Canyon CA 420 San Clemente CA 420 Clairemont CA 420 Mountain View ID 420 Glacier Peak WA WA 420 Monroe-Woodbury NY 430 North Rockland NY 430 ** = top runner is injured; score assumes she runs well *** = could be losing another runner which would drop them out The next group is basically in order following the list above ... Many are very close and the order could be shuffled somewhat: Midlothian VA VA LaSalle Academy RI Burnt Hills NY North Shore NY Campolindo CA Warren CA Cathedral Cath CA Carmel IN Canandaigua NY Ward Melville NY Southlake Carroll TX Hidden Valley VA Bronxville NY Chiles FL Bishop Feehan MA Palatine IL Oak Ridge CA Harvard-Westlake CA Clovis North CA Fort Collins CA Oak Park CA Shadle Park WA Elk River MN
Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2009 seasonal speed ratings (sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I had to) ... Computer simulations require a decent sequential list of speed ratings for each runner - I have that for the NY and most CA runners, but others are a bit scarce at times (but so what, this is pre-season).