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Pre-Season XC 2010

BOYS Teams - National 2010

Bill Meylan (August 14, 2010)

Boys - Potential National Contenders

My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest ... This season I decided to post the list for the first time due to a number of inquiries (normally I limit these public pre-season projections to NY State) ... Some thoughts about the upcoming season are listed below.

Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank with respect to possible competition at the end of the season ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).

For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).

My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.

Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2010 race results are what count - and the speed ratings I derive for them ...


 National GIRLS Teams

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2010

      School               State   Score  Region
      ------------------   -----   -----  ------
  1   American Fork          UT     290     SW
  1   Arcadia                CA     290     CA
  3   York                   IL     300     MW
  4   Columbus North         IN     305     MW
  4   Trabuco Hills          CA     305     CA
  6   The Woodlands          TX     330     SO
  6   Christian Brothers Ac  NJ     330     NE
  6   North Central          WA     330     NW
  9   Dana Hills             CA     340     CA
  9   Loyola CA              CA     340     CA
  11  Albuquerque Acad       NM     350     SW
  11  Warwick Valley         NY     350     NY
  13  Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     360     NY
  14  Oak Park River Forest  IL     365     MW
  14  Glendora               CA     365     CA
  16  Crater                 OR     370     NW
  17  West Windsor Plain-N   NJ     380     NE
  17  Belvidere North        IL     380     MW
  17  Claremont              CA     380     CA
  17  Valencia               CA     380     CA
  21  Shaker                 NY     390     NY
  22  Marcus                 TX     400     SO
  22  Granite Hills          CA     400     CA
  22  Wayzata                MN     400     Heart
  22  Pembroke               MA     400     NE
  22  Birmingham             CA     400     CA
  22  Eden Praire            MN     400     Heart
  28  Eisenhower WA          WA     410     NW
  28  Palos Verdes           CA     410     CA
  28  Blacksburg             VA     410     SE
  28  Alhambra               AZ     410     SW

    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order 
      could be shuffled somewhat:

          Burnsville MN               Heart
          Parkview GA                 SE
          West Linn OR                NW
          Noblesville IN              MW
          Bellarmine                  CA
          North Rockland              NY
          Trinity Prep FL             SE
          Saugus                      CA
          Midlothian VA               SE
          Rancho Cucamonga            CA
          O'Fallon IL                 MW
          Altoona PA                  NE
          Orland Park (Sandburg) IL   MW
          Moorhead MN                 Heart
          Terre Haute North IN        MW

Some Thoughts About the List ... Initially, I thought the New York teams would be ranked a bit lower, so I was a bit hesitant to spend time generating this list ... But the numbers are consistent enough to rank three NY teams in the top 21.

To be perfectly honest and blunt, this is my conclusion ... The NY teams rank decently nation-wise because the rest of the nation simply does not appear be that great entering the season.

In contrast to the girls, there are no boy's teams "heads-and-shoulders" above the others (on the girl's side, FM, Saratoga and Saugus enter the season significantly ahead of the other girl's teams) ... The number do place a few boys' teams ahead, but there are questions concerning these teams.

American Fork UT is slightly the top number-rated team ... American Fork UT brings back 5 of the top 6 from last year's NXN where they finished 8th ... However, their speed numbers from NXN (180, 179, 178, 176, 171) will be equaled or exceeded by a bunch of teams by the end of the season, so I believe this team will need to improve to have a decent chance to win NXN.

Arcadia CA finished a disappointing 20th at last year's NXN ... Like many California teams, they show excellent speed through the CA State Meet, but then that speed does not translate completely at Portland Meadows ... Until results show otherwise, I have that concern about all California teams.

Columbus North IN gets ranked highly on this list because they raced very fast at the Indiana State Meet and then finished 4th at the NXN-Midwest Regional ... However, their NXN regional race was not nearly as good as the State meet (which is a big concern) and the Midwest region is very strong annually ... Without a top performance at the NXN regional, they could be sitting home again (interesting statement considering they are #4 in the pre-season list ... That's how close all of this could be).

York IL and The Woodlands TX rate highly because .... they always rate highly come the end of the season.

Making this list required a lot of guesses ... Slight changes in some guesses could switch some teams a lot ... For example, if I assume the #4 and #5 runners for West Windsor Plains-North will be a bit better than guessed, then WWPN will jump up a lot (having the two Rosas is a nice advantage).

Some team may emerge as a real national leader during the season ... But entering the 2010 XC season, the national boy's race seems wide open.